L'intérêt à découvert pour Vanguard S&P 500 ETF donne aux investisseurs une idée du degré auquel les investisseurs parient sur la baisse de l'action de Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Les données sur l'intérêt à découvert sont mises à jour toutes les deux semaines.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ARCA:VOO), Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

Technology

Financial Services

Consumer Cyclical

Healthcare

Industrials

Consumer Defensive

Communication Services

Energy

Utilities

Real Estate

Basic Materials

Other

The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poors 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

Microsoft Corp

Nvidia Corp.

Apple Inc

Amazon.Com Inc

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Alphabet  inc., Class A

Alphabet Inc Class C

Berkshire Hathaway Inc

Eli Lilly & Co.

Avago Technologi

Tesla Motors, Inc.

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.

Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF

Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF

Life has a way of throwing curveballs, such as divorce, career changes, and financial setbacks, and sometimes, it feels like you're back at square one.
But hitting the reset button in your 40s doesn't mean your <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/financial-advisors/24/04/38320795/in-your-50s-its-not-too-late-to-transform-your-financial-future-3-key-moves-t">financial future</a> is doomed. In fact, with thorough planning and disciplined <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44380933/investor-with-40000-portfolio-wonders-if-he-should-pick-dividend-investing-or-growth-first-would-you-prioritize-dividends-or-growth">investing</a>, it's possible to rebuild and even come out stronger than before.
For one Redditor, a 42-year-old facing a divorce and raising three kids, rebuilding financially seems like a tough challenge, but also an opportunity for a fresh start. With $250,000 to invest and a stable business generating between $90,000 and $120,000 per year on average, the investor is determined to turn things around.
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</ul>
&#8220;If you could invest from scratch, $250,000–how would you divide it up? It's almost a full-life restart, not ideal, but it is what it is. Would you put [Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/main#NYSE">MAIN</a>)​], [Gladstone Investment Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gain#NASDAQ">GAIN</a>)], [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schd#NYSE">SCHD</a>)], [JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepq#NASDAQ">JEPQ</a>)] into individual or [investment retirement account]? What others should I consider?&#8221; he asked.
The comment section of the post exploded with recommendations, with some Redditors advocating for simple, low-risk investments, and others suggesting aggressive growth strategies. Below, we break down the most relevant insights.
Trending: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How Would You Divide $250,000? Reddit Users Debate in the Comments</h2>
Keep It Simple and Low-Cost
There were plenty of comments that suggested the investor avoid financial advisors and instead invest in an S&amp;P index fund.
&#8220;I would not pay a financial advisor one penny, much less $1,500 per year + fees and %. It doesn&#8217;t take a financial advisor to invest in an S&amp;P 500 index fund, which is the simplest and one of the best investments for a 42-year-old, 22-year-old, 32-year-old, or 52-year-old,&#8221; a Redditor advised.
&#8220;If I had to start at 42&#8230; I would dump it all into an S&amp;P index growth fund and leave it be for about 15 years. At that point, I would look for opportunities to move it into dividends for income,&#8221; another comment says.
Also touching on the fact that he doesn&#8217;t need a financial advisor, this Reddit user mentioned a few assets he believes would help the poster meet his financial goals.
&#8220;Invest in only ETFs, no individual stocks. 75% in [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voo#NYSE">VOO</a>)], [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>)], or if you want some dividends, [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepi#NYSE">JEPI</a>)​], or [Alerian MLP ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amlp#NYSE">AMLP</a>)]. No need to pay anyone, just invest in S&amp;P 500 index funds,&#8221; he suggested.
See Also: The average American couple has saved this much money for retirement —<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/money/smartasset"> How do you compare</a>?
Mix Growth ETFs with Dividend Stocks
While the S&amp;P 500 was one of the most recommended strategies, many commenters suggested mixing growth with dividend ETFs for a balanced portfolio.
&#8220;If you want to retire in, say, 20 years, you need at least 3x if not 4x that $250,000. In addition to the S&amp;P 500 index, MAIN and GAIN look good. If I knew at 42 what I know now, I would have gone into individual growth stocks much earlier than I did, for those have been by far my best performers and would have been even better if I had gotten into them sooner,&#8221; a commenter suggested.
Mentioning that he also owns MAIN and GAIN, this Redditor recommended the poster split the $250,000 between a low-cost S&amp;P index fund, growth assets, and dividend-focused stocks: &#8220;If I were you, I&#8217;d invest the $250,000 in a low-cost S&amp;P index fund and start putting some money every month into an [investment retirement account]. I do own MAIN and GAIN outside of my retirement account&#8230; But I would go growth with your investments and maybe start adding in some dividend payers in your taxable account to diversify your income.&#8221;
&#8220;80% [Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schg#NYSE">SCHG</a>)], 20% SCHD,&#8221; another user suggested.
Read Next:
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<li>Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a></li>
<li>Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart &amp; Target – <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mode-mobile-2">Many are rushing to grab 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.26/share!</a></li>
</ul>

Small Cap

Personal Finance

AMLP

GAIN

JEPI

JEPQ

MAIN

SCHD

SCHG

42-Year-Old With $250K And A 'Failed Marriage, 3 Kids' Faces A Full Life Restart – 'How Would You Divide It Up?' Reddit Explodes With Advice

Without realizing it, you're trying to time the market, and losing.
Afraid to invest because you think the markets are going down?
You're subconsciously trying to time the market.
Here's why that's a terrible idea (backed by evidence):
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="465" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02160147/image.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-9617" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02160147/image.jpeg 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02160147/image-300x149.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/02160147/image-768x382.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
This bar chart shows the results of investing $2,000/yr over the last 20 years.
As you'd expect, investors with perfect timing each year had the greatest returns.
Whereas people holding cash had the lowest.
However, it's the middle section of the chart that I find interesting.
If you invest on the first of each year for 20 years, you'd only perform marginally worse than the investor with perfect timing.
Specifically, you'd only have $12,645 in fewer returns.
But let's say you got unlucky every single year when investing $2,000.
You'd only be $32,264 behind the investor with perfect timing.
Which over the span of 20 years isn't bad.
Besides, you're almost certainly not going to buy the lowest point each year for 20 years.
So don't worry if the market is going to crash or not.
With the right time horizon, it's numerically insignificant.
Based on this chart, the only way to lose is if you don't invest whatsoever.
Cash in the bank is losing value each year.
So there's no reason to be scared.
Just invest and enjoy life.
&#x2A;&#x2A;
Hey there!
Welcome to the WOLF Financial Newsletter.
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Equities

Long Ideas

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Opinion

Markets

Trading Ideas

ETFs

General

Timing The Market Is A Terrible Idea - Here's Why...

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="461" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9349" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1.jpg 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1-300x148.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1-768x378.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
<a href="https://earningshub.com/earnings-calendar/this-week?utm_source=marketmadness-newsletter.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=the-argentina-american-similarity" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">This Week's Earnings Calendar</a>
In November 2023, Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina, running as a libertarian and securing a decisive victory. An economist by background, Milei campaigned on promises of aggressive economic reform, vowing to cut government spending and deregulate the economy.
His first year in office was marked by sweeping changes. He slashed government expenditures, eliminated entire departments, and famously declared "afuera, afuera, afuera" as he cut bureaucracy. Initially, these policies led to economic turmoil, but Argentina soon experienced what's known as a J-curve recovery—where short-term pain gives way to rapid economic gains. Inflation has stalled, and the Argentine stock market is up 98% over the past year.
This turnaround raises a fascinating question: Could the U.S. be on a similar path under D.O.G.E. and Trump? Elon Musk and Treasury Secretary Bessent have described America's current state as a "detox," echoing the challenges Argentina faced early in Milei's presidency. Like Milei, D.O.G.E. has prioritized cutting government spending and has floated the idea of eliminating certain departments.
Of course, the U.S. economy is far larger and more complex than Argentina's, but the similarities are striking. Milei and Musk have developed a strong relationship, and Argentina's fiscal overhaul seems to have inspired elements of D.O.G.E.&#8217;s economic approach. If the U.S. is indeed following a J-curve trajectory, today's economic uncertainty may ultimately lead to a stronger, more resilient economy.
Change is never easy, and economic restructuring comes with resistance. But history suggests that in moments of disruption, those who stay patient often benefit the most.
My advice? Focus on the positive and keep an optimistic outlook.
&#x2A;&#x2A;
Welcome to the WOLF Financial Newsletter.
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Market Summary

Emerging Markets

Emerging Market ETFs

Is US Taking Cues From Argentina's Bold Reforms That Sparked A Market Rally?

Many investors start their journey toward financial security with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44486348/58-year-old-with-3m-portfolio-makes-bold-retirement-move-i-want-to-test-it-out-before-i-actually-retire-with-1m-in-dividend-stocks">stocks</a>, and a successful investing strategy involves considering the risks, adapting, and thinking about the long-term rewards.
For some, a well-balanced <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44519403/a-new-investor-shares-his-dividend-portfolio-that-earns-206-year-on-reddit-wondering-if-this-is-a-solid-set-up">portfolio</a> contains stocks, bonds, and small-cap investments, while for others, a mix of international stocks and ETFs is a favorite approach since it offers broader diversification. Either way, a combo of these assets ensures both growth and protection against a market downturn and is a great strategy for those unwilling to risk their money unnecessarily.
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</ul>
A 30-year-old investor with a $65,000 portfolio has taken to Reddit to ask how to strike that balance in his portfolio. Primarily invested in Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), he also holds individual stocks like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Alphabet (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>, GOOGL)), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), but plans to exit them soon.
&#8220;I am planning to change the composition moving forward and adding [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vxus#NASDAQ">VXUS</a>)] (International exposure ETF), [iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ijr#NYSE">IJR</a>)] (Small-cap stocks ETF), and [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: BND] (Bonds exposure) along with my VOO and QQQ. I like it boring for my risk profile,&#8221; he said.
The poster&#8217;s main goal is long-term growth, but he&#8217;s open to feedback on improving diversification and managing risk. The r/Portfolios community has shared its thoughts in the comments, so let&#8217;s see those.
Trending: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/are-you-rich">Are you rich?</a> Here&#8217;s what Americans think you need to be considered wealthy.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How to Diversify a $65,000 Portfolio? Reddit Debates Possible Low-Risk Options</h2>
Overexposure to Large-Cap Growth Stocks Isn&#8217;t a Good Idea
Several Redditors pointed out that VOO and QQQ heavily overlap, meaning the investor&#8217;s portfolio is not as diversified as he thinks.
&#8220;You&#8217;re just long all the same s&#8211;t, large-cap equities. You want multiple return streams in case large-cap equities have a drawdown. If you work a job, own a house, and own equities, you are triple long on the same bet that would destroy you as all are affected by a recession,&#8221; a commenter says.
A Redditor pointed out that a mix of large-cap stocks isn&#8217;t a complete retirement portfolio, and suggested other assets to balance it.
&#8220;Large-cap U.S. stocks can be a great investment, but they&#8217;re not a complete retirement portfolio. Other assets should be included, such as smaller-cap U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds,&#8221; the Redditor wrote.
While not against big tech, this commenter recommended the poster add non-tech exposure in his portfolio.
&#8220;I don't see picking high-quality companies that are in the index as redundant, you're overweighting the highest quality companies in the index and which drive its returns. I would look for maybe one high-quality non-big tech name. I love the credit rating agencies (S&amp;P and [Moody's (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/mco#NYSE">MCO</a>)]), but there are others, the three large credit card companies too,&#8221; he said.
See Also: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.</a>
Stick to Index Funds
Many advised the investor to drop the individual stocks he holds since they're already covered in VOO and QQQ, creating unnecessary concentration.
&#8220;Remove all redundancies and focus on VOO (almost everything you own is in VOO),&#8221; a Reddit user suggested.
&#8220;Good that you&#8217;re making an effort to invest, but there&#8217;s a lot of redundancy here. The Mag 7 already makes up a huge portion of VOO, why do you feel that you need to be even more extended in those stocks? If you really want to stock-pick on the side, I&#8217;d recommend focusing on lesser-known stocks (not penny stocks) that aren&#8217;t heavily weighted in the S&amp;P 500 (preferably not in it at all),&#8221; a commenter advised.
Reinforcing the idea that stock-picking isn&#8217;t adding value if the stocks are already in the ETF he has, this Redditor suggested the poster go all in in VOO or diversify more.
&#8220;I&#8217;d diversify some. VOO's major holdings are already included in the individual stocks you're holding. Might as well go more into VOO (and keep [Amazon (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)] if you&#8217;re still really bullish on them),&#8221; he said.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li>Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a></li>
<li>Inspired by Uber and Airbnb &#8211; Deloitte's fastest-growing software company is transforming 7 billion smartphones into income-generating assets &#8211; <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mode-mobile-2">with $1,000 you can invest at just $0.26/share!</a></li>
</ul>

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

VXUS

30-Year-Old With $65K In Stocks Sparks Debate – 'Focusing Mostly On ETFs' But Now Betting On Bonds, Small Caps, And International Plays

Roth IRAs allow you to save money on taxes while growing your portfolio, but what you put in your retirement account determines how much it will grow over time. You can get started with ETFs, and that's the direction a 47-year-old Redditor is heading.
A Redditor recently <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1jkg9wf/finally_opening_a_roth_voo_a_good_option/">posted in the Bogleheads subreddit</a> about opening a Roth IRA. The individual wants to go all-in on the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) or the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>). Commenters shared some valuable advice for the Redditor.
Don't Miss:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/are-you-rich">Are you rich?</a> Here&#8217;s what Americans think you need to be considered wealthy.</li>
<li>These five entrepreneurs are worth $223 billion –<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/arrived-homes-private-credit-fund"> they all believe in one platform that offers a 7-9% target yield with monthly dividends</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Buy Multiple ETFs</h2>
Many of the commenters suggested allocating funds across <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-etfs">multiple ETFs</a> instead of going all-in on VOO or VTI. While putting all of your money into a single ETF is less risky than putting all of your funds into a single stock, it still has some risk.
For instance, some growth-oriented ETFs can deliver much higher returns than VOO during bullish markets. Having some money in VOO, VTI, and a few ETFs that can outperform them can lead to higher returns.&nbsp;
The great thing about these ETFs is that most of them have low expense ratios. Vanguard is known for having some of the lowest expense ratios in the industry. That allows you to keep a higher percentage of your total returns.
Trending: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consider Your Risk Tolerance</h2>
One of the top comments came from a Redditor who asked the original poster to consider their risk tolerance before buying ETFs. The original poster is 47 years old, and that's important context.&nbsp;
If the Redditor is looking to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/11/42197331/suze-orman-says-to-have-at-least-3-to-5-years-of-cash-available-when-retired-heres-why">retire in five years</a>, they may not want to take as much risk. However, someone who is retiring in 20 years can still afford to take some extra risk. The commenter suggested some level of bond allocation but stated that only the original poster knows how much risk they can handle.&nbsp;
It's important for the Redditor to consider how they would react if their portfolio suddenly dropped by 10%-20%. Investors encounter many of these types of drops throughout their lifetimes.&nbsp;
Panic selling at the lows is often a bad strategy due to the stock market's long-term resilience. If the Redditor can set and forget their portfolio, it's easier to justify going deep into ETFs like VOO and VTI.
See Also: Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Diversify into Other Countries</h2>
One of the comments came from a Redditor who mentioned that only buying U.S. stocks is a single country risk. The commenter compares it to only buying stocks in a single sector instead of diversifying.
This commenter wasn't the only one who pointed to the importance of international stocks. One of the top comments suggested that the Redditor puts some of their money into the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VXUS#NASDAQ">VXUS</a>).&nbsp;
VXUS gives investors more exposure to international markets. Less than 10% of its assets are allocated toward North American stocks. The fund has a 0.05% expense ratio and has delivered an annualized 12.2% return over the past five years.&nbsp;
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/gbr-savings-by-age">If You're Age 35, 50, or 60: Here&#8217;s How Much You Should Have Saved Vs. Invested By Now</a></li>
<li>Can you guess how many retire with a $5,000,000 nest egg? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/5mil-nest-egg-adv">The percentage may shock you</a>.</li>
</ul>

Investor Considers 100% VOO or VTI for Roth – Reddit Weighs In On Bold Choice

March saw gold post a historic outperformance over U.S. equities, with the bullion on track to beat the S&amp;P 500 by its biggest margin in 13 years. Mounting concerns about trade tariffs, economic growth, and geopolitical instability drove the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">rotation into haven assets.</a>
Gold prices soared 9% in March, delivering their strongest monthly gain since July 2020, as the metal repeatedly notched fresh all-time highs throughout the month.
In contrast, the S&amp;P 500 tumbled 7.6%, creating a nearly 18-percentage-point performance gap—the widest monthly outperformance for gold over U.S. equities since August 2011. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Gold Notches Strongest 1-Month Leap Against S&amp;P 500</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-849317" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1536x793.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Investor appetite has mirrored the price action. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) saw inflows of $2.8 billion in March, building on February's $4 billion intake. 
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) witnessed a massive $18 billion in outflows—the heaviest drawdown since January 2024. However, while SPY bled capital, other S&amp;P 500 ETFs like the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) pulled in $6 billion and $21.6 billion, respectively.
"Investors have been adding gold to their portfolios to diversify, having shunned the precious metal in favor of tech stocks for many years," David Morrison, analyst at Trade Nation, said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is This The Start Of A Gold Supercycle?</h3>
While the rally may seem steep, some believe it's far from over. 
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, has been bullish on gold since mid-2024 and sees the metal hitting $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 in 2026.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven presented a scenario where gold could skyrocket even further.
In what the bank terms &#8220;tail-risk&#8221;—such as rising concerns about the Federal Reserve's political independence or questions around the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status—central banks could increase gold purchases to 110 tonnes per month. 
That type of demand pressure could drive up gold to $4,200 or even $4,500. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Q2 Outlook: What Seasonality, Technicals Tell Us</h3>
Looking ahead, the seasonality of gold provides a mixed picture. 
Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America, said that since 1975, gold has tended to trend flat in the second quarter. But over the past 10 years, Q2 has typically delivered a 3% gain from late April to late May, with the strongest week being April 4–11, during which gold has risen 0.9% on average.
Interestingly, an up March has often preceded a down June, with this sequence occurring 71% of the time. 
On equities, seasonal trends offer some hope. The S&amp;P 500 Index tends to post gains in the second quarter, averaging 2% into mid-June and 1% by quarter-end. April is often weak, but May brings recovery. 
From a technical perspective, Morrison also observed that gold is not as overbought now as it was six weeks ago, helping to ease concerns about a correction. 
"So far, profit-taking has led to shallow dips which have been met with fresh buying," he said. "But this only increases the probability that there will be a bigger pullback at some stage."
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 Image: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Macro Economic Events

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Gold Beats S&P 500 By Widest Margin Since 2011 As Tariff Fears Trigger Rush To Havens

Knowing which <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44376666/high-yield-dividend-investor-making-12900-per-year-names-10-favorite-stocks-took-me-almost-3-years-to-get-to-this-point">stocks</a> to hold for the long term and which to sell before they drag down your portfolio is a challenge every investor faces at least once in their journey.
Some swear by the &#8220;buy and hold&#8221; strategy, while others advocate for constant rebalancing of a portfolio to mitigate <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44476778/author-says-dave-ramsey-is-completely-ignorant-of-sequence-of-returns-risk-questions-whether-1-million-is-really-enough-for-retirement">risk</a>. The issue becomes even more pronounced when a portfolio is heavily condensed in high-growth but volatile sectors like technology.
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One such investor recently took to Reddit to seek advice on his $14,228 portfolio, which includes tech giants like Tesla (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Amazon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)​, Alphabet (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>, GOOG)), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), alongside ETFs like Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), and even some crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>).
The poster is considering adding Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>) to his portfolio but is unsure if now is the right time. He&#8217;s also wondering whether to keep high-risk stocks like TSLA, COIN, and MSTR or shift to more stable assets and how to diversify his portfolio further.
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The Reddit community has come forward with plenty of advice in the comments; let&#8217;s see what they say.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hold or Sell? Investor With $14,000 Tech-Heavy Portfolio Ponders Diversification–Reddit Advises Him</h2>
Diversify into Other Sectors or Broader ETFs
Many Redditors indicated that the investor&#8217;s portfolio is way too concentrated in tech, which increases risk. Instead, they suggested reducing individual stock holdings and adding ETFs to gain exposure to other sectors.
&#8220;I am sure you know this, but VOO/QQQ includes all of the individual companies that you have the majority of your portfolio invested in,&#8221; a comment says.
Advising the poster to diversify his portfolio, one Redditor suggested choosing either VOO or QQQ, but not both.
&#8220;You own good companies! Personally, I would choose one of the two VOO/QQQ not both, but that&#8217;s just me and is not really a big deal&#8230; Other than that, I like everything else; I think I own all of them, except COIN. Look into buying other sectors, you are too heavily concentrated on tech.&#8221;
A commenter advised the poster to add a broad-market ETF to reduce complexity and risk.
&#8220;Too complex for this volume, many duplicates and missing diversification. Just do VOO or an [MSCI (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msci#NYSE">MSCI</a>)] world index and that's it,&#8221; he wrote.
&#8220;VOO and QQQ are redundant and lend even more weight to the Mag 7. COIN, MSTR, TSLA, and NVDA are no-go long-term, I think. Try to add something more stable like [Raytheon Technologies (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/rtx#NYSE">RTX</a>)], [UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/unh#NYSE">UNH</a>)], or [The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ko#NYSE">KO</a>)],&#8221; a user suggested.
A Redditor recommended the investor add a mix of ETFs and stable dividend-paying stocks to improve the portfolio&#8217;s resilience.
&#8220;Continue with VOO, [Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqqm#NASDAQ">QQQM</a>)] only, and get some solid plays added from now on, diversify a bit. Can stick with ETFs or index, defense, utilities, energy, health care, precious metals, [Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B)], with the trade war, you need stuff that can survive. Look for some balance now with solid legacy names with dividends,&#8221; he wrote.
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Sell TSLA, COIN, and MSTR
The poster&#8217;s most controversial holdings were TSLA, COIN, and MSTR, and some commenters argued that he should get rid of them since they&#8217;re too risky for a 10-year hold.
&#8220;Sell the TSLA and take the win; it's overvalued dramatically,&#8221; a comment reads.
&#8220;I'd scrub TSLA and MSTR and put it in VOO or QQQ. Tesla's valuation is and has been insane forever, even after the sell-off. The fundamentals are just awful for its valuation. And that's not even dipping into political stuff. Plus, it's already a decent weight in VOO anyway. And MSTR is straight-up junk,&#8221; a Redditor said.
This user also suggested selling the three stocks, saying, &#8220;I would personally remove MSTR, COIN, and TSLA and buy more of QQQ/VOO.&#8221;
&#8220;Get rid of TSLA before it wrecks your portfolio!&#8221; another comment reads.
One Redditor shared he would never hold MSTR for the long term, and suggested HOOD instead of COIN.
&#8220;No way I would hold MSTR for 10 years. You are playing crypto with COIN; in my opinion, HOOD is the better bet now that they are getting into the higher-margin gambling business. If you want Bitcoin exposure, buy [iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ibit#NASDAQ">IBIT</a>)].
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$14K Investor In TSLA, NVDA, And QQQ Faces Dilemma – 'Looking To Hold For At Least 10 Years' But Is That A Recipe For Disaster? Reddit Debates

Investing can feel like walking a tightrope for some, especially if they are not enjoying <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44402198/aggressive-trader-with-nearly-1m-in-play-bets-big-on-market-drop-what-if-we-dont-get-there-reddit-debates-his-high-risk-strategy">high-risk</a> bets. For many investors, the dream is to grow their money steadily and reliably so they won&#8217;t be kept at night worrying about market crashes.
That&#8217;s why so many risk-averse investors turn to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/02/43897884/dividend-investor-making-5-000-per-month-with-632-000-reveals-portfolio-it-takes-time-but-its-doable">dividend</a> assets, be it stocks or ETFs. Dividend-focused holdings offer a tangible return while still providing possible growth in the long run. Still, even within this safer zone of investing, choices can be daunting.
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That is exactly what a Reddit user is faced with. The investor has done his homework, comparing two popular ETFs, Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHD#NYSE">SCHD</a>), and found that their performance is 97% correlated.
&#8220;After carefully doing a correlation function against SCHD, the results were 97% correlation (same market directions) for the last 5 years. Buying SCHD will double my quarterly income by almost 2x more than VOO. But then again, 3+ years has a higher percentage gain for VOO over SCHD. I know the underlying assets are different between these ETFs and the fee is lower in favor of VOO. What would you do?&#8221; he wrote.
He aims to generate $1,000 per month in dividend income and he's also cautious about locking the funds away in tax-deferred accounts, preferring to have control over his investments. The investor is also holding Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QYLD#NASDAQ">QYLD</a>)​ but says it doesn&#8217;t have great growth, so he&#8217;s wondering which of the two ETFs he should go with.
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The Reddit community has shared insights and advice in the comments, so let&#8217;s analyze them.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">VOO Vs. SCHD: Where to Invest $50,000?</h2>
Why Not Both?
Many Redditors argued that since both ETFs are highly correlated but serve slightly different purposes, splitting the investment between the two makes sense.
&#8220;Split the total investment between both and just enjoy the gains and that you aren&#8217;t putting everything into just one ETF,&#8221; a Reddit user suggested.
A commenter pointed out that investing in both ETFs will secure the poster&#8217;s portfolio because, if one ETF goes down, he has the other as backup.
&#8220;If one sector of the market does poorly, you can rely on the other for growth. If done right, both would still pay in dividends, you&#8217;ll just have good growth overall. Plus, if for whatever reason you need to liquidate the asset in the poor-performing market sector, you&#8217;ll have the backup,&#8221; he said.
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SCHD All The Way
Most commenters in the thread pushed for SCHD as the better choice, especially since the investor mentioned he's focused on generating dividend income.
&#8220;Just go with SCHD. There are YouTube videos out there that cover the long-term results of all these different funds and even compare them. SCHD blows the others away,&#8221; a user wrote.
&#8220;SCHD over VOO any day,&#8221; another suggestion reads.
A Redditor recommended the poster go with VOO if he&#8217;s looking at the total returns, but if he&#8217;s focused on dividends, he should choose SCHD.
&#8220;If the goal is total return, I&#8217;d go with VOO; if the goal is dividend income, I&#8217;d go with SCHD,&#8221; he said.
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Consider Alternative Holdings
While most comments revolved around SCHD and VOO, several Redditors mentioned alternative assets, both high-yield plays and growth-oriented holdings.
&#8220;Have you considered [AG Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: MITT] or QYLD? Both these stocks have double-digit dividends,&#8221; a commenter asked.
&#8220;I'd do like 30/40 in VOO or SCHD and the rest in [Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vgt#NYSE">VGT</a>)] or [Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vug#NYSE">VUG</a>)],&#8221; a piece of advice reads.
A Redditor suggested selling covered calls rather than investing in VOO and SCHD.
&#8220;I am all in [Microsoft (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)] and I have no problems with it. I sell MSFT calls monthly. You&#8217;d probably get better yield going all in on [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>)] and writing calls there rather than splitting between VOO and SCHD,&#8221; he said.
Sharing his favorite assets to buy, this commenter highlighted the dividend income he receives from his holdings.
&#8220;I have $50,000 in QYLD. The monthly dividend is over $500 every single month. The bulk and rest of my s&#8211;t is in [​Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vti#NYSE">VTI</a>)]. Then, I'm buying [Realty Income Corporation (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/o#NYSE">O</a>)], [Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)], VUG, [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepi#NYSE">JEPI</a>)], [iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/mtum#NYSE">MTUM</a>)], [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xlf#NYSE">XLF</a>)], [Kinder Morgan (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/kmi#NYSE">KMI</a>)] (since it dropped so much, how could I not?), [Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amd#NASDAQ">AMD</a>)], and [Apple (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)],&#8221; he wrote.
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AAPL

MTUM

QYLD

Reddit In Chaos As Investor With $50K Faces Huge ETF Dilemma – 'I Prefer A Nice Dividend With Overall Steady Growth,' But Is VOO The Answer?

Getting started with investing can feel exciting, but it's also normal to have a lot of questions. A 20-year-old university student recently <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1jj3t5r/completely_new_to_this_sub_20_year_old_in_uni_how/">posted in the Dividends subreddit</a>, asking for some advice on how to get started.&nbsp;
The Redditor has saved a decent amount of money and is ready to commit to dividend investing. The original poster has been monitoring current trends and has some market knowledge. Some people left their comments on the best way to start investing.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Start with Growth ETFs</h2>
One commenter suggested that the 20-year-old start with a growth position like the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) instead of committing to dividend stocks. While dividend stocks are valuable for many portfolios, most dividend-paying companies are mature firms that lag the stock market. It's more common for investors who are approaching retirement to buy blue-chip dividend stocks that offer lower volatility and higher cash flow.
Meanwhile, young investors usually gravitate toward growth stocks and ETFs. Younger investors can take more risks, but you still have to assess your financial situation and risk tolerance before constructing a portfolio.
Granted, the Redditor can still have a mix of growth ETFs and dividend ETFs. However, the growth ETF is likely to outperform. Furthermore, the Redditor has a lot of time to ride market uncertainties and see the returns compound.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Set It and Forget It</h2>
Another commenter encouraged the 20-year-old student to buy stocks and forget about them. Dividend investing requires a long-term focus, and cash flow goes up with each reinvestment and contribution.&nbsp;
Some investors panic during market corrections and sell their shares, hoping to limit the damage. However, it's important to keep a long-term perspective and assess companies by their intrinsic value instead of their market prices.&nbsp;
Dividend investors can retire on their cash flow if they stick with it for decades. Annual contributions, dividend reinvestments, and dividend hikes all lead to higher cash flow. Just as a snowball builds momentum as it rolls down a hill, your dividend portfolio can build momentum each year if you set it and forget it.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Look at Dividend Aristocrats and the Dogs of the Dow</h2>
The same commenter who recommended that the Redditor "set it and forget it" also recommended dividend aristocrats and dogs of the Dow. Dividend aristocrats are publicly traded corporations that have hiked their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. These companies tend to give out reliable dividend payouts and continue to raise them each year.
The Dogs of the Dow refers to the 10 Dow Jones stocks with the highest yields. This investment strategy involves equally distributing your cash across each of these 10 stocks. The Dogs of the Dow are currently out of favor among investors, but advocates of this strategy will argue that they are undervalued.&nbsp;
However, you still have to do your research to verify if you believe these stocks present a good buying opportunity. A high yield does not always mean that a dividend stock presents a good buying opportunity.
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20-Year-Old University Student Wants Help with Buying Dividend Stocks: "What's the best way to start?" Reddit Weights In.

<ul>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>WAR</li>
<li>MSTR</li>
<li>VOO</li>
<li>OKLO</li>
<li>CORN</li>
<li>LUNR</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

CORN

LUNR

OKLO

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of March 25, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="608" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/24190857/image-3-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8732" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/24190857/image-3-3.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/24190857/image-3-3-300x178.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/24190857/image-3-3-768x456.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Like most people who invest in the stock market,&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/e6387aa2-82ff-4dd2-9814-86e06133b793?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">I too get nervous</a>&nbsp;when prices are going down. When the selling gets protracted, muscle knots sometimes form in my neck and upper back.
To cope, I do my best to remember that history teaches us&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/1aa68593-46f6-4a1a-9c76-41d16ac5f68f?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">big sell-offs are what stock market investing is all about</a>, and that the path to long-term riches in the stock market is riddled with&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/5cd2abf2-fdff-4bd6-b8be-3c59648ce345?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">stomach-churning volatility</a>. And importantly, "<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/1cf7e134-353d-4615-ac72-6b89781bc676?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">time in the market beats timing the market</a>."
With that said, let me tell you about a recent personal experience that confirmed to me that I'm the unluckiest market timer I know.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">I bought the top, again&nbsp;<img decoding="async" src="https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/e/notoemoji/16.0/1f926_1f3fb_200d_2642_fe0f/72.png" alt="&#x1f926;&#x1f3fb;&#x200d;&#x2642;&#xfe0f;" /></h2>
I consider myself&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/c2cb664a-bcf0-4410-9659-c494ebcbc572?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">lucky in many ways</a>&nbsp;— except when it comes to&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/12744d3f-3d5d-478a-a134-9d8785675148?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">timing the stock market</a>.
To be clear,&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/12744d3f-3d5d-478a-a134-9d8785675148?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">I do not trade actively much at all</a>. But on rare occasions outside of regular periodic contributions to my retirement accounts, I've had the good fortune of having some extra cash to put to work.
I recently had one of those occasions.
<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/8a1e13d7-35a9-491c-a967-2b61d3d5e7ae?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">On Feb. 13,</a>&nbsp;I met with my accountant to do my 2024 tax returns. I learned I&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/505d844c-d9ea-42ad-bf7a-9384f1320dda?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">had some room</a>&nbsp;to lower my taxable income. And one of the actions I took was contributing more to my&nbsp;<a href="https://substack.com/redirect/ac005e49-5ff5-4ece-8231-185fc096dd11?j=eyJ1IjoiNThoaTNqIn0.oQOskqZ_hj7KyeETRBdER4rAvQcgl0VTn-sq5tqKUD0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">self-employed 401(k) plan</a>.
Wasting no time, I transferred cash to that account. And on Feb. 18, I added to my S&amp;P 500 index fund position. The trade confirmation came in on Feb. 19.
<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dfa464e-b67f-4158-b549-c026c57652b5_2060x868.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dfa464e-b67f-4158-b549-c026c57652b5_2060x868.png" alt="" /></a></figure>
Coincidentally, Feb. 19 was when the S&amp;P 500 last touched a record high before rapidly tumbling into the correction we are living today.
<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf6e634b-fe7e-4aae-8a36-582352c8c633_1416x832.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf6e634b-fe7e-4aae-8a36-582352c8c633_1416x832.png" alt="" /></a><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Source: Yahoo Finance)</figcaption></figure>
This was not a small amount of money I put to work.
Was it poorly timed? Yes.
Was it a mistake? No.
You're probably thinking that I should've&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/dollar-cost-average-stock-market-crash">dollar-cost-averaged</a>&nbsp;into the market.
I actually already engage in dollar-cost averaging because of the way my income comes in. But on these unusual occasions, I prefer to make lump sum purchases. I still have 20-30 years until retirement, so I'm not much of a "<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/149918212/the-myth-of-cash-on-the-sidelines">cash on the sidelines</a>" kind of guy. Also, I've read Nick Maggiulli's piece "<a href="https://ofdollarsanddata.com/dollar-cost-averaging-vs-lump-sum/">Dollar Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum</a>," so I understand the kind of risk I'm taking.
I signed up for this.
And now I'm living&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/42137695/you-can-get-smoked-in-the-short-term">TKer Stock Market Truth No. 2</a>: You can get smoked in the short-term.Subscribe
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Time is the unlucky market timer's best friend &#x23f1;&#xFE0F;</h2>
This is not the first time I found myself with some cash to put to work.
As I wrote in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/weekly-trades-market-timing">March 6, 2022 TKer</a>, I faced similar situations in late 2015 and late 2021. Both times, I made lump sum purchases into S&amp;P 500 index funds.
And both times, those purchases were almost immediately followed by steep sell-offs.
The 2015 purchase happened while the S&amp;P was on the precipice of a 14% correction. The 2021 purchases happened right as the market was entering a bear market, which saw the S&amp;P fall 25% before&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/bull-market-june-2023">bottoming in October 2022</a>.
I am literally the unluckiest market timer I know.
<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F786e7761-e38f-4cf6-b25b-e02a28955bd4_3196x2054.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F786e7761-e38f-4cf6-b25b-e02a28955bd4_3196x2054.png" alt="" /></a><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">That's a younger me.</figcaption></figure>
Fortunately, my full-time job is researching the data and writing about having exposure to stocks during the market's ups and downs. It's helped me keep my investment decisions very informed.
I also have a carefully thought-out personalized financial strategy that takes into account the risk of big drawdowns. Importantly, I have a time horizon that allows me to ride out the downturns as I build wealth for the long run.
Thanks to having good financial information and a good financial plan, I held on.
And today, those older very&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/weekly-trades-market-timing">poorly timed trades</a>&nbsp;are in the black, and they're helping me get closer to achieving my long-term financial goals.
The S&amp;P 500 is up about 170% since my late 2015 purchase.
<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F44483798-269d-456e-9bea-2354f58ea50d_1416x830.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F44483798-269d-456e-9bea-2354f58ea50d_1416x830.png" alt="" /></a><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Source: Yahoo Finance)</figcaption></figure>
And it's up about 20% since my late 2021 and early 2022 purchases.
<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F337aa45e-51ad-4de0-9079-1c51738eb6d0_1406x882.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F337aa45e-51ad-4de0-9079-1c51738eb6d0_1406x882.png" alt="" /></a><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Source: Yahoo Finance)</figcaption></figure>
As Bespoke's Paul Hickey&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/best-investment-advice-time">says</a>: "Time heals in the markets."
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Timing the market like Warren Buffett &#x1f46f;&#x200d;&#x2640;&#xfe0f;</h2>
<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/warren-buffett-berkshire-meeting-market-timing">Like billionaire investor Warren Buffett</a>, I don't claim to be good at timing the stock market. (Buffett receives praise for writing a widely circulated op-ed titled "Buy American" during the global financial crisis. Though, he published it in Oct. 2008 before the S&amp;P fell another 26%.)
Fortunately, you don't have to be a good market timer to be a successful investor. You just have to be able to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/best-investment-advice-time">put in the time</a>.
Investing in the stock market will&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-down-days-drawdowns-down-years-normal">continue to be an unpleasant process</a>&nbsp;as we cope with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/weekly-short-term-cautious-long-term-optimist">two conflicting realities</a>: In the long-run, the stock market usually goes up; but in the short-run, anything and everything can go very badly.
As you do your best to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-performance-after-down-days">keep your emotions in check</a>, I suggest you remember the lessons from history. You can read all about them in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/t/stock-market">TKer's archives</a>.

The Unluckiest Market Timer I Know Made Another Poorly Timed Trade

Heading into 2025, there was a wave of optimism fueled by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under the newly elected Trump administration. But that sentiment quickly wavered. Just one week in, President Trump made unexpected comments about tariffs, raising early concerns.
At first, markets brushed it off. The S&amp;P 500 even reached an all-time high, as many investors assumed the tariff rhetoric was simply a negotiation tactic rather than a serious policy shift. However, as the tariff talk continued, uncertainty began to take hold. Then, on February 20th, a sharply negative consumer sentiment report shifted the tone entirely—suggesting that consumers feared inflation could make a comeback. That report marked the start of a 10% market correction.
Consumer sentiment is known as a "leading indicator," offering a glimpse into potential future economic trends. It's considered "soft data" because it's survey-based, rather than grounded in concrete figures like employment or CPI. Normally, consumer confidence offers valuable insight &#8211; but in today's deeply polarized political climate, its reliability is more questionable.
The most alarming data point in the report was inflation expectations, which came in at around 4%. Markets reacted swiftly—stocks dropped. Interestingly, political affiliation significantly influenced the responses: Republicans expected 0% inflation, while Democrats expected 7%. Because Democrats made up the majority of respondents, the headline number was skewed higher.
It's a bit ironic that such a politically tinged report helped trigger the correction. Despite market reactions, hard economic data hasn't shown drastic weakness. While tariffs may slow the economy, I don't see enough evidence for the kind of inflation surge or sustained weakness the soft data suggests. For now, we remain in a "wait and see" economy.
My advice? Focus on the positive and keep an optimistic outlook.
&#x2A;&#x2A;
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Government

No Drastic Weakness In Economic Data Despite Market Correction

Diversification is the foundation of sound <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44438885/charlie-munger-told-a-20-year-old-that-getting-rich-through-investing-is-damn-near-impossible-and-you-might-need-10-million-in-the-bank">investing</a>, often described as the only &#8220;free launch&#8221; in finance. By spreading investments across various assets and sectors, investors can mitigate risk and grow their money at the same time.
Enter the world of ETFs, which are a great way to achieve <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44379640/looking-beyond-big-tech-where-to-find-diversification-without-sacrificing-growth">diversification</a>. Broad-market ETFs like Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>)​ offer exposure to a wide range of companies, while sector-specific or dividend-oriented ETFs like Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHD#NYSE">SCHD</a>) provide more targeted strategies. The key is to align investments with long-term goals, tax considerations, and risk tolerance.
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In a recent Reddit post, a high-income earner shared his financial circumstance and sought advice on how to invest a considerable amount of money. The poster has maxed out his tax-advantaged accounts, holds $75,000 in VOO, and now has an additional $150,000 to put into the market, along with the ability to contribute $3,000 or more per month. His goal is to retire in 20 years, so he wants to diversify beyond his current holdings.
&#8220;I definitely want to diversify. I think the AI/Mag7 are due for a correction. I want to have some [ex-U.S.] investments as well. We can invest $3,000+ each month, so we&#8217;re slow and steady, not trying to moonshot anything. But ~20 years is when we want to retire (quite a lot younger than average),&#8221; he wrote.
The investor&#8217;s main question was how to allocate his windfall and what monthly contributions he and his wife should make to achieve long-term growth while keeping risks low and avoiding unnecessary taxes. The Reddit community has shared insights and suggestions in the comments, so let&#8217;s analyze them.
Trending: It&#8217;s no wonder Jeff Bezos holds over $250 million in art — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">this alternative asset has outpaced the S&amp;P 500 since 1995, delivering an average annual return of 11.4%. Here&#8217;s how everyday investors are getting started.</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Where Should the Investor Allocate $150,000 and $3,000/Monthly? Redditors Share Insights</h2>
Stick with Broad-Market ETFs for Long-Term Growth
Many users suggested doubling down on broad-market ETFs like VOO, pointing out their simplicity, diversification, and historical performance.
&#8220;20 years? Yeah, dude, I'm a certified SCHD cult member and I would still go 100% VOO,&#8221; a Redditor said.
&#8220;This is the only answer. More VOO,&#8221; a comment reads.
A Reddit user mentioned that while SCHD is his favorite ETF, he recommends VOO because he&#8217;s certain it will surpass SCHD in the long run.
&#8220;I mean, SCHD is my favorite ETF, but my opinion is that VOO will outperform it over a 20-year period, and with far fewer tax implications. You obviously can just buy dividend-paying funds at or near retirement, especially if you prefer dividends and not selling stocks over the usual 4% rule,&#8221; he said.
A commenter also recommended the poster invest in VOO because broader diversification might complicate the whole investing journey.
&#8220;$150,000 of VOO. Don&#8217;t overcomplicate it,&#8221; he wrote.
See Also: Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a>
Add International Exposure and Alternative Assets
Several community members advised the poster to diversify beyond the U.S. market by adding international ETFs or alternative assets to his portfolio.
&#8220;Here&#8217;s what I&#8217;d do: put 63% in VTI, put 27% in [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vxus#NASDAQ">VXUS</a>), put 7% in [WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/usfr#NYSE">USFR</a>)], put 3% in Bitcoin,&#8221; a Redditor suggested.
&#8220;If I'm managing someone else's money for 30 years, I'm probably doing something like: 60% VTI, 10% [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/brk-b#NYSE">BRK-B</a>)], 30% VXUS,&#8221; a comment reads.
A Redditor recommended allocating a portion of the portfolio to VXUS and BRK.B to diversify while minimizing risks.
&#8220;If you're looking at diversifying from what you have, you can add some VXUS (underperformed for decades but that might be changing?). BRK.B is basically a value ETF. You already hold a decent amount of it in VOO, but nothing wrong with adding a bit more Berkshire,&#8221; he wrote.
&#8220;BRK.B has been beating [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>)],&#8221; another comment says.
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BRK-B

USFR

High-Income Earner With $3,000+ Monthly To Invest Faces Big Decision – 'I Definitely Want To Diversify' Beyond AI And Dividends

President Donald Trump's election victory and the subsequent inauguration have shifted risk on markets such as equities and cryptocurrency. While several popular investment vehicles have plummeted, a few others have increased their returns dramatically. 
What happened: Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) is the world&#8217;s largest exchange-traded fund, with $620 billion in assets under management as of this writing. The fund tracks the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index, thereby acting as one of the most popular mediums for those looking to bet on the U.S. market.
However, since taking office, Trump&#8217;s aggressive tariff policies have tanked the stock market. Overhauling decades of free-trade agreements, the president placed <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44360564/trumps-tariffs-could-fuel-inflation-in-canada-mexico-warns-economic-expert">25% import duties</a> on goods from key trading partners such as Canada and Mexico, raising fears of a trade war and a <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44402617/ucla-anderson-issues-recession-watch-amid-trump-policy-concerns">slowdown in economic growth</a>.
As a result, ETFs like VOO have suffered significant losses. The stock has plummeted 1.8% since Trump's election victory on November 5, 2024, and more than 5% since his oath earlier in January.
See Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42735744/pharma-bro-martin-shkreli-predicts-doom-for-michael-saylors-microstrategy-as-stock-dips-below-300-in-after-hours-trading"> </a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/03/44390616/cathie-wood-believes-most-memecoins-wont-face-fearsome-declines-end-up-becoming-collectors-items">Cathie Wood Believes Most Memecoins Will Face &#8216;Fearsome Declines,&#8217; But They Could End Up Becoming Collector&#8217;s Items</a>
On the other hand, XRP (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/xrp/usd">XRP</a>), currently a $142 billion-valued cryptocurrency, has seen its fortunes soar after Trump's victory.&nbsp;
Several bullish catalysts have aided the coin&#8217;s progress, including the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42120607/gary-gensler-to-step-down-as-sec-chair-on-trumps-inauguration-day">departure </a>of previous SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the coin's <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44068814/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-rally-on-trumps-strategic-crypto-reserve-announcement-cardano-xrp-solana-skyrocket-analyst-says-btcs-new-ath-possible-later-in-the-month">inclusion</a> in a U.S. digital asset stockpile, and, eventually, the end of the <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/03/44398151/ripple-ceo-announces-victory-as-sec-drops-appeal-in-xrp-lawsuit">SEC&#8217;s enforcement</a> against Ripple Labs.
Since the election day, XRP has skyrocketed 388%.
So, if you invested $1000 in both assets, hoping to profit from Trump's presidency, the VOO bet would have reduced it to $982, while XRP would have seen it swell to $4,888.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Asset</td>
<td>Price (Recorded on Nov. 5, 2024)</td>
<td>Price (Recorded at 3:00 a.m. ET)</td>
<td>Gains +/-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>$530.10</td>
<td>$520.26</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>XRP</td>
<td>$0.5032</td>
<td>$2.46</td>
<td>+388.871%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Price Action: Shares of the Vanguard ETF closed 0.02% higher at $520.26 at Friday&#8217;s market close. 
The VOO stock exhibited a moderate momentum score as of this writing. You can check out some of the top momentum stocks at <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/screener/top-momentum-stocks">Benzinga's proprietary Edge Rankings</a>.
Image via Shutterstock
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If You Invested In VOO Stock And XRP Right After Trump's Election Victory, This Investment Would Have Made You Richer

Investors are often driven by the pursuit of massive <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/03/44378283/ralph-laurens-prospects-of-market-share-gains-margin-expansion-turns-this-analyst-bullish">gains</a> and few assets capture this ambition better than individual stocks–like Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>)–that have seen a meteoric climb.
For many, high returns from individual <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/03/44239013/retirement-investor-with-21-600year-in-dividends-needs-2-200-more-per-month-what-high-yield-stocks-w">stocks</a> and/or options trading are irresistible because such investments can turn a modest sum of money into life-changing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/02/43801235/paper-mill-worker-builds-1-7-million-fortune-through-investing-top-3-stocks-that-boosted-his-wealth">wealth</a>.
This is the case of a 32-year-old ex-military who made $700,000 in options trading but is unsure of what to do next. After hitting it big, the investor is wondering whether he should double down on high-risk strategies, or pivot to more stable, long-term investments, so he&#8217;s taken to Reddit to seek advice.
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With 4,200 shares of NVDA at a cost basis of $69 and $350,000 in cash, he is at a crossroads. His end goal is to preserve and grow his wealth while minimizing risk because he thinks his options trading run may be coming to an end. Still, he isn&#8217;t sure about what to do next.
&#8220;I was in the military but I started trading options and just did that for a few years. I think my run is at the end, though. Finishing school and getting a job now in the next year. I've been waiting for a pullback, unsure when to hop in. Kinda just wanna be done with it,&#8221; he wrote.
He asked whether he should put all his money in Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHD#NYSE">SCHD</a>), which is known for its focus on high-quality dividend-oriented stocks. The community offered plenty of suggestions so let&#8217;s analyze the comments and distill the most relevant advice below.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">$350,000 in SCHD? Reddit Assesses His Plan and Gives Suggestions</h2>
Avoid Putting All Your Money in One Asset
One of the most prevalent advice in the comments was to avoid putting all the money into a single investment–SCHD in this case–and diversify the portfolio into several assets.
&#8220;At age 32, I think you should consider a mix of SCHD, [Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schg#NYSE">SCHG</a>)], and perhaps [Schwab International Equity ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schf#NYSE">SCHF</a>)]. Perhaps 45/45/10 or 50/45/5,&#8221; a Redditor advised.
A commenter suggested the investor a mix of growth and dividend-paying investments, as well as international exposure.
&#8220;Personally though, I&#8217;d put $50,000 to $100,000 into ex-U.S. markets. [Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vymi#NASDAQ">VYMI</a>)], [Legg Mason International Low Volatility High Dividend ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lvhi#NASDAQ">LVHI</a>)], [Franklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/divi#NYSE">DIVI</a>)] are a few dividend-focused options,&#8221; he said.
Recommending a mix of individual stocks, ETFs, and dividend-paying assets, this Reddit user provided a detailed illustration of how diversification can be achieved in a portfolio.
&#8220;$50,000 [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voo#NYSE">VOO</a>)], $50,000 growth stocks like [Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)], NVDA, and others, $50,000 SCHD, $50,000 [JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepq#NASDAQ">JEPQ</a>)], $50,000 [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepi#NYSE">JEPI</a>)], $50,000 [Simplify Volatility Premium ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/svol#NYSE">SVOL</a>)], $50,000 ([Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pfe#NYSE">PFE</a>)], and other dividend stocks),&#8221; his suggestion reads.
&#8220;At 30, SCHG 50% VOO 50%,&#8221; another comment says.
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Consider Tax Efficiency and Long-Term Growth
Another recurring theme in the thread was the importance of tax efficiency and the possible drawbacks of focusing only on dividend income, with many Redditors suggesting that dividend-paying ETFs might not be the best option when it comes to taxes.
&#8220;Dumping $350,000 in there is a monumentally terrible idea. SCHD underperforms the S&amp;P 500 with dividends reinvested and not even counting the extra tax drag. You&#8217;d be creating more taxable income for yourself which is a terrible strategy. You want to minimize income and maximize net worth. Dumping all of your capital into something paying income is the opposite of what you should be doing,&#8221; a Reddit user wrote.
A Redditor suggested to the investor several other options that he says would yield more returns than SCHD.
&#8220;SCHD is a good fund, but is it best for you? With $350,000 invested, it will produce about $12,000 a year. Instead, $350,000 invested in [iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pff#NASDAQ">PFF</a>)] with a 6% yield, would earn you about $21,000 a year. Or you could invest in [business development companies] using [Putnam BDC Income ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pbdc#NYSE">PBDC</a>)] and earn $31,000. Or [NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqqi#NASDAQ">QQQI</a>)] with a 23% yield and earn $45,000,&#8221; the commenter said.
&#8220;SCHD 30%, VOO 20%, [Realty Income Corporation (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/o#NYSE">O</a>)] 14%, [PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pep#NASDAQ">PEP</a>)] 14%, [Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/epd#NYSE">EPD</a>)] 12%, [Ares Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/arcc#NASDAQ">ARCC</a>)] 10%,&#8221; a user recommended.
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32-Year-Old Investor With Massive NVDA Gains And $350K Cash Asks Reddit: 'What's Stopping Me From Putting It All In SCHD?'

Investing in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44376666/high-yield-dividend-investor-making-12900-per-year-names-10-favorite-stocks-took-me-almost-3-years-to-get-to-this-point">stocks</a> and funds is one of the most powerful ways to build <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/01/42773692/i-dont-want-you-to-invest-like-im-young-mark-cuban-reveals-how-he-protected-his-wealth-after-selling-his-first-company">wealth</a> over time, but choosing the right assets and strategy can be overwhelming, especially if you&#8217;re dealing with a large sum of money.
While some investors prefer high-risk, high-reward plays, others swear by the reliability of long-term holding. Besides individual stocks, ETFs have become a popular option for investors looking for long-term stability, thanks to their diversification, low costs, and ease of access.
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With $250,000 to invest and confused about which assets to buy, one Reddit user turned to the online discussion board to seek advice. The Redditor has no immediate need of that money, no wife, no kids, and a full-time job that leaves him with little time to dive deep into investment research.
His main goal is to maximize the returns in five to seven years but he&#8217;s unsure about the best approach to deploy his funds.
&#8220;I&#8217;ve also spoken with a few financial advisors and just wanted to get varying points of view. I don&#8217;t need this cash for 5-7 years. So maximum return on that timeframe I suppose?&#8221; he wrote.
The poster has mentioned a preliminary plan, which includes monthly investments into individual stocks and ETFs, such as NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>, GOOG)), Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHD#NYSE">SCHD</a>), and even cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
He&#8217;s also considering dollar-cost averaging around $12,000 monthly over the next 12 months, but isn&#8217;t sure about the best investment interval and whether his current allocation is too broad or too concentrated.
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Reddit has offered plenty of suggestions in the comments, so let&#8217;s dive into those.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">No Wife, No Kids, $250,000 to Invest and Little Time to Study Investing – Reddit Advises the Poster</h2>
Lump Sum Vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging
The thread has seen a debate between some users recommending investing the whole sum and those suggesting dollar-cost averaging. Some even suggested a hybrid approach.
&#8220;You can put half in now and then the rest over 6-12 months. A good compromise between lump sum and dollar-cost averaging,&#8221; a comment says.
A commenter mentioned the fact that he asked the same question about dollar-cost averaging vs. lump sum in another community on Reddit, and users have suggested he invests all the money at once.
&#8220;I asked this very question in the investing sub a week ago. Decided to hold off and, oh boy, am I glad I did. I&#8217;ll probably wait another week and reassess. By the way, in the other thread, people were posting stats about how you&#8217;re better off just putting everything in at once over [dollar-cost averaging]. A two in three chances you&#8217;ll be better off,&#8221; he said.
On the other hand, this Redditor advised the poster to ignore those suggesting him to go all in.
&#8220;Please. Ignore the lump sum advocates. Historically, it works out well 66% of the time. But that might not be in this time of unprecedented government incompetence and maliciousness,&#8221; the user wrote.
&#8220;[Dollar-cost averaging] is perfectly acceptable and "not timing the market" is not 100% foolproof. If Joseph Kennedy took your advice in 1929, there would be no Kennedy fortune, but because he was inspired to sell right before the crash, they preserved their wealth,&#8221; another comment reads.
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Balance Your Portfolio
The poster&#8217;s initial plan included allocations to a mix of ETFs, individual stocks, and cryptocurrency, and Redditors had diverse opinions on whether this type of diversification is a good approach.
&#8220;If I were entering the market now, I would go for a balanced exposure with some bonds in the mix (60/40 or 70/30 if you can really stomach the risk over 5 years), and avoid any single market concentration. The bond component of your portfolio would not be there to raise any potential returns (it likely won&#8217;t) but rather to minimize volatility over the 5-7 year period you indicated,&#8221; a commenter suggested.
&#8220;Don't put it all in VOO. Diversify,&#8221; another Redditor advised.
A comment pointed out that diversification should expand beyond equities and should include assets that offer a broader market exposure.
&#8220;Diversification should go beyond equities. Consider some other asset types to give you broader exposure. You can also weigh your contributions, they can vary based on metrics of your choosing,&#8221; the comment says.
&#8220;All in on stocks during the start of a trade war/recession/depression is moronic. [SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD] and Bitcoin/[iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ibit#NYSE">IBIT</a>)] are your friends for diversifying,&#8221; another diversification suggestion reads.
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No Wife, No Kids, $250K To Invest—'I Don't Need This Cash For 5-7 Years'—Reddit Battles Over The Best Long-Term Stock And ETF Strategy

In today&#8217;s fast-paced world, many want to build wealth and achieve long-term financial <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44146342/charlie-munger-said-he-was-passionate-about-getting-rich-but-not-because-i-wanted-ferraris-i-wanted-the-independence">independence</a>. Countless people dream of financially securing their future, and for many, that path is through investments in the stock market.
Yet, the path to financial independence is rarely straightforward, especially for those starting to invest later in life and have little to no knowledge of the <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44287485/peter-lynch-said-theres-always-something-to-worry-about-but-success-in-the-stock-market-depends-on-your-stomach-not-the-brain">stock market</a>, as is the case of one Reddit user.
The individual, a 38-year-old, shared his concerns in a Reddit community of investors. He said that he recently came across a substantial amount of money–$750,000 in cash–but has no other assets such as a house, no pension, and no investments.
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The poster is focused on long-term growth and is seeking advice on how to invest his newly acquired money wisely. He is also cautious about the current market volatility and is wondering whether he should wait a few weeks before he starts investing, whether to go for a dollar-cost average approach and if other options beyond ETFs would suit his goals.
&#8220;I&#8217;m 38 years old with newly acquired $750,000 in cash. How should I invest? My goal is long-term growth. Should I wait a few more weeks? When [dollar-cost averaging]–what amounts and frequency should I shoot for? And advice for investments beyond ETFs given the volatility at the moment?&#8221; he asked.
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The Reddit community has responded to the 38-year-old&#8217;s post with insights and advice, so let&#8217;s dive deeper into the comments to find out what the community has suggested.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How to Invest $750,000? Reddit Community Shares Insights</h2>
Use Dollar-Cost Averaging and Invest in ETFs
One of the most common suggestions was to use dollar-cost averaging to invest in ETFs, especially those tracking global and U.S. markets.
&#8220;Definitely [dollar-cost averaging] over a year or two. You should buy world ETFs, U.S. ETFs, and 20% bonds,&#8221; a comment says.
One Redditor suggested specific ETFs he thinks would grow the poster&#8217;s money in the long run.
&#8220;[Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voo#NYSE">VOO</a>)] or [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voog#NYSE">VOOG</a>)], [Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vgt#NYSE">VGT</a>)] or [Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xlk#NYSE">XLK</a>)], [Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vt#NYSE">VT</a>)] or [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vxus#NASDAQ">VXUS</a>)],&#8221; he said.
A commenter pointed out he has a more structured approach to dollar-cost averaging with a focus on a few particular ETFs.
&#8220;Looking forward to the responses as I'm currently sitting in [iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sgov#NYSE">SGOV</a>)]. My plan is to ladder into [iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ibit#NYSE">IBIT</a>)], VT, and VOO. I will do bi-weekly buys starting in June,&#8221; he wrote.
A Reddit user suggested a mix of global equity exposure and bonds for a diversified portfolio.
&#8220;VT 70%, [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/bnd#NASDAQ">BND</a>)] 30%. Increase BND 10% for each 10 years of your age from now on. Good luck to you,&#8221; the user said.
&#8220;VT, [Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schd#NYSE">SCHD</a>)], [iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dgro#NYSE">DGRO</a>)], [Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqqm#NASDAQ">QQQM</a>)], [JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: JEPQ]. SGOV or [Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vusxx#NASDAQ">VUSXX</a>)] for other opportunities,&#8221; a comment reads.
One user mentioned a global stock market ETF but agreed that VXUS is also a good choice.
&#8220;I like [SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spgm#NYSE">SPGM</a>)], but VXUS is good as well,&#8221; a comment reads.
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Don&#8217;t Time the Market
Many Redditors cautioned against market timing, with some even predicting what they think the new investor will do after investing.
&#8220;Imagine hoarding $750,000 during a 15-year bull market, to only now considering investing it. The market is guaranteed to drop 20% starting the day after the OP invests it. And someone new to investing will get emotional about the 20% drop and sell at the bottom, where it will immediately go on a 5-year bull run again,&#8221; a commenter wrote.
&#8220;Man, you got $750,000 and you didn't put a cent of that into the S&amp;P 500 over the last 5 years. I can see the S&amp;P 500 being very choppy over the next four years with Trump. If I were honestly you, I would keep that money in a savings bank account. And invest new money from my wages into the S&amp;P 500, bonds ETF, and income ETFs,&#8221; another comment says.
Replying to the above user, a Redditor reminded him that the poster didn&#8217;t have the money for long.
&#8220;Sounds like he just came into the $750,000 recently,&#8221; he said.
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DGRO

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$750K In Cash But No Assets Or Pension – 38-Year-Old Asks: 'My Goal Is Long-Term Growth. How Should I Invest?' Reddit Is Divided

For many people, the idea of passive income is beyond charming, and it is what drives countless individuals to explore different <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44335110/stupid-20-year-investment-plan-investor-questions-200000-dividend-strategy-is-it-stupid-to-put-in-that-much-into-schd">investment</a> approaches.
Still, one of the most common challenges investors face, especially those at the beginning of their journey, is whether to prioritize growth assets or <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/25/03/44196217/53-year-old-with-200k-to-invest-seeks-best-stocks-for-retirement-should-i-go-all-in-on-etfs-or-bet-b">dividend</a> investing. Both methods have their benefits, but choosing the right course can be difficult, especially when balancing short-term financial needs with long-term <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/12/42301100/most-americans-dont-see-wealth-as-the-key-to-financial-success-heres-what-matters-more-to-59-of-them">wealth</a> expansion.
Let&#8217;s dive into the story of a 33-year-old investor with a $40,000 portfolio who is faced with this very challenge. The Reddit user has $30,000 of the total amount invested in dividend-focused assets, generating approximately $190 per month in passive income after taxes.
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</ul>
His goal is to build a portfolio that will earn him enough dividends that he can live off them and to achieve this, he plans on investing 80% to 100% of his active income into dividend shares, ETFs, and funds.
&#8220;For now, I&#8217;m thinking maybe investing up to 20% of my portfolio to &#8220;growth&#8221; like [ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)] and [ProShares UltraPro S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/upro#NYSE">UPRO</a>)], only on big corrections, and 80% of my portfolio continue to hold/reinvest in dividend assets. Or maybe focus only on growth, sell all dividend assets, and invest 80% now only in Index ETFs ([SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>)], [Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)]) and 20% in leverage ETFs&#8230; There is a psychological aspect too, when I see passive income every month–it&#8217;s very motivating to continue investing more, to grow dividend income. So, dilemma&#8230; What do you think?&#8221; the young investor wrote.
Trending: The secret weapon in billionaire investor portfolios that you almost certainly don't own yet. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">See which asset class has outpaced the S&amp;P 500 (1995-2024) – and with near-zero correlation.</a>
The Reddit community took the comments by storm, sharing advice, insights, and suggestions, so let&#8217;s dive deep into these.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest $40,000 in Growth-Focused Assets or Dividends? Reddit Responds</h2>
Prioritize Growth Assets Now, Transition to Dividends Later
Many Reddit users advised the poster to focus on growth while he&#8217;s young as this strategy typically yields higher returns over the long run.
&#8220;If you&#8217;re young, I&#8217;d stick the money in a growth fund and let it ride. If you love dividends you can drop or reinvest the dividends into growth. There&#8217;s no wrong answer&#8230; but if you&#8217;re young, you&#8217;ll end up with more money investing in &#8220;growth&#8221; now. I&#8217;m 57 and started building my dividend portfolio about 15 years ago&#8230; I live on them now,&#8221; a Redditor said.
One commenter suggested a phased approach and mentioned several funds he advised the poster to invest in.
&#8220;When younger, just try and match the market. Meaning, just buy [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voo#NYSE">VOO</a>)] or [Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vti#NYSE">VTI</a>)]. Averaging 10% annually, or whatever the market is doing for 30 years, is guaranteed millionaire-making based on history. If you get crazy, follow Professor G's 3-fund approach and add in [Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)] and [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schd#NYSE">SCHD</a>)]. SCHD will be your doorway to dividends. Then, as you start nearing retirement, start pivoting more of your portfolio to high-quality income and dividend stuff. For me, that was [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepi#NYSE">JEPI</a>)], [JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepq#NASDAQ">JEPQ</a>)], [iShares Preferred &amp; Income Securities ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pff#NASDAQ">PFF</a>)], and about 15 other income investments and stocks,&#8221; his comment reads.
&#8220;Obviously, wealth building should be your first goal. You could use value stocks or bonds that pay dividends for diversification, but diversification doesn&#8217;t speed up wealth building, it just softens market drawdowns (and restricts bull markets),&#8221; another Redditor suggested.
A user also recommended the investor focus on growth first and later transition to dividend-paying assets.
&#8220;Focus on growth assets first, build a larger capital base, and transition into dividend investing later. In my opinion. This is my plan. Dividends are great until you have to start eating into the balance to pay large expenses,&#8221; he said.
See Also: Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a>
Psychological Motivation Vs. Financial Logic
Commenters also admitted the psychological benefits of dividend investing the poster mentioned, especially the motivation that comes from seeing regular income, but they also warned against letting feelings override a good financial plan.
&#8220;Many people spend their whole lives chasing an imaginary number. First, define for yourself what &#8220;enough&#8221; is and keep doing what you&#8217;re doing, you&#8217;re probably better off than you realize. Also, the &#8220;fastest&#8221; way is very rarely the most &#8220;logical&#8221; way, but the biggest thing you can do after cutting back spending is increase your income,&#8221; a commenter said.
A user cautioned against investing in too many assets and ending up having too many tickers to handle, suggesting a few ETFs instead.
&#8220;One thing I would caution against though, regardless of which way you go, is having too many tickers and positions to monitor. Once you get into individual stocks, managing more than 15-20 becomes basically a full-time job; at least to do it properly. So my personal recommendation would be to move into a few ETFs that align with your investment thesis unless you feel you can manage that many individual positions,&#8221; the Redditor advised.
Read Next:
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<li>Dogecoin millionaires are increasing –<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/dogecoin-millionaires"> investors with $1M+ in DOGE revealed!</a></li>
<li>How do billionaires pay less in income tax than you?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/tax-deferring-adv"> Tax deferring is their number one strategy</a>.</li>
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TQQQ

UPRO

Investor With $40,000 Portfolio Wonders If He Should Pick Dividend Investing Or Growth First – 'Would You Prioritize Dividends Or Growth?

The stock market is a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/50304340/stock-prices-bottom-before-recessions-end">discounting mechanism</a>, which means its price reflects expectations for the future, and its price fluctuations reflect the market's attempt to factor in changes to those expectations.
Believe it or not, in a given moment, the stock market does not care too much about the present state of things. That's because expectations for the present will have been priced into the market days, weeks, and months in the past.
That is to say, the stock market reacts to news to the degree the new information 1) is not in line with what the market expected for the present, and 2) changes what the market expects for the future.
There are some more factors that drive stock prices over time. But in the context of digesting major news headlines, these are the two relationships to watch.
Because the stock market is so heavily dependent on expectations for the future, we inevitably get moments when stock market behavior appears to conflict with information about the present. Specifically, we sometimes get stock prices falling amid good news and rising amid bad news.
These are some of the most misunderstood moments in stock market cycles.
That time stocks surged as the economy crashed &#x1f92f;
One of the more dumbfounding instances of this counterintuitive dynamic came during the spring of 2020 when the economy was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/withdraw-earnings-guidance-sign-of-high-uncertainty">reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns</a>.
After a sharp 35% drop, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/withdraw-earnings-guidance-sign-of-high-uncertainty">bottomed and inflected upward on March 23 that year</a>.
But we continued to get disastrous economic reports for weeks as the stock market rallied.
This resulted in one of the&nbsp;<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-rally-economic-data-bad-morning-brief-100821753.html">defining screengrabs of the pandemic</a>. It was from the April 9 episode of "Mad Money with Jim Cramer." Cramer's show highlighted how the stock market had its&nbsp;<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-9-2020-221426994.html">best week in decades</a>&nbsp;while the chyron reported the cumulative three-week tally of unemployment insurance claims ballooned to 16 million.
People were confused.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd815fa4c-204b-4755-9ed6-aecfa4195afd_443x474.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="868" height="928" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-1-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-8117" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-1-2.jpeg 868w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-1-2-281x300.jpeg 281w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-1-2-768x821.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 868px) 100vw, 868px" /></figure>
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Many on social media did not take kindly to the stock market's rally in early 2020. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/JustinAHorwitz/status/1248384733156741123">@JustinAHorwitz</a>)
Yes, the economy was in bad shape in April. But expectations were already extremely low, which meant the bar for developments that could cause stocks to go higher was also very low.
In retrospect, it seems the stock market got it right.
It wasn't until June that we learned&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-fell-in-may-as-hiring-rebounded">job creation resumed in May</a>. And it wasn't until July 2021 that we learned that the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/2021/07/19/nber-recession-ended-april-2020">recession had ended in April 2020</a>.
The stock market, for its part, recovered all of its pandemic losses and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/to-the-brink-and-back-in-175-days-the-s-p-500-rallies-to-record">reached new record highs in August 2020</a>. (So, if you had dumped stocks as the news was getting bad and you had waited for good news to get back in, then you might've actually missed out on considerable gains you could've earned by just holding through the crisis.)
This was not just a pandemic recession phenomenon. The stock market&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/cembalest-stocks-bottom-before-earnings">usually</a>&nbsp;begins its recovery long before the economy. JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest reviewed the history in an October 2022&nbsp;<a href="https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/reruns-amv.pdf">research note</a>.
"There is a remarkable consistency to the patterns shown below: equities tend to bottom several months (at least) before the rest of the victims of a recession," he wrote.
As you can see in Cembalest's charts, stock prices (dotted blue line) tend to inflect upwards before we see improvements in earnings (red line), GDP (yellow line), and employment (purple line).
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb526081-f72f-4cd1-b9eb-dfdaf3a7ae76_1840x1226.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="935" height="623" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165941/image-5.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-8118" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165941/image-5.jpeg 935w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165941/image-5-300x200.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165941/image-5-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 935px) 100vw, 935px" /></figure>
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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="935" height="305" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-4.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-8116" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-4.jpeg 935w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-4-300x98.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/17165940/image-4-768x251.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 935px) 100vw, 935px" /></figure>
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Stocks usually recover before the economy. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/reruns-amv.pdf">JPMorgan</a>)
Historically, the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-performance-recessions">stock market bottomed about five months before the economy</a>. Sometimes the lead time is longer. Sometimes its shorter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-performance-recessions">On one extremely rare occasion</a>&nbsp;— the Dotcom bubble — the market bottomed&nbsp;<a href="https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/reruns-amv.pdf">after</a>&nbsp;the economy.
The economic news has been getting gloomier &#x1f440;
The U.S. economy&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/hot-economic-charts-that-cooled">has been cooling</a>&nbsp;for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/us-economy-cooling">a while</a>&nbsp;as the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/saving-job-openings-capex-orders">major tailwinds</a>&nbsp;early in the recovery&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/coiled-spring-economy-job-openings-normalize">normalized</a>.
The good news had been that the economy was nevertheless still growing bolstered by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/household-finances-consumer-spending-strength">consumers' ability to spend</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/capex-investment-plans-rise-after-trump-election">businesses' willingness to invest</a>.
While we might not necessarily be heading for recession, we could be in the midst of a "<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-investing-volatility-gains">growth scare,</a>" which has historically come with big stock market sell-offs followed by rapid rallies.
Growth scare-y&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/148105103/an-anecdote-thats-real-but-the-bigger-picture-reveals-something-else">anecdotes</a>&nbsp;have been accumulating recently. Since the beginning of March:
<ul>
<li>Delta Airlines <a href="https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/11d5a8ff-be02-448c-84f4-463a77b3365f.pdf">warned</a> that their "outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty."</li>
<li>According to the NFIB's February Small Business Optimism <a href="https://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdf">survey</a>, capital spending plans tumbled to their lowest level since 2020.</li>
<li>From the NY Fed's February <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250310">Survey of Consumer Expectations</a>: "Households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably."</li>
<li>From the University of Michigan's March <a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">Survey of Consumers</a>: "Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. …expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets."</li>
<li>Wall Street firms, including <a href="https://x.com/SamRo/status/1898050726904869051">Goldman Sachs</a>, <a href="https://x.com/SamRo/status/1898024973454791110">Morgan Stanley</a>, and <a href="https://x.com/SamRo/status/1900585406229524675">JPMorgan</a> cut their GDP growth forecasts.</li>
<li>Even President Trump euphemistically warned that Americans could face "<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/trump-2nd-term-tariffs-ukraine?id=119377651&amp;entryId=119560423">some disturbance</a>" and a "<a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/trump-us-experience-period-transition-economy-see-recession-year">period of transition</a>" as his administration moves forward with <a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-brief-explanation-tariffs">costly tariffs</a>. Treasury Secretary Bessent echoed the sentiment, warning of an economic "<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-economy-could-be-starting-to-roll-a-little-bit.html">detox period.</a>"</li>
</ul>
Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism, you could argue that the current&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-down-days-drawdowns-down-years-normal">drawdown</a>&nbsp;that began on Feb. 19 was the market pricing in the bad news we're getting now.
This again speaks to the quandary investors face as they think about making adjustments to their portfolios. The stock market does not price in what's going on today. It's pricing in what's expected in the weeks, months, and years ahead.
And that future is uncertain. It could be worse than what we currently expect. It could be better.
No one can say for sure that the stock market hit its low for the year. However, we also shouldn't be surprised if we soon experience a sustained rally as incoming news just confirm gloomy expectations that have already been priced into the market.
Zooming out &#x1f52d;
In hindsight, divergences in the stock market and the economy make sense. But in the moment, it often&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-performance-after-down-days">feels</a>&nbsp;wrong.
What&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-performance-after-down-days">feels</a>&nbsp;right is when the stock market falls as you get information that indicates the present and near future are deteriorating, and vice versa.
However, there is likely to be a moment where the stock market moves higher as it resumes pricing in a better future. And that moment is likely to happen when the economic headlines are bad.
It all speaks to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/bofa-on-timing-market-peaks-stay-invested">perils of trying to time the market</a>.
Is it possible we learn that the economic situation proves far worse than what's priced into the market today? Absolutely.
Can we guarantee that? Absolutely not.
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One Of The Most Misunderstood Moments In Stock Market Cycles ⏱️

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