Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen cautioned that Bitcoin BTC/USD may be mirroring its 2019 topping structure, with October's high potentially marking the mid-cycle peak ahead of a deeper correction.
What Happened: In his latest podcast, Cowen noted two crucial signals:
- The time-based ROI from cycle lows has reached its historical upper limit.
- Macro conditions closely resemble 2019, when Bitcoin topped just before the end of quantitative tightening (QT).
With the Fed expected to conclude QT in December 2025, Cowen sees this as a possible cycle midpoint, not the final post-halving high.
He raised the probability of the top being in from 40% to 50%, suggesting that if confirmed, the bear market bottom could form by October 2026, roughly one year later, consistent with previous cycle patterns.
Cowen emphasized that confirmation would come if Bitcoin closes multiple weeks below its 50-week moving average (~$103,000), the same signal that marked the 2021 top.
Also Read: Bitcoin Below $102,000 As ‘Extreme Fear’ Sentiment Takes Down Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin
What's Next: Cowen noted that while traditional top indicators like the Pi Cycle Top haven't triggered, any future rally would likely be Bitcoin-led, with altcoins underperforming, potentially falling another 30% against BTC.
He expects Bitcoin dominance to surge into December, followed by weakening momentum as QT ends and rate cuts begin. Even in bullish scenarios, Cowen warned of marginal new highs at best, citing market exhaustion and macro headwinds:
"The price of Bitcoin today is the same as it was 11 months ago," he said, adding that 2026 could mirror past mid-cycle bear years like 2014, 2018, and 2022.
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