Wall Street faced heavy selling pressure in its first trading session after former President Jimmy Carter's funeral, as a series of economic developments rattled interest rate and energy markets, sparking heightened <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">risk aversion among investors.</a>



The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, far exceeding expectations of a slowdown to 160,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, defying forecasts that had anticipated it to remain at 4.2%.



This red-hot labor market data spurred traders to recalibrate their interest-rate projections. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a rate cut have been postponed even further, with markets now fully pricing in a reduction only by September 2025.



Adding to market turmoil, oil prices — as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) — surged more than 3% to $76 per barrel after the Biden administration imposed stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports. These measures targeted major Russian oil companies, shadow fleet tankers and opaque trading networks, intensifying pressure on Moscow&#8217;s energy revenues.



Rising interest rate concerns and inflation uncertainty weighed heavily on equities. The latest University of Michigan consumer survey showed five-year inflation expectations rise to 3.3%, the highest since June 2008.



The S&amp;P 500 dropped nearly 2%, hovering around the 5,800-point level, fully erasing gains made since the election. 



Technology and small-cap stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, with sharper declines across both sectors.



The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 109.70, marking its highest level since November 2022. The greenback is on track to notch its sixth consecutive weekly gain and has risen in 14 of the past 15 weeks, underscoring its dominance as a safe haven amid market turbulence.



Treasury yields climbed further as fixed-income investors braced for the possibility of persistent inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield rose seven basis points to 4.76%, nearing its late October 2023 highs.



The 30-year Treasury yield briefly touched the 5% mark, a level last seen in October 2023 and previously in August 2007.



Gold prices offered a haven for risk-averse investors, climbing 0.9% as geopolitical uncertainties mounted.



Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) saw some dip-buying activity, up by 1.2%, snapping a three-day losing streak during which it shed 10% of its value. 



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices</td><td>Price</td><td>1-day % chg</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>5,812.53</td><td>-1.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>41,837.77</td><td>-1.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>20,744.86</td><td>-2.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,173.84</td><td>-2.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent010625&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) flattened at $588.43.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was unchanged at $425.08.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) eased 0.1% to $514.72.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) dipped 1% to $220.91.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.4%; the&nbsp;Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLC#NYSE">XLC</a>) lagged, down 0.9%.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>



<ul>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) tumbled 5% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.</li>



<li>Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) soared over 10%, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42912208/delta-stock-jumps-after-record-q4-earnings-and-strong-2025-outlook">following the release of stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results</a>. Industry peers American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) rose 4% and 5%, respectively.</li>



<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JEF#NYSE">JEF</a>), down 12%; Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>), down 16%; TD Synnex Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNX#NYSE">SNX</a>), up 6.2% and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), up 26%,</li>



<li>Insurance-linked stocks faced losses as damage from California&#8217;s wildfires continues to mount. Shares of American International Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIG#NYSE">AIG</a>) fell nearly 2%. Meanwhile, Allstate Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALL#NYSE">ALL</a>) and Chubb Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CB#NYSE">CB</a>) plummeted by 7.4% and 4.8%, respectively.</li>



<li>Energy stocks rose in response to soaring oil prices. Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) soared 2%, buoyed by a bullish note from Bank of America Securities. </li>
</ul>



Read Now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42916780/donald-trump-receives-unconditional-discharge-in-new-york-hush-money-case-will-enter-white-house-as-convicted-felon">Donald Trump Receives Unconditional Discharge In New York Hush Money Case, Will Enter White House As Convicted Felon</a></li>
</ul>



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Wall Street Tumbles On Blowout Payrolls, Oil Rallies To $76, US Dollar Hits 26-Month Highs: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Companies in California and across the United States are pitching in to help consumers dealing with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42899953/five-dead-in-los-angeles-wildfires-utilities-face-scrutiny">wildfires in the state.</a>



What Happened: Wildfires in California have forced thousands of people to be evacuated from their homes as wildfires led to power outages and damaged properties, marking one of the potentially highest costing events in state history for the insurance industry.



Companies are pitching in to help consumers by delaying payments, offering free services and providing necessities like places to stay and food.



Here's a look at a portion of the companies offering help:



SpaceX: The company is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/space/25/01/42892886/spacex-ceo-elon-musk-offers-free-starlink-terminals-to-los-angeles-areas-affected-by-wildfires">providing free Starlink</a> terminals to areas near Los Angeles impacted by the wildfires, CEO Elon Musk announced Thursday. The tweet came with a local media reporter sharing that they were using Starlink to be able to provide live coverage with a lack of cell service in the area.



Sweetgreen (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>): The restaurant chain's co-founder Nicholas Jammet <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-jammet-5b9b878/?trk=public_post_embed_feed-actor-name">shared </a>a video on LinkedIn saying the company was hoping to provide food to as many people impacted by the wildfires as possible.



"We want to help, we want to feed as many people as possible," Jammet said in the video.



Starbucks (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>): One Starbucks location was destroyed by fires in the area, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-01-08/palisades-fire-near-los-angeles-latest?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">reported</a>. Another location handed out coffee and food to first responders to help in the efforts.



Target Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TGT#NYSE">TGT</a>): The retailer said is was fast-tracking critical supplies to stores near Los Angeles to help get necessary supplies to first responders and customers quicker.



Kroger (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KR#NYSE">KR</a>): The retailer lost a location in the Palisades region from the fires. The retailer is also giving food and water to people in the fire-impacted areas.



Albertsons (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACI#NYSE">ACI</a>): The retailer is also giving food and water to first responders in the wildfire areas.



Lyft Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LYFT#NASDAQ">LYFT</a>): The ride-share company announced it was offering free and discounted rides to and from shelters for impacted California residents.



"Lyft is committed to providing access to reliable transportation, especially in emergencies to support communities in need," Lyft Social Impact Manager Celia Moreno <a href="https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/help-for-those-impacted-by-wildfire-in-california">said</a>.



U-Haul (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UHAL#NYSE">UHAL</a>): The moving and storage company is offering 30 days free storage at 92 facilities located in Southern California for those impacted by the wildfires.



"People are hurting and in need of help. U-Haul is part of these communities, and if we can help our neighbors in this process, we are going to do so," U-Haul area district vice president Chris Piedra <a href="https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/Ca-Wildfire-Assistance-U-Haul-Offers-30-Days-Free-Storage-AT-92-Centers-33115/">said</a>.



Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>): The technology giant is providing temporary relief for Apple Card users in the Los Angeles area, allowing people to postpone payments without interest, as <a href="https://x.com/markgurman/status/1877480784648397264?s=46">reported </a>by Bloomberg writer Mark Gurman. Apple CEO Tim Cook also announced the company will be donating to help in the wildfire efforts.



"Thank you to the incredible firefighters, first responders, and all those assisting for your heroic efforts. Apple will be donating to support the victims and recovery efforts on the ground," Cook <a href="https://x.com/tim_cook/status/1877176338651439162">tweeted</a>.



Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>): The electric vehicle company <a href="https://x.com/tesla_na/status/1877454782647980368">announced </a>it was forgiving Autopilot and FSD Supervised strikes to people in California to provide them with more options when evacuating the region.



Planet Fitness (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLNT#NYSE">PLNT</a>): The gym chain is offering its locations to first responders and local residents in the impacted areas as a place to shower and charge devices through January 15, as <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/los-angeles-wildfires-pacific-palisades-planet-fitness-airbnb/">reported </a>by CBS News.



Airbnb (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABNB#NASDAQ">ABNB</a>): The house rental's Airbnb.org charitable arm is helping find free temporary housing for people who had to evacuate their homes.



Toyota (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TM#NYSE">TM</a>): The automotive company <a href="https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-supports-california-fires-relief-efforts/">announced </a>it would offer payment relief options to those impacted by the wildfires and is also matching donations from U.S. employees made to nonprofits like The American Red Cross.



AT&amp;T (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>): The telecommunications company <a href="https://about.att.com/pages/disaster-recovery/california-fires">waived </a>overage charges and is offering unlimited talk, text and data through Feb. 6, 2025 to customers in the impacted areas.



T-Mobile (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>): The telecommunications company <a href="https://www.t-mobile.com/news/network/t-mobile-stands-prepared-as-wildfires-impact-southern-california">providing</a> free Wi-Fi and device charging at some retail stores in the area as well as Wi-Fi at command posts. The company is also offering unlimited talk, text and data to customers in the impacted area through Jan. 15.



DoorDash (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DASH#NASDAQ">DASH</a>): The food delivery company <a href="https://about.doordash.com/en-us/news/los-angeles-wildfires-2025">offered </a>$150,000 in community credits to first responders and organizations on the ground in the impacted regions, allowing people helping with the efforts and displaced from their homes to get food and essential supplies quickly. The company is providing relief grants for local restaurants through the Restaurant Disaster Relief Fund. A total of $250,000 is also available through the Dasher Relief Fund for eligible drivers in the region impacted by the fire.



Read Next: 



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/25/01/42888380/los-angeles-fires-shut-down-production-of-tv-shows-fallout-abbott-elementary-hacks-film-premieres-canceled-critics-choice-awards-delayed">Los Angeles Fires Shut Down Production Of TV Shows &#8216;Fallout,&#8217; &#8216;Abbott Elementary,&#8217; &#8216;Hacks&#8217;; Film Premieres Canceled, Critics Choice Awards Delayed</a></li>
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SpaceX, Apple, Airbnb And More Companies Pitch In To Support California Residents After Wildfires: 'We Want To Help'

Oil prices are heating up, and so are the stocks of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/energy">major energy companies</a>. 



Shares of Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OXY#NYSE">OXY</a>), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>) were trading in the green at the last check on Friday. The rally follows a Reuters report suggesting the U.S. is preparing its most <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/42919047/oil-nears-80-as-us-prepares-new-russia-sanctions">stringent sanctions yet</a> against Russian oil.



These sanctions, expected to target 180 vessels, major <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil?_gl=1&#x2A;1aeuuae&#x2A;_gcl_au&#x2A;MTQ3Nzg4MTMxMi4xNzM1NTczMTA3&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;R1MxLjEuMTczNjUyMjc2NC4xLjEuMTczNjUyMjg4Ni4wLjAuMA..&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTczNjUyMDk1NC40Ni4xLjE3MzY1MjY3NDYuMC4wLjA.">oil </a>companies, and top executives, have already pushed oil prices to $80 per barrel — a level not seen since October 2024. 



Traders are responding to the anticipated disruption in global oil supply, and some ETFs with oil and energy exposure stand to reap the benefits.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What This Means For ETFs</h3>



<ul>
<li>The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was trading 3.73% higher as of 12.13 P.M. EST</li>



<li>The Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) rose about 3.84%. </li>



<li>The United States 12 Month Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USL#NYSE">USL</a>) posted a 2.21% gain.</li>



<li>The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>), with an expense ratio of 0.09% and a 91.26% exposure to the Oil, Gas &amp; Consumable Fuels make it a good bet for investors of oil-focused ETFs. The portfolio includes Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips.</li>



<li>Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VDE#NYSE">VDE</a>) has an expense ratio of 0.10% and like XOP, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips enjoys significant weightage in the fund.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Geopolitics and Market Dynamics</h3>



Sanctions on Russia — one of the world's largest oil producers — are expected to tighten supply. Prices are expected to go higher. Ongoing reduction in U.S. crude stockpiles, particularly at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, as reported by Reuters, adds to the pressure.



While tighter supplies drive prices upward, concerns about demand persist. China&#8217;s fuel oil imports are likely to fall early 2025 thanks to a hike in oil import tax from Jan. 1. 



Weaker demand from China, one of the biggest crude oil importers, could weigh on prices in the longer term. 



See Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42340255/opec-extends-oil-output-cuts-to-late-2026-what-it-means-for-markets">OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Cuts To Late 2026: What It Means For Markets</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

Oil Stocks Rally On Anticipation Of Stricter Russian Sanctions: Here's How ETFs Are Reacting

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced with an unconditional discharge in a New York hush money case Friday after a 12-person jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records.



Here's the latest.



What Happened: After Trump was found guilty in May, sentencing for the case faced several setbacks, including delays until after the 2024 presidential election. Trump and his lawyers unsuccessfully fought to have the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/09/40754802/trump-hush-money-sentencing-will-now-take-place-after-2024-election-to-avoid-any-appearance-to-a">and sentencing delayed</a> until after he is sworn in as president Jan. 20. 



On Friday, Judge Juan Merchan issued a sentence of an unconditional discharge, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/10/nyregion/trump-hush-money-sentencing">reported </a>by the New York Times.



With the ruling, Trump avoids prison time or probation. Merchan explained the seriousness of the sentencing and a "legal mandate" that is carried with it.



Merchan said "Donald Trump the ordinary citizen, Donald Trump the criminal defendant" would not get the same protections of the presidency. Being president will shield Trump from the seriousness of the verdict, Merchan said. 



Merchan stressed the case was no different than others he's presided over, trying to illustrate the point that no person is above the law, including a former or incoming president.



The judge wished Trump "Godspeed" ahead of his inauguration before leaving the bench.



Ahead of sentencing, prosecuting attorney Joshua Steinglass recalled details from the case and the conviction and told the judge that Trump has not shown any remorse for his action, instead spreading disdain "for our institutions and the rule of law."



"This defendant has caused enduring damage to the public perception of the criminal justice system," Steinglass said.



Trump's lawyer Todd Blanche repeated allegations that the case was only brought forward after Trump announced his plans for re-election, labeling the trial as election interference once again.



Trump, who opted not to testify in his trial, was able to address the court Friday and appeared remotely from Mar-A-Lago instead of in person, which was approved by the judge.



"This has been a very terrible experience," Trump said.



The president-elect said the case has "been a tremendous setback" for the state of New York and its court system.



Both Trump and Blanche cited the 2024 election result as showing that Americans gave the last word in the case after seeing the trial play out, with Trump highlighting his winning of all seven key swing states in the election.



"I was treated very, very unfairly, and I thank you very much," Trump said in conclusion. 



Check This Out:



<ul>
<li>Lawmakers Made Huge Investments This Year. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent011025">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>



Why It's Important: Friday marked the first time a former or incoming U.S. president has been sentenced in a criminal case. 



Merchan previously rejected Trump's claims that the verdict should be dismissed after his election win or due to violating presidential immunity.



The Supreme Court<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/01/42904750/supreme-court-denies-trumps-bid-to-delay-sentencing-in-stormy-daniels-hush-money-case"> rejected a sentencing delay </a>earlier this week in a 5-4 decision. 



Trump took to Truth Social, his social media company owned by Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>), to share his thoughts. 



"I appreciate the time and effort of the United States Supreme Court in trying to remedy the great injustice done to me by the highly conflicted ‘Acting Justice,' who should not have been allowed to try to this case," Trump said.



Trump said Thursday he would be appealing the case.



Trump is<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/07/33446444/donald-trump-will-still-run-for-president-if-convicted-and-right-now-thats-perfectly-legal"> still able to become</a> president of the United States, a role he will once again hold with his inauguration set for Jan. 20. Trump will be the first convicted felon to be sworn in as president of the United States.



DJT Price Action: Trump Media &amp; Technology stock is down 2% to $33.69 Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $11.75 to $79.38.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/42898021/google-donates-1-million-to-trump-inauguration-plans-youtube-livestream-pleased-to-support">Google Donates $1 Million To Trump Inauguration, Plans YouTube Livestream: &#8216;Pleased To Support&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

Politics

Legal

Donald Trump Receives Unconditional Discharge In New York Hush Money Case, Will Enter White House As Convicted Felon

Long-term inflation expectations among U.S. consumers have surged to their highest levels since the summer of 2008, raising fresh concerns over the Federal Reserve's ability to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">rein in price pressures.</a>



In a report released Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for January revealed a notable shift in inflation expectations. 



The year-ahead inflation gauge jumped to 3.3%, up from December's 2.8%, while five-year expectations also rose to 3.3% —marking the sharpest level since June 2008.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Sentiment Little Changed, Inflation Fears Intensify</h3>



The overall consumer sentiment index dipped slightly to 73.2 in January, marginally missing economist forecasts of 73.8 and down from 74 in December. 



This minor decline is overshadowed by the sharp rise in inflation expectations.



&#8220;Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in January,&#8221; said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan&#8217;s Surveys of Consumers. 



She highlighted the alarming increase in inflation expectations across both the short and long term, noting that it was only the third time in four years that such a significant shift had occurred.



&#8220;For both the short and long run, inflation expectations rose across multiple demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower-income consumers and Independents,&#8221; Hsu said.



Despite concerns about inflation, the index for current economic conditions improved to 77.9 in January, the highest reading since April 2024 and up from 75.1 in December. This gain was offset by a drop in the consumer expectations index, which fell to 70.2, its lowest point since July 2024.



The broader economic implications of the report are troubling. 



Rising long-term inflation expectations suggest that consumers may believe the Federal Reserve will struggle to bring inflation back to its 2% target, potentially leading to entrenched pricing pressures across the economy.



One possible explanation, not addressed in the report, is that the January&#8217;s University of Michigan survey may already be capturing consumer concerns about the impact of the incoming Trump administration's planned tariff hikes, which could push up prices on goods and services.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Extend Losses As Inflation Angst Grows</h3>



Wall Street reacted swiftly to the concerning data, with major indices extending Friday's selloff, which had already been fueled by a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42912480/us-economy-adds-256000-payrolls-in-december-as-tight-labor-market-tops-forecasts-dollar-treasury-yields-spike">surprisingly strong jobs report. </a>



The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), fell 1.5% by 10:15 a.m. in New York trading to drop below the 5,800-point mark. The index has now erased all gains made during the post-election rally.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average also slipped 1.4%, touching its lowest levels since early November, while the Nasdaq 100, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), plummeted 1.8%. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000 index, tumbled 1.9%, hitting a three-month low.



Sector performance was broadly negative, with energy stocks being the sole exception. Rising crude oil prices, fueled by tightening U.S. sanctions on Russia, bolstered the sector. West Texas Intermediate crude –—as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) — surged over 4%, reaching $77 a barrel.



Gold, often seen as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty, gained 0.8% as investors sought protection against both inflationary pressures and growing geopolitical risks.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42912208/delta-stock-jumps-after-record-q4-earnings-and-strong-2025-outlook">Delta Takes Flight As Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Fueled By Premium Travel Demand And Efficiency Gains</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

Markets

Consumer Inflation Worries Highest Since 2008, U Of M Survey Says: Wall Street Tumbles To 2-Month Lows

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments Friday in the case regarding legislation that could ban TikTok in the United States<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/12/42680367/tiktok-on-trial-supreme-court-prepares-to-weigh-national-security-risks"> in nine days.</a>



The Background: Last year, Congress passed a law requiring TikTok parent company ByteDance to sell TikTok or the app, which has about 170 million users in the U.S., will be banned in the United States. ByteDance filed a lawsuit to block the law and the case is now in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42712643/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-delay-tiktok-ban-as-he-pursues-a-political-resolution">the hands</a> of the Supreme Court. 



Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/42900817/quantum-stocks-regetti-computing-ionq-d-wave-poised-to-open-higher-after-nvidia-ceo-comments-drove-huge-losses">Quantum Stocks Regetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Poised To Open Higher After Nvidia CEO Comments Drove Huge Losses</a>



The Arguments: Noel Francisco, an attorney representing TikTok, opened the arguments by saying the law targets "speech itself" and that the court should temporarily halt the law "at a minimum."



&#8220;In short, this act should not stand,&#8221; Francisco said.



Chief Justice John Roberts questioned TikTok's ties to China and noted that Congress found that ByteDance cooperates with Chinese intelligence work and must comply with China&#8217;s laws.



&#8220;Are we supposed to ignore the fact that the ultimate parent is in fact subject to doing intelligence work for the Chinese government?&#8221; Roberts asked.



Justice Brett Kavanaugh defended national security concerns related to data collection through the TikTok app and asked what will occur on the Jan. 19 deadline if the High Court does not act. 



Francisco replied that TikTok will "go dark" and "essentially, the platform shuts down."&nbsp;



Francisco also acknowledged the possibility of a divestiture and potential intervention from President-elect Donald Trump



&#8220;Unless there&#8217;s a divestiture. Unless President Trump exercises his authority to extend it. But he can&#8217;t do that on Jan. 19. On Jan. 19, we still have President Biden, and on Jan. 19, as I understand it, we shut down,&#8221; Francisco said.



&#8220;It is possible that come Jan. 20, Jan. 21, 22nd, we might be in a different world. Again, that&#8217;s one of the reasons why that makes perfect sense to issue a preliminary injunction and buy everyone a little breathing space,&#8221; he added.&nbsp;



Oral arguments in the case remain ongoing at the time of publication.&nbsp;



Why It Matters: The case is viewed by many as a barometer for how the Supreme Court values issues of national security versus the constitutional right to free speech.&nbsp;



Critics of the TikTok law say that it violates the First Amendment, which guarantees freedom of speech, while proponents of the law say that TikTok could be pressured by the Chinese government to influence users through the spread of disinformation. Some also say that China could pressure ByteDance to turn over private user data generated through the TikTok app. 



The case could have implications for other social media platforms, including Snap, Inc.'s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNAP#NYSE">SNAP</a>) Snapchat and Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) which could benefit from a ban of TikTok.&nbsp;



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42899028/la-wildfire-damages-estimated-above-52-billion-california-property-insurance-crisis">LA Wildfire Damages Could Top $52 Billion As California Faces Property Insurance Crisis</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock&nbsp;

Asia

Social Media

Global

General

SNAP

Supreme Court Hears TikTok Arguments With App's Ban Ahead: 'Essentially, The Platform Shuts Down'

The December jobs report jolted financial markets during early Friday trading. Stronger-than-expected employment growth and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% raised fears the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for most of 2025.</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">December Jobs Report Fuels Fed Hawkishness: Dollar Soars, Yields Jump </h3>



The U.S. economy added 256,000 new jobs last month, marking an acceleration from the downwardly revised 212,000 jobs added in November and sharply outpacing economist forecasts of 160,000, as tracked by TradingEconomics.



The December reading represented the strongest monthly job growth since March 2024, underscoring the continued resilience of the U.S. economy despite high interest rates and resurgent inflationary pressures.



The unemployment rate ticked down from 4.2%to 4.1% in November, defying expectations of no change. Wages rose broadly in line with expectations, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.3% month-over-month, slowing slightly from November&#8217;s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, wages climbed 3.9%, marginally below the 4% forecast.



Fed fund futures showed a steep decline in the probability of a March rate cut, with implied odds dropping to just 26%, down from 43% a day earlier, according to CME&#8216;s FedWatch tool.



Treasury yields rose sharply across the curve, reflecting a repricing of interest rate expectations. 



The two-year yield, closely tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations, jumped 11 basis points to 4.37%. The 10-year yield surged 10 basis points to 4.79%, its highest level since November 2023.



Notably, the most striking move came in the 30-year yield, which breached the 5% mark for the first time since October 2023. Before that, the last time 30-year yields surpassed this milestone was in August 2007. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.2% in premarket trading, highlighting the market's sensitivity to long-term rates.



The U.S. Dollar Index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), surged 0.5% to 109.70, a level last seen in late October 2022. 



The greenback climbed 0.4% against the Japanese yen and 0.6% versus the euro, pushing the euro-dollar pair to a fresh 27-month low of 1.0250. The Sterling wasn&#8217;t spared, falling 0.7% to a 15-month low against the dollar.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks Slump Across The Board</h3>



Futures on major U.S. indices were down 1% across the board, as the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates rattled investors. All S&amp;P 500 sectors, except energy, traded in the negative premarket Friday.



Real estate, tracked by the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>), and technology, represented by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), both sank 1.4%. 



Rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and growth-heavy tech bore the brunt of the selloff as higher yields weighed on long-duration assets.



The one standout sector was energy, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) climbing 1.3%.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Major Premarket Movers</h3>



Among energy giants, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) gained 1.67% to $152.81, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) rose 1.57% to $108.61 and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>) advanced 1.43% to $103.07, benefiting from a 3% spike in oil prices after Reuters reported thet U.S. is mulling stronger sanctions on Russia&#8217;s oil sector.



In contrast, rate-sensitive mega-cap tech stocks dragged the market lower. 



Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) fell 2.51% to $136.59, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) dropped 2.92% to $118.28 and American International Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIG#NYSE">AIG</a>) plunged 3.93% to $68.63, leading losses among financials.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42901085/us-2025-recession-odds-plummet-good-news-or-warning-sign">US 2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

XLRE

Dollar Soars To 27-Month Highs, 30-Year Yields Hit 5%, Stocks Tumble As Jobs Report, Oil Spike Darken Fed's Interest Rate Cut Hopes

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) shares are trading higher premarket after the company reported better-than-expected <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/01/n42908301/delta-air-lines-announces-december-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter 2024 results</a>.



Delta reported fourth-quarter adj. operating revenue growth of 5.7% year-over-year to $14.437 billion. GAAP operating revenue was $15.56 billion (+9.4% YoY), beating the consensus of $14.212 billion.



Adjusted average fuel price was $2.34 per gallon, down from $3.00 from last year&#8217;s quarter. Adjusted EPS was $1.85 (+44.5% YoY), <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">beating the consensus of $1.76.</a>



Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/25/01/42899701/delta-q4-earnings-preview-can-bullish-trends-keep-the-stock-flying-high" rel="noreferrer noopener">Delta Q4 Earnings Preview: Can Bullish Trends Keep The Stock Flying High?</a>



Total passenger revenue for the quarter grew 5% year over year to $12.815 billion; cargo revenue grew 32% year over year to $249 million, and Other revenue was $2.495 billion (+34% year over year).



Delta recorded an adjusted operating income of $1.735 billion, up from $1.33 billion YoY, with an adjusted operating margin of 12%, up ~230 bps.



Adjusted operating expenses increased by 3% YoY to $12.702 billion, and Adjusted Non-fuel costs were $9.9 billion for the quarter.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42901060/delta-expands-premium-travel-experience-with-uber-youtube-and-joby-partnerships-unveiled-at-ces-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">Delta Expands Premium Travel Experience with Uber, YouTube, and Joby Partnerships</a>



Delta generated an adjusted operating cash flow of $1.8 billion in the December quarter. Full-year adjusted operating cash flow reached $8.0 billion, with gross capital expenditures of $4.8 billion, resulting in $3.4 billion free cash flow for 2024.



Adjusted net debt at the December quarter-end decreased to $18 billion, a reduction of $3.6 billion from the end of 2023. Liquidity stood at $6.1 billion at year-end, including $3.1 billion in undrawn revolver capacity.



The passenger load factor was flat at 84%. DAL&#8217;s Air Traffic Liability ended the quarter at $7.1 billion.



&#8220;As we move into 2025, we expect strong demand for travel to continue, with consumers increasingly seeking the premium products and experiences that Delta provides. Our differentiated strategy and best-in-class operations, combined with demand strength and an increasingly constructive industry backdrop, position us to deliver the best financial year in Delta&#8217;s 100-year history, with pre-tax income greater than $6 billion, earnings per share greater than $7.35 and free cash flow of more than $4 billion,&#8221; commented Ed Bastian, Delta&#8217;s chief executive officer.



&#8220;As efficiency gains continue, we expect non-fuel unit cost growth to continue in the low-single digits for the full year 2025 as efficiencies offset the impact of slower capacity growth and continued investments in our people and the customer experience,&#8221; stated Dan Janki, Delta&#8217;s chief financial officer.



First Quarter 2025 Outlook (Non-GAAP): DAL&#8217;s total revenue is expected to grow 7% &#8211; 9% year-over-year with an operating margin of 6% &#8211; 8%. Earnings per share are forecasted between $0.70 and $1.00 versus the $0.77 estimate.



2025 Outlook: The company&#8217;s EPS is projected at greater than $7.35, reflecting 10%+ YoY growth and 19%+ on a non-GAAP basis.



Price Action: DAL shares are trading higher by 7.78% at $66.20 premarket at the last check Friday.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42908495/us-stocks-to-open-on-a-tentative-note-as-traders-remain-cautious-ahead-of-fridays-crucial-jobs-data" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Stocks To Open On A Tentative Note As Traders Remain Cautious Ahead Of Friday&#8217;s Crucial Jobs Data</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock.

Guidance

Movers

Delta Takes Flight As Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Fueled By Premium Travel Demand And Efficiency Gains

<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors" rel="noreferrer noopener">Semiconductor chipmaker</a> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) ended collaboration with Singapore&#8217;s PowerAIR after discovering a Taiwan Semiconductor chip&nbsp;in a Huawei Technologies artificial intelligence processor, SCMP <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3294199/tsmc-cuts-ties-singapore-firm-over-chip-found-huawei-processor-sources" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.



In 2024, the Taiwanese contract chipmaker <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42644888/biden-administration-targets-chinese-firm-over-taiwan-semiconductor-chip-found-in-huawei-tech" rel="noreferrer noopener">suspended shipments to</a> China&#8217;s&nbsp;chip designing firm Sophgo after a chip it ordered from the Taiwanese chipmaker matched with one on Huawei&#8217;s Ascend 910B multi-chip system.



Washington imposed sanctions on Chinese smartphone giant Huawei in 2020, citing national security threats.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42882959/intel-partners-with-amazon-cloud-to-drive-next-gen-smart-vehicle-tech" rel="noreferrer noopener">Intel Partners with Amazon Cloud to Drive Next-Gen Smart Vehicle Tech, Wins Stellantis, Karma Auto As Clients</a>



The update coincides with reports indicating Nvidia and other chipmakers are susceptible to potential <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42897081/nvidia-and-ai-chip-stocks-brace-for-impact-as-biden-administration-considers-new-china-export-ban-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. AI chip sanctions</a> to China. Washington&#8217;s new curbs could restrict Nvidia&#8217;s AI chip shipments, with three-tier export rules favoring allies like Taiwan and barring Tier 3 nations like China.



Taiwan Semiconductor stock surged over 105% in the last 12 months, gaining prominence by manufacturing AI chips for Nvidia Corp GPUs and chips for Apple Inc smartphones.



Taiwan Semiconductor reported <a href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3198" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consolidated revenue of</a> 2.89 trillion New Taiwan dollars between January and December 2024 (up by 33.9% year-on-year). It reported a <a href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3177" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consolidated revenue of</a> 2.03 trillion New Taiwan dollars between January and September 2024. 



Therefore, it implies that the chipmaker reported a consolidated revenue of 868.46 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.3 billion versus a consensus of $26.2 billion) for the December quarter versus $19.62 billion a year ago.



The company expects <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41373163/nvidia-supplier-tsmc-reports-q3-revenue-earnings-beat-amid-rising-demand-for-ai-chips" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter revenue</a> of $26.1 billion &#8211; $26.9 billion.



Taiwan Semiconductor considered China the most significant revenue source after the U.S., as per the SCMP report. The chipmaker expected its China sales to grow by 26% in 2024 to $10.4 billion, accounting for 12% of its total revenue of $88.3 billion, SCMP cites Visible Alpha.



Investors can gain exposure to stocks of companies that manufacture semiconductors through the Invesco Semiconductors ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PSI#NYSE">PSI</a>) and ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SSG#NYSE">SSG</a>).



Price Action: TSM stock is up 1.34% at $209.89 premarket at last check Friday.



Also Read:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/01/42881889/uber-nvidia-partnership-to-unlock-value-by-leveraging-ai-to-advance-ridesharing-autonomous-tech-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Uber, Nvidia Partnership To Unlock Value By Leveraging AI To Advance Ridesharing, Autonomous Tech: Analyst</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock.

Government

Regulations

Media

Taiwan Semiconductor Hits $26.3 Billion Q4 Revenue, Reportedly Ends PowerAIR Deal Over Huawei Chip Breach Amid US Sanctions

The labor market ended 2024 on a strong note, adding 256,000 jobs in December, exceeding economist forecasts and showcasing once again the resilience <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">of the U.S. economy. </a>



Nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000 last month, up from the downwardly revised 212,000 in November and sharply surpassing economist expectations of 160,000 payrolls as tracked by TradingEconomics.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Labor Market Defies Gravity, Unemployment Rate Falls</h3>



The December payroll figure released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised to the upside for the second consecutive month, signaling the U.S. labor market&#8217;s strength continues to defy gravity. The outcome marks the strongest employment growth since March 2024.



The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, beating forecasts of an unchanged reading.



Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in December, matching expectations but slowing from November&#8217;s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, wages increased 3.9%, slightly below of the 4% forecast. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Key Sectors Driving Employment Gains</h3>



Employment growth in December was led by gains in health care, retail trade and government, while leisure and hospitality showed minimal change.



Health care added 46,000 jobs, continuing its consistent upward trajectory, while retail trade recovered from a loss of 29,000 jobs in November, posting a gain of 43,000 jobs in December. 



Government employment was also robust, adding 33,000 positions last month. Social assistance contributed an additional 23,000 jobs, reflecting steady demand in support services.



Employment in leisure and hospitality showed little movement, with a modest increase of 43,000 jobs.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>



The stronger-than-expected jobs report complicates the Federal Reserve&#8217;s path forward. 



While the labor market&#8217;s resilience signals robust economic growth for the fourth quarter, it forces policymakers to remain laser-focused on their inflation mandate, as recent price pressures have resurfaced, likely supporting a hawkish stance in the months ahead.



Yields on two-year Treasury bonds — which are highly susceptible to interest rate expectations — spiked by 11 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting fears that the Fed might push monetary easing further down the road in 2025.



The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rallied by 0.3% in the minutes after the release. 



Markets reacted with caution. Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 showed a 0.6% loss in Friday&#8217;s premarket trading. 



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42908495/us-stocks-to-open-on-a-tentative-note-as-traders-remain-cautious-ahead-of-fridays-crucial-jobs-data">US Stocks To Open On A Tentative Note As Traders Remain Cautious Ahead Of Friday&#8217;s Crucial Jobs Data</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

Currency ETFs

US Economy Adds 256,000 Payrolls In December, Tight Labor Market Tops Forecasts: Dollar, Treasury Yields Spike

U.S. stock futures declined on Friday ahead of the crucial U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42905396/us-may-add-fewer-jobs-in-december-with-an-unchanged-unemployment-rate-predict-economists">jobs data</a> report after a mixed close in the previous session. Futures of all four major indices fell in premarket trade.



Traders were cautious on Friday morning as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42905396/us-may-add-fewer-jobs-in-december-with-an-unchanged-unemployment-rate-predict-economists">economists</a> expect December's non-farm payrolls to soften as compared to November in Friday's official monthly jobs report. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%.



The stock markets ended mixed on Wednesday followed by a break on Thursday in the remembrance of former President Jimmy Carter.



The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.70% and 4.29%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025, FOMC meeting was at 95.2%, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">according to</a> CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>-0.03%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.01%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.17%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



In premarket trading on Friday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.03% to $589.31, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) was down 0.058% to $514.97, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From The Last Session



U.S. stock markets closed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/42906229/dow-surges-over-100-points-following-fed-minutes-investor-sentiment-declines-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">mixed</a> on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining over 100 points. The Federal Reserve&#8217;s latest meeting minutes revealed uncertainty among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts. The incoming administration&#8217;s policies and their potential impact on inflation remain unclear. 



Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>), a leading lighting solutions provider, reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the first quarter of its fiscal year.



On the economic data front, U.S. private companies added 122,000 jobs in December, lower than November&#8217;s figure and below market expectations. Initial jobless claims decreased to an 11-month low, suggesting a tightening labor market.



Most sectors in the S&amp;P 500 Index closed higher, with consumer staples, healthcare, and materials sectors leading the gains. However, the energy and communication services sectors experienced declines.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.25% higher at 42,635.20, up approximately 107 points. The S&amp;P 500 Index rose 0.16% to 5,918.25, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.055% to 19,478.88. Russell 200, on the other hand, fell 0.48% to 2,238.96.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>-0.055%</td><td>19,478.88</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.16%</td><td>5,918.25</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.25%</td><td>42,635.20</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.48%</td><td>2,238.96</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts



TradingEconomics <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42905396/us-may-add-fewer-jobs-in-december-with-an-unchanged-unemployment-rate-predict-economists">compiled</a> economist consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to show a net gain of 154,000 jobs in December, down sharply from the 227,000 added in November. On the other hand, Bloomberg's consensus estimate stands at 165,000 jobs.



However, December's job report will be "the first clean monthly employment report after October," said&nbsp;Ed Yardeni&nbsp;and&nbsp;Eric Wallerstein&nbsp;in their weekly economic report, adding that October witnessed hurricanes and strikes, and November's jobs were boosted because of the returning workers.



Yardeni Research also anticipates further hiring under the Trump administration due to potential policy changes and increased economic certainty.



A <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42881085/is-labor-market-cooling-or-raising-fed-concerns-what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report">weaker-than-expected jobs report</a> on Friday could boost U.S. stocks, weaken the dollar, and lower government bond yields, as investors might see it as an indication that the Fed has room to ease monetary policy. &#8211;



Conversely, stronger-than-expected job growth or a lower unemployment rate could raise concerns about a robust labor market, potentially delaying the Fed&#8217;s timeline for easing.



&#8220;The recent string of strong economic data can keep pushing back the timing of the next Fed rate cut,&#8221; said Collin Martin, director, of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. &#8220;The Fed funds futures market is not pricing in the next cut until July, and if inflation remains as sticky as it has lately, it seems likely that the Fed could skip cutting rates at a number of meetings.&#8221;



Drawing a parallel between a strong U.S. dollar and equity performance, Louis Navellier of Navellier &amp; Associates said that a stronger greenback &#8220;impedes the sales in the multi-international stocks&#8221; in the S&amp;P 500 and most such stocks have at least half of their revenue coming from outside U.S.



&#8220;As a result, domestic stocks tend to prosper during a strong U.S. dollar environment, especially small-to-mid capitalization companies,&#8221; he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 



Upcoming Economic Data



<ul>
<li>On Friday, the U.S. employment report, unemployment rate, and hourly wages data for December along with hourly wages year over year will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>The preliminary consumer sentiment data for January will be announced at 10:00 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul>
<li>Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) was up 3.37% in the premarket on Friday. Wall Street is expecting it to report quarterly earnings of $1.76 per share on revenue of $14.21 billion before the opening bell, according to data from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>TD Synnex Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNX#NYSE">SNX</a>) was marginally up by 0.07% as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings at $3.05 per share on revenue of $15.22 billion. The company will release earnings before the markets open.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>) was marginally down by 0.50% as it will be reporting its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts project quarterly earnings of $3.31 per share on revenue of $2.53 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) was also up 0.33% ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share on revenue of $37.28 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COST#NASDAQ">COST</a>) was up 2.44% after it posed a 9.9% jump in its core comparable sales excluding forex and gas price changes for the five weeks ended Jan. 5, 2025.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Vision Marine Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VMAR#NASDAQ">VMAR</a>) was up 114.47% as it regained compliance with Nasdaq&#8217;s minimum stockholders&#8217; equity requirement, which it previously failed to meet.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>IGM Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IGMS#NASDAQ">IGMS</a>) was down 68.55% as it announced in a regulatory filing that it is reducing its workforce by 73% to preserve cash.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 2.52% to hover around $75.78 per barrel.



The gold spot index was up by 0.68% to $2,709.19 per ounce. The Dollar Index was at 109.184 level.



Asian markets closed lower on Friday as Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225, India&#8217;s S&amp;P BSE Sensex, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Australia&#8217;s ASX 200, and South Korea&#8217;s Kospi index declined. European markets were mixed.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/42906089/california-wildfires-ignite-concerns-for-insurance-stocks-here-are-some-insurance-etfs-which-could-be-impacted">California Wildfires Ignite Concerns For Insurance Stocks: Here Are Some Insurance ETFs Which Could Be Impacted</a></li>
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Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

Analyst Color

Macro Notification

Market Summary

Futures

Pre-Market Outlook

Analyst Ratings

COST

IGMS

VMAR

US Stocks To Open On A Tentative Note As Traders Remain Cautious Ahead Of Friday's Crucial Jobs Data

Leading cryptocurrencies mounted losses on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of a crucial jobs report



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 7:30 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>-2.54%</td><td>$92,600.34</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-3.22%</td><td>$3,220.17</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-5.10%</td><td>$0.3237</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $91,220 late afternoon before recouping some losses by evening. The leading cryptocurrency has declined nearly 10% since the highs of $102,000 earlier in the week.



The report of the Justice Department <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42890745/us-government-granted-[%E2%80%A6]date-65-billion-in-bitcoin-seized-from-silk-road-case-report">getting approval to sell $6.5 billion in Bitcoin </a>and on-chain movements created panic in the market, although it was yet to be confirmed the sale happened.



The extended slump triggered a fresh wave of liquidations, with nearly $285 million in upside bets getting evaporated in the last 24 hours.



That said, more than 68% of traders on Binance were betting on Bitcoin's rebound, according to the Long/Short ratio.



A reversal to $100,000 will liquidate nearly $780 million in short positions.



The market sentiment slipped into the "Neutral" zone from "Greed," according to the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index, as traders lowered risk appetite.



Top Gainers (24-Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 7:30 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>BitTorrent New (BT)</td><td>+3.68%</td><td>$0.000001168</td></tr><tr><td>Kaia (KAIA)</td><td>+3.19%</td><td>$0.2108</td></tr><tr><td>Litecoin (LTC)</td><td>+1.48%</td><td>$102.64</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.23 trillion, falling by 2.54% in the last 24 hours.



Stock futures slipped in overnight trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures fell 183 points, or 0.43%, as of 7:44 p.m. EDT.&nbsp; Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 dropped 0.58%, while Nasdaq 100 Futures lost 0.73%.



Investors were gearing up for the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42881085/is-labor-market-cooling-or-raising-fed-concerns-what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report">December jobs report</a>, due on Friday, to determine the Federal Reserve's next moves on monetary policy.



The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were closed on Thursday in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Markets will resume trading on Friday.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Popular blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin was yet to reach a cycle top, according to analysis of the Market Value to Realized Value indicator.



"MVRV metric reached the value of 3 at the market tops in the past two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14… it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price of this cycle," CryptoQuant added.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">100-day moving average of MVRV: Bitcoin has not yet reached the top price of this cycle "MVRV metric reached the value of 3 at the market tops in the past two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14… it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price of… <a href="https://t.co/YlNLQwgE3w">pic.twitter.com/YlNLQwgE3w</a>&mdash; CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href="https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1877346597501022612?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Michaël van de Poppe, another widely followed cryptocurrency analyst, noted that the altcoin season was yet to begin, citing the Altcoin Season Index.



"However, as the number drops sub 50, it provides a tremendous opportunity to accumulate your altcoins," Van De Poppe added. "It&#8217;s bull market year."



At the time of the X post, the indicator showed a reading of 47.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Altseason indicator says: It&#39;s not an altseason! However, as the number drops sub 50, it provides a tremendous opportunity to accumulate your <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Altcoins?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Altcoins</a>. It&#39;s bull market year. <a href="https://t.co/BfXm4pyzeW">pic.twitter.com/BfXm4pyzeW</a>&mdash; Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1877432402034725084?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Photo by Igor Faun on Shutterstock



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42901382/man-who-accidentally-threw-away-8000-bitcoin-hard-drive-suffers-new-kick-in-the-teeth-as-uk-court-dismisses-his-claim">Man Who Accidentally Threw Away 8,000 Bitcoin Hard Drive Suffers New &#8216;Kick In The Teeth&#8217; As UK Court Dismisses His Claim</a></li>
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Trading Ideas

$DOGE

$ETH

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Slip Ahead Of Key Jobs Data Release: Top Analyst Remains Positive On 2025 — 'It's Bull Market Year'

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) investor Gary Black cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations for the company&#8217;s Optimus robot program on Thursday, sparking debate about the electric vehicle maker&#8217;s valuation metrics and growth prospects.



What Happened: Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, calculated that Tesla&#8217;s planned production of 500,000 Optimus robots by 2027 would add approximately $0.70 to earnings per share, assuming a $30,000 average selling price and 20% gross margin. This would supplement his projected core EPS of $7.70 for that year.



The analysis drew pushback from Dave Lee, host of Dave Lee on Investing, who argued that successful Optimus deployment would dramatically increase Tesla&#8217;s price-to-earnings multiple due to growth potential rather than just incremental earnings.



Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla&#8217;s recent market performance. &#8220;TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high,&#8221; Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100&#8217;s 36% rise during that period.



&#8220;Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get pounded on by TSLA uberbulls for being too cautious, when in reality even my forecasts have been too bullish over the past three years,&#8221; Black wrote. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">One can clearly see this in TSLA FY'25 and FY'26 earnings estimates, which have come down -39% and -45% over the past 12 months, as the market figured out TSLA's long-term projection of 50% compounded volume growth was too high. Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get… <a href="https://t.co/YkURbaUHnS">pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS</a>&mdash; Gary Black (@garyblack00) <a href="https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1877456270455878128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42902354/betting-markets-see-strong-jobs-growth-yet-goldman-sachs-forecasts-a-slowdown-how-can-traders-profit">Betting Markets See Strong Jobs Growth, Yet Goldman Sachs Forecasts A Slowdown: How Can Traders Profit?</a>



Why It Matters: The debate follows CEO Elon Musk&#8216;s announcement that Tesla aims to produce <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39880470/elon-musk-pushes-back-optimus-timeline-says-teslas-humanoid-robot-will-hopefully-be-available-for-ot">several thousand Optimus robots in 2025</a>, scaling to 50,000-100,000 units in 2026 and potentially 500,000 in 2027.



Bank of America analyst John Murphy recently valued Tesla&#8217;s Optimus segment between $14 billion and $95 billion in his sum-of-parts analysis, representing just 2% of Tesla&#8217;s total estimated value. Murphy sees greater potential in Tesla&#8217;s robotaxi and Full Self-Driving capabilities, which he estimates could comprise <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42856115/tesla-analyst-on-high-stakes-future-optimus-robotaxi-fsd-have-potential-but-execution-risks-loom">over 75% of the company&#8217;s future value</a>.



&#8220;If investors want TSLA stock to stop underperforming, they need to stop pressuring analysts to push estimates ever higher,&#8221; Black emphasized, citing that Tesla&#8217;s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates have declined by 39% and 45% respectively over the past year.



Read Next: 



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/25/01/42903410/regulatory-woes-subscriber-declines-falling-oil-prices-were-buying-buffett-bets-big-on-563m-worth-of-underdogs">&#8216;Regulatory Woes? Subscriber Declines? Falling Oil Prices? We&#8217;re Buying!&#8217; Buffett Bets Big On $563M Worth Of Underdogs</a></li>
</ul>



Image Via Shutterstock 



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Tesla Bull Gary Black Warns Against Inflated Optimus Robot Assumptions: Get Pounded Each Time 'I Try To Right-Size Expectations'

Alphabet Inc&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) search engine arm Google and aerospace leader Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) have each pledged a donation of $1 million to the inaugural committee of President-elect Trump. This move aligns them with other prominent corporations in supporting the forthcoming inauguration event on Jan. 20.



What Happened: Both Google and Boeing validated their respective $1 million donations to the inaugural committee, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5077817-google-boeing-donate-trump-inauguration/">reported</a> The Hill. 



Karan Bhatia, Google's global head of government affairs and public policy, expressed, &#8220;Google is pleased to support the 2025 inauguration, with a livestream on YouTube and a direct link on our homepage. We're also donating to the inaugural committee.&#8221;



Boeing also confirmed its contribution, stating, &#8220;We&nbsp;are pleased to continue Boeing's&nbsp;bipartisan tradition of supporting U.S.&nbsp;Presidential Inaugural Committees.&#8221; The company has a history of backing past presidential inaugural committees.



Other corporations, such as Meta, Amazon, and Uber, have also contributed to Trump&#8217;s inaugural fund. Toyota and Ford have each donated $1 million. Several top executives, including Google&#8217;s Sundar Pichai and Amazon&#8217;s Jeff Bezos, have met with the President-elect at his Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago.



These meetings and contributions suggest a shift among some corporations aiming to establish a stronger relationship with the incoming President as he prepares to take office later this month.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/01/42901026/jimmy-carters-funeral-5-living-presidents-attend-family-colleagues-share-warm-humorous-stories">Jimmy Carter&#8217;s Funeral: 5 Living Presidents Attend; Family, Colleagues Share Warm, Humorous Stories</a>



Why It Matters: This recent wave of corporate support for the incoming administration is not without precedent. As reported by Benzinga in December, Amazon&#8217;s Bezos <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/12/42479253/jeff-bezos-amazon-pledges-1-million-to-trumps-inaugural-event-following-in-the-footsteps-of-mark-zuckerberg-and-meta">pledged $1 million</a> to the inaugural event, following Meta&#8217;s similar contribution. 



Additionally, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/24/12/42485193/sam-altman-to-donate-1m-to-trumps-inauguration-fund-following-zuckerberg-bezos-eager-to-support">Sam Altman</a>, CEO of OpenAI, announced his $1 million donation, citing support for Trump&#8217;s efforts to advance the U.S. in the artificial intelligence sector.



Earlier this month, Apple&#8217;s CEO Tim Cook also reportedly donated $1 million to the inauguration, viewing it as an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/24/12/42485193/sam-altman-to-donate-1m-to-trumps-inauguration-fund-following-zuckerberg-bezos-eager-to-support">important American tradition</a> and a gesture of unity. These donations reflect a broader trend of tech and corporate leaders seeking to foster a positive relationship with the incoming administration.



Image via Shutterstock



Did You Know?



<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>



This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/shivdeep-dhaliwal" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shivdeep Dhaliwal</a>

GOOG

GOOGL

Google And Boeing Contribute $1M Each To Trump's Inauguration Fund: YouTube To Livestream Event

Betting markets see December&#8217;s nonfarm payrolls coming in much higher than Wall Street economists expect, creating a stark divide between traders betting on strong labor data and forecasts predicting <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42881085/is-labor-market-cooling-or-raising-fed-concerns-what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report">a slowdown in hiring.</a>



In a note shared Thursday, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker estimated that nonfarm payrolls grew by just 125,000 in December, significantly below the consensus forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Betting Markets Signal Optimism</h1>



Data from CFTC-regulated betting platform Kalshi paints a far rosier picture of the December jobs market.



Implied odds derived from wagers suggest nonfarm payrolls could climb by 187,000 in December 2024. 



As of Thursday afternoon, traders betting on a jobs number above 150,000 had a 70% implied chance of winning, with an even 40% chance assigned to a print over 200,000. 



On the flip side, bets against payroll growth exceeding 150,000 offered a payout of $3 for every $1 wagered, while betting on a particularly weak figure — below 100,000 — provided an 11-to-1 payout.



This divergence highlights the potential for traders to profit handsomely if the labor report skews toward a weak payroll number. 


<iframe loading="lazy" style="border: 0;" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXPAYROLLS-24DEC?color_scheme=light&amp;widget_size=large&amp;utm_campaign=benzingawidget" width="552px" height="400px"></iframe>


<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Predicts A Slower Jobs Market</h1>



While betting markets exude confidence in the labor market, Wall Street economists are taking a more cautious stance. 



Trading Economics places the consensus estimate at 160,000 jobs, a marked slowdown from November&#8217;s robust gain of 227,000.



Goldman Sachs&#8217; projection of 125,000 jobs would represent a reduction from the three-month average of 174,000. 



Goldman also expects the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.3%, slightly above the consensus of 4.2%.



Walker attributed his conservative forecast to several factors, including &#8220;middling household employment growth,&#8221; &#8220;more challenging job-finding prospects&#8221; and &#8220;a rebound in the labor force participation rate.&#8221;



Goldman also anticipates average hourly earnings to rise just 0.3% month-over-month, leaving annual wage growth at 4.0%.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Seasonal Distortions At Play</h1>



Seasonal trends tied to the timing of Thanksgiving and Black Friday may play a significant role in December's payroll data. 



Walker highlighted that the late holiday shopping season this year likely weakened November&#8217;s retail hiring, with some of that hiring activity spilling into December.



Yet, Goldman expects these gains to be more than offset by slower job growth in other sectors. 



&#8220;We expect deceleration in job growth in non-retail sectors, particularly professional services and construction,&#8221; Walker said, adding that seasonal distortions could reduce payroll growth by as much as 50,000 jobs.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">A Wager On Market Surprise</h1>



The chasm between betting odds and Wall Street forecasts suggests that traders are banking on the U.S. economy's resilience amid mounting headwinds.



For investors, a stronger-than-expected payroll report could reignite concerns about inflation, putting further upward pressure on Treasury yields and forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates. 



Conversely, a disappointing print could signal a slowdown in economic momentum, potentially easing pressure on the central bank.



Read Now: 



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Photo: Shutterstock

Betting Markets Project Strong Jobs Growth, Goldman Sachs Forecasts Slowdown: How Can Traders Profit?

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the &#8220;Fear&#8221; zone on Wednesday.



U.S. stocks settled mostly higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index gaining more than 100 points during the session.



Minutes from the Federal Reserve&#8217;s December meeting released on Wednesday show officials are uncertain about the path of future rate cuts, as President-elect Donald Trump&#8217;s policies and how they could affect inflation remain unknown.



Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) reported weaker-than-expected revenue for its fiscal first quarter.



On the economic data front, U.S. private businesses added 122,000 workers to their payrolls in December down from 146,000 in November and versus expectations of 140,000. U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 201,000 in the week ending Jan. 4, recording the lowest level in eleven months and versus market estimates of 218,000.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a positive note, with consumer staples, health care, and materials stocks recording the biggest gains on Wednesday. However, energy and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.



The Dow Jones closed higher by around 107 points to 42,635.20 on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.16% to 5,918.25, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.06% at 19,478.88 during Wednesday's session.



Investors are awaiting earnings results from Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>), and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) today.



What is CNN Business Fear &amp; Greed Index?



At a current reading of 32.4, the index remained in the &#8220;Fear&#8221; zone on Wednesday, versus a prior reading of 35.8.



The Fear &amp; Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.



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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Dow Surges Over 100 Points Following Fed Minutes: Investor Sentiment Declines, Greed Index Remains In 'Fear' Zone

President Jimmy Carter's solemn <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/movers-shakers/24/12/42716329/jimmy-carter-the-39th-us-president-who-championed-human-rights-and-peace-in-the-middle-east-had-died">state funeral</a> in Washington, D.C.&#8217;s National Cathedral Thursday brought together five living U.S. presidents, including President-elect Donald Trump, who was seated next to Barack Obama, with whom he seemed to be having a lively conversation. &nbsp;



Carter was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/jimmy-carter">president from 1977 to 1981.</a>



The first eulogy was given by one of Carter's grandsons, Joshua Carter, who said his grandfather spent his life helping people and seeking peace and justice around the world. He was followed by eulogies written by former President Gerald Ford and Walter Mondale, Carter&#8217;s vice president, before their deaths and read by the sons.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">&#8220;The First Millennialist&#8221;</h1>



Jason Carter called his grandfather the first millennialist who wanted to legalize cannabis, encouraged craft beer production, protected the environment, supported women's rights and "tried to bring peace to the Holyland."



He drew laughs when he told an endearing story about how his grandfather, a nuclear engineer, first began using a cell phone and called him: &#8220;I answered and said &#8216;Hey paw paw.&#8217; He said &#8216;Who&#8217;s this.&#8217; I said this is Jason, you called me.&#8221; 



Carter replied, &#8220;I didn&#8217;t call you, I&#8217;m taking a picture.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">President Joe Biden</h2>



In his eulogy, President Joe Biden summed up Carter's character in three words "Character, character, character." He called Carter a white Southerner who championed civil rights and established a model post-presidency.



"He showed us how character and faith start with ourselves and then flows to others. At our best, we share the better parts of ourselves — joy, solidarity, love, commitment — not for reward, but in reverence of the incredible gift of life we've all been granted, to make every minute of our time here on Earth count," Biden said. 



&#8220;We have an obligation to give hate no safe harbor and we have to stand up to what my dad used to say was the greatest sin of all — the abuse of power." At this point the cameras turned to the section of the audience where Trump was seated.



As the presidents made their way to the exit of the Cathedral, Trump, Obama and Bush went one way and Clinton another, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/us/jimmy-carter-funeral">noted</a> the NY Times. Doug Emhoff, Vice President Kamala Harris's husband shook Trump&#8217;s hand, which Bush did not, <a href="https://www.newsbreak.com/raw-story-2096750/3752745200176-watch-george-w-bush-declines-to-shake-donald-trump-s-hand-at-jimmy-carter-s-funeral">noted</a> CBS anchor Norah O&#8217;Donnell.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Final Resting Place</h1>



Following the service, Carter was taken to the Joint Base Andrews outside of Washington, D.C., to be flown on one of Air Force One jets to Georgia where there will be a final private service Thursday afternoon at Carter&#8217;s local church. Carter will be buried next to his wife, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/23/11/35865944/former-first-lady-and-mental-health-champion-rosalynn-carter-dies-at-96">Rosalynn Carter</a>, outside the home they built in 1961 and where they lived most of their lives.



&#8220;Yes, they spent four years in the governor's mansion and four years at the White House but the other 92 years they spent at home in Plains, Georgia, which first of all looks like they built themselves," said grandson Jason Carter.



"Second of all, my grandfather was likely to show up at the door in some &#8217;70s short shorts and crocs. Demonstrating their depression, era roots, they had a little rack next to the sink where they would hang Ziploc bags to dry."



Photo: Jimmy Carter in 1977; Photo by Bernard Gotfyd via Library of Congress

Cannabis

Jimmy Carter's Funeral: 5 Living Presidents Attend; Family, Colleagues Share Warm, Humorous Stories

California utility companies could come under pressure from regulators and investors after devastating Los Angeles wildfires have left at five people dead and almost 180,000 evacuated from their homes due to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42899028/la-wildfire-damages-estimated-above-52-billion-california-property-insurance-crisis">multiple wildfires</a>. 



Here's the latest.



What Happened: Areas near Los Angeles, California have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/25/01/42888380/los-angeles-fires-shut-down-production-of-tv-shows-fallout-abbott-elementary-hacks-film-premieres-canceled-critics-choice-awards-delayed">been hardest hit</a> by one of the most destructive wildfire events in the state.



At least five people are dead, found in buildings in Altadena, where the Eaton Fire exploded Tuesday night, as <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-08/fire-weather-fierce-winds-los-angeles">reported </a>by the LA Times.



179,783 people are under evacuation orders as of Thursday, according to Los Angeles Sheriff Robert Luna, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/weather/wildfires/live-blog/california-wildfires-live-updates-deadly-blazes-spread-hollywood-hills-rcna186927">NBC News </a>reported. Another 200,000 face evacuation warnings. 



Over 2,000 buildings have been burned. Multiple fires continue blazing Thursday and have not been contained.



&#8220;What we saw here in the last 24 hours is unprecedented," LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell said Wednesday. "I've never seen anything like this."



Limited resources including a lack of firefighters, firetrucks and water in fire hydrants have been reported in several regions.



California Gov. Gavin Newsom has called on the National Guard for its assistance in helping with evacuation orders and to assist with the devastating fires.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/space/25/01/42892886/spacex-ceo-elon-musk-offers-free-starlink-terminals-to-los-angeles-areas-affected-by-wildfires">SpaceX CEO Elon Musk Offers Free Starlink Terminals To Los Angeles Areas Affected By Wildfires</a>



Utility Stocks in Focus: Utility companies including Edison International (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EIX#NYSE">EIX</a>) and San Diego Gas &amp; Electric, which is owned by Sempra (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SRE#NYSE">SRE</a>), began cutting power to customers to reduce fire risk ahead of elevated winds during the week, as reported by The New York Times.



Edison plans to continue utility shutoffs for customers through Friday after already cutting power to over 150,000 customers.



Restoration of power for customers will depend on future weather, the containment of fires and inspections of power lines.



"Our top concern right now is the safety of our customers, crew members and emergency personnel," Edison spokesman David Eisenhauer said.



Edison <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250108156871/en/Edison-International-Provides-Update-on-Southern-California-Wildfires-and-SCE-Power-Outages">said </a>the fires, which it called an "extreme weather event," are an evolving situation it is monitoring.



"Safety remains our number one priority for customers, employees and our communities," the company said.



Public safety power shutoffs have been conducted by SDG&amp;E due to the dry conditions and Santa Ana winds, the company <a href="https://www.sdgetoday.com/news/sdge-responds-extreme-weather-continued-public-safety-power-shutoffs-0">said </a>Wednesday. The proactive measure is being done to protect public safety and help reduce wildfire risk.



A statement from Pacific Gas &amp; Electric (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PCG#NYSE">PCG</a>) <a href="https://www.pge.com/en/newsroom/currents/safety/southern-california-wildfires--pg-e-crews--helicopters-and-wildf.html">said </a>the company has sent helicopters and wildlife resources to the region to help with the fires, including two Blackhawk helicopters.



PG&amp;E said it is monitoring conditions in its serviced areas including Kern, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.



Edison stock was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42894683/los-angeles-wildfires-stoke-investor-fears-edison-internationals-stock-ended-10-lower-on-wednesday-amid-concerns-over-possible-equipment-links-to-forest-fires">hit the hardest</a> of the utility companies connected to the California wildfires, falling 10% to $69.50 on Wednesday. The stock is now down 5% over the last year.



Pacific Gas &amp; Electric shares fell 4% to $19.25 on Wednesday.



Sempra shares fell 2% to $82.82 on Wednesday.



These utility companies remain top holdings in utility ETFs. In the SPDR Select Sector Fund – Utilities (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>), Sempra is the sixth largest holding at 4.5% of assets, PCG 10th largest at 3.6% of assets and EIX comprises 2.3% of the ETF&#8217;s assets.



In the Vanguard Utilities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VPU#NYSE">VPU</a>), Sempra (4.3% of assets), PG&amp;E (3.2% of assets) and Edison International (2.5%) are among the largest holdings. 



Fire Cause: One of the key question on the minds of California residents and investors will be who or what caused the fire. Right now, this remains a mystery.



As the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/us/what-caused-california-fires.html">reports</a>, scrutiny of power lines will likely come after the fires, as utility equipment has led to some of the largest California wildfires in the past, including the 2018 Camp Fire that left 85 people dead.



In 2024, four wildfire incidents were caused by utility equipment, including two by Edison International-owned Southern California Edison, according to the report.



Pacific Gas &amp; Electric, which may have limited exposure to this week&#8217;s infernos, is a lesson in the liability risk that California utilities face.



The utility company declared bankruptcy in 2019 related to damages and claims from wildfires. This included a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/12/14953787/pg-e-trades-higher-on-13-5b-wildfires-settlement"> $13.5 billion settlement </a>for its alleged role in the fires. The company emerged from bankruptcy in 2020.



In 2024, Pacific Gas &amp; Electric paid $45 million in penalties related to the Dixie Fire in 2021, which state regulators found was linked to the company's power lines, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/26/us/pacific-gas-electric-settlement-dixie-fire-california/index.html">reported </a>by CNN.



California state law AB-1054, passed in 2019, established a Wildfire Fund of up to $21 billion to provide liquidity for fire events in the state and limits the liability of utility companies.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports/25/01/42889402/nhl-game-canceled-after-los-angeles-fires-nfl-monitoring-situation-ahead-of-monday-playoff-game">NHL Game Canceled After Los Angeles Fires, NFL Monitoring Situation Ahead Of Monday Playoff Game</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

5 Dead, Nearly 180,000 Evacuated In Los Angeles Wildfires: California Utilities Face Scrutiny

As Washington ramps up chip export restrictions to unfriendly countries, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) are in the midst of a geopolitical power shift that could disrupt the semiconductor <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors">industry&#8217;s global landscape.</a>



In a report shared Monday, Bloomberg outlined the Biden administration&#8217;s imminent release of updated export <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42897081/nvidia-and-ai-chip-stocks-brace-for-impact-as-biden-administration-considers-new-china-export-ban-report">rules targeting advanced semiconductors. </a>



The new measures, expected to drop Friday, intensify the U.S.&#8217;s strategic efforts to slow China's technological and military advancements by restricting access to high-performance computing chips.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">New AI Export Framework: Allies And Adversaries</h3>



The regulations will reportedly create a three-tiered structure for semiconductor exports, emphasizing access tiers for key U.S. allies, neutral nations, and restricted countries. 



China is expected to fall under the most severe tier, joining nations such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.



This tier-based framework allows certain companies in restricted countries to bypass national limits by agreeing to U.S. security protocols and human rights standards. 



These entities, designated as validated end users, would have higher caps for chip purchases, a move aimed at encouraging safer AI development globally.



The measures expand the sweeping export restrictions initiated in October 2022, which already limited sales of advanced AI chips like Nvidia's Hopper GPUs. 



These earlier rules also prohibited U.S. firms and individuals from supporting Chinese chip development without explicit government approval. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nvidia And AMD Under Scrutiny</h3>



Nvidia's specialized A800 and H800 chips, developed to comply with prior regulations, could now fall under new restrictions, potentially denting AI giant&#8217;s upcoming revenues. 



According to data firm FactSet, China accounts for approximately 16% of Nvidia&#8217;s revenue, making it the company's second-largest market after the U.S. This marks a decline from 25% prior to the 2022 export restrictions.



In 2023, AMD generated roughly $3.4 billion in revenue from China, including Hong Kong, according to Statista. This represents 15% of the company&#8217;s total revenue of $22.7 billion.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Key ETFs Tied To Nvidia And AMD</h3>



Several ETFs heavily exposed to Nvidia and AMD could face ripple effects:



Top ETFs Holding Nvidia (Percentage of Holdings):



<ul>
<li>ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>): 34.96%</li>



<li>Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHOC#NASDAQ">SHOC</a>): 21.10%</li>



<li>YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXY#NASDAQ">SOXY</a>): 20.50%</li>



<li>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>): 20.21%</li>



<li>VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMHX#NASDAQ">SMHX</a>) – 20.11%</li>
</ul>



Top ETFs Holding AMD (Percentage of Holdings):



<ul>
<li>VanEck Video Gaming and Esports ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ESPO#NASDAQ">ESPO</a>): 8.01%</li>



<li>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>): 7.12%</li>



<li>AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AOTG#NASDAQ">AOTG</a>): 7.07%</li>



<li>Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>): 7.04%</li>



<li>REX FANG &amp; Innovation Equity ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEPI#NASDAQ">FEPI</a>): 6.95%</li>
</ul>



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42888800/goldman-sachs-flags-market-correction-risk-as-inflation-trump-policies-stir-uncertainty">Goldman Sachs Flags Market Correction Risk As Inflation, Trump Policies Stir Uncertainty</a></li>
</ul>



Image created using photos from Shutterstock.

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SMHX

SOXQ

SOXX

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Biden's Final Chip Curbs Set To Shake AI Markets: 10 ETFs With High Stakes In Nvidia, AMD

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