Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) Stock

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto is a global diversified miner. Iron ore is the dominant commodity, with significantly lesser contributions from copper, aluminum, diamonds, gold, and industrial minerals. The 1995 merger of RTZ and CRA, via a dual-listed structure, created the present-day company. The two operate as a single business entity, with shareholders in each company having equivalent economic and voting rights. Major assets included the Pilbara iron ore operations, a 30% stake in the Escondida copper mine, 66%-ownership of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, the Weipa and Gove bauxite mines in Australia, and six hydro-powered aluminum smelters in Canada.

Rio Tinto PLC

Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust

Rio2 Ltd

Riot Platforms Inc

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RION Co Ltd

The U.S. is accelerating the permitting process for 10 critical mineral production projects under the FAST-41 program following President Donald Trump's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44471105/trumps-executive-order-fuels-investor-speculation-over-alaskan-resources" rel="noreferrer noopener">executive order</a> to reduce the country's reliance on foreign mineral imports.
The initiative seeks to remove bureaucratic hurdles, secure essential minerals, and strengthen domestic supply chains.
"This is the first use of the Permitting Council's transparency authority, and we look forward to showcasing the many benefits the Federal Permitting Dashboard can bring to critical infrastructure projects," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/trump-administration-advances-first-wave-of-critical-mineral-production-projects/" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> Manisha Patel, Acting Executive Director at the Permitting Council. "It's a vital tool for interagency coordination and efficient decision-making," he added.
The newly designated projects include major proposals across the country such as Perpetua Resources' (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PPTA#NASDAQ">PPTA</a>) Stibnite Gold and Antimony Project in Idaho, Rio Tinto's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) Resolution Copper Project in Arizona, Hecla Mining's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HL#NYSE">HL</a>) copper and silver mine in Montana, and Albemarle's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALB#NYSE">ALB</a>) expansion of the Silver Peak lithium mine in Nevada. Also included are Standard Lithium's direct lithium extraction site in Arkansas, Warrior Met Coal's metallurgical coal mine in Alabama, and the McDermitt Lithium Project in Oregon. Others include the Caldwell Canyon Phosphate Mine in Idaho, Lisbon Valley Copper in Utah, and Michigan Potash.
These projects are now subject to the FAST-41 framework, which provides enhanced interagency coordination and a centralized online dashboard for monitoring permitting progress. While the program doesn't waive environmental laws, it significantly improves process transparency and helps enforce clearer timelines.
The U.S. depends heavily on foreign sources, particularly China, for critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and rare earth elements, crucial for electric vehicles, military equipment, and consumer electronics. Lengthy permitting processes, which can take anywhere from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39870803/us-mine-development-delays-among-worlds-longest-second-only-to-zambia" rel="noreferrer noopener">10 to 29 years</a>, have hindered domestic production, forcing reliance on geopolitical competitors. By comparison, countries like Canada and Australia approve mines in two to five years, giving them a significant advantage in attracting investment and securing supply chains.
Even in Canada, where permitting is relatively faster, both leading candidates for prime minister—Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre—have campaigned on promises to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44732611/canadian-politicians-promise-faster-project-approvals-ahead-of-april-28-elections" rel="noreferrer noopener">reduce mining bureaucracy</a> further.
"For too long, duplicative processes and regulatory paralysis have delayed the development of the minerals America needs," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/trump-administration-adds-key-mining-projects-fast-41" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> Adam Suess, Acting Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management. "By cutting red tape and increasing accountability, we're making it clear that under President Trump, the United States is serious about being a global leader in critical minerals."
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44891559/chinas-gold-stash-soars-to-2292-tonnesand-its-still-buying" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">China's Central Bank's Gold Stash Spikes To 2,292 Tonnes And Beijing Is Still Buying</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by Juan Roballo via Shutterstock

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PPTA

Trump Administration Fast-Tracks Ten Domestic Critical Mineral Projects

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) disclosed that it entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with AMG Metals &amp; Materials to explore the development of a large-scale, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">low-carbon aluminium project in India</a>.
The initiative aims to leverage renewable energy—specifically wind and solar, supported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250416657643/en/Rio-Tinto-and-AMG-Metals-Materials-to-assess-low-carbon-aluminium-project-in-India" rel="noreferrer noopener">by </a>pumped hydro storage to power the operations.
The partnership will assess the feasibility of establishing an integrated facility with a capacity for up to 1 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of primary aluminium and 2 Mtpa of alumina.
As a first step, the study will focus on a potential 500,000 tpa primary aluminium smelter at a strategically chosen location in India.
Rio Tinto Aluminium Chief Executive Jérôme Pécresse said, "This study is an important step in our ambition to grow our global, low-carbon aluminium footprint while exploring new project delivery approaches and opportunities in emerging markets.&#8221;
&#8221;With its rapid economic growth and strategic position, India is a compelling location for this potential project and aligns with our long-term vision for a globally more diverse and resilient aluminium business."
Group President of AMG Metals &amp; Materials and Greenko Mahesh Kolli added, "This MOU could deliver much needed low-carbon metal at scale to propel decarbonization initiatives in global supply chains across auto, construction, consumer packaging and many more segments."
On Wednesday, the company reported a decline in Pilbara iron ore production of 10%<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/04/44836973/cyclones-impact-rio-tinto-q1-pilbara-production-and-shipment-by-13-millions-tonnes-trigger-95-million-recovery-plan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> year-over-year (Y/Y) to 69.8Mt</a>.
Severe weather conditions impacted both production and shipment, with four cyclones collectively causing an estimated loss of&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">approximately 13 million tonnes</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and&nbsp;NEOS ETF Trust Mast Global Battery Recycling &amp; Production ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EV#NYSE">EV</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 1.77% at $58.17 at last check Thursday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44636869/jp-morgan-turns-to-europe-sees-value-in-emea-mining-equities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">JPMorgan Turns Bullish On European Miners, Sees Copper Rally As Key Catalyst</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Rahul Sapra/Shutterstock

Equities

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Movers

Why Is Rio Tinto Betting On India? A Green Aluminium Gamble Could Reshape Supply Chains

U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday ahead of the long weekend, with Good Friday falling on April 18 and Easter Sunday on April 20. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher in premarket.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44848474/fed-chair-powell-says-tariffs-lead-to-temporary-rise-in-inflation">Federal Reserve</a> Chairman Jerome Powell dismissed the possibility of a &#8220;Fed put&#8221; in the near term while speaking in Chicago on Wednesday.
&#8220;We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close,&#8221; said Powell.
U.S. export restrictions on Nvidia Corp.&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) <a href="https://benzinga.com/25/04/44844084/nvidias-h20-chip-ban-could-lead-to-manageable-sales-drop-bank-of-america-says">H20 GPUs</a> pulled the stock market down on Wednesday.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.32% and the two-year bond was at 3.82%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing an 86.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its May meeting.
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<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Futures</td>
<td>Change (+/-)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>0.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>1.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>0.66%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 1.03% to $531.05, while the QQQ advanced 1.04% to $448.78, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Cues From Last Session:
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday, driven by a significant sell-off in the semiconductor sector and broader tech weakness.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) experienced a steep decline, with Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) both falling approximately 7% following new export restrictions on Nvidia chips to China.
This news heavily impacted the information technology sector, which, along with consumer discretionary and communication services, recorded the largest losses. In contrast, energy stocks defied the overall downward trend, closing higher.
Among individual companies, Travelers Companies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRV#NYSE">TRV</a>) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, and Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABT#NYSE">ABT</a>) posted upbeat first-quarter adjusted EPS.
On the economic front, U.S. industrial production fell by 0.3% in March, slightly more than anticipated. However, U.S. retail sales surged 1.4% month-over-month in March, exceeding both the previous month&#8217;s gain and market expectations.
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<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
<td>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq Composite</td>
<td>-3.07%</td>
<td>16,307.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>-2.24%</td>
<td>5,275.70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>-1.73%</td>
<td>39,669.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>-1.03%</td>
<td>1,863.48</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Insights From Analysts:
According to Scott Wren, the senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, &#8220;current equity levels offer an attractive entry opportunity even with the bounce higher off the recent lows.&#8221;
Wren further emphasized the importance of having a &#8220;plan of action or at least be happy with where you currently stand,&#8221; regardless of individual perspectives on the implemented tariffs.
&#8220;Over the course of the last couple of weeks, we have seen the administration go from an aggressive reciprocal tariff strategy that involved meaningful universal tariffs on virtually all of our trading partners to a pause that suspends most reciprocal tariffs but leaves a 145% levy on imports from China,&#8221; Wren notes.
Despite the tariff uncertainty, Wren&#8217;s firm maintains a view that the U.S. economy was already heading for a slowdown in the first half of the year, even before the current trade strategies were implemented. &#8220;From our perspective, even before the current tariff strategies were deployed, our analysis suggested the economy was going to hit a bump in the road and slow in the first half of this year. That line of thought is still intact,&#8221; Wren states.
Wren also suggests a strategic shift in fixed income, advising investors to &#8220;move money from bonds, specifically the intermediate portion of the yield curve, into mid-cap U.S. equities in an effort to take advantage of the fall in stocks and the rally in bond prices (yields fell).&#8221;
Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-currency-may-be-called-into-question-amid-tariff-turmoil">U.S. dollar is facing pressure</a>, with its &#8220;reserve currency&#8221; status. A recent study titled &#8216;Dollar Upheaval: This Time is Different&#8217; noted a 3.6% depreciation between April 4th and 14th, an unusual move as the dollar typically gains during global volatility.
This suggests a break from traditional market behavior, raising concerns that U.S. Treasuries lose their safe-haven appeal.
"If U.S. Treasuries are no longer viewed as the world's preferred safe asset, then the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency may be called into question,&#8221; stated the note.
Investors are now <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/treasuries/25/04/44857989/gold-nears-3400-mark-experts-point-to-likely-correction-amid-bull-market-rates-will-drop-like-rock">flocking to Gold</a>, which has been hitting fresh highs as it trades above $3,300 per ounce. According to data shared by Charlie Bilello of Creative Planning, the inflation-adjusted gold prices were back at an all-time high, after 45 years, surpassing the prior peak from 1980.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">It took 45 years to get there, but inflation-adjusted Gold prices are back at an all-time high, surpassing the prior peak from 1980. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24GOLD&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$GOLD</a><a href="https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ">https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ</a> <a href="https://t.co/bXWisvrl3c">pic.twitter.com/bXWisvrl3c</a>
&mdash; Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) <a href="https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1912558536573268362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Economist Mohamed El-Erian attributed the increasing price of gold to a gradual shift away from the U.S. dollar by some foreign central banks and other entities seeking diversification.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The price of gold registered another record high today, overcoming yet another periodic round of profit-taking by some tactical traders — this as it benefits from the tailwind of slow and steady diversification away from the dollar by some foreign central banks and others.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/gold?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#gold</a>… <a href="https://t.co/MKDnxZddv0">pic.twitter.com/MKDnxZddv0</a>
&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1912523089557987357?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>
Upcoming Economic Data
Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday and Friday:
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, initial jobless claims data for the week ending April 12 and March&#8217;s housing starts, building permits, and April&#8217;s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey data will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>On Friday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 8:00 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>
Stocks In Focus:
<ul>
<li>UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) fell 0.64% in premarket on Thursday as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $7.29 per share on revenue of $111.60 billion.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>DR Horton Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>) rose 0.39% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $8.03 billion before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFLX#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>) was up 1.38% as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $5.72 per share on revenue of $10.52 billion.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>FNB Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FNB#NYSE">FNB</a>) was up 1.14% as it posted better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter on Wednesday.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) jumped 3.45% after reporting a 60% surge in its net profit for the first quarter, topping market expectations.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto Plc ADR (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) climbed 1.68% after it announced the assessment of the low-carbon aluminum project in India along with AMG Metals &amp; Materials.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Woodside Energy Group Ltd. ADR (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WDS#NYSE">WDS</a>) advanced 2.73% after signing LNG supply agreements with Uniper.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>BP PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BP#NYSE">BP</a>) gained 1.08%, and Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KOS#NYSE">KOS</a>) was 4.22% higher after BP completed loading the first cargo from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project.</li>
</ul>
Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.02% to hover around $63.11 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar declined 0.57% to hover around $3,324.20 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,357.81 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was higher by 0.10% at the 99.4760 level.
Asian markets advanced on Wednesday, except China&#8217;s CSI 300 index. India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and South Korea's Kospi index ended higher. European markets were lower in early trade.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-currency-may-be-called-into-qu">Policy Push vs. Market Pull: Dollar Under Pressure As &#8216;Reserve Currency May Be Called Into Question&#8217; Amid Tariff Turmoil</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Market Summary

Futures

Treasuries

Economics

Federal Reserve

Pre-Market Outlook

Markets

Analyst Ratings

NFLX

NVDA

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Ahead Of Festive Weekend: 'Current Equity Levels Offer An Attractive Entry Opportunity'

Rio Tinto And AMG Metals & Materials Signed A Memorandum Of Understanding To Jointly Assess The Feasibility Of Developing An Integrated Low-carbon Aluminium Project Powered By Renewable Energy In India

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) on Wednesday reported a decline in Pilbara iron ore production of 10% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">year-over-year (Y/Y) to 69.8Mt</a>.
Pilbara iron ore shipments (consolidated basis) decreased 8% Y/Y to 62.5Mt in the quarter.
Severe weather conditions impacted both production and shipment, with four cyclones collectively causing an estimated loss of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">approximately 13 million tonnes</a>.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/03/44223819/activist-renews-calls-for-listing-unification-as-rio-tinto-abandons-5-billion-equity-offering" rel="noreferrer noopener">Activist Renews Calls For Listing Unification As Rio Tinto Abandons $5 Billion Equity Offering</a>
Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-releases-first-quarter-2025-production-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">production</a> of Bauxite rose 12% Y/Y to 15.0MT and Alumina upped 3% Y/Y to 1.9Mt in the quarter.
Outlook: For FY25, Rio reiterated guidance for Bauxite production of 57 to 59MT and Alumina production of 7.4 to 7.8MT.
The company now projects Pilbara iron ore shipments to reach the lower end of the previously issued guidance of 323-338MT, primarily due to the losses sustained from four cyclones in the first quarter.
To address about half of this shortfall, the company has implemented mitigation strategies that will require an additional investment of roughly A$150 million ($95.5 million), covering rectification efforts and contracted mining services.
Moreover, the company continues to anticipate its share of capital investment of ~$11 billion in 2025.
Chief Executive Jakob Stausholm said, "We continued to see strong operational improvement with the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and our bauxite operations delivering record months for production in March. Production was affected, however, by extreme weather events that impacted our Pilbara iron ore operations."
"We achieved first iron ore at Western Range in the Pilbara and the Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea remains on track. After successful completion of the Arcadium acquisition in March, we are advancing to establish a world-class lithium business."
Last month, the company invested $1.8 billion to develop the Brockman Syncline&nbsp;1&nbsp;(BS1) mine<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/03/44161401/rio-tintos-1-8-billion-iron-ore-expansion-ramps-up-in-australia-details" rel="noreferrer noopener"> in Western Australia's West Pilbara</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and NEOS ETF Trust Mast Global Battery Recycling &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EV#NYSE">EV</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 0.45% to $57.52 premarket at the last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44709602/jpmorgans-mining-stock-picks-for-a-v-shaped-recovery-analyst-sees-50-returns-over-two-years" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">JPMorgan's Mining Stock Picks For A ‘V-Shaped Recovery,' Analyst Sees 50% Returns Over Two Years</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by Adwo via Shutterstock

Earnings

Guidance

Cyclones Impact Rio Tinto Q1 Pilbara Production And Shipment By 13 Millions Tonnes, Trigger $95 Million Recovery Plan

Rio Reiterated 2025 Pilbara Iron Ore Shipments Guidance At 323-338Mt

Rio Sees Q1 Pilbara Iron Ore Production Of 69.8MT, Down 10% YoY

WIIM

SCCO

Shares of metals stocks are trading higher as stocks rebound amid overall market volatility as investors assess this week's tariff developments.

STLD

Shares of metals companies are trading higher following President Trump's decision to implement a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China.

Mining may be down, but not out. The sector has been the worst hit since the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">new U.S. tariffs</a> were announced.
JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane says, "<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities">mining was best performing sector</a> exiting last 3 recessions," and he expects another sharp recovery to unfold after the slide.
With the sector already pricing in a worst-case scenario, the setup for a V-shaped bounce is taking shape.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Extreme Weakness, But What's Priced In?</h2>
Metals and mining have been the worst-performing sector since new U.S. tariffs were announced, shedding 13% just last week. That adds to an eye-watering 50% underperformance versus MSCI Europe since January 2023. But O'Kane argues the damage is largely in the price: mining stocks already discount a recession scenario, with commodity prices 15–20% below current levels—such as iron ore at $80/ton and copper at $7,500/ton.
Still, fair value estimates suggest that miners have a serious upside even if metal prices stay flat. JPMorgan sees more than 50% total shareholder return over a two-year horizon. Rio Tinto plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>), for example, offers >65% upside, Antofagasta plc (OTCPK: ANFGF) >50% upside and BHP Group Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) >65% upside from current price levels.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44682458/coppers-rout-sees-a-massive-intraday-price-swing-fundamentals-havent-changed-expert-says">Copper&#8217;s Rout Sees A Massive Intraday Price Swing, &#8216;Fundamentals Haven&#8217;t Changed,&#8217; Expert Says</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Could Flip The Switch? China Stimulus In Q3</h2>
In the past three global downturns &#8211; 2009, 2016 and 2020 &#8211; miners bottomed ahead of the broader market and went on to outperform by roughly 100% in the next 12 months. This time, the catalyst could once again be China.
JPMorgan economists expect a RMB one trillion fiscal stimulus to be unveiled in the third quarter, which would align with the historical bottoming pattern of ~four months post-selloff.
In 2020, that timeline shrank to just one month as stimulus arrived fast and hard.
That said, this time is different: the expected 0.7% of GDP stimulus is far smaller than 2008's massive ~12% package, and no China property rescue is on the horizon.
Still, the setup remains favorable.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How To Play The Rebound: Stocks, ETFs</h2>
O'Kane's top stock picks are copper and gold-centric: Antofagasta and Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK: LUNMF) lead his copper recommendations, while Rio Tinto offers a diversified bet with a high free cash flow yield.
On the gold side, Fresnillo plc (OTCPK: FSNPF), Hochschild plc (OTCPK: HCHDF) and Anglogold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>) are rated Overweight.
Several ETFs offer targeted exposure to this thesis for US-based investors. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>) and the iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>) give broad access to copper and diversified miners.
Those seeking gold exposure can look to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) or the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RING#NYSE">RING</a>).
These vehicles provide exposure to many of the stocks JPMorgan favors and may be well-positioned for a recovery trade.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/03/44442794/gold-etfs-face-off-gld-vs-gdx-as-they-steadily-climb-amid-bullion-boom">Gold ETFs Face Off: GLD Vs. GDX As They Steadily Climb Amid Bullion Boom</a></li>
</ul>
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JPMorgan's Mining Stock Picks For A 'V-Shaped Recovery,' Analyst Sees 50% Returns Over Two Years

JPMorgan Research has upgraded its outlook for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining">European mining equities</a>, shifting more positive in February and then upgrading the outlook to Overweight in March. The research team cited a pattern of the sector outperforming through economic turbulences, believing a historical pattern could repeat.
Yet analysts acknowledge that the prediction hinges on the timing of China&#8217;s policy response—an important factor since its economy accounts for over 50% of global demand for most industrial metals. JPMorgan forecasts the reaction will focus on fiscal and monetary easing rather than property sector stimulus.
Owing to U.S. tariff policies, the bank now sees a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44608617/jp-morgan-hikes-us-recession-odds-to-40-tariffs-create-a-dilemma-for-the-fed">40% chance of a domestic recession</a> this year, and China's GDP slowdown to 3% in Q2, down from 6.6% in Q1.&nbsp; With reciprocal tariffs, the effective rate on Chinese goods has now jumped to 54%, close to the bank's base case scenario of 60%.
Analysts have pointed out that European miners face limited direct exposure, although Rio Tinto's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) Canadian aluminum operations are affected. Still, the sector's upside depends on copper price stability. A sustained copper rally could present a multi-year entry point, but downside risks include demand destruction from a global recession and a weaker Chinese yuan, which historically correlates with lower metal prices.
The bank highlights Antofagasta (OTCPK: ANFGF) as its Overweight pick, citing its 15–30% volume growth through 2027–28 and attractive valuation as its Centinela expansion ramps up. It also favors Lundin Mining (OTCPK: LUNMF), arguing it trades at a discount, close to 5X EV/EBITDA, compared to peers, which trade at 9-10X. Furthermore, it faces reduced governance risks <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/40031488/bhp-to-unlock-south-american-copper-riches-partners-with-lundin-for-filo-acquisition">following Vicuña transactions</a>. Regarding the sector leaders, they're Overweight Rio Tinto (citing inexpensive valuation and high copper upside) and Neutral on Anglo American and BHP.
On the downside, the bank is Underweight Boliden, pointing to lower treatment and refining charges, exposure to zinc, and integration challenges after acquiring Lundin's two European mines for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42385859/lundin-exits-europe-for-15-billion-turns-focus-to-south-america">$1.5 billion last year</a>.
The bank remains bullish on EMEA gold miners, projecting a 30% rise in gold prices to ~$4,000/oz amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. The top pick is Fresnillo (OTCPK: FNLPF), which it sees benefiting from potential Mexican peso weakness.
European steel equities are less favored due to direct tariff exposure, particularly in auto-dependent firms like ThyssenKrupp and Voestalpine (~30–40% revenue exposure). Furthermore, the bank sees ArcelorMittal facing $400 million in annual EBITDA headwinds from tariffs, but clarifies that SSAB stands out with 45% of EBITDA from the U.S. infrastructure and defense sectors, insulating it from broader tariff risks.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44623954/metals-avoid-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-white-house-expects-domestic-industry-tailwinds">Metals Avoid Trump&#8217;s Reciprocal Tariffs, White House Expects Domestic Industry Tailwinds</a></li>
</ul>
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JPMorgan Turns Bullish On European Miners, Sees Copper Rally As Key Catalyst

U.S. tariffs on copper imports could arrive within weeks. In February, President Donald Trump directed the U.S. Commerce Department to<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44414283/copper-surges-as-arbitrage-opportunity-drives-us-imports"> conduct an investigation</a>, giving this executive department a nine-month deadline.
Per a Bloomberg<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/trump-may-implement-copper-import-tariffs-within-weeks"> report</a>, the investigation is seen as "little more than a formality.&#8221; An announcement is likely to come well ahead of the November deadline.
The proposed tariffs, which could reach as high as 25%, would shift the global copper market. The US is a major copper consumer, needing between 1.7 and 1.9 million metric tons annually. Yet, it produces less than half of that, relying on Chile, Canada, and Peru for 90% of its imports.
Rising copper costs would boost domestic producers like Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>). They could also be a catalyst for resolving the standstill in Arizona. Recall how Native American opposition stalled Rio Tinto (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) and BHP's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) Resolution Copper mine located in the southern part of the Tonto National Forest—a $64 billion flagship project that could supply 25% of projected future domestic copper demand.
The looming tariffs have triggered a surge in U.S. copper imports, as traders rush to front-run potential duties. According <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-copper-imports-soar-500000-tons-amid-tariff-threats-says-bloomberg-2025-03-24/">to</a> Mercuria, around 500,000 metric tons of copper are en route to the U.S. That far exceeds the usual monthly average of 70,000 tons, Reuters noted.
This situation has driven up prices on New York's COMEX exchange, where copper trades at a record $1,400 premium over the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark. Unforeseen circumstances further tightened the supply, as Glencore paused its major Chilean copper smelter after experiencing furnace issues.
Investment banks and commodity traders expect further price increases if tariffs are imposed. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have both forecast that a 25% duty could be in place<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/03/44271394/goldman-sachs-sees-copper-imports-increasing-tariffs-as-fcx-positions-to-benefit"> by year-end</a>, while Trafigura has projected that copper prices could climb to $12,000 per ton from the current level of around $10,000, as reported<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e4f4a52c-9449-4b2a-887d-540e37f7b9bc"> by</a> The Financial Times.
Trump, however, has remained vague on the timing of the tariff announcement. On March 5, he mistakenly implied that copper tariffs were already in effect, saying, "I imposed a 25% tariff on foreign aluminum, steel, lumber, and copper."
Besides this slip, he remained vague about potential tariff exceptions ahead of the April 2 announcement, touted as a "Liberation Day" for US trade policy. First, he took a strict tone against tariff exceptions, before softening the stance in a Tuesday interview for Newsmax,
"I'll probably be more lenient than reciprocal because if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people," he said, according<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/26/trump-says-tariffs-coming-in-april-will-probably-be-more-lenient-than-reciprocal.html"> to</a> CNBC.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/03/44490949/gold-ma-deals-are-accelerating-but-average-deals-are-smaller-research-shows">Gold M&amp;A Deals Are Accelerating, But Average Deals Are Smaller, Research Shows</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Trump's Copper Tariffs Might Come Sooner Rather Than Later, Insiders Warn

Experts urge the U.S. to collaborate with the European Union to secure assets in Ukraine&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44435337/trump-administration-pushes-for-revised-terms-to-access-ukraines-critical-resources-amid-peace-talks-report">critical minerals</a>, arguing that a joint partnership would be the best solution for everyone involved.
Dr. Patrick Schroder and Armida van Rij, senior research fellows at Chatham House, advocate for a transatlantic approach.
&#8220;A joint U.S.-EU approach would enhance supply chain security, accelerate investments and provide geopolitical stability,&#8221; they <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/trump-may-not-listen-us-should-cooperate-eu-ukraines-minerals?">wrote</a>. &#8220;This isn't just about extraction — it's about building resilient value chains that benefit all parties.&#8221;
Last Thursday, President Donald Trump said his administration was close to finalizing a deal with Ukraine, calling the negotiations "pretty well" after recent talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders.
"One of the things we are doing is signing a deal very shortly with respect to rare earths with Ukraine," Trump said during an event at the White House, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/21/ukraine-war-briefing-trump-says-minerals-deal-with-kyiv-to-be-signed-very-shortly">per</a> The Guardian.
Many of Ukraine&#8217;s most valuable resources, including lithium and rare earth elements, are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/44057033/this-is-something-that-president-trump-does-over-and-over-again-geopolitical-strategist-says-about-failed-rare-minerals-deal-with-ukraine-president-zelenskyy">in occupied areas</a>, making extraction and processing challenging. Even without these issues, the U.S. still faces logistical and regulatory hurdles in developing Ukraine's mining sector.
Europe's established infrastructure and proximity make it a natural partner in developing mining and refining operations. The EU&#8217;s well-integrated regulatory framework could help streamline the process, ensuring efficient resource extraction and exporting to every market.
Regional leaders who have the know-how include Boliden ADR (OTCPK: BDNNY) and Glencore PLC (OTCPK: GLCNF), which operate some of the continent&#8217;s best refineries, like Nikkelverk nickel refinery in Norway and Rönnskär copper smelter in Sweden. Even global mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>), which maintains a headquarters in London, has been expanding its footprint in Europe, exploring a major <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41289306/serbian-parliament-doesnt-pass-lithium-ban-keeps-rio-tintos-major-project-alive">lithium operation in Serbia</a>.
A joint effort would dissipate financial and geopolitical risks. Both parties rely on imports, while the main supplier, China, has been increasing its export restrictions. By pooling resources, both can reduce dependency on China and secure stable supplies.
Beyond logistical advantages, the EU has laid the groundwork for deeper cooperation with Ukraine through the Ukraine-EU Strategic Partnership on Raw Materials, signed in 2021. It also collaborates with the U.S. through the <a href="https://www.state.gov/minerals-security-partnership">Minerals Security Partnership</a> from 2022. A trilateral deal could expand this framework, aligning with the EU's Critical Raw Minerals Act.
Still, to achieve this, three administrations would have to find a common ground. So far, Trump's transactional approach favors quick wins, while the EU prioritizes long-term integration. Experts point out that cooperation, not competition, will yield the greatest rewards.&nbsp;
As researchers noted, "The minerals race shouldn't be a zero-sum game. Ukraine's recovery depends on sustainable investment, not short-term exploitation."
Read Next: • <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44456007/gates-bezos-backed-startup-makes-move-for-dr-congos-lithium">Gates And Bezos-Backed Startup Makes Move For DR Congo&#8217;s Lithium</a>

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'Ukraine's Recovery Depends On Sustainable Investment,' Experts Call For Trilateral Minerals Deal

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Shares of base metals stocks are trading higher amid overall market strength and as investors assess US tariffs on steel and aluminum.

AMRC, BLD, CISS, CLWT, EFX, FGI, FLNC, KITT, MT, PKX, RIO, RUN, SID, SWK

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Shares of several companies in the broader industrials space are trading lower amid overall market weakness and tariff concerns.

Activist investor Palliser Capital has renewed its call for Rio Tinto (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) to unify its dual-listed corporate structure, urging the miner to abandon its London listing<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/12/42334888/rio-tinto-ceo-defends-london-listing-outlines-future-growth-plans"> in favor of an Australian one</a>.
Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/palliser-capital-says-rio-tinto-unification-benefit-shareholders-cites-appraisal-2025-03-10/">reported</a> that the London-based hedge fund sent a letter to Rio Tinto&#8217;s chairman highlighting the report by Grant Thornton Australia. This report clarified that the company&#8217;s dual-listed structure (DLC) limits its ability to pursue stock-based mergers and acquisitions, complicates equity capital raising and creates a share price disparity between its UK and Australian listings.
Palliser, which holds a $300 million stake in Rio Tinto, argues that the structure is inefficient and &#8220;value destructive,&#8221; preventing the company from realizing its full potential. Meanwhile, their larger rival, BHP Group, successfully unified its dual-listed structure in 2022. If Rio Tinto follows that advice, it would be another hit for the London Stock Exchange (LSE), which has lost nearly a third of its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/02/43864896/glencore-rio-tinto-ponder-leaving-london-stock-exchange-as-european-financial-hub-loses-luster">listings since 2015</a>.
Rio Tinto has operated under its current structure since 1995, maintaining separate entities in the UK and Australia. The company's shares trade on the LSE and the Australian Securities Exchange, with shareholder voting rights and dividends structured to ensure parity. Furthermore, the structure requires the company to hold two annual general meetings, in London and Perth.
Rio Tinto has defended the DLC despite its complexity, stating that it benefits shareholders and supports the group's returns. The company thoroughly reviewed the structure in 2024, concluding that it remains effective. Furthermore, the management pointed at a strong dividend track record, as the firm remained among the top UK dividend payers.
The matter will be decided at Rio Tinto&#8217;s upcoming annual general meetings, with UK-listed shareholders voting on April 3 and Australian-listed shareholders voting on May 1. So far, Palliser has reportedly rallied more than 100 shareholders to support their effort.
The capital markets might be the catalyst for resolving the standoff between management and an activist investor. In the aftermath of a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/10/41203850/rio-tinto-confirms-interest-in-arcadium-lithium-shares-surge">$6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium</a>, which closed last week, Rio Tinto had floated the idea of a share sale up to $5 billion.
Still, management scrapped the idea following significant investor pushback, opting to fortify the financial position through an existing bridge loan facility.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44216408/dr-congo-explores-a-minerals-for-security-deal-with-the-us">DR Congo Explores Minerals-For-Security Deal With The US</a>
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Activist Renews Calls For Listing Unification As Rio Tinto Abandons $5 Billion Equity Offering

Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) disclosed that it is investing $1.8 billion to develop the Brockman Syncline <a target="_blank" href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/rio-tinto-to-invest-1_8-billion-to-develop-brockman-mine-extension-in-western-australias-pilbara#:~:text=PERTH%2C%20Australia%2D%2D(BUSINESS%20WIRE,world%20class%20iron%20ore%20operations." rel="noreferrer noopener">1 </a>(BS1) mine in Western Australia&#8217;s West Pilbara.
With this, the company is aiming to extend the region&#8217;s mine life and maintaining iron ore production.
BS1 is part of a series of replacement projects, collectively aimed at achieving a total annual capacity of around 130Mtpa, reinforcing Rio Tinto&#8217;s long-term commitment to the Pilbara region.
It represents a major investment in the Brockman region, which includes Brockman 4 and Greater Nammuldi.
The project has secured all required State and Federal approvals and was developed in collaboration with the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura (PKKP) and Muntulgura Guruma Traditional Owners.
Rio Tinto Iron Ore Chief Executive Simon Trott said, &#8220;Brockman 4 produced 43 million tonnes of iron ore in 2024. Securing this project extends the life of the Brockman hub.&#8221;
&#8220;Rio Tinto has been mining iron ore in the Pilbara for almost six decades and our tranche of new mines will ensure we can continue to supply the globe&#8217;s ongoing need for iron ore, for decades to come.&#8221;
The project will be capable of processing up to 34 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of iron ore, utilizing existing facilities.
The first ore is now expected in 2027, ahead of the previously anticipated 2028 timeline.
The construction for the project is set to begin this year and will involve building a new primary crusher, an overland conveyor, a Non-Process Infrastructure precinct, and a temporary camp for construction workers.
The project will create around 1,000 jobs during construction, with a workforce of approximately 600 once operational.
In a separate release, Rio Tinto revealed the completion of the buyout of Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALTM#NYSE">ALTM</a>) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44158396" rel="noreferrer noopener">for $6.7 billion.</a>
The transaction will integrate Arcadium&#8217;s lithium operations into Rio Tinto&#8217;s portfolio. Arcadium boasts a production capacity of 75,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/24/10/41246302/major-tesla-supplier-arcadium-lithium-jumps-over-30-in-pre-market-after-rio-tinto-acquires-company-f" rel="noreferrer noopener">with plans to double by 2028</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to RIO via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and NEOS ETF Trust Mast Global Battery Recycling &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EV#NYSE">EV</a>).
Price Action: RIO shares are up 0.33% at $63.96 premarket at the last check Thursday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/02/43864896/glencore-rio-tinto-ponder-leaving-london-stock-exchange-as-european-financial-hub-loses-luster" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glencore, Rio Tinto Ponder Leaving London Stock Exchange As European Financial Hub Loses Luster</a></li>
</ul>
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Rio Tinto's $1.8 Billion Iron Ore Expansion Ramps Up In Australia: Details

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Shares of several companies in the broader industrials space are trading higher amid overall market strength on reports indicating that President Trump will delay auto tariffs.

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Shares of copper stocks are trading higher after US President Donald Trump reportedly suggested imports of the metal could be subject to a 25% tariff. Copper is now trading at a 9-month high.

Shares of gold stocks are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar index.

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Iron Ore's Price Collapse Threatens Mining Operations

Rio Tinto Buys Arcadium Lithium For $6.7 Billion

Renewables and EVs Are Driving Copper Shortages Faster Than Expected

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