Trump's Crypto Retirement Move Sparks Bitcoin Surge, How Much Higher Can It Go?

Bitcoin‘s BTC/USD sharp rebound to retest the $117,000 level has renewed trader interest, driven in part by recent U.S. policy moves expanding 401(k) access to crypto and mounting speculation over government-led debt monetization.

But despite the momentum, analysts at 10x Research say the rally still lacks a decisive macro catalyst to sustain a true breakout.

"Bitcoin has rebounded faster and more sharply than we anticipated—surprisingly, on news that surfaced three weeks ago: that U.S. retirement accounts may soon be permitted to allocate into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies," the report notes.

The asset dipped to a low of $111,643 on August 7.

From there, the rally gained steam.

In addition to retirement access, several new catalysts emerged: "Trump signed an order expanding access to alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts, nominated crypto-friendly Stephen Miran to the Fed board, and imposed a 39% tax on 1kg gold imports."

That gold tariff in particular drew attention due to its possible connection to an earlier statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who in February said, "Within the next 12 months, we are going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet."

Analysts say this narrative has fueled further investor interest in Bitcoin as a hedge.

"While Bitcoin is not strictly an inflation hedge, it serves as a hedge against money printing… and, more importantly, against debt monetization," the report states.

Also Read: Can A Crypto Quant Firm Scale Like A Hedge Fund? Algoz Thinks, So Here’s The Data

Since the $5 trillion U.S. debt ceiling increase, the national debt has surged by $735 billion, adding pressure to the argument that alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin and gold could gain favor.

Still, Bitcoin's technical resistance at $117,000 remains intact.

"Bitcoin is not yet breaking out," the analysts write, noting that $117,000 is "still capping the move." A potential resistance level is identified at $119,930, while the 21-day moving average of $115,750 is flagged as a tactical stop-loss zone.

On Ethereum BTC/USD, the outlook is less clear.

Monthly active addresses have surged to a record 8.8 million, but 10x suggests that much of the rally appears speculative.

"Ethereum's rally is running on narrative fuel, not fundamentals — a setup that can turn quickly."

Ethereum's recent price action has been shaped by what the report describes as "quick and violent price moves that resembled a guaranteed price at a specific time," potentially linked to institutional activity.

Despite short-term strength, the report emphasizes that both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in vulnerable positions.

"The market is in a phase where it will take multiple doses of positive news to shift momentum," the report concludes. "The real breakout, and the best trade of Q3, will come when the next big catalyst hits, and we'll be ready to act."

Read Next: Two Seas Capital Opposes Core Scientific–CoreWeave Merger, Calls Deal Undervalued, Risky For Shareholders

Photo: Shutterstock