Strategy's MSTR Keeps Underperforming Bitcoin: What's Driving The Divergence?

Strategy MSTR is lagging Bitcoin BTC/USD despite BTC hitting all-time highs this week, raising concerns among traders about whether investing in the leading Bitcoin treasury company still makes sense.

What Happened: Strategy's premium over its Bitcoin holdings has dropped sharply, with its basic net asset value (NAV) premium now at 1.4 and its self-reported mNAV at 1.61 — both at their lowest since February 2024.

This decline has been ongoing since November 2024 and coincides with rare underperformance against BTC.

Over the past six months, Bitcoin is up 20.5%, while MSTR has gained only 9.3%, a stark reversal from its historical tendency to outperform — including a 183% surge in the past year compared to BTC's 98%.

Traders point to shareholder dilution and a growing disconnect from Bitcoin's price action as key concerns.

Saylor's View vs. Market Reality

Michael Saylor argues MSTR should trade at a premium to Bitcoin NAV due to "Credit Amplification, an Options Advantage, Passive Flows, and superior Institutional Access."

But that premium has been sliding since late 2024, now at its weakest point in nearly a year and a half.

Also Read: Tom Lee Believes Strategy Could Become The Biggest Company If Bitcoin Hits $1 Million: Michael Saylor Is ‘Changing The Reality’ Of The Stock Market

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Traders Warn ‘Local Support Lost'

Crypto Twitter has slammed Strategy for its underperformance against Bitcoin. Crypto trader and YouTuber for crypto tips Heidi criticized MSTR's repeated share issuance to fund BTC purchases, calling it a direct cost to shareholders. Jason Leavitt warned that the underperformance could be a bearish signal for all Bitcoin treasury stocks.

LFG.HODL lamented that while BTC hits new highs, MSTR trades in the red, and J. Fong noted that MSTR is near April lows with key support broken.

One Bitcoin trader, Brett, pointed out that in the last cycle, MSTR peaked 274 days before BTC's top; in this cycle, MSTR's peak was 268 days ago, with charts showing BTC making higher highs while MSTR prints lower highs.

While history may not repeat exactly, traders are watching closely for signs that the pattern will finally break.

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