Bitcoin Dips Below $117,000: What On-Chain Data Reveals About The Next Big Price Shift

Bitcoin BTC/USD is down nearly 5% from its all-time high of $122,838, trading at $116,880 as of Tuesday morning European time, as the broader crypto market pauses ahead of key macroeconomic data and reacts to a spike in large-scale on-chain activity.

Ethereum ETH/USD has also dipped, down 2.5% to around $2,980.

What Experts Are Saying: Speaking with Benzinga, analysts say the move is largely a correction following a rapid run-up, compounded by heightened uncertainty around U.S. inflation data and growing signs of profit-taking by major holders.

"It's expected that after a large run, some correction is likely, especially following an uninterrupted move from $108K to $122K," said Nicolai Sondergaard, Research Analyst at Nansen. "We now see quite some heavy liquidation levels around $116.3K which is something to watch next as an immediate psychological level."

On-chain data from CryptoQuant confirms that whales—large Bitcoin holders—have begun repositioning.

According to the firm, over 1,800 BTC were deposited onto Binance in a single day, with transactions over $1 million accounting for more than 35% of total inflows.

These movements are typically viewed as precursors to increased volatility.

"This activity on Binance is a critical market signal," the firm noted, citing the exchange's dominant position in global spot and derivatives trading.

The whale inflows suggest either profit-taking after the rally or preparations to hedge against downside risk ahead of CPI data.

Bitfinex analysts attributed the pullback to a combination of factors, including the recent rally's exhaustion and caution ahead of U.S. inflation figures due later today. "Bitcoin's recent pullback appears to be a natural breather following fresh all-time highs, alongside a cautious wait-and-see stance ahead of today's CPI release."

They added that if core inflation exceeds 3.2%, it could delay Federal Reserve easing, lift the dollar, and put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Also Read: Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, Solana Are In For A ‘Long And Exhausting Bull Market,’ Bernstein Predicts

"That would strengthen the dollar and hurt demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, potentially extending the pullback by another 5–10%, based on prior CPI events."

On the other hand, a softer-than-expected print—such as a headline figure below 2.5% and core easing toward 2.9%—could revive bullish momentum.

"A similar outcome today could push Bitcoin back toward $120K+ again especially if ETF inflows remain strong as they have in the past 2 weeks," Bitfinex said.

Longer term, structural factors such as U.S. tariffs could keep CPI elevated near 2.9%, which analysts say may limit the scale or duration of any policy-driven rally.

Altcoin markets, which had shown renewed strength following Bitcoin's recent high, are also under pressure.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, pointed to a typical capital rotation pattern: "The recent surge in altcoins following Bitcoin's all-time high reflects a classic capital rotation pattern, as traders seek higher beta plays after BTC's initial breakout."

Lee said Ethereum could range between $2,500 and $3,500 in Q3 depending on DeFi activity and ETF momentum, while Solana SOL/USD and XRP's XRP/USD trajectories will depend on network growth and regulatory outcomes respectively.

What’s Next: Market experts suggest that the next move for Bitcoin and by extension, the rest of the crypto market, will hinge on today's inflation data and how it influences interest rate expectations.

Whale behavior and ETF flows will also remain key variables.

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