L'intérêt à découvert pour Redfin donne aux investisseurs une idée du degré auquel les investisseurs parient sur la baisse de l'action de Redfin. Les données sur l'intérêt à découvert sont mises à jour toutes les deux semaines.

Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN) Stock, Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

Redfin

Redfin Corp is a residential real estate broker. It pairs its agents with the technology to create a service that is faster and costs less. The company meets customers through a listings-search website and mobile application. The company uses the same combination of technology and local service to originate mortgage loans and offer title and settlement services. It has five operating segments and three reportable segments, real estate services, rentals, and mortgage. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Real estate services.

Redfin Corp

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Flipping From Neutral To Bullish</h3>
In&nbsp;<a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-11-15/trading-binary-outcomes-explosive-stock">a post here</a>&nbsp;on Friday (&#8220;Trading Binary Outcomes On An Explosive Stock&#8221;), we opened a pair of trades structured to enable us to profit whether shares of&nbsp;Super Micro Computer, Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>) spiked or plummeted this week. That was based on the impact of two expected catalysts.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&#x26a1;&#xFE0F; Trading Binary Outcomes On An Icarus Stock &#x26a1;&#xFE0F; Making money if Supermicro spikes or tanks further ahead of two catalysts next week. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SMCI&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$SMCI</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24NVDA&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$NVDA</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24DJT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$DJT</a><a href="https://t.co/dRvMP8ThRt">https://t.co/dRvMP8ThRt</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1857527027802271880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2024</a></blockquote>
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One of those catalysts was whether it would avoid delisting today. That catalyst hit after hours on Friday, with the news that the company was submitting a plan to avoid delisting.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">JUST IN: Super Micro Computer plans to submit a resolution plan by Monday to avoid Nasdaq delisting.<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SMCI&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$SMCI</a> &#x1f4c8; +19% in after hours <a href="https://t.co/y7M2pPQvm5">pic.twitter.com/y7M2pPQvm5</a>
&mdash; TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) <a href="https://twitter.com/TrendSpider/status/1857563907466080411?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 15, 2024</a></blockquote>
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The second catalyst is Nvidia Corporation&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) earnings call on Wednesday. Presumably, analysts will ask Nvidia about the state of their business with Supermicro. 
In light of today's follow through in that price action, I have closed the bearish part of our pair of options trades from Friday, the put spread, for $0.17.
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">The stock is&nbsp;Super Micro Computer&nbsp;(<a href="https://substack.com/discover/stocks/SMCI">SMCI 3.49%↑</a>), and there are two parts to this trade:
<ol>
<li>Open a put spread expiring on November 22nd, buying the $15 strike puts and selling the $14 strike puts for a net debit of $0.33.</li>
<li>Open a call spread expiring on November 22nd, buying the $19.50 strike calls and selling the $20.50 strike calls for a net debit of $0.31.</li>
</ol>
The max profit is 56%, and that occurs with the stock above $20.50 or below $14 next Friday. The max loss is $100%, and that would occur if the stock doesn't move at all between now and next Friday.
</blockquote>
Initially, the max upside for this pair of trades was 56%. That was assuming we would take a 100% loss on one leg. But since we only took a $0.17 loss on the put leg, our total outlay drops from $0.64 per contract ($0.33 + $0.31) to $0.47 per contract [($0.33 &#8211; $0.17) + $0.31] = $0.47. Since our max return on the call spread remains $1, and our total outlay is now $0.47, our max upside now is 113%: [($1-$0.47) / $0.47] = ~$1.13.
In addition to closing the put spread, I also bought a few more underlying shares of SMCI at $21.86 today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying A New Top Names Stock</h3>
As regular readers know, our core strategy is to buy equal dollar amounts of the&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.com/">Portfolio Armor web app</a>'s top ten names. Then we put trailing stops of 10%-20% on them, and replace them with names from the current week's top ten when we get stopped out of a position. As of last Thursday, I had gotten stopped out of two of my top names holdings. So on Friday, I bought two new ones from Thursday night's top ten list.
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized"><a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/top-names-11142024"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="928" height="820" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18222947/Top-Names-11-14.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3408" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18222947/Top-Names-11-14.jpg 928w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18222947/Top-Names-11-14-300x265.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18222947/Top-Names-11-14-768x679.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 928px) 100vw, 928px" /></a></figure>
On Friday, I got stopped out of another top name. So I bought shares of a stock that appeared in Friday night's top ten today. Subscribers can read about it&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-supermicro">here</a>.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">If You Are Concerned About Market Risk</h3>
As a reminder, you can download our iPhone hedging app by clicking on the QR code below. You can also aim your iPhone camera at it.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-armor/id394951144"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="200" height="197" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18223107/QR-Code-5.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3409" /></a></figure>
And if you would like a heads up next time we place a trade, you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below.&nbsp;
If you&#8217;d like to stay in touch
You can scan find our current top ten names, and&nbsp;create hedged portfolios&nbsp;on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.com/">our website</a>.&nbsp;You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/portfolioarmor">here</a>. And you can become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we&#8217;re using that for our occasional emails now).
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="602" height="418" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18223248/Widget-4.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3410" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18223248/Widget-4.jpg 602w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/18223248/Widget-4-300x208.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px" /></a></figure>

Markets

Trading Ideas

General

NVDA

SMCI

Turning Bullish On Supermicro

While tech companies large and small have laid off 460,000 workers since 2022, AI has been a universal growth driver across tech, adding $ billion in valuation to the Magnificent Seven alone. For tech vendors, the race is on to apply machine learning algorithms to deliver products that automate and accelerate work. VC checks slowed down since quantitative tightening but <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/opinion/23/06/32745766/despite-quantitative-tightening-vcs-are-investing-in-devops-and-ai-security">cybersecurity firms built on AI</a> – for example, <a href="https://hiddenlayer.com/">Hidden Layer</a>, <a href="https://stacklok.com/">StackLok</a>, and <a href="https://reken.ai/">Reken</a> – have raised business formation rounds on the promise of leveraging pattern matching analytics to security teams' work of detecting and remediating against cyber threats and vulnerabilities.&nbsp;
What is the AI Security Overlay?
A tantalizing next stage for AI security is an overlay that automates, tracks, and contextualizes risks across a customer's entire environment. Coined by Tyler Shields, Cybersecurity Strategist Analyst at ESG, as the AI security overlay, the platform supercharges detection, prioritization, and remediation workflows for vulnerabilities, threats, and assets. The end game looks like this: algorithms ingest and analyze threat feeds and vulnerability database details to pattern match against a customer's environment starting with the riskiest threats, as calculated by the platform, to that customer's business. It's an ambitious vision with some coincidental early movers.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Early Movers Build the AI Security Overlay&nbsp;
Several companies' existing businesses give them head starts at completing this security AI overlay. Vendors addressing zero trust, Attack Surface Management (ASM), Continuous Threat Exposure Management (CTEM), and other security issues developed overlapping tools from sharing a common cause in uncovering potential dangers dwelling in a customer's extended environment.&nbsp;
The decade-long platformization of security across different categories are merging these alphabet-soup markets. Existing technologies detect and monitor threats and known vulnerabilities across a customer's IT environment and prioritize remediation. And technologies already exist to pull security data from disparate sources, flag potential compliance violations, and risk score.
Developing AI that Unifies and Contextualizes Security&nbsp;&nbsp;
As Shields <a href="https://www.thecyberwhy.com/p/winning-in-an-ai-driven-contextual">summed up</a>, "The future of cybersecurity hinges on a strategic blend of context creation and intelligent data handling." The missing piece for the AI overlay is contextualized intelligence across application, cloud, and infrastructure risks that existing security technologies already track. The Overlay would also calculate risk (probability x loss) for each asset. The end result is the holy grail for security practitioners – prioritize what needs fixing when – if ever. Palo Alto Networks (PANW, +62.7%), CrowdStrike (CRWD, 69.49%), Zscaler (ZS, +12.5%), Tenable (TENB, +11.7%),&#x2A; and other security leaders with an eye on future proofing their business are well positioned from a combination of homegrown solutions and acquisitions that can be shaped into an AI Overlay.&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>CrowdStrike's Falcon platform maps cloud attack surface and prioritizes threats while <a href="https://www.crowdstrike.com/platform/saas-security-posture-management/">Adaptive Shield</a>, a 2024 acquisition, integrates with over 150 apps, contextualizes at-risk items, automates misconfiguration, and sheds light into human and machine identities to accelerate remediation across hybrid environments.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Palo Alto Networks is using "<a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366608992/Palo-Alto-Networks-bets-on-precision-AI">precision AI</a>" – a combination of machine learning, neural networks and generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) – to ensure 100% accuracy in security decisions for customers by correlating against the 36 billion events and 7.6 petabytes of data its technologies ingest each day across its sector rich customer base.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Tenable's <a href="https://www.tenable.com/solutions/exposure-ai">ExposureAI</a> leverages attack surface data to enable "lightning-fast analysis, decision-making and guidance" to help customers make better, faster security decisions that are preventative&nbsp; versus reactive after the damage is done.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Zscaler's <a href="https://www.zscaler.com/press/zscaler-expands-its-zero-trust-exchange-ai-powered-cloud">acquisition of Avalor</a> provides additional context from data sources to make sense of security specific AI models and integrates a security data fabric to fully automate AI-driven analytics and decision-making in real-time.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Cloud and Data Lake Providers
While pure play security vendors have the security pieces of the Overlay, large cloud and data lake providers like Oracle and Snowflake with a robust data analytics platform can acquire and or develop the security pieces necessary for the Overlay. In particular, Magnificent 7 member Microsoft has a path through its breadth and depth of data access, including code data all the way through to runtime. Not all cloud providers make products that require code level components so they will have to integrate for data access to that data.&nbsp;
The Overlay is the Next Hot Security Market
The security AI overlay could become the biggest security category since <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/23/10/35071966/a-look-at-zero-trust-market-dynamics">zero trust</a>, valued at <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/9337/zero-trust/#topicOverview">$32 billion in 2023</a> and projected to rise to $133 billion in 2032. While several vendors today deliver bits and pieces of the platform, green pasture remains for ambitious founders capable of securing funding to tackle this part of the AI security market.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&#x2A;Values reflect YoY gains near market close on Nov 8. Writer discloses shares in Microsoft, Snowflake, and Zscaler.

Tech

The AI Overlay is the Next Hexa-Billion Dollar Security Market

President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday picked Brendan Carr to become chairman of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42029445/trump-names-pro-starlink-fcc-commissioner-brendan-carr-as-chairperson">Federal Communications Commission (FCC)</a>.
What To Know: Carr, the FCC's current top Republican commissioner, has worked at the organization since 2012 and is an outspoken supporter of free speech, deregulation and economic growth in the telecommunications sector. Carr wrote the FCC chapter of <a href="https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-28.pdf">Project 2025</a>, a conservative political initiative spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation.&nbsp;
Project 2025: In his chapter in Project 2025, Carr expressed his support for updating and eliminating obsolete regulations to empower the private sector in developing network infrastructure. He showed particular interest in promoting technologies like Elon Musk&#8217;s Starlink and Amazon.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) Kuiper satellite internet services.&nbsp;
Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/24/11/42044642/trump-appears-frustrated-as-elon-musk-chimes-in-on-treasury-secretary-adds-more-names-to-a-list-of-potential-picks">Trump Appears &#8216;Frustrated&#8217; As Elon Musk Chimes In On Treasury Secretary, Adds More Names To Short List&nbsp;</a>
"This technology can beam a reliable, high-speed Internet signal to nearly any part of the globe at a fraction of the cost of other technologies. This has the potential to significantly accelerate efforts to end the digital divide and disrupt the federal regulatory and subsidy regime that applies to communications networks. The FCC should expedite its work to support this new technology by acting more quickly in its review and approval of applications to launch new satellites," Carr wrote in Project 2025.&nbsp;
Over the past year, Carr disagreed with Democratic FCC commissioners for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40672229/starlink-ineligible-for-nearly-900m-in-subsidies-says-fcc-spacex-ceo-elon-musk-says-it-is-flat-out-l">denying Starlink money</a> from a rural broadband subsidy program, including in this post on the social media platform, X:&nbsp;
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/bYTx3nBpft">pic.twitter.com/bYTx3nBpft</a>
&mdash; Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/1851691626743370042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2024</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
Carr also called out Vice President Kamala Harris for little progress on a $42 billion program to expand broadband access, for which the U.S. Department of Commerce determined Starlink had only limited eligibility.&nbsp;
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">In 2021, <a href="https://twitter.com/VP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VP</a> Kamala Harris agreed to lead the Administration's $42 billion program to expand Internet service to millions of Americans. After 1&#xFE0F;&#x20E3;,0&#xFE0F;&#x20E3;7&#xFE0F;&#x20E3;9&#xFE0F;&#x20E3; days: 0&#xFE0F;&#x20E3; people have been connected 0&#xFE0F;&#x20E3; dollars have been spent building Internet infrastructure 0&#xFE0F;&#x20E3; projects are underway <a href="https://t.co/AdUaSOEodK">pic.twitter.com/AdUaSOEodK</a>
&mdash; Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/1851411463895986185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2024</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
Carr told POLITICO that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/18/elon-musk-brendan-carr-fcc-starlink-00184260">he believes</a> much of the broadband program's $42 billion should be used to develop land-based connections, but perhaps as much as one-third could be used for satellite internet.&nbsp;
DOGE: President-elect Trump created a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and tapped Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the department's efforts to reduce wasteful federal spending and streamline government operations. The DOGE may help to advance Carr's agenda of deregulation and empowerment of the private sector, including Musk's Starlink satellites.&nbsp;
In a recent interview on "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast, Trump highlighted Starlink's potential to disrupt traditional land-based broadband technologies and the subsidies for providers like AT&amp;T Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>) and Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMCSA#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>).&nbsp;
"We're spending a trillion dollars to get cables all over the country, up to upstate areas where you have two farms, and they are spending millions of dollars to have a cable. Elon can do it for nothing," Trump said.&nbsp;
Read More:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42046316/trump-set-to-hand-musk-golden-path-for-tesla-after-reversing-course-on-autonomous-vehicle-ban">Trump Set To Hand Musk &#8216;Golden Path For Tesla&#8217; After Reversing Course On Autonomous Vehicle Ban</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock&nbsp;

Government

News

Regulations

SPACE

Politics

AMZN

CMCSA

Trump's FCC Pick Could Cut 'Wasteful Broadband Spending' With Elon Musk's Starlink

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Sprout Social (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPT#NASDAQ">SPT</a>) with a Sector Perform rating.

Initiation

Analyst Ratings

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Sprout Social with Sector Perform Rating

Trading Halt: Halted at 6:41:55 p.m. ET - Trading Halt: Halt News Pending

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Veeva Systems (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VEEV#NYSE">VEEV</a>) with a Sector Perform rating and announces Price Target of $235.

Price Target

VEEV

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Veeva Systems with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $235

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Workday (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WDAY#NASDAQ">WDAY</a>) with a Sector Outperform rating and announces Price Target of $340.

WDAY

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Workday with Sector Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $340

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on ZoomInfo Technologies (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZI#NASDAQ">ZI</a>) with a Sector Perform rating and announces Price Target of $10.3.

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On ZoomInfo Technologies with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $10.3

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Salesforce (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NYSE">CRM</a>) with a Sector Outperform rating and announces Price Target of $425.

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Salesforce with Sector Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $425

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Intuit (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTU#NASDAQ">INTU</a>) with a Sector Perform rating and announces Price Target of $700.

INTU

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Intuit with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $700

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Dayforce (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAY#NYSE">DAY</a>) with a Sector Perform rating and announces Price Target of $75.

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Dayforce with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $75

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Autodesk (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADSK#NASDAQ">ADSK</a>) with a Sector Outperform rating and announces Price Target of $360.

ADSK

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Autodesk with Sector Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $360

Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski initiates coverage on Asana (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASAN#NYSE">ASAN</a>) with a Sector Perform rating and announces Price Target of $15.

ASAN

Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On Asana with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $15

Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez maintains Kohl's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KSS#NYSE">KSS</a>) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $19 to $18.

Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Kohl's, Lowers Price Target to $18

Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet maintains AppLovin (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $185 to $335.

Citigroup Maintains Buy on AppLovin, Raises Price Target to $335

PLRX

Pliant Therapeutics Plans To Present Data From Bexotegrast Program At Liver Meeting 2024

Under the terms of the agreement and subject to meeting all closing terms and conditions, GE Vernova will acquire assets related to the business that are dedicated to supplying parts and services to GE Vernova.
The transaction is expected to close in early 2025, subject to certain closing conditions.&nbsp;Woodward has determined that the transaction is not financially material, and the amount of the transaction is not disclosed.&nbsp;
Woodward is working closely with the GE Vernova team to enable a smooth transition for members who work in Greenville.

Asset Sales

GE Vernova To Acquire Woodward's Heavy Duty Gas Turbines Combustion Parts Business Based In Greenville, S.C.; Terms Not Disclosed

Americans plan to spend more on holiday shopping this year than they did last year.
That&rsquo;s the takeaway from pretty much every consumer survey conducted over the past several weeks. Below are some highlights (emphasis added):
<ul>
<li>
&ldquo;Our proprietary survey of ~2,000 US consumers reveals a more positive outlook for holiday shopping versus 2023 and 2022. Overall, 37% of consumers are planning to keep their holiday budgets roughly the same, 35% expect to spend more, and 22% expect to spend less yielding a net of +13%.&ldquo; - Morgan Stanley (11/13)
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;Consumer sentiment has also shown signs of improvement, and the 2024 Bank of America Holiday Survey suggests people are planning to spend $2,100 outside of typical obligations and necessities this holiday season, up 7% YoY.&ldquo;-&nbsp;<a href="https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-november-2024.html" rel="">BofA (11/12)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;According to The Conference Board Holiday Spending Survey, the average US consumer intends to spend $1,063 in nominal terms on holiday-related purchases in 2024, up 7.9% from $985 in 2023. This is also higher than in 2022 ($1,006) and 2021 ($1,022). On gifts, consumers plan to spend an average of $677, up 3.4% from $654 last year. After slumping last year, consumers&rsquo; budgets for non-gift items such as food, decorations, and wrapping paper are also up 17% at $387.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://www.conference-board.org/press/consumer-holiday-spending-2024" rel="">The Conference Board (11/12)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;Some 89% of consumers admitted they&#39;re tempted to spend more than they should during the holiday season, while 94% indicated they&#39;d be tempted to make an unplanned purchase if the item were on sale. Over half (55%) of consumers said holiday deals have caused them to overspend; these big spenders said they are most likely to splurge on gifts for others.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/survey-consumer-spending-during-holiday-season/" rel="">Experian (11/4)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;Consumers are reaching a little deeper into their pockets this season, their average holiday budget rising 4% y-o-y to $613, according to Accenture&#39;s 18th Annual Holiday Shopping Survey.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/consulting/consumer-holiday-research" rel="">Accenture (10/30)</a>
</li>
</ul>
Upgrade to paid
<ul>
<li>
&ldquo;In a year when sustained consumer spending propelled growth and helped the economy skirt recession, we&#39;re calling for a fairly modest holiday sales season. We look for holiday sales to rise just 3.3% in November and December compared to last year, which is slower than last year and below the long-run average.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/pdf/1eed5512-01fa-4ef4-b2d7-4f9637037a55" rel="">Wells Fargo (10/28)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;Gallup&rsquo;s initial measure of Americans&rsquo; 2024 holiday spending intentions finds consumers planning to spend an average of $1,014 on Christmas or other holiday gifts. This is substantially more than their forecast of $923 at the same time last year, signaling that the 2024 holiday shopping season could be a bit kinder to U.S. retailers.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/652664/consumers-plan-generous-holiday-spending.aspx" rel="">Gallup (10/25)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;Consumer spending on the winter holidays is expected to reach a record $902 per person on average across gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation&rsquo;s latest consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights &amp; Analytics. The amount is about $25 per person more than last year&rsquo;s figure and $16 higher than the previous record set in 2019.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/2024-holiday-spending-expected-reach-new-record" rel="">National Retail Federation (10/22)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;U.S. consumers are set to spend 4% more on holiday shopping this year, with average spending projected to reach $948, compared to $911 in 2023, according to the KPMG 2024 Consumer Holiday Shopping Survey.&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://kpmg.com/us/en/media/news/2024-consumer-holiday-shopping-survey.html" rel="">KPMG (10/21)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;After expressing record holiday spending intentions in 2023, respondents are yet again planning to up their purchases, and expect to spend $1,778 (+8% year over year) this holiday season. The uptick in spend is attributed to a rosier economic outlook (+9 percentage points [PP]), perceived higher prices (70%), and an increase in spend by the $100K to $199K income group (+17%).&ldquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/holiday-retail-sales-consumer-survey.html" rel="">Deloitte (10/15)</a>
</li>
<li>
&ldquo;Despite 59% of consumers saying that inflation will probably influence their holiday spending this year, overall spending is projected to increase by 7% to an average of $1,638 per shopper.&rdquo; -&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/PwCUS/status/1841129254836142204" rel="">PwC (10/1)</a>
</li>
</ul>
We&rsquo;ll have to wait to see if consumers come through and actually spend more this year.
If they do, it would be consistent with the years-long narrative of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/consumer-health-walmart-q2-earnings-july-retail-sales" rel="">record consumer spending</a>. Just this past Friday, we learned retail sales in October rose to a record $718.9 billion.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3805bde-8140-48bb-b95b-9ca9914bd0c3_1920x1123.jpeg" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3805bde-8140-48bb-b95b-9ca9914bd0c3_1920x1123.jpeg" style="height:365px; width:624px" title="" /></a>
Retail sales continue to set new record highs. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/uscensusbureau/status/1857416499675242538/" rel="">Census</a>)
All this spending has been supported by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/146043265/household-finances-are-in-good-shape" rel="">healthy household balance sheets</a>&nbsp;and real income growth.
Upgrade to paid
<h3>Household Finances Are In Good Shape</h3>
Sure, households&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/economic-warnings-consumer-spending" rel="">aren&rsquo;t as flush as they were</a>&nbsp;earlier in the economic recovery &mdash; but they&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/consumer-finances-strong-normalizing" rel="">remain strong relative to history</a>. (More&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/economic-data-with-multiple-meanings" rel="">here</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/pandemic-excess-savings-less-important" rel="">here</a>.)
This is best reflected by the debt-to-income ratio, which remains at historically low levels even as aggregate debt has been rising.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ec21b51-ce70-4850-a46c-c0689882ab00_1496x1234.png" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5ec21b51-ce70-4850-a46c-c0689882ab00_1496x1234.png" style="height:515px; width:624px" /></a>
Debt levels remain manageable despite rising to record highs. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/11/income-growth-outpaces-household-borrowing/" rel="">NY Fed</a>)
&ldquo;Although household balances continue to rise in nominal terms, growth in income has outpaced debt,&rdquo;&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20241113" rel="">wrote</a>&nbsp;Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed.
It&rsquo;s a reminder to take headlines like &ldquo;<a href="https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/household-debt-17-94-trillion-dollars/2024/11/13/id/1187890/" rel="">US Household Debt Rises to $17.94 Trillion: N.Y. Fed</a>&ldquo; and &ldquo;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/credit-card-debt-hits-record-1point17-trillion-new-york-fed-finds.html" rel="">Credit card debt hits record $1.17 trillion</a>&ldquo; with caution because they&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/148105103/a-stat-thats-true-but-lacks-relevant-context" rel="">lack the context</a>&nbsp;you need to avoid&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/facts-in-the-news-that-can-lead-you-astray" rel="">drawing the wrong conclusions</a>. Better headlines read like &ldquo;<a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2024/11/13/household-debt-is-up-but-americans-are-in-a-better-spot-to-pay-it/" rel="">Household debt is up, but Americans are in a better spot to pay it</a>&ldquo; and &ldquo;<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ny-fed-says-household-debt-160332945.html" rel="">NY Fed says household debt up in third quarter as rising incomes ease debt burden</a>.&ldquo;
And in case you&rsquo;re wondering: Households have a long way to go before they&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/135828718/about-credit-cards" rel="">max out their credit cards</a>, as the New York Fed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20241113" rel="">chart</a>&nbsp;below shows.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd874be03-c9ac-43fb-b93b-71af7eb0b487_2202x1654.png" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd874be03-c9ac-43fb-b93b-71af7eb0b487_2202x1654.png" style="height:469px; width:624px" /></a>
Credit cards are not close to being maxed out. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20241113" rel="">NY Fed</a>)
Yes, debt delinquencies have been rising. It&rsquo;s an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/economic-warnings-consumer-spending" rel="">economic warning sign to keep an eye on</a>. But for now, they can be characterized as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/debt-delinquencies-normalizing-q2-2023" rel="">normalizing</a>.
&ldquo;Aggregate delinquency rates edged up from the previous quarter, with 3.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency,&ldquo; New York Fed researchers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20241113" rel="">noted</a>. That&rsquo;s significantly below Q4 2019 levels.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F142a71ab-3c3e-4761-90bd-ce9d56a53bc8_2196x1650.png" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F142a71ab-3c3e-4761-90bd-ce9d56a53bc8_2196x1650.png" style="height:469px; width:624px" /></a>
Debt delinquencies are rising, but they&rsquo;re mostly normalizing back to prepandemic levels. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20241113" rel="">NY Fed</a>)
Also, it&rsquo;s notable that wage growth has outpaced inflation for 18 months.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e63b4f5-e73e-488f-98b0-c16600eb0aa2_1238x890.jpeg" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e63b4f5-e73e-488f-98b0-c16600eb0aa2_1238x890.jpeg" style="height:449px; width:624px" /></a>
Wage growth has outpace inflation for 18 months. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/1856696575914852665" rel="">@byHeatherLong</a>)
&ldquo;This is how most Americans will ultimately be able to get ahead,&rdquo; The Washington Post&rsquo;s Heather Long&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/1856696575914852665/" rel="">wrote</a>. &ldquo;Prices won&#39;t go down, but wages will go up enough to offset the higher prices.&rdquo;
We&rsquo;re also on a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/150811009/review-of-the-macro-crosscurrents" rel="">46-month streak</a>&nbsp;of net job creation in America. When more people have jobs, more people have money to spend.
<h3>Zooming Out&nbsp;</h3>
With a new political party moving into the White House next year, we can expected an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/political-party-affiliation-affects-consumer-sentiment" rel="">upheaval in consumer sentiment</a>.
But as we&rsquo;ve learned in recent years,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/consumers-spending-travel-leisure-services" rel="">people won&rsquo;t put their lives on hold</a>&nbsp;just because sentiment is poor. If they have money,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/sentiment-down-vacation-spending-up" rel="">they will spend it</a>.
A version of this post was originally published on <a href="https://www.tker.co/p/household-finances-strong-holiday-shopping-preview?publication_id=26696&amp;post_id=151457436&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=2dvdoy&amp;triedRedirect=true">Tker.co</a>.

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