Crypto analyst Trader Mayne remains bullish on Bitcoin BTC/USD, arguing that the recent pullback is part of a larger consolidation before the final leg higher in this cycle.
What Happened: Mayne's thesis builds on several core factors:
- Four-Year Cycle Theory: Following Bob Lucas' framework, Mayne expects the next cycle top between late 2025 and early 2026, aligning with prior four-year cycle peaks.
- Bitcoin–Gold Ratio: Since gold typically leads Bitcoin by 60–90 days, gold's recent strength suggests Bitcoin's next major move is imminent.
- Absence of a Blowoff Top: Unlike gold and tech stocks, Bitcoin hasn't yet shown a parabolic surge, implying the current cycle's euphoria phase is still ahead.
- Timing Indicators: He expects a weekly cycle low to form soon, confirmed by a strong green candle and a hold above $98,000. Mayne predicts November's low could come early in the month, setting up for a year-end rally.
- Political Tailwinds: A potential end to the U.S. government shutdown and Trump's pro-market stance could serve as catalysts for renewed risk appetite..
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Rally 2% Despite Over $250M In ETF Outflows
Why It Matters: While optimistic, Mayne warns of bearish risks: potential institutional distribution, RSI divergences, and a stronger U.S. dollar, all of which could cap upside momentum.
He expects 2026 to be a corrective year but projects a 40–50% decline (to the $50,000–$70,000 range) rather than a full-blown 80% crash, given rising institutional support and ETF adoption.
"The plan is simple: defined entries, exits, and invalidation levels," he said, stressing that market structure remains intact until Bitcoin loses key long-term supports.
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