Bitcoin's BTC/USD four-year growth cycle, historically used by traders to time market peaks and corrections, continues to follow a trend of diminishing returns.
Bitcoin Slows Since April 2024 Halving
The first halving cycle saw extreme appreciation, with the price exploding over 5000%, as shown below. The gains have progressively fallen in the subsequent cycles, with the apex cryptocurrency returning only 91% since the April 2024 halving.
But is it rational to expect such volatility cycle after cycle?
| Cycle | Start Price (Halving) | End Price (Next Cycle/Peak) | Total Gain (%) | Nasdaq Composite Gains In A Similar Period |
| 2012–2016 | $12.53 | $666.52 | 5219.39% | 65.68% |
| 2016–2020 | $666.52 | $8,756.43 | 1213.75% | 85.45% |
| 2020–2024 | $8,756.43 | $63,843.57 | 629.105% | 66.25% |
| 2024–Current | $63,843.57 | $122,080 | 91.2174% | 40.3612% |
See Also: Peter Thiel Once Said Bitcoin Was ‘Systematically Underestimated’ For Years — Does This Still Hold True Today?
Bitcoin Has More Institutional Exposure
"Bitcoin’s not some scrappy underdog anymore, there's substantially more institutional exposure, heavier regulation overhead, more liquidity. You can't expect it to 10x every four years forever," Kevin He, co-founder of Bitlayer, said in a note to Benzinga.
Kevin added that the four-year halving narrative might be "showing its age" and worked when Bitcoin was mostly retail-driven and reflexive.
Signs Of Maturity?
On similar lines, Himanshu Maradiya, Founder & Chairman, CIFDAQ, stressed that today's Bitcoin landscape is shaped by institutional participation and regulatory frameworks.
"This maturing trend suggests that while Bitcoin may no longer deliver the same exponential gains, it's becoming a more stable and globally integrated asset," Maradiya added.
It's worth noting that multinational bank Standard Chartered said in a recent report that the second half of 2025 will significantly deviate from previous halving cycle patterns.
It’s worth noting that despite the diminishing returns, Bitcoin’s gains in the ongoing cycle were significantly higher than those of the Nasdaq Composite stock index.
What To Expect Next
Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures and author of the book “Bitcoin Supercycle,” predicted Bitcoin to rise roughly 3x from the April 2024 price to $193,000, plus or minus 20% for macroeconomic factors and sentiment.
“If we go any higher than $235,000, we have likely entered the Supercycle,” Terpin said.
Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $122,080, up 3.51% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro. Year-to-date, the coin has gained over 30%.
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