Bitcoin Hitting $1 Million By 2028 'Is Just Easy' With These 3 Policy Shifts, Says Arthur Hayes

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028 through three key policy mechanisms that would inject approximately $9 trillion into the economy—more than double the COVID-era stimulus.

What Happened: “The amount of money printing that’s going to happen between now and 2028 is going to dwarf what we saw during the 2020 to 2022 COVID period,” Hayes told attendees at the 2025 Bitcoin Conference on Thursday.

Hayes identified Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the key figure driving these policies, describing him as essentially “a used car salesman” whose job is to sell bonds despite their poor performance.

According to Hayes’ analysis, bonds have underperformed the NASDAQ by 80% since 2017, gold by 80% and Bitcoin by 99%.

The first mechanism involves capital controls disguised as tax policy.

Hayes pointed out that removing the withholding tax exemption for foreign Treasury bond holders, implemented in 1984, could “raise over a trillion dollars over a decade by basically taxing foreigners.”

This would likely drive foreign investors away, requiring the Federal Reserve to replace that demand through money printing.

The second component centers on the supplemental leverage ratio exemption for banks.

“It’s a way for banks to buy bonds with infinite leverage,” Hayes stressed, noting that Bessent has discussed this in multiple Bloomberg and Fox News interviews.

This would allow commercial banks to purchase Treasury bonds without capital requirements, similar to COVID-era policies.

The third element involves freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship.

Hayes estimates this could inject “$5 trillion of liquidity” into markets, as these government-sponsored entities would be “allowed to take their equity capital, issue more debt with an implicit government guarantee and leverage it 33 times.”

Also Read: Ethereum Becoming More Attractive For Institutional Investors, JPMorgan Analysts Say

Why It Matters: Hayes calculated that these three mechanisms could create approximately $9 trillion in new liquidity: $3 trillion from increased bank lending, $900 billion to replace foreign Treasury demand and $5 trillion from mortgage market expansion.

Comparing this to COVID stimulus, Hayes noted that the pandemic response totaled about $4 trillion and drove Bitcoin from its March 2020 lows to $70,000 by November 2021—roughly a 10x increase.

“If we’re printing double the amount of money between now and 2028 than we did during COVID, then Bitcoin $1 million is just easy,” he concluded.

The analysis assumes continued ETF demand reducing Bitcoin supply on exchanges while this massive liquidity injection occurs, creating favorable supply-demand dynamics for the cryptocurrency.

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