Bitcoin’s BTC/USD drop to the $100,000 mark signals fading demand and steady long-term holder (LTH) selling, according to a new report.
What Happened: The market remains oversold but not capitulated, with defensive risk sentiment across spot, ETF, and derivatives markets, Glassnode reports
Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the Short-Term Holders' (STH) cost basis (~$112,500) — a sign that bullish momentum has weakened.
The next key structural support sits near $88,500, corresponding to the active investors' realized price. Roughly 71% of supply remains in profit, keeping BTC near the lower end of the mid-cycle equilibrium (70–90%).
Notably, long-term holders have sold over 300,000 BTC since July 2025, shifting from "selling into strength" to "selling into weakness."
Overall, around 2.4 million BTC (~12% of total supply) has been spent by LTHs, with only partial offsets from new coin maturations, reflecting growing fatigue among seasoned investors.
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Rally 2% Despite Over $250M In ETF Outflows
Why It Matters: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped to steady outflows between –$150 million and –$700 million daily, erasing months of inflow momentum from September–October and indicating waning institutional participation.
- CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) remains negative (–800 to –900 BTC), underscoring continued net selling and weak buy-side aggression.
- Perpetual funding rates dropped from $338 million/month to $118 million, showing traders deleveraging and turning risk averse.
Overall, Bitcoin's market structure is fragile but orderly — distribution without panic. The current phase reflects controlled revaluation amid weak institutional demand, not a full-blown capitulation.
Until ETF inflows and spot demand recover, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a mild bear phase, with a gradual grind lower more probable than a sharp collapse.
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