L'intérêt à découvert pour iShares Silver Trust donne aux investisseurs une idée du degré auquel les investisseurs parient sur la baisse de l'action de iShares Silver Trust. Les données sur l'intérêt à découvert sont mises à jour toutes les deux semaines.

iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV), Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of silver.

iShares Silver Trust

SOLVAC SA by SOLVAC SA

SILVER DOLLAR RES INC by Silver Dollar Resources Inc.

Silver Dollar Resources Inc

SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD ORD by Silverlake Axis, Ltd.

Silverlake Axis Ltd

Sylvamo Corp

SILVER MINES LTD SYDNEY by Silver Mines Ltd., Sydney

Silver Mines Ltd

ETRACS Silver Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 21, 2033

iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners Fund

SILVER ONE RESOURCES ORD by Silver One Resources Inc.

Silver One Resources Inc

SILVER STAR PROPERTIES by SILVER STAR PROPERTIES REIT, INC

Silver Star Properties REIT Inc

SILVER TIGER METALS INC by Silver Tiger Metals Inc.

Silver Tiger Metals Inc

Solvay SA

Investors cautious about the Federal Reserve&#39;s September rate cut&mdash;confirmed at its mid-month meeting to be a full 50 basis points&mdash;and skeptical about the strength of the dollar have flocked to gold, sending the most famous safe haven commodity soaring to record highs. But there is only so much upside potential to gold, particularly given the attention that it has already drawn. For investors interested in diversifying beyond gold but still in search of a hedge against the dollar amid a new interest rate environment, silver provides a suitable alternative.
The price of silver has climbed at a pace just slightly slower than gold in the last year, surging by more than 29% in that time. Investors looking to stock up on physical metals may find that silver&#39;s lower price relative to gold makes it more accessible. It also has a strong array of applications, as its conductivity makes it an essential component of many electronics, solar components, and other products.
There are also ways to build indirect exposure to silver, either through a number of ETFs focused on the mining industry or through the stocks of individual silver mining firms. These companies tend to do well when the price of silver surges but are potentially separated from the volatility of the metal itself to some degree.
<h2>PAAS: Increased Resource Estimates, Earnings Growth Potential</h2>
Pan American Silver Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/paas#NYSE">PAAS</a>) is among the larger silver mining companies, with a market capitalization of $7.5 billion. This size is reflected in the firm&#39;s large portfolio of mines scattered throughout the Americas. One mine in particular&mdash;the La Colorada Skarn mine in Mexico&mdash;is notable as Pan American&#39;s highest-producing silver mine.
Pan American announced a significant increase in estimated silver resources at La Colorada earlier this month. The firm also has expansions planned in other mining sites as well. This news could be part of the reason analysts expect Pan American to more than double its earnings in the coming year.
The company is also favored by analysts because of its healthy free cash flow (over $102 million in the latest quarter), which gives it a healthy cushion to fund expansions of its mining efforts or dividend payments.
<h2>WPM: Solid Finances and Balance Sheet</h2>
Investors looking for stability in a mining stock should look to Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/wpm#NYSE">WPM</a>), which generated an impressive $234 million in operating cash flow last quarter. The firm carries a cash balance of over $500 million and no debt as of the end of the second quarter, making it ideally positioned to address a variety of business needs through the remainder of the year.
Wheaton is among the few mining stocks to generate net earnings rather than net losses last quarter.
This company is less of a targeted silver play than some others, however.
While Wheaton&#39;s silver production for the latest quarter did climb by 14% relative to a year earlier, silver production and sales remain just a small portion of the company&#39;s business, well behind gold.
<h2>NEM: Notable Dividend and Major Cash Influx</h2>
Newmont Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nem#NYSE">NEM</a>) is also one of the largest mining companies, but while other firms expand their operations, this company is making moves to streamline its business.
Like Wheaton above, its primary business is gold, though Newmont does maintain its silver mining operations as well.
Newmont has recently renewed its focus on high-production tier 1 mining assets, and in doing so plans to sell a number of its other mining projects.
In the process, Newmont could raise $2 billion.
This could boost its dividend yield and may be a factor among analysts forecasting earnings growth of more than 20% in the coming year.
<h2>Silver ETFs Offer Easy Exposure to Silver Without Storage Hassles</h2>
Silver ETFs offer investors an easy way of tracking the spot price of silver without having to face the challenges associated with holding, storing, and transporting physical silver. An under-the-radar silver ETF is the Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (ARCA:SIVR), which stands out for its strong performance over the last year&mdash;it is up more than 28% during that time&mdash;as well as its expense ratio of 0.30%, lower than popular competitor iShares Silver Trust ETF (ARCA:SLV) which stands at 0.50%.
The article &quot;<a href="https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-ideas/prepare-for-a-silver-surge-best-mining-stocks-to-watch-now/">Prepare for a Silver Surge: Best Mining Stocks to Watch Now</a>&quot; first appeared on MarketBeat.

Earnings

Large Cap

Mid Cap

News

Dividends

Commodities

Federal Reserve

Markets

Analyst Ratings

Trading Ideas

ETFs

PAAS

SIVR

Prepare for a Silver Surge: Best Mining Stocks to Watch Now

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-26_08h32_04.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Growing Optimism</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-china-bringing-optimism-wall-street-positioning-mu-mc-09262024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote the following about Micron earnings in advance:</li>
<li>Going into earnings, here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>Whisper numbers are below the consensus numbers. This is an oddity among AI stocks. Among AI stocks, whisper numbers have consistently been higher than consensus numbers.</li>
<li>Wall Street positioning is negative.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock has bounced off of the support zone.</li>
<li>Historically, when the foregoing factors are combined, the stock goes up after earnings.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows a strong up move in MU after earnings were released after the market closed yesterday.</li>
<li>The chart illustrates the value of understanding positioning and the big edge it gives to investors. Micron earnings were mediocre.  The real reason behind the strong move is negative Wall Street positioning.  If the same earnings would have come out a few months ago, when Wall Street positioning was very positive, the stock would have been down $20.  </li>
<li>The chart shows that in the premarket, MU is breaking above the resistance zone. If MU closes above the resistance zone shown on the chart, this zone will become a support zone.</li>
<li>The move up in MU stock is bringing in extremely aggressive buying in most semiconductor stocks in the premarket.&nbsp; In turn, the buying is becoming aggressive in most AI stocks in the premarket.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you details of China's stimulus plan.&nbsp; Now, with a potential addition, China's stimulus plan is about to become a bazooka.
<ul>
<li>China is considering injecting up to one trillion yuan into state owned banks for the purpose of expanding their capacity to loan more money.</li>
<li>Stocks in Hong Kong are up 4.2% and up 3.6% in Shanghai.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The strong move up in Chinese stocks brought in optimism first to Asian stocks, then to Europe, and now to the U.S. in a round robin fashion.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, deflation in China has helped U.S. inflation.&nbsp; Now all of the stimulus in China is going to start inflation in China.&nbsp; Some of that inflation is going to come back to the U.S. at a time when the Fed is aggressively cutting rates.&nbsp; All of this could spell trouble for the stock market down the road.&nbsp; However, for the time being, no one is connecting the dots as the party shifts to full swing.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Weekly initial claims came at 218K vs. 224K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture is strong</li>
<li>Durable orders came stronger than expected.&nbsp; Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>Headline Durable Orders came at 0.0% vs. -2.9% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable Orders Ex-Transportation came at 0.5% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Just released GDP data shows that economic growth is strong.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Q2 GDP Third Estimate came at 3.0% vs. 3.0% consensus.</li>
<li>GDP Deflator Third Estimate came at 2.5% vs. 2.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The foregoing economic data is bringing in aggressive buying in the stock market.&nbsp; The reason is that normally when the economy is this strong, the Fed is not aggressively cutting interest rates.&nbsp; Here, the economy is strong, and the Fed is aggressively cutting rates.</li>
<li>Here is the key question for prudent investors: Did the Fed make a mistake with the 50 bps cut?&nbsp; Stay tuned for more.</li>
<li>Powell comments are ahead and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying along with tech stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

General

$BTC

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

China Bazooka Brings Optimism To U.S. Stocks, Micron Earnings Show The Value Of Knowing Positioning

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-25_08h49_58.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Key To The AI Trade</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-micron-earnings-china-rate-cut-mu-mc-09252024">click here</a> for a chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Micron is one of the three largest semiconductor memory makers in the world.</li>
<li>The demand for high bandwidth memory for AI applications is rapidly increasing.</li>
<li>The chart shows Micron's last two earnings and the market reaction.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock peaked with a bearish engulfing candle. A bearish engulfing candle is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Arora signal was given to take partial profits.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, MU is long from $21.77 in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>The chart shows a very substantial drop in the stock.&nbsp; There are two reasons for the drop:
<ul>
<li>From a fundamental perspective, the demand for memory in smartphones has been soft.</li>
<li>At its peak, MU had become a crowded trade, and Wall Street positioning had become extremely positive. These are the two factors that often lead to big drops.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Going into earnings, here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>Whisper numbers are below the consensus numbers.&nbsp; This is an oddity among AI stocks.&nbsp; Among AI stocks, whisper numbers have consistently been higher than consensus numbers.</li>
<li>Wall Street positioning is negative.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock has bounced off of the support zone.</li>
<li>Historically, when the foregoing factors are combined, the stock goes up after earnings.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Micron earnings and the stock reaction will be an important key to the AI trade.</li>
<li>Some of Micron's business is a commodity business and therefore does not have the same moat as Nvidia (NVDA).&nbsp; Nonetheless, investors should be cognizant that many AI stocks have become crowded trades and Wall Street positioning is extremely positive.&nbsp; This is the fifth stage of a change.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ppp-long-trade-ppp">click here</a> to see the five stages of a long trade.&nbsp; &nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/five-stages-of-a-short-trade-ppp">click here</a> for five stages of a short trade.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, investors should pay attention to the protection band as well as posts calling for hedging AI stocks.</li>
<li>We have seen sharing with you the stimulus measures the Chinese government has been taking and the resulting rally that is taking place in the Chinese stock market.&nbsp; The latest is that China has now cut the one year policy rate by the largest amount ever, from 2.3% to 2%.</li>
<li>The Arora Report has followed China continuously for the last 17 years.  The two ETFs of interest are Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>). </li>
<li>What happens in China has a major impact on all markets around the globe,including the U.S. stock market.&nbsp; The world is interconnected.&nbsp; Even investors who do not invest outside of the U.S. need to pay attention to what is happening in the rest of the world.
<ul>
<li>The Arora Report has continuously followed economic indicators in 23 countries over the last 17 years.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consumer confidence came at 98.7 vs. 102.9 consensus.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, this data went against the soft landing and no landing scenarios.&nbsp; However, for the time being, the stock market celebrated lower consumer confidence on the hope that falling consumer confidence would lead the Fed to another 50 bps cut in interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
Footer:The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Tech

ASHR

Micron Earnings Ahead - Key To AI Trade; Biggest One Year Rate Cut In China

Macro Economic Events

WIIM

Economics

Silver is trading higher following the Fed's recent rate cut.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-24_08h10_11.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">AI Exuberance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-exuberance-copper-oil-rise-pwr-mc-09242024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Quanta Services Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWR#NYSE">PWR</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of PWR stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Artificial intelligence data centers are power hungry.&nbsp; In the stock market, exuberance for stocks that help power AI data centers has reached a fever pitch.</li>
<li>The chart shows PWR stock has broken out.&nbsp; Quanta Services is a major contractor for utilities.</li>
<li>Volume on the chart shows that the volume on the breakout was higher than the recent volume, but not as high as it should have been to generate high conviction in the breakout.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that PWR stock is very overbought.</li>
<li>The technical breakout is bringing in aggressive buying in PWR stock from investors who trade only on technicals.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is aggressively buying PWR stock.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, PWR stock is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; The Arora Report is long from $37.&nbsp;</li>
<li>From a valuation perspective, PWR stock is now expensive.&nbsp; It is trading at a trailing PE of 56 and a forward PE of 29.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with readers about China:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a conference tomorrow.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>China is making a big move.
<ul>
<li>People's Bank of China (PBC) is lowering its reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points.</li>
<li>The bank has lowered its seven day repurchase rate by 20 basis points.</li>
<li>The bank may soon lower its prime rate.</li>
<li>The down payment requirement for second homes has been lowered to 15% from 25%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Chinese stocks are jumping.&nbsp; Stocks in Hong Kong jumped 4.1% and 4.2% in Shanghai.</li>
<li>Investors in the U.S. should not underestimate the impact of these moves in China. &nbsp;The moves are generating position sentiment.</li>
<li>Copper, steel, oil, and other commodities are moving up on the China moves.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Copper stock Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  The Arora Report also has a short term trade on oil ETF United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).</li>
<li>The Conference Board's consumer confidence data will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is USO.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Asia

Power For AI Exuberance Reaches Fever Pitch – Quanta Breaks Out; Copper And Oil Rise On Chinese Move

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-23_08h36_43.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tech Stocks Approach Resistance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-tech-stocks-resistance-china-stimulus-qqq-mc-09232024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that tech stocks, as represented by QQQ, are approaching the resistance zone.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that at a time when Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&amp;P 500 (SPX) have hit a new high, QQQ has not. The reason is that tech stocks are underperforming.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that QQQ is overbought.</li>
<li>We shared with you prior to the Fed rate cut that long bonds may not respond as investors expected.&nbsp; That call continues to prove spot on every day.&nbsp; Long bonds are falling again this morning.&nbsp; This will start impacting the stock market in due course unless Fed speakers come out and make more dovish comments.&nbsp; For the time being, the momo crowd is oblivious.</li>
<li>In Lebanon and Northern Israel, Hezbollah and Israel are inching towards a full scale war.&nbsp; U.S. diplomacy is in full swing to stop a full scale war.&nbsp; The momo crowd is oblivious, but prudent investors should pay attention to developments in the Middle East.</li>
<li>Sentiment has been lifted all across the globe on government stimulus hopes in China.
<ul>
<li>The People&#8217;s Bank of China (PBC) cut the 14 day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.85%.</li>
<li>Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a conference tomorrow.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
European stocks are holding up on more rate cut hopes in spite of unexpected economic contraction.
<ul>
<li>Eurozone flash Manufacturing PMI came at 44.8 vs. 45.7.</li>
<li>Eurozone flash Services PMI came at 50.5 vs. 52.3.</li>
<li>A number less than 50 indicates economic contraction.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Harris has now fully jumped on to the crypto bandwagon after watching heavy campaign contributions from the crypto industry to the Trump campaign.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on Harris support.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Tech Stocks Approach Resistance Zone, Full Scale War Potential In Middle East, China Stimulus Hopes

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-20_08h35_26-1.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nuclear Power Revival</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-quad-witching-nuclear-power-revival-ceg-mc-09202024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CEG#NASDAQ">CEG</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of CEG is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>To feed the power hungry AI data centers, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) is signing a power purchase agreement with CEG.</li>
<li>The chart shows the gap up on CEG news.</li>
<li>The chart shows that CEG is in the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that CEG is very overbought.&nbsp; An overbought stock tends to pullback.</li>
<li>Based on the quantitative screen of The Arora Report's ZYX Change Method, CEG is way overvalued at this time.&nbsp; However, CEG will benefit from AI, and as such, it is on our radar to give a signal when it is appropriate.</li>
<li>To provide the power, CEG will restart Three Mile Island Unit 1.&nbsp; This reactor was shut down about five years ago due to economic reasons.&nbsp; Three Mile Island Unit 2 is famous for a partial melt down, which caused the most serious nuclear accident on U.S. soil.&nbsp; In addition to CEG, there are opportunities in other energy producers that will help meet the massive power demand for AI.
<ul>
<li>Quanta Services Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWR#NYSE">PWR</a>) is a contractor to electric utilities and is benefiting from the AI power demand.&nbsp; As full disclosure, PWR is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. PWR is long from $37.&nbsp; </li>
<li>First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>), which provides solar power to data centers. As full disclosure, FSLR is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>A new name that is on The Arora Report&#8217;s radar is Vistra Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>). As full disclosure, a signal may be given when appropriate.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>We shared with readers yesterday that quad witching was to the upside.
<ul>
<li>A part of the strength in the stock market yesterday was due to quad witching and not due to the Fed's 50 bps interest rate cut.</li>
<li>About $5 trillion notional value of stock derivatives are expiring today.&nbsp; This is a huge amount but not a record.</li>
<li>This morning, expiring futures are exerting downward pressure on the market after yesterday's runup.&nbsp; Futures are expiring this morning.</li>
<li>Options will expire in the afternoon.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Historically, gains due to quad witching tend to reverse in the following week and sometimes even on the expiration day.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
In a relief to U.S. stock investors, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates unchanged.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and MSFT.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Trump's advocacy continues to bring buying into Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>). Here is the key question: Will bitcoin whales take advantage of the strength to sell as is their pattern?
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

FSLR

$5 Trillion Worth Of Quad Witching, AI Leading To Revivial Of Nuclear Power

Gold and silver are trading higher after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 bps.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-18_08h25_17.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Credibility At Stake</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fed-day-rate-cut-wall-street-positioning-spy-mc-09182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of  SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is near the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally has been on low volume.&nbsp; This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI has just entered the overbought zone.&nbsp; This indicates that the stock market can go either way.</li>
<li>The chart shows that if the stock market does not break out and turns down from here, it will be tracing a triple top.&nbsp; A triple top is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET today and will be followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
<li>Understanding Wall Street positioning can give investors a big edge.&nbsp; Wall Street is positioned for a 50 bps cut and highly dovish comments.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Further in The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify very dovish commentary.&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed complies with the momo crowd's demands, the Fed's credibility will be hurt in the long run.&nbsp; There may be unintended consequences.&nbsp; One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.&nbsp; The other potential unintended consequence may be an unhealthy drop in the dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, S&amp;P 500 at 6000 is a magnet for traders.</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, the momo crowd will aggressively buy.&nbsp; However, it is not clear how smart money will react.&nbsp; There is a fair probability of smart money taking advantage of the strength to sell.</li>
<li>If the Fed cuts by 25 basis points, then the market reaction will depend on commentary and the dot plot.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed cuts by 25 bps and the commentary is not dovish, there is a downside risk to the stock market.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors need to be very mindful that the Fed is about to cut interest rates at a time when the stock market is near its all time high, house prices are near all time highs, and the economy is strong.&nbsp; Historically, the Fed cuts interest rates when the economy is weak or in recession, house prices are falling, and the stock market is weak.&nbsp; By aggressively cutting interest rates now accompanied by highly dovish commentary, the Fed risks its long term credibility.&nbsp; &nbsp; Highly dovish action now also has the potential to start rampant speculation in stocks, housing, and cryptos.</li>
<li>A 50 bps cut and highly dovish commentary will be helpful for a Harris election.&nbsp; The Fed will never admit it, but there is a school of thought that the Fed wants to help Harris win the election.&nbsp; The reason is that Trump has already said he will not reappoint Powell.&nbsp; Further, Trump has said that he will interfere with the Fed.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Housing Starts</h3>
Housing starts came at 1356K vs. 1320K consensus.
Building permits came at 1475K vs. 1415K consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, activity among builders is increasing as they anticipate falling interest rates will let loose pent up demand.&nbsp; This will increase economic activity, which in turn is good for the stock market.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying in anticipation of a 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; Bullish crypto gurus are hopeful that a 50 bps cut will take bitcoin to a new high.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Fed Credibility At Stake - Wall Street Positioned For 50 BPS Cut And Highly Dovish Comments

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-17_08h24_10.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Against Prevailing Wisdom</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-microsoft-buyback-trump-crypto-plan-msft-mc-09172024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after touching the low band of the support zone, MSFT stock has moved up in a straight line.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move up in the early trade on three announcements:
<ul>
<li>Microsoft is announcing a new $60B stock buyback program.&nbsp; This matches the largest buyback program ever from Microsoft.</li>
<li>Microsoft is increasing the dividend by 10%.</li>
<li>Microsoft is introducing more AI features in Office 365 and a new collaborative tool named Copilot Pages.&nbsp; This new tool allows users to collaborate and edit data taken from Copilot on a single page. The company is also introducing a new agent builder allowing users to build AI powered agents.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Microsoft is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. The Arora Report has just issued a new buy zone.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing the news from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) as return to normalcy after the pandemic – Amazon will require workers to be at the office five days a week.</li>
<li>The stock market is running as Wall Street positions for a 50 bps rate cut. 50 bps rate cut has now become the prevailing wisdom.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the data just released is very important because it is the last piece of economic data that the FOMC is going to see before making its rate decision tomorrow.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the just released retail sales data does not support a 50 bps cut. &nbsp;Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.1% vs. -0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Prior retail sales were revised to 1.1% from 1.0%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in AMZN, MSFT, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Trump has released details of his crypto project. The project is called World Liberty Financial.  63% of the coins will be bought by the public, 20% will be owned by the founding team, and 17% will be for user rewards.
The release of Trump's crypto project details is bringing in buying in all cryptos, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Biggest Even Microsoft Buyback, New Retail Sales Go Against Prevailing Wisdom, Trump Crypto Project

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-16_08h12_24.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Silver Is The New AI Play</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-silver-new-ai-play-slv-mc-09162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart is a monthly chart to give you the long term perspective.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, silver has the potential to become an AI play.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Silver is extensively used in electronics that go into AI data centers.</li>
<li>AI data centers are power hungry.&nbsp; Some data centers are being built next to huge solar farms.&nbsp; Silver is used in solar cells.&nbsp; First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) is the leader in utility scale solar farms.&nbsp; As full disclosure, First Solar is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Silver also moves with gold.&nbsp; We have previously shared with readers that gold has hit a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that silver is far from a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows the resistance zone.&nbsp; If the resistance zone is broken, silver can go much higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trader magnet for silver.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that silver is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought commodities tend to pullback.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street positioning in silver is very low.&nbsp; This can lead to an explosive up move once the move starts going.&nbsp; Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Investors who learn Wall Street mechanics gain important edges.&nbsp; It is difficult to learn the nuances of Wall Street mechanics because Wall Street professionals keep these nuances close to the chest due to their very high value.&nbsp; </li>
<li>The move in silver will come down to three factors:
<ul>
<li>If the Fed lowers rates by 25 bps or 50 bps</li>
<li>How gold reacts to the Fed</li>
<li>Does a short squeeze start in silver? &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, silver is prone to short squeezes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The move in silver in 2021 was the result of silver becoming a meme crowd favorite and the resulting short squeeze.</li>
<li>The Arora Report gold and silver ratings are used across the globe by individual investors, hedge funds, institutions, bullion dealers, and jewelers.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that The Arora Report gave a back up the truck and buy silver signal when silver was in the $17 range. The Arora Report gave a sell signal on silver hours before silver peaked.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Not only that, right at the peak around $50, The Arora Report gave a signal to short sell signal and gave a target for silver to fall to $34 in a matter of weeks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Silver ETF SLV is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Last week a big weekly reversal occurred in S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; Last week was one of the best weeks.&nbsp; The prior week was one of the worst weeks.&nbsp; Since 1957, there have been 10 such reversals when the stock market was near a high.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 has been higher an average of 5.2% over the next three months 90% of the time.</li>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) is falling today after Ming-Chi Kuo said that demand for the iPhone 16 is lower than expected.&nbsp; In the past, analysis from Ming-Chi Kuo has almost always proven spot on.</li>
<li>This is a Fed week.&nbsp; FOMC will announce its decision at 2pm ET on Wednesday.</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is buying, but some selling is coming in tech stocks on Ming-Chi Kuo's report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing light selling.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Silver Is The New AI Play – Trader Magnet Is Much Higher, Fed Week

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-13_08h58_01.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Running On 50 bps Rumor</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-gold-new-high-50-bps-cut-gld-mc-09132024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when gold broke out back in March.</li>
<li>The chart shows a new breakout in gold.&nbsp; Gold is hitting an all time high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout is on higher volume.&nbsp; This shows conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that gold is approaching the overbought level but is not yet there.</li>
<li>The chart shows the support zone.&nbsp; How gold reacts if it pulls back into the support zone will be a tell.</li>
<li>Long time readers of The Arora Report have very large gains in gold.&nbsp; The Arora Report's track record on gold is unmatched.&nbsp; The Arora Report gave a signal to back up the truck and buy gold when gold was in the $600 range.&nbsp; When gold reached $1904 in 2011, The Arora Report gave a signal to sell half of gold holdings and put a stop on the remaining gold at $1757.&nbsp; Gold topped out on the same day that The Arora Report gave a sell signal and fell to about $1000.&nbsp; During the fall in gold, readers of The Arora Report made a lot of money by short selling gold.&nbsp; The Arora Report signals caught the bottom in gold and have since been mostly bullish.</li>
<li>Due to positioning, gold can go much higher. &nbsp;Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Learning about Wall Street's mechanics gives investors several big edges.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, gold ETF GLD is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) and gold miner Newmont Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) are in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the latest breakout in gold is due to a rumor of a 50 bps interest rate cut taking hold.&nbsp; If the Fed does not cut by 50 basis points, there may be a pullback in gold.&nbsp; A pullback will be a buying opportunity.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The same 50 bps cut rumor drove stocks, especially AI stocks, higher yesterday.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Among earnings of note, Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) earnings were below whisper numbers as it is taking longer for Adobe's AI products to gain traction compared to expectations in the market.&nbsp; Also of note are earnings from RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>), the high end home furnishing company. RH earnings show that the consumer at the high end is resilient and spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and negative in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is GLD.  The most popular ETF for silver is SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

ADBE

Gold Breaks To A New High And Can Go Much Higher, Stocks And Gold Running On 50 BPS Cut

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-12_08h30_57.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Human-Like Reasoning AI Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ppi-openai-strawberry-nvda-mc-09122024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that last week NVDA stock touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA was oversold when it touched the top band of the support zone.&nbsp; Oversold stocks tend to bounce.&nbsp; The chart shows this is exactly what was happening until yesterday.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In the early trade, the momo crowd is ignoring the data and aggressively buying the slight dip in AI stocks.&nbsp; The buying in AI stocks is due to front running a speech by Nvidia&#8217;s Jensen Huang.&nbsp; The buying is especially aggressive in Nvidia (NVDA).
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>When Jensen Huang did not say anything new to run up NVDA stock, NVDA stock pulled back.&nbsp; After NVDA stock pulled back, a new momo guru narrative started taking hold.&nbsp; We wrote yesterday in a post in ZYX Buy and ZYX Allocation:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">This afternoon, the momo crowd is again extremely aggressively buying semiconductor stocks as momo gurus&#8217; new narrative takes hold.&nbsp; Momo gurus have all but anointed Harris as the next president after last night&#8217;s debate performance.&nbsp; Momo gurus&#8217; new narrative is that Harris will not be harsh on China like Trump, and there will be no tariffs.&nbsp; This will provide an opportunity for semiconductor companies to sell more semiconductors to China.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>We also wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In The Arora Report analysis, there are two major problems with the new momo guru narrative:
<ul>
<li>It is premature to anoint Harris as the next president.</li>
<li>Even if Harris is elected president, she is not going to give away AI technology to China.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>As NVDA stock started moving up, analysts started reminding investors of the regurgitation of high demand from Huang's speech and that Blackwell is coming.&nbsp; This brought in additional buying.</li>
<li>The chart shows that when NVDA stock broke above the mini support zone (previously mini resistance zone).</li>
<li>As NVDA stock broke above the top band of the mini support zone, technical analysts started declaring the correction in NVDA over.&nbsp; This brought in extremely aggressive buying in NVDA and other AI stocks going into the close.</li>
<li>In the early trade prior to the release of PPI data, buying in NVDA and other AI stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Arm Holdings PLC &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) was very aggressive.</li>
<li>After release of PPI data, some selling is coming in to take advantage of the strength.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with you that CPI was hotter than expected.&nbsp; This morning Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, after hotter PPI data, it will be safer for the Fed to not cut rates in September and wait for more data before cutting rates in October.&nbsp; Further, in The Arora Report analysis, the Fed should definitely not cut interest rates by 50 bps.&nbsp; Hotter inflation data is a negative for the stock market.&nbsp; However, right now, the momo crowd is oblivious and aggressively buying stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>New AI developments are exciting, but investors need to do a 360 degree analysis.</li>
<li>Jobless claims came at 230K vs. 229K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.&nbsp; Jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">ten categories</a>.&nbsp; In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-3/">click here</a> to see how this is achieved.&nbsp; One of the reasons behind The Arora Report's unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.&nbsp; Most models on Wall Street are static.&nbsp; They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.</li>
<li>Adding to the excitement this morning is that OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is about to release a new AI model called Strawberry.&nbsp; Strawberry is capable of some human-like reasoning.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>OpenAI's valuation has now vaulted to $150B.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This is inline with the consensus.
The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe has now widened, putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was seeing buying with tech stocks prior to the release of PPI data.&nbsp; However, after the release of PPI data, selling has come into bitcoin.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AMAT

AVGO

Human-Like Reasoning 'Strawberry' Ahead, Aggressive Nvidia Buying, Hotter Inflation Data

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-11_08h46_43.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Core CPI</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-hotter-cpi-carry-trade-concerns-spy-mc-09112024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows a slight pullback in the stock market after the release of CPI this morning.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has made a double top in the resistance zone.&nbsp; In the short term, this is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is consolidating between the support zone and resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market has bounced from being very oversold and is now situated such that it can go either way.</li>
<li>Core inflation data at the consumer level came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In theory, if the Fed was truly objective, the Fed would wait and not cut interest rates in September due to hotter core inflation.</li>
<li>The market consensus is a 50 bps cut in September.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, based on the CPI data, at a minimum the Fed should not cut by 50 basis points in September and certainly no more than 25 basis points.&nbsp; Having said that, we have seen it again and again, that the Fed decides what it wants to do first and then tries to justify it as opposed to letting the data shape the decision.&nbsp; As we have written before, Powell is itching to cut rates. Here, the Fed has a ready excuse to cut rates by citing its double mandate – maximum employment and price stability.&nbsp; Since the labor market is weakening, the Fed may decide to ignore the price stability part of its mandate and justify a rate cut based on labor.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, what the Fed does has major implications for the stock market, especially AI stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Of note is that the yields on long bonds are rising after the release of CPI data.&nbsp; Over the last couple of days, the momo crowd has aggressively been buying bond futures on leverage.&nbsp; These highly leveraged positions are losing money this morning.&nbsp; Unless bonds recover, there may be a negative impact on the stock market.</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is ignoring the data and aggressively buying the slight dip in AI stocks.&nbsp; The buying in AI stocks is due to front running a speech by Nvidia's Jensen Huang.&nbsp; The buying is especially aggressive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).</li>
<li>The yen rallied on comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) official Junko Nakagawa.&nbsp; As the yen rallies, there is more concern about the carry trade.&nbsp; The most popular carry trade has been borrowing funds in Japan to invest in AI stocks in the U.S.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the rise in the yen may stop, and the yen may even weaken as investors digest the new CPI data.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Sentiment is very positive.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was sold after the presidential debate on Harris doing well.&nbsp; Bitcoin bulls are hoping for a Trump win as Trump has closely aligned himself with bitcoin.&nbsp; Large amounts of money from crypto whales appear to be flowing into Trump's campaign.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Hotter Core CPI Upsets Stock Market Bulls' Hopium, Buying Ahead Of Nvidia's Jensen Huang Speech

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-10_07h59_51.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Major Negative Pattern Developing</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-semiconductors-apple-loses-fight-smh-mc-09102024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>A large number of stocks benefiting from artificial intelligence are semiconductor stocks.&nbsp; Examples are NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), Arm Holdings PLC &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), and Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>).</li>
<li>The chart shows that a heads and shoulders pattern is developing in semiconductor ETF SMH.&nbsp; The chart shows the left shoulder, the head, and the developing right shoulder.</li>
<li>The chart shows the neckline.</li>
<li>The pattern will be complete only if the neckline is broken.&nbsp; If the neckline is not broken, the developing pattern will be negated.</li>
<li>The foregoing is a heads up for those who are buying AI and semiconductor stocks and ETFs that are now falling in the buy zones.&nbsp; In practical terms, there is no change in the guidance given in the Afternoon Capsule on September 6.</li>
<li>The head and shoulders pattern works about 70% of the time.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that semiconductors are oversold.&nbsp; Oversold stocks and ETFs tend to bounce.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) introduced the iPhone16.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, we paid careful attention to the event. There is no change to the analysis The Arora Report provided you in advance of the event.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Apple is clearly anxious about today&#8217;s event, as demonstrated by the fact that this event is taking place on a Monday, whereas Apple generally does not hold major events on Mondays.&nbsp; Apple is trying to get ahead of a potential European Commission decision on Apple being forced to pay $14B in taxes.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Apple's anxiety was justified.&nbsp; Apple has lost the $14B tax fight.&nbsp; Apple's loss means that going forward Apple will have a higher tax burden in Europe.</li>
<li>CPI data will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; Here are the expectations:
<ul>
<li>Headline consensus is 0.2%.</li>
<li>Core consensus is 0.2%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The market is positioned for CPI to be benign.&nbsp; If CPI is much hotter than expected, due to market positioning, significant downside is probable.&nbsp; Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Understanding Wall Street mechanics gives investors several big edges.&nbsp; Due to their high value, Wall Street professionals keep the details of Wall Street mechanics close to their chest.</li>
<li>Sentiment has quickly turned very positive.</li>
<li>There are crosscurrents in the markets based on buying and selling by those who are driven by partisan politics ahead of the presidential debate between Harris and Trump.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVDA, and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

This Chart Before Buying AI Stocks, Apple Loses $14B Fight

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-09_08h25_11.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Hope Pinned On Apple Intelligence</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-short-squeeze-weaker-yen-apple-intelligence-aapl-mc-09092024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of AAPL stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the iPhone 15 was launched.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move from iPhone 15 launch to today's iPhone 16 launch.</li>
<li>Investors are hopeful that the move in AAPL stock from the iPhone 16 launch to the iPhone 17 will be much bigger compared to the stock move between the launch of iPhone 15 and iPhone 16.</li>
<li>The chart shows that even though investors have stars in their eyes, for the short term, AAPL stock has traced a negative pattern.
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that AAPL stock hit the top of the resistance zone in July.</li>
<li>The chart shows that AAPL stock failed to penetrate the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after AAPL stock failed to penetrate the resistance zone, it fell all the way to the bottom band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that AAPL stock rallied after falling to the bottom of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally stopped at the low band of the resistance zone.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Investors are mostly focused on hopes that Apple Intelligence, the name for Apple's artificial intelligence, will start a new super cycle of iPhone sales, and thus lift Apple sales from being sluggish for a long time.</li>
<li>Even though there is a lot of exuberance about Apple Intelligence, prudent investors need to remember that the momo crowd focuses only on the bullish factors and ignores the negative factors.&nbsp; In contrast, smart money takes into account both positive and negative factors.</li>
<li>There are several negative factors about Apple that the stock market is ignoring right now that prudent investors should be aware of:
<ul>
<li>Apple intelligence will likely not be available in the European Union and China.</li>
<li>Even in the U.S., most Apple Intelligence features will not be available right away.</li>
<li>The launch of all Apple Intelligence features is staggered over a long period of time.</li>
<li>The fact that Apple Intelligence that will initially be present in the iPhone is only half baked may delay the super cycle.</li>
<li>The marketing hype about Apple Intelligence is way more than reality.</li>
<li>Apple does not own its AI.&nbsp; Apple is licensing its AI from OpenAI.</li>
<li>The model behind the AI that Apple is offering is not running on the iPhone or on Apple servers.&nbsp; The model appears to be running on &nbsp;NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) based servers owned by Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).</li>
<li>Apple has been receiving $20B per year from Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) to make Google the default search.&nbsp; A judge has ruled that Google is a monopolist.&nbsp; In due course, the government may force Google to stop paying $20B to Apple.</li>
<li>In China, Apple is losing market share to Huawei.
<ul>
<li>Many Chinese believe that Huawei phones are superior to the iPhone.</li>
<li>Huawei is trying to crash Apple's iPhone part by introducing the world's first tri-fold phone.</li>
<li>Due to geopolitics between the U.S. and China, nationalist sentiment in China is rising against the U.S.&nbsp; This poses a significant risk to Apple since about 20% of Apple sales come from China.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>We understand that investors are very loyal to Apple.&nbsp; Before sending us hate email for doing a comprehensive analysis, note that Apple is the largest position in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Long time members of The Arora Report are long AAPL stock from $4.68.
<ul>
<li>Note that Warren Buffett has been selling AAPL stock.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Prudent investors should also be aware that Apple can easily manipulate its stock.&nbsp; After the last Apple event when Apple had carefully staged to run up its stock, Apple stock started falling.&nbsp; Apple aggressively bought its own stock to cause a technical breakout.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Apple is clearly anxious about today's event, as demonstrated by the fact that this event is taking place on a Monday, whereas Apple generally does not hold major events on Mondays.&nbsp; Apple is trying to get ahead of a potential European Commission decision on Apple being forced to pay $14B in taxes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is aggressive buying in stocks this morning due to two reasons:
<ul>
<li>A short squeeze is occurring. The technical pattern with the stock market, especially AI stocks traced on Friday afternoon, historically leads to a selloff on Monday.&nbsp;&nbsp;When stock futures did not open much lower on Sunday night, a short squeeze started.&nbsp; As the night went on, the short squeeze accelerated.</li>
<li>The reason stock futures did not open much lower is because Japanese yen weakened.&nbsp; The weakening yen has saved AI stocks from a blood bath this morning.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The fact that a short squeeze and weakening yen saved the stock market means that prudent investors should not become complacent.&nbsp; Pay attention to the protection band.&nbsp; See the Protection Band And What To Do Now section below.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.&nbsp; Bitcoin ETFs have seen a negative money flow of $1.2B in the last eight days.&nbsp; This is the longest streak of negative money flows in bitcoins ETFs.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Investors Pin Hope On Apple Intelligence, Short Squeeze And Weaker Yen Drive Stock Market Higher

Market Summary

Benzinga Market Summary: Stocks Fall After Mixed Jobs Data, Trump Hush Money Sentencing To Take Place After 2024 Election, Gold And Silver Fall As Dollar Rises

Gold and silver are trading lower amid a rise in the dollar.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-06_08h42_15.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Critical Waller Remarks Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-mother-of-all-numbers-spy-mc-09062024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market formed a double top inside the resistance zone and was unable to penetrate the resistance zone.&nbsp; From a technical perspective, this is a negative.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has fallen below the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is oversold. &nbsp;Oversold markets tend to bounce.&nbsp; This is exactly what is happening in the early trade.&nbsp; In the early trade, almost all of the buying is from the momo crowd. Smart money is waiting for remarks from Fed Governor Waller.</li>
<li>Critical remarks from Fed Governor Waller are ahead after the jobs report.&nbsp; Waller will speak at 11 am ET.&nbsp; It appears that the reason Waller remarks are scheduled at this time is to give Waller time to consult with Powell and other Fed members and provide the market with some guidance.</li>
<li>Waller's remarks will determine the near term market direction.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports due to its importance, has disappointed both bulls and bears.&nbsp; The reason is because the data is such a mixture it does not fit anyone's narrative.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 142K vs. 165K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 118K vs. 142K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.3 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.2% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>This jobs report makes the Fed's job difficult as the data does not clearly support either of the two Fed scenarios – 25 bps cut or 50 bps cut.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index came at 51.5% vs. 51% consensus.&nbsp; This stronger than expected data has helped the stock market.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note the yen is rallying after the jobs report.&nbsp; This increases the risk to the carry trade and in turn, to the U.S. stock market.</li>
<li>The momo crowd was pinning its hopes on Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) earnings to kickstart another leg of the AI stock rally.&nbsp; Broadcom is a major chip supplier including custom AI chips for hyperscalers.
<ul>
<li>Broadcom met expectations for AI chips.</li>
<li>Broadcom's traditional business did not meet expectations.</li>
<li>Overall Broadcom earnings are significantly less than whisper numbers.&nbsp; This is a negative for AI stocks.&nbsp; However, note that technically, AI stocks are oversold, and oversold stocks tend to bounce.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Bonds initially rallied after the jobs report. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, there is likely to be a rethink in the bond market.&nbsp; If this rethink happens, the bond market will give up its gains.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying after the jobs report along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Mother Of All Reports Disappoints Both Bulls And Bears – Critical Waller Remarks Ahead

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-05_07h52_00.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Jobs Picture</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-mother-of-all-numbers-clx-nvda-mc-09052024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Clorox Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLX#NYSE">CLX</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>). CLX chart is in the top pane.&nbsp; NVDA chart is in the bottom pane.
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The charts of CLX and NVDA stocks are being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that CLX has made significant gains at a time when NVDA has lost market value, including the worst day ever for NVDA when it lost $279B.</li>
<li>The trendline on the chart shows that CLX has moved up smoothly, whereas NVDA has been very volatile.&nbsp; CLX stock is an example of high risk adjusted return, whereas there is high risk in NVDA stock at this time.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, CLX is in the portfolio that surrounds the core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; NVDA is in the core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Having CLX and NVDA in the portfolio from a risk perspective is an illustration of how to structure a portfolio for high risk adjusted returns to maximize the wealth you generate over your lifetime.</li>
<li>CLX is an example of the cyberhack strategy.&nbsp; The premise behind the cyberhack strategy is that when a company is cyberhacked, and its business suffers, the decline in the stock is often temporary and presents a buying opportunity.&nbsp; CLX stock dropped when it was not able to ship orders due to a cyberhack.&nbsp; As full disclosure, CLX is long from $118.78.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that CLX is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks tend to pullback.&nbsp; Pullbacks are often buying opportunities.&nbsp; As full disclosure, there will be a new signal in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy on CLX.</li>
<li>JOLTS jobs report came at 7.67M openings vs. 8.1M consensus.&nbsp; This indicates the jobs picture is weakening.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book indicated that economic activity is stable to declining in most regions of the country.</li>
<li>ADP employment change came at 99K vs. 150K consensus.&nbsp; ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country.&nbsp; ADP uses its data to give a glimpse of the jobs picture in advance of the official report.
<ul>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the ADP report shows that the jobs picture is weakening. The momo crowd is oblivious as usual, but prudent investors need to be aware that the weakening jobs picture leads to a weakening economy.&nbsp; A weakening economy leads to lower earnings.&nbsp; Lower earnings lead to a lower stock market.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Jobless claims came at 227K vs. 236K consensus.&nbsp; This data is running counter to other recent data.&nbsp; However, as we have been stressing, investors should look at the four week moving average and not any one single week.&nbsp; Jobless claims is also a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in The Arora Report models.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; The consensus is 51.&nbsp; This data is likely to be market moving if it is far off from the consensus.&nbsp; This is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">ten categories</a>.&nbsp; In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-3/">click here</a> to see how this is achieved.&nbsp; Most models on Wall Street are static.&nbsp; They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.</li>
<li>The jobs report, also known as the mother of all numbers due to its importance, is ahead.&nbsp; It will be released Friday at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; Here are the consensus numbers:
<ul>
<li>Non-farm payrolls of 165K</li>
<li>Non-farm private payrolls of 142K</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings of 0.3%</li>
<li>Unemployment rate of 4.2%</li>
<li>Average work week of 34.3</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report will have a major impact on the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, here are the current probabilities:
<ul>
<li>75% probability of a 25 basis point cut</li>
<li>25% probability of a 50 basis point cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the non-farm payrolls are under 100K and the unemployment rate reaches 4.5% or higher, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut will go up significantly.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the non-farm payrolls are under 100K and the unemployment rate reaches 4.5% or higher, the probability of a stock market correction will go up to 70%.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing light selling.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Nvidia Beaten By Clorox, Mother Of All Reports Ahead

Gold and Silver could see a pullback in October that investors should add into – analyst

​​​​​​​While some people may be skeptical about the massive Chinese stimulus package copper is a believer.

A Believer - Manic Metals Report

Gold and silver managed to spike some new highs today, as gold futures breached $2700 and silver briefly tagged the $33 mark.

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - Trouble In Little Bank Land

India just had another big month of gold and silver imports following last month's decision to reduce import taxes on the precious metals.

India Gold And Silver Imports Spike In August

Spot silver soars to 12-year high, surpassing gold's record-breaking rally

SLVP: Silver Breaks Out, How To Play The Miners

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in various SPDR-ETF markets for the trading day that ended, Thursday, September 26.

SPDR ETF Report For Thursday, Sept 26

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Comments

iShares Silver Trust

Intérêt court

iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV), Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

Notizie

PARTENAIRE / CONTRIBUTEUR

BENZINGA MONDIAL