Bitcoin Will Correct Further In September, Analyst Maintains

Prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has emphasized his expectation of a September pullback for Bitcoin BTC/USD, highlighting critical support levels to watch.

What Happened: In an Aug. 25 podcast, Benjamin Cowen reaffirmed his September correction thesis for Bitcoin, projecting a pullback to the bull market support band below $110,000 after Ethereum's new all-time high cleared the way for downside.

He highlights $124,000 as recurring resistance, noting its alignment with past cycle peaks at "10x levels" (e.g., $1,240 in 2013 and $12,400 in 2020).

Cowen cites historical September weakness in post-halving years (2013, 2017, 2021) where Bitcoin often retested the 20/21-week MAs.

Ethereum’s breakthrough above $4,867 removes a key constraint on Bitcoin’s downside path.

“I said over many times that Bitcoin would go to the bull market support band, but only after Ethereum puts in new all-time highs,” Cowen noted.

He expects Ethereum to face a ~30% correction, amplifying Bitcoin's decline below the 20-week SMA, though ultimate cycle support rests at the 50-week MA.

Also Read: Peter Schiff Predicts Bitcoin Could Sink To $75,000: ‘Sell Now, Buy Back Lower’

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Why It Matters: Cowen’s cycle framework hinges on the 50-week moving average as the ultimate support level.

“I would argue that on a couple of weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, that would be a sign that the cycle would be over,” he stated.

Historical data shows 60-70% drops following sustained breaks below this level in 2014 and 2021.

Despite short-term rallies or fake outs, Cowen warns that volatility could precede the correction, with divergences suggesting the $124,000 peak may have been a false breakout. The bull market support band will be the first battleground for buyers, but deeper downside remains possible if it fails.

Overall, Cowen maintains that a September reset is healthy, setting up potential recovery and stronger upside in October–Q4. The thesis hinges on respecting historical cycle behaviour and risk management rather than personal bias.

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