Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) made a death cross over the weekend, a technical signal that can signal either bullish or bearish price action.
What Happened: In a X post, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that while past death crosses have frequently marked local bottoms, this pattern breaks down once the macro cycle ends.
If the current cycle is still intact, Bitcoin should stage a bounce within the next week; if it doesn't, Cowen expects another leg lower before a larger relief rally toward the 200-day SMA, likely forming a macro lower high.
He summarized his stance simply: "Trade the market you have, not the market you want."
Cowen's post has already garnered over a million views.
Market analyst Subu Trade added historical context, pointing out that after prior death crosses, in April 2025 and September 2023, Bitcoin delivered positive performance across timeframes ranging from one week to one year.
Even after the August 2024 death cross, most periods from one week to one year still showed green returns, with only a few exceptions.
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Have Wiped Out $1.1 Trillion Since BTC Hit $126,000
Why It Matters: Bitcoin's recent weekly close below the 50-week moving average is a historically bearish late-cycle signal, prompting Cowen to assign a 60%–70% probability that the cycle top is already in.
A quick reclaim of ~$103,000 would reset the odds back to even, but a second weekly close below the 50-week MA would point strongly toward a confirmed top.
If the top is indeed behind us, Bitcoin likely heads lower before eventually rallying to the 200-day moving average, a move that would set a lower high and reinforce the start of a broader downtrend.
If the cycle is not over, however, the market should show a meaningful bounce within days.
The message remains clear: respect the signals the market is giving, not the ones you hope for.
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