Zinger Key Points
- ETH’s circulating supply grew by only 0.80 million per year, making it especially sensitive to sharp increases in institutional demand.
- Hougan emphasized short-term market dynamics are dominated by supply-demand imbalances, with ETH currently in high demand.
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Ethereum's ETH/USD recent price rally is being driven by a sharp imbalance between new supply and institutional demand, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
What Happened: In an X thread posted on Tuesday, Hougan cited data showing that Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate treasuries have purchased over 2.83 million ETH since mid-May, more than 32 times the net new supply generated by the network in the same period.
Hougan's analysis follows Ethereum's 50% price increase in the past month and a more than 150% rise since its April lows.
The surge, he says, is not speculative but rather grounded in fundamentals.
"ETPs and Corporate Treasuries have combined to buy 2.83 million ETH since May 15—more than $10 billion at today's prices. That’s 32x net new supply," Hougan wrote.
ETH's rally marks a shift from earlier in the year.
For the first four months of 2025, Ethereum's price declined as demand for ETPs remained muted.
Between the launch of ETH ETPs in July 2024 and May 15, 2025, total ETH purchases by these vehicles stood at just 660,000 ETH, nearly matched by 543,000 ETH in new issuance over the same period.
The result: flat price action.
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That changed rapidly in May, Hougan said, as both institutional demand and new corporate treasury strategies picked up pace.
Firms such as Bitmine BMNR and SharpLink SBET have publicly disclosed Ethereum holdings, and inflows into spot ETH ETPs have topped $5 billion since mid-May.
What’s Next: While Ethereum's market cap is roughly 19% the size of Bitcoin's, ETH ETPs have gathered less than 12% of the assets compared to Bitcoin ETPs, according to Hougan.
He suggests this asset gap may continue to narrow as demand persists.
Hougan added that corporate interest appears to be rising, citing signs that companies holding ETH in their treasuries are trading at a premium relative to the value of their assets, a dynamic that historically supports further accumulation.
Though Ethereum's monetary policy differs from Bitcoin's—ETH does not have a hard supply cap—Hougan emphasized that short-term price action is driven by basic supply and demand.
"All signs suggest the ‘ETH treasury company' trend will accelerate," he wrote. "In the short term, the price of everything is set by supply and demand."
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