Crypto analyst Trader Mayne says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could be gearing up for one last push above $100,000, but warns the broader cycle is starting to resemble a stretched, five-year super cycle that ends with a major downturn in 2026.

What Happened: In his latest podcast, Mayne said Bitcoin's current rally could extend into the $105,000–$110,000 range but still form a macro lower high before rolling over into a prolonged bear market next year.

He noted that while the daily chart flipped bullish ahead of Wednesday’s rate cut, BTC remains locked in a broader downtrend with two key barriers overhead:

• the yearly open at $93,800, and
• the descending daily trendline that has capped every rally.

Mayne assigns better than 50% odds that Bitcoin tops below new all-time highs.

He plans to scale out of remaining spot positions into strength, arguing that the current bearish tone provides fuel for a short-squeeze-driven push — but not a sustained breakout.

He also warned that narratives claiming the four-year cycle is "dead," or that a new five-year super cycle has begun, will likely trap late bulls.

"The end of QT is not the start of QE," he said, reiterating that 2026 could be broadly bearish, with Bitcoin potentially revisiting the $50,000 range.

Ethereum Showing Stronger Relative Momentum

Mayne highlighted Ethereum's relative strength, saying ETH may reclaim its yearly open and potentially rally toward $4,000, even turning positive on the year before Bitcoin, similar to its behavior in late 2021.

Also Read: Bitcoin Holds $90,000 As Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Show No Reaction To Fed Rate Cut

What's Next: Daan Crypto Trades noted that from a liquidity perspective, the key breakout zone remains $97,000–$98,000.

But with repeated rejections at $94,000, he expects consolidation until BTC finally clears resistance, at which point the move higher could be sharp.

Until then, he warns traders to expect sideways price action and suggests staying patient.

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• Cathie Wood Says Bitcoin Is ‘Climbing A Wall Of Worry’

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