Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (ARCA: UUP)

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PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish

The fund invests in futures contracts in an attempt to track its index. The index is calculated to reflect the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of long positions in DX Contracts.

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PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

L&#39;inflation aux États-Unis a encore augmenté en mars, dépassant les attentes des économistes et décevant les investisseurs qui s&#39;attendaient à des réductions imminentes des taux d&#39;intérêt de la Fed.



Le taux

Inflation augmente plus que prévu à 3,5% en mars, anéantissant les espoirs de baisse des taux en juin.

Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF

As Moody's strips the U.S. of its last AAA credit rating, financial markets and currency analysts are weighing whether the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">currency could slowly erode. </a>
Analysts across major institutions agree that Treasuries remain indispensable in global finance, and no mechanical turmoil is expected in the near term.
Yet, the downgrade's timing and symbolism—arriving amid growing fiscal deficits, political uncertainty and weakening sentiment—have amplified calls for greater diversification from dollar-denominated investments for foreign investors.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar&#8217;s Dominance Isn't Over, But It's Under Pressure</h3>
"The link between U.S. sovereign risk, Treasuries, and the dollar is one of capital flight," said Chris Turner, analyst at ING Group. 
"Are global investors shifting their portfolios away from the U.S.?" 
He highlighted that March data from the U.S. Treasury's International Capital report showed foreign buyers added $26 billion in Treasuries, though China trimmed its holdings by $19 billion. 
Turner said upcoming TIC data for April, due mid-June, will be key to determining any real trend.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Downgrade Could Spark Market Volatility</h3>
According to Alejandro Cuadrado, forex strategist at BBVA, Moody's downgrade—though symbolic—arrives at a vulnerable time.
"It may act as a psychological catalyst," he said. Unlike S&amp;P's 2011 or Fitch's 2023 downgrades, this one coincides with bearish sentiment in Treasuries and rising global fiscal concern.
Cuadrado said the structural use of Treasuries in collateral systems, reserve portfolios and liquidity management remains unchanged. 
Still, "in this macro environment, the downgrade could amplify market jitters and FX volatility," he said, potentially weakening the dollar's ability to rebound after a three-month slide.
"The downgrade highlights long-term risks, including debt sustainability, which could further erode the dollar's haven appeal," George Vessey, lead macro strategist at Convera, said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Time to Start Reducing Dollar Exposure?</h3>
According to UBS, the recent consolidation in the dollar following earlier weakness offers a strategic moment for reallocation.
"We believe that this provides an opportunity for investors with excess USD cash, or international investors with unhedged exposure to U.S. assets, to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar."
Over the long term, UBS sees further structural risks. "The trend of international diversification could lead to further dollar weakness, particularly if the Federal Reserve begins to play a more active role intervening in bond markets amid high fiscal deficits."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Not A Collapse For Now, Yet Caution Is Warranted</h3>
The Dollar Index (DXY) – which is tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – fell 0.8% on Monday, erasing gains from last week on the back of a U.S.-China trade truce.
Capital flight hasn't hit the data yet, but concerns about U.S. debt and policy are starting to grow worldwide.
For the time being, the dollar remains the anchor of global trade and finance—but the psychological buffer it once enjoyed is showing cracks, and that shift may matter more than a credit downgrade.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/05/45396490/peter-schiff-says-trade-truce-aside-the-world-is-losing-confidence-in-dollar-and-in-us-ability-to-put-fiscal-house-in-order">Peter Schiff Says Trade Truce Aside, The World Is &#8216;Losing Confidence&#8217; In Dollar And In US Ability To Put &#8216;Fiscal House In Order&#8217;</a> </li>
</ul>
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Is The Dollar's Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody's Downgrade?

On Friday, May 16th, U.S. markets closed higher, fueled by a U.S.-China tariff truce, despite worsening consumer sentiment and surging inflation expectations. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow posted weekly gains, but extended-hours trading turned negative after Moody&#8217;s cut the U.S. credit rating. Analysts warned of continued volatility as tariff effects and unresolved tax policy loom.
In economic data, U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to 50.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April and below the expected 53.4. U.S. import and export prices rose 0.1% in April, defying expectations of declines and rebounding from previous drops.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by health care, utilities, and real estate, while energy stocks closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.78% to 42,654.74, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.70% to 5,958.38, while the Nasdaq was up 0.52% at 19,112.32.
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/05/45479078/moodys-downgrades-us-credit-rating-over-debt-deficit-concerns" rel="noreferrer noopener">Moody&#8217;s Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating Over Debt, Deficit Concerns</a>
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225, closed 0.74% lower at 37,473.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.58%, ending the session at 8,295.10, led by losses in the Energy, Resources, and Metals &amp; Mining sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.36% at 24,929.20, and Nifty 500 fell 0.09% to 22,850.70.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was flat 0.00% at 3,367.58 and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.31% at 3,877.15.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.05% lower at 23,332.72.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.74%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.15%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 slid 0.72%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.61%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.68% at $61.55/bbl, and Brent was down 0.67% at $64.97/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices dipped as Moody&#8217;s U.S. credit downgrade and weak Chinese data raised demand concerns.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 2.58% to $3.250.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 1.74% at $3,242.66, Silver was up 1.02% to $32.685, and Copper rose 0.78% to $4.6290.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.79%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 1.17%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.60%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.88% to 100.20, USD/JPY was down 0.49% to 144.90, and USD/AUD slid 0.61% to 1.5522.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar fell Monday, hitting a 10-day low against the yen, after Moody&#8217;s downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and rising trade tensions clouded investor sentiment.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45488403/moodys-had-an-investment-grade-rating-on-us-debt-during-2008-global-financial-crisis-recent-cut-not-a-huge-shock-says-expert" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Moody&#8217;s Had An Investment Grade Rating On US Debt During 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Recent Cut &#8216;Not A Huge Shock,&#8217; Says Expert</a></li>
</ul>
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Asia And Europe Markets Dip, Dollar Slips After US Credit Downgrade - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The University of Michigan&#8217;s May consumer survey delivered a jarring message to Wall Street and policymakers: sentiment among American consumers has plunged to the lowest levels since June 2020, while expectations for inflation surged to heights last seen <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">during the early 1980s.</a>
The preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April and missing economists' forecasts of 53.4. The gauge is now 27% lower than it was a year ago, signaling deepening anxiety among households despite the recent 90-day pause on tariffs.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Expectations Sink To 1980 Lows, Inflation Fears Echo 1981</h3>
The subindex for Current Economic Conditions declined to 57.6 from 59.8 in April, while the Consumer Expectations subindex – a measure of forward-looking sentiment – dipped further from 47.3 to 46.5. 
That reading marks the weakest since May 1980, worse even than the worst moments of the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid-19 pandemic.
"Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April," said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. "Uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers' thinking about the economy."
The data was gathered between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the White House announced a trade truce with Chine, leaving room for potential revision of the data. 
&#8220;The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations,&#8221; Hsu added.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped sharply from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May, the highest reading since November 1981. 
Long-term inflation expectations over the next five years also climbed to 4.6%, up from 4.4%, reaching levels last seen in March 1991.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="531" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-1024x531.png" alt="" class="wp-image-918032" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-1024x531.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-300x156.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-768x399.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-1536x797.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-2048x1063.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets react: Dollar Rises, Equities Erase Gains</h3>
Investors interpreted the inflation surge as a headwind to future interest rate cuts. 
The U.S. dollar, which had opened weaker, reversed course after the data. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), which tracks the dollar's strength, climbed 0.2% by 10:15 a.m. ET.
Stocks turned mixed as inflation fears resurfaced. 
The S&amp;P 500 erased early gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 both flipped to the red. Only the Nasdaq 100 managed to stay positive, up 0.2% at last check.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45468724/emerging-markets-break-out-as-peace-trades-gain-momentum-hartnett-says">Emerging Markets Break Out As &#8216;Peace Trades&#8217; Gain Momentum, Hartnett Says </a></li>
</ul>
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Macro Economic Events

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Consumer Sentiment Crashes To 5-Year Lows As Inflation Fears Reach 1981 Levels

On Thursday, May 15, U.S. markets closed mixed as Cisco rose on strong guidance linked to AI demand, while UnitedHealth fell sharply after reports of a criminal Medicare fraud probe. Amazon and Walmart slipped amid tariff concerns. Investors remain optimistic about potential trade deals, though inflation data stayed soft and companies continue to pull forecasts due to uncertainty.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims held steady at 229,000 for the week ending May 10. April retail sales rose just 0.1%, down from March's revised 1.7% gain. Producer prices fell 0.5% in April, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% to 42,322.75, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.41% to 5,916.93, while the Nasdaq declined 0.18% to 19,112.32.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.01% higher at 37,757.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.56%, ending the session at 8,343.70, led by gains in the Gold, A-REITs, and Metals &amp; Mining sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was down 0.16% at 25,023.70, and Nifty 500 rose 0.38% to 22,874.90.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.40% to 3,367.46, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.46% to 3,889.09.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.46% lower at 23,345.05.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.61%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.80%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 rose 0.70%.</li>
<li>The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.62%.</li>
<li>European stocks rose, capping a strong week driven by upbeat earnings and a U.S.-China trade truce, while low oil prices and soft U.S. data supported global markets and bonds.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.06% at $61.65/bbl, and Brent was up 0.08% at $64.58/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.48% to $3.346.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.41% at $3,212.94, Silver was down 0.81% to $32.423, and Copper fell 1.49% to $4.6145.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.33%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.22%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.07% to 100.74, USD/JPY was down 0.08% to 145.54, and USD/AUD slid 0.22% to 1.5576.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Advances, Dollar Pressured By Soft US Inflation Data - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the central bank is rethinking its approach to inflation and employment, signaling possible changes to the Fed's policy strategy as part of a major <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">review underway in 2025.</a>
&#8220;Participants have indicated that they thought it would be appropriate to reconsider the language around [labor market] shortfalls,&#8221; Powell said, referring to how the Fed talks about employment in its official strategy. 
Powell also highlighted that &#8220;at our meeting last week, we had a similar take on average inflation targeting,&#8221; hinting that the policy introduced in 2020 may be revised or dropped.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Changing And Why?</h3>
In 2020, the Fed adopted a strategy to let inflation run slightly above 2% after years of staying too low. That policy, known as average inflation targeting, was meant to boost job growth and better support the economy in downturns.
But just months later, inflation surged far beyond the Fed's expectations, hitting a peak of 7.2% in 2022. The Fed had to respond aggressively, raising interest rates by 5.25 percentage points in just 16 months. Now, Powell says the economic landscape has changed and the old approach may no longer fit.
In April 2025, inflation measured by the Fed's preferred gauge—the personal consumption expenditures index—was down to 2.2%.
 That's close to the Fed's goal and, Powell noted, "without the sharp increase in unemployment" that often comes with rate hikes. This success may be pushing the Fed to rethink whether it still needs the average inflation policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Better Communication In Focus</h3>
Powell also acknowledged that the Fed needs to do a better job explaining its outlook and the risks it sees. He said the central bank is looking at ways to improve how it communicates uncertainty around economic forecasts.
"Clear communication is an issue even in relatively placid times," he said. He added that in today's more volatile world—where shocks happen more often—it&#8217;s even more important to help the public understand that forecasts can change.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Happens Next?</h3>
Powell said the Fed will finish its policy review in the coming months. The updated strategy will replace the one adopted in 2020 and is expected to shape how the Fed responds to future economic challenges.
While some core elements will stay—like the 2% inflation target—others, like the language around employment and inflation overshooting, may be rewritten.
For now, Powell made it clear that anchoring inflation expectations—keeping public confidence that prices will remain stable—is still the Fed's top priority. "We remain fully committed to the 2 percent target today," he said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar Rebounds, Yields Hover Near 5% After Powell Speech</h3>
Markets showed a mixed response to Powell's comments, with the U.S. dollar bouncing back while Treasury yields remained elevated and tech stocks took a breather.
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose to 100.8, trimming earlier losses triggered by weaker-than-expected retail and producer price data <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45435725/tariffs-slow-retail-spending-as-producer-prices-post-sharpest-drop-since-2020">released earlier in the day.</a>
Meanwhile, 30-year Treasury yields briefly touched the 5% threshold, reflecting market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated. Yields later eased slightly to 4.98% as investors digested Powell's remarks on the Fed's evolving policy stance.
Nasdaq 100 futures were flat, stabilizing after a three-day winning streak, as traders weighed the potential implications of a policy framework revision and a slower-than-expected inflation path.
Traders currently assign just an 8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. The likelihood of easing increases further out, with markets fully pricing in a rate cut by September 2025.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534;WATCH LIVE: Fed Chair Powell &#x7C; Thomas Laubach Research Conference &#x7C; May 15, 2025" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O9tcyZq4aGU?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45435725/tariffs-slow-retail-spending-as-producer-prices-post-sharpest-drop-since-2020">Tariffs Slow Retail Spending As Producer Prices Post Sharpest Drop Since 2020</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Powell Signals Fed May Shift Inflation Strategy After 5 Years Of Economic Upheaval

April retail sales data showed that the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">round of tariffs</a> announced by President Donald Trump on &#8220;Liberation Day&#8221; started to produce their effects by reducing household consumption.
However, while households reined in spending, inflationary pressures at the producer level unexpectedly contracted in April, notching the biggest decline since April 2020 and highlighting the disinflationary impact of tariffs on input costs across industries.
U.S. retail sales grew only by 0.1% in April from the previous month, a report from the Census Bureau showed Thursday. The outcome marks a sharp reversal from March's upwardly revised 1.7% gain, yet slightly topped economist expectations of no change.
A relevant drag came from motor vehicles and parts which contracted by 0.1%. In March, auto-related sales jumped 5.5% as consumers rushed to buy before tariffs took effect. 
Stripping out autos, retail sales also rose 0.1%, a slowdown from March's 0.8% increase and below the 0.3% consensus. 
When excluding both gasoline and autos, the figure improves slightly to a 0.2% rise, though it still marks a deceleration from March's 1.1% growth.
On an annual basis, April retail sales were up 5.2% from a year earlier, unchanged from March.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs Slash Producer Prices</h3>
The Producer Price Index fell 0.5% month over month, marking the sharpest decline since April 2020. This was a steep reversal from March's flat reading and missed economists&#8217; expectations for a 0.2% increase.
On a year-over-year basis, producer inflation cooled to 2.4%, down from 3.1% in March and undercutting forecasts of 2.5%.
&#8220;The April decline in the index for final demand is attributable to prices for final demand services, which decreased 0.7%,&#8221; the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
More than 40% of April's drop in the final demand services index stemmed from a 6.1% decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. Additional declines were recorded in portfolio management, food and alcohol wholesaling, system software publishing, traveler accommodations, and airline passenger services.
Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, dropped 0.4% on the month, wiping out the previous month's 0.4% gain and coming in well below the 0.3% estimate. 
On an annual basis, core PPI rose 3.1%, easing from 4% in March but in line with consensus.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction: Yields Rise, Stocks Slip</h3>
U.S. stock futures pulled back after a three-day rally. By 8:40 a.m. ET, futures on the S&amp;P 500 were down 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – fell to 100.7 levels. 
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45430835/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-after-sp-500s-three-day-winning-streak-many-uncertainties-remain-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Three-Day Winning Streak: &#8216;&#8230;Many Uncertainties Remain,&#8217; Says Expert </a></li>
</ul>
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Tariffs Slow Retail Spending As Producer Prices Post Sharpest Drop Since 2020

On Wednesday, May 14, U.S. markets closed mixed. The S&amp;P 500 closed slightly higher after a quiet session, with investors awaiting economic data following gains earlier in the week tied to easing inflation and a U.S.-China tariff pause.
Tech stocks rose on AI deals in the Middle East, while trade uncertainty and Fed signals kept markets cautious. The Dow slipped, and the Nasdaq advanced.
In economic data, U.S. mortgage applications rose slightly in the week ending May 9, up 1.1% from the previous week, easing after an 11% jump the week before.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell Wednesday, led by losses in health care, materials, and real estate, while tech and communication stocks gained.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.21% to 42,051.06, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.10% to 5,892.58, and the Nasdaq surged 0.71% to 19,146.81.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Thursday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.88% lower at 37,793.00, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.22%, ending the session at 8,297.50, led by gains in the IT, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was up 1.52% at 25,044.25, and Nifty 500 rose 1.24% to 22,777.70.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.68% to 3,380.82, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.91% at 3,907.20.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.79% lower at 23,453.16.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.49%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index declined 0.10%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 fell 0.22%.</li>
<li>The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.08%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 3.71% at $60.81/bbl, and Brent was down 3.50% at $63.81/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices plunged nearly 4% on hopes of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could boost supply, while global stocks paused after a rally driven by trade truce optimism and Middle East deals.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.23% to $3.486.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.34% at $3,177.70, Silver was down 0.64% to $32.230, and Copper fell 0.53% to $4.6263.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.31%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.49%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.67%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.28% to 100.79, USD/JPY was down 0.55% to 145.87, and USD/AUD rose 0.22% to 1.5589.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Slips; Dollar Slides Amid Fed Uncertainty - Global Markets Today While US Slept

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-is-not-negotiating-for-weaker-dollar-as-part-of-tariff-talks">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-is-not-negotiating-for-weaker-dollar-as-part-of-tariff-talks</a>
&nbsp;

Global

'U.S. Not Seeking To Weaken Dollar As Part Of Trade Deals' - Bloomberg

On Tuesday, May 13th, U.S. markets closed mixed; the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher for a second day as cooling April inflation and a U.S.-China trade truce boosted investor confidence. The Dow slipped, weighed down by a steep drop in UnitedHealth shares. Traders expect the Fed to hold off on rate cuts until later this year, as recession concerns eased.
According to economic data, April U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations, with headline CPI and core CPI rising by 0.2% month-over-month. Year-over-year, CPI slowed to 2.3%, while core CPI held steady at 2.8%, matching forecasts.
Six of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 11 major sectors ended the day higher, with technology leading the gains. Healthcare was the weakest performer, posting the largest decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.64% to 42,140.43, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.72% to 5,886.55, and the Nasdaq surged 1.61% to 19,010.09.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.14% lower at 38,130.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.13%, ending the session at 8,279.60, led by gains in the Energy, IT, and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.32% at 24,658.40, and Nifty 500 rose 0.60% to 22,483.85.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.86% to 3,403.95, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 1.21% to 3,943.21.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 2.30% higher at 23,640.65.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.55%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.41%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 0.64%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.11%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.18% at $62.91/bbl, and Brent was down 1.13% at $65.88/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices dipped as traders anticipated a U.S. inventory build, despite support from a U.S.-China tariff pause and easing demand concerns amid broader geopolitical and trade-related developments.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.81% to $3.581.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.26% at $3,239.34, Silver was down 0.44% to $32.953, and Copper fell 0.49% to $4.7000.</li>
<li>Gold prices fell in Asia as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and soft U.S. inflation data reduced safe-haven demand.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.03%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.63% to 101.35, USD/JPY was down 1.15% to 145.81, and USD/AUD fell 0.20% to 1.5421.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar fell further on Wednesday after weaker April inflation data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Gain, Europe Dips, Dollar Pressured By Soft Inflation Data - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Consumer prices in the U.S. eased faster than expected in April, with fresh tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump appearing not to have a swift and tangible impact on the cost of living. 
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.3% higher compared to a year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, missing economists' expectations of 2.4% and the previous reading. 
The monthly gain was 0.2%, rebounding from a prior decline of 0.1%, yet falling short of a 0.3% forecasted.
The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy categories, rose to 2.8% on an annual basis, unchanged from both the previous and expected 2.8%. Month over month, it increased 0.2%, inching higher from the 0.1% uptick in March but below expectations of 0.3%
Shelter costs rose 0.3% in April, contributing to over half of the total monthly increase in the overall consumer price index.
Airline fares, used vehicles, communication services and apparel were among the key categories that saw price declines in April.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>April 2025</th>
<th>March 2025</th>
<th>Forecast</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Headline CPI (YoY)</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Headline CPI (MoM)</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core CPI (YoY)</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core CPI (MoM)</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Does This Mean For The Fed?</h3>
Before the release, interest rate futures reflected slim odds of policy easing. CME FedWatch data showed just an 8% chance of a rate cut in June, and 36% in July. 
Markets priced in only 60 basis points—0.6 percentage points—of total cuts by the end of 2025, well below earlier expectations for more aggressive easing.
Yet the modest progress is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve toward near-term rate cuts, as markets remain cautious amid persistent inflation risks.
Inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, and with shelter and services inflation proving sticky, policymakers may choose to keep borrowing costs elevated through the second half of the year.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar And Yields Ease Slightly</h3>
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) slightly eased 0.1%, down following Monday's sharp 1.3% rally. The 2-year Treasury yield edged down to 3.98%. 
U.S. stock futures, which had rallied on Monday after news of a U.S.-China tariff truce, were mixed in premarket trading as traders recalibrated inflation and interest rate expectations.
Futures on the S&amp;P 500 index were up 0.2%, while contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%. 
Read now: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45368550/apple-may-up-its-numbers-amid-china-tariff-truce-trump-talks-500-billion-us-investment-after-tim-cook-call">Apple May &#8216;Up Its Numbers&#8217; Amid China Tariff Truce: Trump Talks $500 Billion US Investment After Tim Cook Call</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Inflation Eases In April As Trump's Tariffs Don't Push Prices Higher

On Monday, May 12, U.S. markets closed sharply higher after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day temporary tariff reduction, easing trade tensions that had escalated since April. The S&amp;P 500 reached its highest level since early March. Investors shifted toward riskier assets, prompting a relief rally, though analysts warned of potential long-term complications.
In economic news, the U.S. government reported a $258 billion budget surplus for April, marking a 23% increase from last year.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher on Monday, led by technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services, while utilities declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.81% to 42,410.10, the S&amp;P 500 gained 3.26% to 5,844.19, and the Nasdaq surged 4.35% to 18,708.34.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Tuesday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.54% higher at 38,224.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.43%, ending the session at 8,269.00, led by gains in the IT, Energy, and Healthcare sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was down 1.42% at 24,567.90, and Nifty 500 fell 0.74% to 22,344.45.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.17% to 3,374.87, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.15% at 3,896.26.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 1.87% lower at 23,108.27.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45368852/trump-lowers-de-minimis-tariff-on-chinese-imports-from-120-to-54-pauses-200-postal-fee-amid-90-day-trade-shift" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Lowers De Minimis Tariff On Chinese Imports From 120% To 54%, Pauses $200 Postal Fee Amid 90-Day Trade Shift</a>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.01%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.02%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 rose 0.05%.</li>
<li>The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.01%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.65% at $62.34/bbl, and Brent was up 0.48% at $65.28/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose, supported by strong fuel demand, though gains were capped by rising OPEC+ supply and uncertainty over the lasting impact of the U.S.-China trade truce.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.93% to $3.680.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.87% at $3,255.44, Silver was up 1.83% to $33.225, and Copper rose 0.80% to $4.6580.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.43%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.26% to 101.56, USD/JPY was down 0.36% to 147.90, and USD/AUD fell 0.60% to 1.5600.</li>
<li>The dollar eased slightly on Tuesday but held most of its gains from the previous session, driven by optimism over the U.S.-China tariff truce.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Trade Mixed Following US-China Tariff Deal Optimism - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The United States and China agreed to slash their retaliatory tariffs by over 100 percentage points, pausing a spiraling trade war that had threatened<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s"> to choke global growth.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's In The Deal?</h3>
The agreement establishes a 90-day reset, slashing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%, starting May 14. 
The decision stems from high-level negotiations in Geneva, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The truce halts one of the steepest protectionist escalations in recent history, following President Donald Trump's aggressive "Liberation Day" trade tariffs launched on April 2.
"We reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels," Bessent said in a press conference. 
"Both countries represented their national interests very well, but we concluded we have shared interest in balanced trade."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariff Truce Cools Recession And Inflation Risks</h3>
The tariff rollback offers more than diplomatic relief — it also addresses growing fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and resurgent inflation. By averting the triple-digit import taxes that threatened to choke global trade, the deal removes a significant source of economic uncertainty that had weighed on business investment and consumer confidence.
Recession probabilities have sharply declined in response. 
The latest market-based forecast from Kalshi shows a 46% chance of a U.S. recession this year, down from 60% at the end of April, reflecting improving sentiment. Notably, consumer spending and corporate earnings had begun showing early signs of strain under the tariff shock imposed in April.
On the inflation front, the agreement is expected to ease price pressures on goods most impacted by the trade war — including electronics, automotive parts and industrial equipment.
Ahead of Tuesday's official April Consumer Price Index report, economists expect a return to monthly inflation growth: headline prices are forecast to rise 0.3%, reversing March's 0.1% dip. Core inflation is also expected to rise 0.3%, while annual inflation rates are seen holding steady at 2.4% for headline and 2.8% for core.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Markets Cheered</h3>
U.S. equity futures soared as the news hit, with futures on the S&amp;P 500 climbing 3.13% to 5,836.66, those on the Nasdaq 100 jumping 4.05%, and Dow futures up 2.62%. 
The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – surged 1.4%, with the greenback rallying 2% against the Japanese yen. 
Meanwhile, 2-year Treasury yields rose 10 basis points to 4%, as traders dialed back expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. The odds of a June cut fell to 11%, down from 25% a week ago, per CME FedWatch.
Gold – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) – dropped 2.9%, with investors rotating out of safe havens, and oil climbed 3.9% to $63.40 amid improving global demand prospects.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Who Wins On Wall Street?</h3>
U.S. equities rallied sharply as investors welcomed the truce between Washington and Beijing. 
Trade-sensitive and consumer-facing stocks led the premarket advance, reflecting relief over lower input costs and reduced supply chain disruption. Technology and industrials also posted notable gains.
Top Gainers – S&amp;P 500
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stanley Black &amp; Decker Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWK#NYSE">SWK</a>)</td>
<td>+12.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBY#NYSE">BBY</a>)</td>
<td>+10.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHP#NASDAQ">MCHP</a>)</td>
<td>+9.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEHC#NASDAQ">GEHC</a>)</td>
<td>+8.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NRG#NYSE">NRG</a>)</td>
<td>+8.08%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Top Premarket Gainers – Nasdaq 100
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Microchip Technology Inc.</td>
<td>+9.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEHC#NASDAQ">GEHC</a>)</td>
<td>+8.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)</td>
<td>+8.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>+8.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ON#NASDAQ">ON</a>)</td>
<td>+8.02%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Top Premarket Losers – S&amp;P 500
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>)</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GILD#NASDAQ">GILD</a>)</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABBV#NYSE">ABBV</a>)</td>
<td>-3.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>)</td>
<td>-3.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WAB#NYSE">WAB</a>)</td>
<td>-3.17%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling">Apple, Amazon, Nvidia Rise In Monday Premarket As US, China Agree To 90-Day Tariff Truce: &#8216;Neither Side Wants A Decoupling&#8217;</a><span class="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-pan-x: ; --tw-pan-y: ; --tw-pinch-zoom: ; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-gradient-from-position: ; --tw-gradient-via-position: ; --tw-gradient-to-position: ; --tw-ordinal: ; --tw-slashed-zero: ; --tw-numeric-figure: ; --tw-numeric-spacing: ; --tw-numeric-fraction: ; --tw-ring-inset: ; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-blur: ; --tw-brightness: ; --tw-contrast: ; --tw-grayscale: ; --tw-hue-rotate: ; --tw-invert: ; --tw-saturate: ; --tw-sepia: ; --tw-drop-shadow: ; --tw-backdrop-blur: ; --tw-backdrop-brightness: ; --tw-backdrop-contrast: ; --tw-backdrop-grayscale: ; --tw-backdrop-hue-rotate: ; --tw-backdrop-invert: ; --tw-backdrop-opacity: ; --tw-backdrop-saturate: ; --tw-backdrop-sepia: ; --tw-contain-size: ; --tw-contain-layout: ; --tw-contain-paint: ; --tw-contain-style: ;"></li>
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Wall Street Rips Higher As Tariff Truce Halts US–China Economic Escalation

On Friday, May 9th, U.S. markets closed mixed, as investors focused on Trump&#8217;s call to lower Chinese tariffs ahead of weekend trade talks. While earnings remained strong, concerns over trade tensions and economic risks kept markets subdued. Energy stocks gained, but healthcare lagged, and Fed officials warned of growing tariff-related risks.
According to economic data, U.S. jobless claims dropped by 13,000 to 228,000, beating the 230,000 estimate, while nonfarm labor productivity fell by 0.8%, slightly worse than the expected 0.7% decline.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher Friday, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, and energy. Health care and communication services declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.29% at 41,249.38, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.07% to 5,659.91, and the Nasdaq was almost flat at 17,928.92.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.42% higher at 37,660.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.03%, ending the session at 8,233.50, led by gains in the Energy, Resources, and Metals &amp; Mining sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 3.81% at 24,924.05, and Nifty 500 rose 3.84% to 22,512.15.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.82% to 3,369.24, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 1.16% to 3,890.61.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 2.98% higher at 23,549.46.</li>
<li>The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause and mutual tariff cuts, easing fears of further escalation. Stocks and currencies rallied, though some high levies remain and economic risks linger.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple, Amazon, Nvidia Rise In Monday Premarket As U.S., China Agree To 90-Day Tariff Truce: &#8216;Neither Side Wants A Decoupling&#8217;</a>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 1.85%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index gained 1.12%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 1.51%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.42%.</li>
<li>European stocks rose on hopes of a China-U.S. trade deal, oil prices climbed, and UniCredit posted record profits. Meanwhile, markets eyed a likely ECB rate cut in June.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 3.10% at $62.91/bbl, and Brent was up 2.88% at $65.69/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.55% to $3.816.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 3.69% at $3,220.96, Silver was down 1.96% to $32.265, and Copper rose 0.11% to $4.6570.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 2.20%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 2.82%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 3.80%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. dollar index gained 1.31% to 101.66, the USD/JPY rose 1.89% to 148.11, and the USD/AUD rose 0.25% to 1.5635.</li>
<li>The dollar jumped to a one-month high after a U.S.-China tariff truce boosted investor confidence, lifting it sharply against the yen and Swiss franc. Easing geopolitical tensions and optimism over further trade talks also supported gains.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Advance On China-US Tariff Pause, Oil Gains 3% - Global Markets Today While US Slept

After a trade-induced slowdown bruised the economy in early 2025 and with another dip forecast for this coming fall, Wells Fargo says the Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates aggressively amid <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">deteriorating labor market conditions. </a>
In an outlook shared this week, the investment bank&#8217;s economic team updated its U.S. outlook and reaffirmed that while a full-blown recession may still be avoided, a period of painful stagnation and elevated inflation lies directly ahead.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">&#8216;Trade War Impact Is Just Getting Started&#8217;</h3>
The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter, largely due to a massive swing in trade flows. Net exports subtracted 4.8 percentage points from GDP, the largest drag on trade in over five decades.
Import volumes surged 41.3% on an annualized basis as businesses rushed to stockpile goods before tariffs kicked in on April 2. That front-loading of demand distorted the early-year data. 
Yet, &#8220;the economy is not out of the woods yet,&#8221; the report noted. 
According to Wells Fargo, after a growth rebound in the second quarter, the economy is expected to contract 1.5% in the third quarter. 
&#8220;We anticipate some stomach-turning turbulence this year, particularly in the third quarter,&#8221; the bank said. 
Wells Fargo indicated that the economy will hit an &#8220;air pocket&#8221; later this year as consumer and business spending drop off after a rush to buy goods ahead of new tariffs.
The effective tariff rate is estimated at 15%, well above the pre-tariff 2.3% average. Wells Fargo is not expecting a return to those lower levels anytime soon—even if some dealmaking reduces headline rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jobs: Hiring Slows, Layoffs Loom</h3>
Job creation is cooling. After averaging 133,000 monthly payroll additions in the first quarter, hiring is expected to nearly stall later this year. 
The bank expects nonfarm payrolls to slow to an average of 25,000 in the third quarter and then turn negative by 17,000 during the last quarter of the year.
Initial jobless claims rose to 241,000 in late April, the second-highest print in six months. Continued claims have been trending up since 2022. 
Wells Fargo forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Fed Will Step In</h3>
Despite inflation remaining above target, Wells Fargo expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as labor market conditions deteriorate. The baseline projection includes a 100 basis point cut in 2025, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, followed by two quarter-point moves.
The bank forecasts the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.50%, down from the current 4.50% upper bound. The key assumption is that the Fed will "look through" the tariff-driven uptick in inflation as long as longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored.
Such a projection is well below current market pricing, which expects about 65 basis points of cumulative easing through December 2025.
In 2026, Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold steady as growth rebounds and inflation settles closer to target. The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to end 2025 at 4.00% and rise modestly to 4.25% by the end of 2026.
&#8220;The second half of this year could be the most challenging period for the greenback, a period during which the U.S. economy slows to a stall and the Fed eases monetary policy,&#8221; Wells Fargo said. 
The U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), is down 7.5% year-to-date.
Economists at the U.S. investment bank expected the dollar to rebound in 2026 as rising fiscal stimulus boosts domestic activity and as the Fed ends its easing phase.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Federal Reserve

Wells Fargo Sees Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts As 'Stomach-Turning' Turbulence For Economy Looms

On Thursday, May 8th, U.S. markets closed higher after a new trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. lowered tariffs and secured major Boeing orders, boosting airline and industrial shares. Investors were further encouraged by Trump's hints at meaningful China talks.
Markets rose broadly, with small-cap and semiconductor stocks gaining despite ongoing concerns over inflation and the labor market.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000 last week, beating estimates of 230,000. Labor productivity dropped 0.8% in Q1, more than the expected 0.7% decline.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose on Thursday, led by industrials, consumer discretionary, and energy, while health care and utilities closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.62% at 41,368.45, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.58% to 5,663.94, and the Nasdaq rose 1.07% to 17,928.14.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.51% higher at 37,485.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.48%, ending the session at 8,231.20, led by gains in the IT, Financials, and Consumer Staples sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was down 1.14% at 23,996.65, and Nifty 500 fell 0.84% to 21,662.20.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.30% to 3,342.00, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.17% at 3,846.16.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.40% higher at 22,867.74.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.40%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.58%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 rose 0.67%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.46%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.72% at $60.93/bbl, and Brent was up 1.59% at $63.84/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose, heading for weekly gains, as U.S.-China trade tensions eased and Britain reached a trade deal. OPEC+ output shifts and Iran sanctions added supply pressures.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 1.56% to $3.648.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.72% at $3,329.81, Silver was up 0.49% to $32.775, and Copper fell 0.02% to $4.6030.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.20%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.22% to 100.42, USD/JPY was down 0.45% to 145.21, and USD/AUD slid 0.01% to 1.5626.</li>
<li>The dollar rose this week on U.S.-China trade hopes and fewer Fed rate cut bets, while the euro, yen, and sterling slipped; bitcoin and Asian currencies surged.</li>
</ul>
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Asia Markets Mixed, Eurozone Gains; Oil Rises On Trade Deal Hopes - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Bank of America is doubling down on its call that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025, underscoring the central bank's growing discomfort with a dual threat of rising inflation and unemployment revealed at <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">this week's policy meeting.</a>
In a note shared Thursday, BofA economist Aditya Bhave said the key takeaway from the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting was "an upgrade to the Fed&#8217;s assessment of economic uncertainty." 
Bhave referred to two new lines in the Fed's statement: first, that uncertainty "has increased further," and second, "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hawkish Tilt As Fed Acknowledges Stagflation Risks</h3>
While the Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Jerome Powell's press conference took a cautious, hawkish tone compared to March.
Powell repeatedly emphasized the central bank's comfort with staying on hold and made clear that the Fed would not act preemptively—unlike in 2019 when it delivered three rate cuts as inflation was running well below target.
That's not the case today. Core inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for four straight years, giving policymakers far less room to maneuver. 
Bhave said Powell's message was clear: "Uncertainty is high, and the Fed is comfortable staying on hold until there is greater clarity."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Higher Bar For Cuts, Markets Start To Adjust</h3>
According to Bhave, this approach means the hurdle for a June cut is now significantly higher. 
Market expectations have already begun to reflect that shift. 
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a June rate cut tumbled to 16% on Thursday &#8211; down from 28% before Powell's remarks. The chances of a July move are 65%, down from 92% a week ago.
BofA's base case assumes a steady labor market paired with renewed inflationary pressures—conditions that effectively rule out any Fed rate cuts.
"If our base case of a steady labor market and rising inflation is correct, we don&#8217;t see a path to cuts in 2025," Bhave said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Implications For Markets</h3>
BofA rate strategist Mark Cabana said front-end Treasury yields could move higher as investors increasingly price out near-term rate cuts. He also recommends staying underweight in longer-dated Treasuries, where issuance—particularly in the 30-year tenor—continues to exceed demand.
BofA maintains a broadly bearish stance on the U.S. dollar despite adopting a more hawkish-than-consensus view on the rate outlook. Cabana said the dollar remains "notably dislocated from short-term rate differentials," and that this misalignment is unlikely to correct through subtle shifts in Fed language alone.
"We remain broadly dollar-bearish, and negative sentiment more broadly has increased over the past month, with many re-thinking broader allocations to U.S. assets and/or FX hedges," the investment bank said.
The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – has fallen 8% year-to-date, on track for its worst year since 2017. 
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Forget Rate Cuts This Year, Bank Of America Warns After Powell's Hawkish Tone

The Federal Reserve kept its fed funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, a widely expected move that marks the third consecutive <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">pause in interest-rate policy. </a>
"Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further," the Fed noted in its post-meeting statement. 
The May meeting was the first since President Donald Trump's early April announcement of new trade tariffs.
The Federal Reserve noted that recent indicators point to continued solid growth in economic activity, while hinting that volatility in net exports has distorted the data, a reference to the negative GDP reading in the first quarter.
Yet, the Committee emphasized that "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen," introducing this new language into the May policy statement.
The Fed reiterated its data-dependent stance, emphasizing that future policy actions will be assessed "meeting by meeting," based on economic data, the evolving outlook, and balance of risks. This measured approach suggests that policymakers remain flexible in their response to shifting economic conditions.
Attention now turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to hold his presser at 2:30 p.m. ET. Powell is expected to field questions on the implications of the Trump tariffs, recession risks, inflation trajectory, and the growing political pressure from Trump, who has publicly called for lower interest rates.
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45258146/all-eyes-on-powell-what-betting-markets-expect-him-to-say-wednesday">All Eyes On Powell: What Betting Markets Expect Him To Say Wednesday</a>
Leading into the decision, futures markets were pricing in a 28% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the June meeting, rising to 73% by July. Traders currently anticipate approximately 65 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, equivalent to nearly three standard rate cuts.
Minutes prior to the Fed statement, speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for the new U.S. ambassador to China, President Trump said he has no intention of rolling back the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and is not seeking a broad range of tariff exemptions.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market reactions </h3>
Stocks remained broadly unchanged minutes after the Federal Open Market Committee statement. 
The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – was trading at 5,608 points, flat on the day. 
The U.S. dollar index – followed by the  Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – fell slightly.
Treasury yields trended lower, with yields on the 10-year Treasury note falling from 4.29% to 4.26%. 
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Photo: RozenskiP / Shutterstock.com

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Warns Of Rising 'Uncertainty About The Economic Outlook'

On Tuesday, May 6th, U.S. markets closed lower, as Trump's tariff uncertainty shook investor confidence, prompting companies like Ford and Mattel to withdraw forecasts. Major indexes fell, with Palantir, Clorox, and DoorDash among the notable losers.
Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, as inflation concerns and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment.
In economic data, the trade deficit hit $140.5 billion, rising 14% from February as imports surged 4.4% to $419 billion, mainly due to higher consumer goods.
Nine of eleven S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by healthcare and consumer discretionary, while utilities and energy posted small gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.95% at 40,829.00, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.77% to 5,606.91, and the Nasdaq slid 0.87% to 17,689.66.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.20% lower at 36,755.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.33%, ending the session at 8,178.30, led by gains in the Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was up 0.10% at 24,405.05, and Nifty 500 rose 0.54% to 22,075.70.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.80% to 3,342.67, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.61% at 3,831.63.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.13% higher at 22,691.88.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.37%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index declined 0.17%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 slid 0.68%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.38%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.56% at $59.40/bbl, and Brent was up 0.37% at $62.39/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 3.87% to $3.597.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 1.16% at $3,383209, Silver was down 1.22% to $32.970, and Copper fell 1.54% to $4.7030.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.53%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.57%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.59%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.12% to 99.40, USD/JPY was up 0.47% to 143.22, and USD/AUD rose 0.36% to 1.5452.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Gain, Europe Slides And Gold Retreats - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Monday, May 5th, U.S. markets closed lower, ending their winning streaks, as markets reacted to Trump&#8217;s tariff on foreign films. Energy stocks lagged, Berkshire Hathaway stumbled after Buffett&#8217;s exit news, and Netflix, Amazon, and Paramount saw losses. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Fed decision amid rising inflation concerns and profit risks.
According to economic data, the ISM services PMI climbed to 51.6 in April, up from March&#8217;s nine-month low of 50.8, beating market expectations of 50.6.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by energy, consumer discretionary, and tech, while consumer staples edged higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.24% at 41,218.83, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.64% to 5,650.38, and the Nasdaq slid 0.74% to 17,844.24.
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Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>Japan&#8217;s market closed for the Greenery Day holiday.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.08%, ending the session at 8,151.40, led by losses in the Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Financials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.28% at 24,391.85, and Nifty 500 fell 1.03% to 24,391.85.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 1.13% to 3,316.11, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 1.01% to 3,808.54.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.70% higher at 22,662.71.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.90%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 1.22%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 slid 0.70%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.18%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.89% at $58.78/bbl, and Brent was up 2.86% at $61.95/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil rebounded after six declines, lifted by bargain hunting, China&#8217;s return, and technical factors, despite lingering concerns over rising OPEC+ supply and global demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 1.97% to $3.621.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 2.06% at $3,390.89, Silver was up 2.47% to $33.275, and Copper rose 0.04% to $4.7013.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.70%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.81%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.12%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.02% to 99.97, USD/JPY was down 0.26% to 143.31, and USD/AUD gained 0.36% to 1.5515.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar slipped as investors grew cautious over Trump&#8217;s trade policies and awaited the Fed decision.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Slips, Gold Nears $3,400 Again - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. services sector grew at its slowest pace in over 17 months in April, while inflationary pressures surged to an over two-year high, highlighting a troubling combination of weakening demand and rising costs fueled by trade tariff disruptions that could complicate the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Federal Reserve's path forward.</a>
According to data released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up from 50.8% in March to 51.6% in April, slightly above economists&#8217; expectations of 50.6. While this reading suggests continued growth, it&#8217;s the slowest expansion in activity since late 2023.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Pricing Pressures Intensify Despite Tepid Growth</h3>
ISM's subindex for prices paid, a key inflation gauge, jumped sharply from 60.9% in March to 65.1% in April, reaching the highest level since February 2023. 
This spike reflects intensifying cost pressures across the service economy, driven partly by rising import prices and the pass-through effects of tariffs.
&#8220;Regarding tariffs, respondents cited actual pricing impacts as concerns, more so than uncertainty and future pressures," said Steve Miller, chair of ISM's Services Business Survey Committee.
 "Respondents continue to mention federal agency budget cuts as a drag on business, but overall, results are improving."
The index for new orders rose from 50.4% to 52.3%, while the employment component climbed from 46.2% to 49% — still signaling contraction, but a less severe one.
 Business activity, however, moderated from 55.9 to 53.7, its softest growth pace since January, though it still marked the 59th consecutive month of expansion.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P Global Flags Stalling Momentum, Stagflation Risks</h3>
S&amp;P Global&#8217;s separate reading on the U.S. services sector painted a less optimistic picture. 
The firm downwardly revised its final Services PMI for April from a preliminary estimates of 51.4 points to 50.8 points, a steep decline from March&#8217;s 54.4 and the lowest since November 2022.
"While tariff announcements mean manufacturing dominates the news, a worrying backstory is developing in the vastly larger services economy," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global. 
"Business activity and hiring have come closer to stalling in April amid plunging business confidence."
Williamson indicated that services exports are falling at their fastest rate since 2022, while domestic demand appears to be softening. 
He added that tariffs are pushing up input costs, especially in consumer-facing sectors like restaurants and hospitality, and warned of the growing threat of stagflation, a toxic mix of stagnant growth and rising inflation.
S&amp;P Global's Composite PMI, which blends manufacturing and services activity to gauge overall private-sector performance, was also revised down from 51.2 to 50.6 in April. 
That marked the weakest expansion since December 2023 and brought the index dangerously close to the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks remained broadly unaltered following the PMI releases. 
The S&amp;P 500 index held losses of 0.5%, trading at 5,655 points by 10:20 a.m. ET, potentially ending a 9-day winning streak. The Nasdaq 100 — as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) — slipped 0.7%, dipping below the 20,000 mark, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed earlier losses to trade down 0.2%.
Within the S&amp;P 500, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) and EQT Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQT#NYSE">EQT</a>) were top gainers, each up around 3%. 
On the downside, Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZBH#NYSE">ZBH</a>), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSN#NYSE">TSN</a>) and ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ON#NASDAQ">ON</a>) were among the steepest losers, all sliding roughly 9% on the session.
The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – trimmed losses after the PMI reports, as higher price pressures led traders to scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.35%.
According to CME Group FedWatch, now there is only a 29% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by June, down from 35% on Friday.
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