Bitcoin Enters Historically Weak Q3 With Mixed Feelings: Report

Bitcoin BTC/USD has remained range-bound since early May, and analysts expect this trend to persist in the upcoming quarter.

What Happened: Bitfinex highlighted in its latest Bitfinex Alpha report that Bitcoin is consolidating between $100,000 and $110,000, following a 50% rally from April lows near $74,634.

This is the first major slowdown in momentum since that surge began.

Bitcoin briefly tested critical support at $99,830 last week amid escalating Middle East tensions, triggering significant liquidations on both sides.

The selloff resulted in $58.6 million in long liquidations and $65.2 million in short liquidations within 24 hours, while futures open interest dropped over 7% as leveraged positions were cleared out.

Key on-chain indicators show a decline in spot volumes, lower taker buy pressure, and increased profit-taking, especially from short-term holders, all signaling a local top or extended consolidation.

Despite the slowdown, Bitcoin's macro structure remains intact.

Strong support between $94,000 and $99,000 continues to hold.

The key technical level to watch remains Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price around $98,700, which “has acted as a key structural level, successfully acting as support with dip buyers accumulating Bitcoin there,” according to the report.

This level represents the cost basis for holders over the last 155 trading days and has served as both support and resistance throughout the current bull cycle.

Also Read: Bitcoin’s ‘Perfect Storm’ Could Extend Bull Run Into 2026: Report

What's Next: Bitfinex notes Q3 is historically Bitcoin's weakest quarter, averaging just 6.03% returns, significantly lower than 27.12% in Q2, and is often marked by lower volatility.

This seasonal pattern, coupled with the current technical setup, supports the outlook for continued sideways price action unless disrupted by a major macroeconomic event or ETF-driven catalyst.

Recent volatility in the futures market has caused liquidations on both sides, with BTC-denominated open interest falling 7.2%.

This de-leveraging flush likely reset speculative positioning, paving the way for more structurally sound accumulation in the weeks ahead.

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