Bitcoin To Drop To $100,000 Before A New All-Time High? Polymarket Traders Say Yes, But...

Bitcoin BTC/USD hovering under $110,000 has traders debating whether support will hold or a drop below $100,000 is imminent.

What Happened: Position trader Bob Loukas noted on X that Bitcoin is approaching its Weekly Cycle Low, five weeks after peaking.

While $118,000 would confirm a new cycle, short-term control remains with the bears.

Loukas highlighted that BTC failed to break its all-time highs in mid-August, signaling the weekly cycle peaked around Week 18.

Despite this, he remains bullish on the late-stage 4-year cycle, citing altcoins holding up as BTC dominance drops—a classic late-cycle pattern.

Trader Joe Consorti pointed out that Bitcoin endured $2.75 billion in long liquidations across just four days, two of the three largest events of 2025.

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten drew parallels to September 2024: Bitcoin trended higher, then fell 11% after losing the trend line, consolidated for two weeks, and broke higher in mid-October, without breaching the early September lows.

Also Read: Bitcoin Tumbles To $111,000: Bear Market Beginnings Or Still A Bull Market Dip?

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Why It Matters: Prediction markets show traders now see a 61% chance of Bitcoin dipping below $100,000 before 2026, up from 41% last week.

Similarly, the probability of BTC hitting $100,000 before $130,000 has jumped to 61% from 36% as of Sep. 19.

These predictions come on the heels of a major options expiry today, with over $22.3 billion set to expire on Deribit.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said BlackRock has registered the iShares Bitcoin Premium ETF, a covered call strategy designed to generate yield for Bitcoin holders.

This product would complement its iShares Bitcoin ETF IBIT, which has seen $60.7 billion in inflows since January 2024.

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