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The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in Benchmark Component Futures Contracts. Under normal market conditions, the manager expects that 100% of the fund’s assets will be invested in benchmark component futures contracts and in cash and cash equivalents.

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President Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">latest tariff moves</a> are shaking up global trade, but China may have a familiar counterstrike in mind. 
According to JPMorgan analyst Brian P. Ossenbeck, agricultural exports—particularly corn, wheat, and soybeans—are prime targets for Chinese retaliation. 
Any new developments on this front could be relevant to investors in the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CORN#NYSE">CORN</a>), the Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEAT#NYSE">WEAT</a>) and the Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOYB#NYSE">SOYB</a>).
With a history of leveraging tariffs to disrupt U.S. farm exports, Beijing could once again use this tactic to put pressure on American producers and policymakers.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/02/43432736/copper-stocks-on-shaky-ground-jpmorgan-analysts-say-tariffs-deepseek-cloud-outlook">Copper Stocks On Shaky Ground, JPMorgan Analysts Say: Tariffs, DeepSeek Cloud Outlook</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Familiar Playbook: Agriculture As A Pressure Point</h2>
Ossenbeck highlights that U.S. agricultural exports to China, especially soybeans, have been heavily impacted by past trade tensions. "A study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found tariffs reduced U.S. agricultural exports by $27 billion in 2018-2019 and soybeans accounted for the majority of the decline at 71%." 
If history repeats itself, American farmers could face another round of painful disruptions.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Railroads On Alert</h2>
The impact of potential tariffs won't stop at the farms. U.S. rail giants like BNSF (2.5% exposure) and Union Pacific Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNP#NYSE">UNP</a>) (1% exposure) are directly tied to soybean exports and could feel the squeeze. 
Ossenbeck's analysis suggests that retaliatory tariffs on grains could weigh on transportation stocks, adding another layer of volatility to the already embattled Transports sector. Investors in the iShares US Transportation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYT#NYSE">IYT</a>) should remain wary of their holdings.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trade Tensions Fuel Import Rush</h2>
Meanwhile, data from JPMorgan indicates that importers have been bracing for impact. Ossenbeck points to a "pull-forward of imports from China that started in 2H24 and appears to have continued into early 2025." 
January containerized imports hit an all-time record, signaling that businesses have been stockpiling goods ahead of expected tariffs.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Volatile Road Ahead</h2>
While a 30-day delay on tariffs for Mexico and Canada brought temporary relief to markets, "we are hardly sounding the ‘all clear' after the first salvo in what could be a long and volatile trade war on multiple fronts," says Ossenbeck. 
Investors should stay alert, as China's next move could be just around the corner—potentially hitting U.S. agriculture where it hurts most.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43454424/china-strikes-back-new-tariffs-up-to-15-on-certain-us-imports-in-retaliation-for-trumps-10-levy-on-chinese-goods">China Strikes Back: New Tariffs Up To 15% On Certain US Imports In Retaliation For Trump&#8217;s 10% Levy On Chinese Goods</a></li>
</ul>
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iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund

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China's Retaliatory Tariff Playbook: Corn, Wheat, Soybeans In The Crosshairs

On Tuesday, Teucrium added the Relative Strength Managed Volatility Strategy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSMV#NYSE">RSMV</a>) to its ETF lineup, bringing Teucrium's U.S.-listed ETF tally to nine. This <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">actively managed fund</a> targets long-term capital appreciation for investors while managing risk in volatile markets.
The ETF invests in U.S. growth companies, mainly large-cap stocks with market caps exceeding $10 billion. The portfolio includes 20-50 securities. The ETF keeps the allocation dynamic, meaning during periods of heightened market volatility, it may allocate assets to fixed-income securities, cash, or cash equivalents as a defense.
Top holdings of this fund include United Health (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>).
The fund evaluates macroeconomic conditions and allocates sector weights via a top-down approach. On the other hand, it adopts a bottom-up strategy to pick out individual securities. The fund keeps itself flexible to invest in other ETFs or REITs to improve growth prospects.
The Relative Strength Managed Volatility Strategy ETF has a net expense ratio of 0.95%, which is reasonable considering its active management strategy and risk management features.
The fund&#8217;s active management provides both offensive and defensive benefits. The fund has the advantage of benefiting from momentum-driven market trends and high-growth opportunities. Meanwhile, it can also reduce downside risks during volatile times by allocating to Treasuries and high-quality bonds.
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Egypt Proposing To Use Corn Flour In Subsidised Bread From April In Effort To Cut Wheat Imports; Government Has Also Considered Using Cheaper Sorghum For 20% Of Flour Used In Breadmaking; Government Dropped Earlier Plan To Increase Extraction Rate For Wheat Flour, Sources Say

As <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39583371">cities in the U.S. continue to break their historical heat records</a>, workers, lawmakers and businesses across the country are launching a debate: should the state grant protections for workers in extreme heat conditions?
Most of the country has been under heat alerts since rising temperatures began breaking comfortable levels in early July.
On Tuesday, meteorologists began warning people living in Midwestern and East Coast states. An upcoming heat wave is expected to break records in many cities, putting 140 million Americans under heat alert.
Earlier this month, at least 50 cities saw their historical heat records broken by a heat wave that affected most of the Southwest. Palm Springs, California and Las Vegas reached 124 and 120 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/07/11/temperature-records-heat-wave-west/74372547007/">USA Today </a>reported.
Many cities and localities in the East Coast are expected to surpass their historical average highs on this week.
The trend is global, with the last 13 months marking the highest temperatures on record for that month, according to official EU data from the Copernicus Programme.
The upcoming heat wave in the U.S. is expected to be dangerously lethal. At least 28 people have died this summer due to extreme heat events, according to a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/10/heat-wave-us-death-toll/">report</a> by the Washington Post.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Should Workers Have Federal, State Protections For Heat Risk?</h3>
Rising temperatures across the globe are forcing people to change their living habits, including how many hours of the day they can spend outside without air conditioning.
This has serious consequences for work, especially in sectors that require workers to be exposed to high temperatures under the sun for an extended period of time.
These encompass delivery and postal workers, the construction and agriculture sectors as well as those working in infrastructure repairs and gardening in urban environments, among others.
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Health risks for workers include "heat exhaustion and heat stroke, occupational injuries from high heat exposure such as burns or falls from dizziness, and exacerbation of preexisting conditions such as asthma, kidney disease, or heart disease," according to reports by the Center for Disease Control and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).
Earlier this month, the Biden administration proposed a new rule that, for the first time, could introduce protections for workers exposed to health risks due to rising heat levels, whether outdoors or indoors.
The proposal comes from OSHA, and outlines actions that employers should take to protect their employees from heat risks. If finalized, the rule could add protections for 35 million employees nationwide.
"The purpose of this rule is simple. It is to significantly reduce the number of work-related deaths, injuries and illnesses suffered by workers who are exposed to excessive heat and exposed to these risks while simply doing their jobs," an administration official told reporters on a press call, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/02/osha-workers-extreme-heat-protections/">according</a> to the Post.
The rule would introduce actions that employers must fulfill if the weather passes two specific temperature marks. Above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, employers must offer drinking water and break areas, as well as plan out the work schedule in an incremental rhythm for the bodies of workers to adapt to the heat.
At 90 degrees, employees must be monitored for signs of heat illness and take mandatory 15-minute breaks every two hours.
No federal heat protection law is in place, and only five states exercise worker safety precautions: California, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon and Washington.
The timeline for OSHA's proposal would make it final by 2026. Its rollout will largely <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/07/39780356/trumps-2024-election-betting-odds-hit-record-high-after-assassination-attempt-payouts-for-ex-pre">depend on who wins the U.S. presidency in November</a>. A victory for Donald Trump would likely threaten its existence.
High-profile Republicans have voiced opposition to worker protections for heat risk. Republicans have traditionally stood against policies related to climate change that are liable to impact businesses or industries.
In Florida, where some of the highest temperatures in the country have registered in recent years, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, recently signed a piece of legislation barring local governments from raising protections for workers exposed to heat.
Texas had passed a similar bill the previous year, which was dubbed the "Death Star law." The bill was ruled unconstitutional by a judge, after Houston, El Paso and San Antonio presented lawsuits against it.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Industry Impacts</h3>
Progressive voices like the Center for American Progress have written that exposing workers to heat risk can have bad consequences for the economy, including "lost worker productivity, increased health care costs and worker compensation claims, and threats to workers' financial stability from missing work."
For conservatives, adding protections for workers can reduce productivity for businesses and lead to a loss in competitiveness.
Business groups lobbying against the OSHA rule argue that trigger temperatures proposed by the rule should not be set as a blanket policy nationwide, as workers from different parts of the country have different tolerance thresholds for heat.
For workers in Florida, "an 80-degree threshold for them isn't going to be considered hot," said Prianka Sharma, vice president and counsel for regulatory affairs for The American Road &amp; Transportation Builders Association.
Multiple ETFs follow industries that can be affected by changes in policy around heat risk.
iShares US Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) is the largest ETF by total assets following the construction industry. It's followed by SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>) and the Invesco Building &amp; Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKB#NYSE">PKB</a>).
Agriculture is another major sector that affected by the heat issue. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBA#NYSE">DBA</a>) leads the list by total assets, with Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEAT#NYSE">WEAT</a>) and First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strat ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAAR#NASDAQ">FAAR</a>) next.
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Scorching Heat Breaks Records, But 2024 Election Outcome May Hold Worker Protections Hostage

<a href="https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0624.pdf" title="https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0624.pdf">https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0624.pdf</a>

Macro Economic Events

U.S. Department Of Agriculture Issues June 12, 2024 World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates (Link In Body)

<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-pm-tusk-says-he-will-meet-protesting-farmers-thursday-2024-02-28/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-pm-tusk-says-he-will-meet-protesting-farmers-thursday-2024-02-28/</a>
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday he would meet protesting farmers' leaders on Thursday, as demonstrations continued across the country.
Farmers across Europe have been protesting for weeks against constraints placed on them by EU regulations meant to tackle climate change, as well as rising costs and what they say is unfair competition from outside the EU, particularly Ukraine.
"I have convened an agricultural summit in Warsaw for tomorrow ... I will meet with the leaders of all protesting groups," he said during a press conference.
"We have a very important problem. We are the most pro-Ukrainian nation when it comes to aid, but we have the biggest problems in Europe resulting from the war."
He added a current EU proposal to limit the amount of food products arriving from Ukraine to levels from the last two years was "unacceptable" for Poland and it wanted the reference amount to be set at levels from before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
He said that he was ready to take tough decisions regarding the border in consultation with Ukraine.
"I do not hide the fact that we are talking to Ukraine about temporarily closing the border," he said.
On Wednesday, thousands of Polish farmers took to the streets of Warsaw.

iShares MSCI Poland Investable Market Index Fund ETF

EPOL

"'Polish PM Tusk Says He Will Meet Protesting Farmers On Thursday; Says 'I Do Not Hide The Fact That We Are Talking To Ukraine About Temporarily Closing The Border'" - Reuters News

Ukraine Prime Minister Arrived At Polish Border To Discuss Farmer Protests On Friday, But Polish Officials Did Not Show Up

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Big Purchase</h2>
Between October and mid-December 2023, China purchased a massive amount of wheat, totaling 60 million bushels. This included a record-breaking weekly total of 55 million bushels. This unexpected development occurred when U.S. wheat prices had recently hit multi-year lows. Despite initial indications of a record-low year for U.S. wheat exports in 2023/24, China&#8217;s sudden purchases are expected to improve prospects in the face of strong competition from other exporting nations.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Now?</h2>
China, dealing with issues of wheat quality due to untimely rains during harvest season, is projected to be the top global wheat importer in 2023/24. This has led to increased global demand for affordable wheat.&nbsp;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Price Action&nbsp;</h2>
Market players took a significant net short position on U.S. wheat contracts in late 2023, exacerbating downward price trends. The recent uptick in Chinese purchases may signal a reversal, potentially alleviating downward pressure on wheat prices. While not guaranteeing a rally, it suggests a shift in the U.S. wheat market.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Agricultural Diplomacy</h2>
China's impact on the US Agricultural market is clear. But international purchasing is always in flux and it&#8217;s critical to keep up relations. Last month, during APAC &#8211; the Asia-Pacific Advancement Conference &#8211; China's President Xi Jinping met with Soybean farmers representing their interests. The representatives came from the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) and advocated for China to increase its imports from the US.
China plays a pivotal role as the leading global soybean market, importing 60% of all internationally traded soybeans and around 30% of the annual U.S. soybean production. The significance of maintaining this relationship is crucial for both nations.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Opportunities For Investors</h2>
Understanding the impact China has on US agriculture is critical for investors looking to get involved. Individual investors can get involved in the commodities markets by trading futures, but this can be a complicated practice out of reach of many investors. Even for seasoned traders, pitfalls abound. Another alternative is investing in a commodity ETF, like those offered by <a href="https://teucrium.com/index">Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC</a>. The firm offers a host of agricultural funds carefully curated to give investors simple, liquid access to commodities, funds like Teucrium Wheat ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEAT#NYSE">WEAT</a>) and Teucrium Soybean ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOYB#NYSE">SOYB</a>).

A Month After Xi Jinping Meets With Iowan Farmers, China's Outsized Impact On US Commodity Markets Is Made Clear With Historic Buying Spree

Ukraine's Zelenskiy Tells World Leaders At UN That Russia's Trying To Weaponize Global Food Shortage In Return For Recognition Of Some, If Not All, Of The Ukrainian Territory It Has Captured

Legal

Ukraine Says It Has Filed A Lawsuit Against Several EU Neighbors Over Their Grain Import Bans

Federal Reserve

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen Says We Are Focused On Climate Change And Its Impact On Developing Countries; Focused On Food Shortages Especially In Black Sea

Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Says Due To Russian Attacks Danube Ports Have Already Reduced Their Export Potential By Almost 0.5m Tons Of Grain Per Month

-Reuters Citing Russia&#39;s Tass

Eurozone

Futures

Kremlin Said Grain Deal Is On Hold, No Progress Yet -

iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov Says Supply Of 1M Tons Of Grain As Discussed Between Russia, Turkey And Qatar Would Be On Top Of Russia's Grain Supplies To Africa Free Of Charge

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov Says We Don't See Any New Guarantees On Grain Deal; West Hampers Russian Grain, Fertilizers Exports; If Promises Are Fulfilled Tomorrow, Then The Grain Deal Could Be Resumed Tomorrow

Moscow-Turkey's Foreign Minister SaysRussia Has Some Demands Regarding Exports Of Its Own Grain; UN-Prepared New Package For Grain Deal Important

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov Says As Soon As There Is Concrete Decisions We Will Be Ready To Resume Ukraine's Part Of Black Sea Grain Deal

U.S. Working With Romania To Potentially Double Ukraine Grain Exports Via Danube Route

Senior U.S. State Department Official Says U.S. Exploring Alternative Routes For Ukrainian Grain Exports, Most Prominently Via The Danube

- Reuters Citing AK&nbsp;Party Spokesman

Turkey's Erdogan To Visit Russia's Sochi Soon; Turkey Hopes There Will Be Developments Regarding Grain Deal After Erdogan's Sochi Visit

The Jan 10 USDA Report was a bullish surprise – lowering corn yield from 183.1 to 179.3 and carryout from 1.738 to 1.541.

AgMaster Report - Friday, Jan. 24

Commodity markets were unable to escape the sell-off that was seen in equities, while the threat of tariffs will not be helping sentiment.

The Commodities Feed: Risk-Off Move

The richest and cheapest volatility global assets according to JPMorgan

March Beans after an impressive $1.20 rally since harvest has corrected about 30 cents due to the aforementioned factors

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