L'intérêt à découvert pour United States Oil Fund donne aux investisseurs une idée du degré auquel les investisseurs parient sur la baisse de l'action de United States Oil Fund. Les données sur l'intérêt à découvert sont mises à jour toutes les deux semaines.

United States Oil Fund (ARCA:USO), Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

USCF Investments

The investment aims to track the daily percentage changes in its shares’ per share NAV, mirroring the daily percentage changes in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. This alignment is measured by the daily shifts in the price of a specified short-term futures contract on light, sweet crude oil known as the “Benchmark Oil Futures Contract,” along with the interest earned on USO’s collateral holdings, after deducting USO’s expenses. USO primarily invests in futures contracts for various fuels, including light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.

United States Oil Fund LP *

United States Oil Fund

ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 24, 2037

US OIL & GAS PLC S/ADR by U.S. Oil & Gas PLC

U S Oil & Gas PLC

Defiance Oil Enhanced Options Income ETF

UNITED STATES OIL ETF

<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/09/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-call-with-prime-minister-netanyahu-of-israel-9/">https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/09/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-call-with-prime-minister-netanyahu-of-israel-9/</a>
President Biden spoke this morning with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. &nbsp;Vice President Harris joined the call. &nbsp;The President affirmed his ironclad commitment to Israel's security.&nbsp; He condemned unequivocally Iran's ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1st. &nbsp;On Lebanon, the President emphasized the need for a diplomatic arrangement to safely return both Lebanese and Israeli civilians to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line.&nbsp; The President affirmed Israel's right to protect its citizens from Hezbollah, which has fired thousands of missiles and rockets into Israel over the past year alone, while emphasizing the need to minimize harm to civilians, in particular in the densely populated areas of Beirut.&nbsp; On Gaza, the leaders discussed the urgent need to renew diplomacy to release the hostages held by Hamas. &nbsp;The President also discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the imperative to restore access to the north, including by reinvigorating the corridor from Jordan immediately.&nbsp; They agreed to remain in close contact over the coming days both directly and through their national security teams.&nbsp;

Macro Economic Events

News

Politics

Global

Economics

General

iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market Index Fund

ISRA

President Biden Reaffirmed The United States' Full Support For Israel's Right To Defend Itself Against Iran And Its Allied Groups; Affirmed Israel's Right To Protect Its Citizens From Hezbollah

Oil prices, as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), fell over 1% on Wednesday, bringing the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-oil-stocks">price per barrel down to $73. </a>
This extends a 4% drop from Tuesday, driven by growing concerns over weaker demand from China, the world's second-largest oil consumer after the country withheld the more aggressive fiscal stimulus that analysts anticipated following a slew of monetary easing measures.
While geopolitical tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, Israel has yet to retaliate against Iran following last week&#8217;s attack that involved over 180 ballistic missiles.
The situation remains volatile, with President Joe Biden speaking Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of an Israeli Cabinet vote on a possible response, according to U.S. and Israeli officials, cited by NBC News.
Last Friday, Biden hinted that, in Israel's position, he would consider alternatives to striking Iran's oil fields and expressed opposition to Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear sites.
Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that the attack on Iran will be deadly, precise and surprising. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Iranian Warning To Gulf States</h1>
Meanwhile, Iran has issued a stark warning to Gulf Arab states, advising them that allowing their airspace or military bases to be used by Israel for strikes against Iran is &#8220;unacceptable&#8221; and would trigger a strong response. 
&#8220;Any action by a Persian Gulf country against Tehran will be regarded as an action taken by the entire group, and Tehran will respond accordingly,&#8221; a senior Iranian official told Reuters.
Tensions also escalated in Lebanon as Israel expanded its ground offensive against Hezbollah, with Israeli airstrikes killing two successors to the terrorist group's leader on Tuesday.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Oil Prices Could Surge Up To $20 If Iran's Facilities Are Hit</h1>
&#8220;While the development of the conflict remains uncertain, we see $10-$20/bbl of upside to Brent at the peak in the case of disruptions in Iranian production,&#8221; wrote Goldman Sachs&#8217; analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby in a note published Wednesday.
Grigsby also highlighted satellite data from Kpler, which suggests that Iran's crude exports have dropped to zero this week. She did acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding this satellite-based information.
U.S. intelligence and defense officials are reportedly pressuring Israeli colleagues to favor covert strikes against assets linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ayatollah Khamenei, rather than launching broader missile strikes on oil facilities. 
This strategy, according to a senior U.S. defense official cited by <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-sent-tankers-back-key-oil-facility-sign-it-believes-israeli-attack-was-averted">Middle East Eye</a>, aims to minimize escalation while still targeting key figures in Iran's leadership.
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41255250/banks-gear-up-for-earnings-season-15-top-stock-picks-including-citigroup-morgan-stanley-and-truist">Banks Gear Up For Earnings Season: 15 Top Stock Picks Including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, And Truist</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Asia

Emerging Markets

Specialty ETFs

Commodities

ETFs

Oil Dips To $73 As China Withholds Stimulus, Biden Attempts To Contain Netanyahu Over Israel's Attack On Iran

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyOWA547D2w" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyOWA547D2w">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyOWA547D2w</a>

Macro Notification

White House Says Biden Call With Israel's Netanyahu Was Direct And Productive; Says Call Lasted 30 Minutes; Discussions On The Iran Attack Continued

The S&amp;P 500 climbed 0.5% during morning trading in New York, reaching a new all-time high by surpassing the 5,770 level, previously touched in late September.
The rally was fueled by a continued decline in oil prices, amid a lack of further escalation in the Middle East conflict and disappointing news regarding <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41227136/chinese-stocks-plunge-as-stimulus-hopes-fade-hong-kong-posts-worst-daily-decline-si">fiscal stimulus from China.</a>
Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next moves, with the minutes from the September meeting set to be released at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Eight of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 11 sectors traded in positive territory, with utilities, materials and real estate being the only laggards. Technology and financials led the charge.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average mirrored the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s performance, now trading within 1% of its record high, while small caps outperformed. 
Oil prices, tracked by the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), dropped another 1%, extending the sharp 5% selloff from Tuesday. The decline in crude prices provided relief to industries heavily reliant on fuel expenses, particularly airlines and cruise operators.
Cruise line stocks rallied as a result, with Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>), Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>), and Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>) soaring 9.7%, 6.7%, and 4.4%, respectively.
Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year yield rising by three basis points to 4.79%. Precious metals softened slightly, with gold eyeing its seventh consecutive session in the red.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remained stable, hovering around $62,000.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices </td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,211.55</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,332.26</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,781.58</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,193.47</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 11:26 a.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent100924&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> data: 
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.5% to $575.81.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.7% to $423.58.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) inched 0.4% higher to $491.40.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 0.7% to $219.17.</li>
<li>The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 0.7%. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) dropped 1.4% after the U.S. Department of Justice indicated on Tuesday it may seek a court order compelling the tech giant to divest key assets, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system. BMO Capital also lowered its price target for Alphabet from $222 to $215 per share.</li>
<li>Shares of Astera Labs, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALAB#NASDAQ">ALAB</a>) surged 16% to $61.31 after the company unveiled a new portfolio of fabric switches designed specifically for AI infrastructure at cloud scale. In addition, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating on the stock and raised its price target from $55 to $74, citing the potential growth from the new product line.</li>
<li>Shares of utilities Constellation Energy Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CEG#NASDAQ">CEG</a>), Vistra Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>) and NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NRG#NYSE">NRG</a>) tumbled 6.5%, 5.3% and 5%, respectively, marking the worst performers in the Russell 1000.</li>
<li>Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PFE#NYSE">PFE</a>) rallied over 4%, eyeing its strongest day since May, after Starboard Value acquired a $1 billion stake. </li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/10/41251483/september-inflation-preview-consumer-price-data-holds-the-key-to-feds-next-interest-rate-move">September Inflation Preview: Consumer Price Data Holds The Key To Fed&#8217;s Next Interest Rate Move</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Earnings

Sector ETFs

Econ #s

Federal Reserve

Tech

$BTC

ALAB

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

GOOGL

NCLH

S&P 500 Hits New All-Time High Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Lower Oil Prices Offer Relief: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-09_09h31_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Google Breakup?</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-google-breakup-nvidia-ai-summit-goog-mc-10092024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of GOOG stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>One of the concerns about big tech is that big tech has profited from monopolistic practices, and as such, the government will move against big tech. So far, these concerns have been limited to smart money. The momo crowd has been oblivious and aggressively buying big tech, running the stocks up higher and higher.  The reason is that the momo crowd does not do much analysis. The momo crowd is driven by momentum and hopium.</li>
<li>The news is that the Department of Justice (DOJ), in a court filing, has put the breakup of Google on the table.&nbsp; Previously, the judge had ruled that Google is a monopolist and established its monopoly with illegal practices.</li>
<li>The chart shows that there has not been much of a reaction to the news.</li>
<li>The chart shows that previously there was some downward reaction to the news that a judge ordered Google to open the app store to competition.</li>
<li>Google faces a separate lawsuit threatening the breakup of its online advertising business.</li>
<li>The chart shows that volume was low on the threat of a breakup and also on the order to open the app store. This indicates that so far the stock market does not believe the news will harm Google. This is for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>There is flawed analysis in the market that the sum of the parts is more than the current stock price. In The Arora Report analysis, the reason that the belief in the stock market is wrong is because the parts as separate companies will be restricted from continuing illegal monopolistic practices.</li>
<li>The election is only a few weeks away. The belief in the stock market is that both Trump and Harris will be friendly to big tech.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) stock has staged a strong move leading to and in response to its AI Summit. However, the resistance zone is around $140, only $6 away. If NVDA stock breaks above the resistance zone, it will be a big positive for the stock market, especially AI stocks. On the other hand, if this rally fails to break above the resistance zone, it will be a negative.</li>
<li>There are rumors of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah has publicly endorsed ceasefire efforts. This is leading to selling in oil, gold, and Treasuries.</li>
<li>FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
Stocks in China experienced another sell-off. More stimulus news is expected on Saturday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), and GOOG.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

Markets

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

Google Breakup On The Table, Nvidia AI Summit Moves The Stock But Resistance Ahead

President Biden Speaks With Israel's Netanyahu Amid Tensions With Iran

EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks A Draw Of 3.124M Vs A Draw Of 2.300M Est.; Draw Of 1.284M Prior

USA Crude Oil Inventories A Build Of 5.810M Vs A Build Of 2.000M Est.; Build Of 3.889M Prior

RDDT

Benzinga Market Summary: Chinese Stocks Continue Lower, Needham Raises Estimates On Reddit, Oil Pulls Back Further

Russian Deputy PM Novak Says Too Early To Assert If Global Market Is Ready To Digest Additional OPEC+ Oil Barrels In December; No Changes To OPEC+ Deal Are Currently Being Discussed; OPEC+ Will Later Decide On Dec.1 Summit Format

On Tuesday, October 8th, U.S. markets closed in green as investors bought into technology stocks, benefiting from a slight easing in Treasury yields, which reduced concerns about rising borrowing costs.
According to economic data, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August, below the expected 91.7. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $70.4 billion in August, the lowest in five months, from $78.9 billion in July.
Most S&amp;P sectors gained, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services, while the materials sector declined as metal prices fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.30% and closed at 42,080.37. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.97% at 5,751.13, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%, finishing the session at 18,182.92.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 1.01% at 39,299.50, led by gains in the Banking, Insurance and Finance &amp; Investment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.13% and ended the day at 8,187.40, led by gains in the IT, Telecoms Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was trading lower by 0.03% at 25,005.90, while the Nifty 500 was up 0.44% at 23,615.55.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite plunged 6.62% to close at 3,258.86, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 slid 7.05%, finishing the day at 3,955.98.</li>
<li>Chinese and Hong Kong stocks tumbled Wednesday as investors took profits from a recent rally, disappointed by the lack of new stimulus measures. Key indexes in China posted their largest daily losses since 2020, with property and tourism stocks among the biggest losers.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index dropped 1.38% to close at 20,637.24.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.02%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was up 0.11%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.12%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.52%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.88% at $74.19/bbl, and Brent was up 0.79% at $77.80/bbl.</li>
<li>Despite weak demand expectations, oil prices ticked higher, fueled by Middle East tensions and anticipation of China&#8217;s fiscal policy updates. Brent and WTI futures rebounded after a sharp decline as investors remained cautious about regional escalations and potential impacts on oil demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 1.13% at $2.702.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.03% at $2,636.05, Silver gained 0.99% to $30.913, and Copper slid 0.53% to $4.4330.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.18%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.08% to 102.62, the USD/JPY rose 0.32% to 148.66, and the USD/AUD gained 0.21% to 1.4848.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Eurozone

Futures

Forex

ADIV

AGOV

ASHR

BBEU

CQQQ

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

EEMA

FLAX

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

IEMG

IEUR

KraneShares Trust KraneShares S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF

KDIV

SPEM

USDU

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

China Markets Plunge, Europe Edges Higher, Crude Oil Maintains Premium After Selloff - Global Markets Today While Us Slept

USA API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A Build Of 10.900M Barrels Vs A Build Of 1.950M Barrels Est.; A Draw Of 1.458M Barrels Prior

Iran Warns Gulf States Against Allowing Airspace Use For Attacks, Calling It 'Unacceptable'; Iranian FM Abbas Araqchi Visits Gulf States For Talks As Gulf Nations Reassure Iran Of Neutrality In Any Tehran-Israel Conflict

- Reuters Citing Army Spokesperson&nbsp;

Israeli Military Issues New Evacuation Warning On Specific Buildings In Beirut's Southern Suburbs

Syrian Air Defences Intercept 'Hostile' Targets In Vicinity Of Syria's Damascus

<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-not-briefed-us-military-officials-plans-retaliation-iran-rcna174443" title="https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-not-briefed-us-military-officials-plans-retaliation-iran-rcna174443">https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-not-briefed-us-military-officials-plans-retaliation-iran-rcna174443</a>

'U.S. Officials Say They Do Not Believe Israel Has Made A Final Decision On The Specifics Of Its Response But Said It Has Been Narrowing And Finalizing Its Options With Additional Meetings Yesterday And Today; The Options That Remain Under Consideration Are Targeting Iranian Military And Intelligence Infrastructure, Air Defenses And Energy Facilities' - NBC News

Kinder Morgan Said Have Shut Down Our Pipelines That Are Part Of Central Florida Pipeline System; Shut Down All Terminals In Tampa, Florida Area

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Said Israel Has Taken Out Nasrallah's Successor

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-08_08h03_18.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Biggest Stock Moves Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-rising-yields-neutral-rate-tlt-mc-10082024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>TLT moves inverse to the yield. The higher the yield goes, the lower TLT falls.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move up in TLT in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.</li>
<li>The chart shows a breakout above the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed cut rates.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the spot on Arora call was made on the same day that the Fed cut interest rates. The Arora call was made in advance of the Fed announcement, giving investors more time to act. The Arora call was that yields were likely to rise on long bonds, sending TLT lower. The Arora call was a contrary call squarely going against the prevailing wisdom at that time. At that time, the following described the landscape.
<ul>
<li>Technically oriented investors were buying TLT because of the technical breakout.</li>
<li>Macro investors were buying TLT because of the rate cut. Going into the Fed meeting the consensus was still a 25 bps cut, even though the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut was gaining steam.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom in the market was that TLT would go up.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout failed, and TLT has experienced a significant drop since the Arora call.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TLT is now getting closer to the top support zone.</li>
<li>The down move in TLT is remarkable because during this time, the money has been flowing into the safety of long Treasury bonds due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the Middle East conflict escalation, TLT would have already fallen into the top support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TLT is oversold. An oversold ETF often bounces.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, unless the economic data changes or a war breaks out, or the Fed changes its course, any rally in TLT has a 70% probability of failing. The reason behind this prediction is that irrespective of who is elected, Trump or Harris, the government's borrowing and spending is going to go up. Higher borrowing means a larger supply of Treasuries.  A larger supply of Treasuries indicates a higher yield on long bonds. If the U.S. has a divided government after the election, the borrowing will be less than it will be if either party sweeps. In the event of a one party sweep, TLT can potentially fall to the bottom support zone.</li>
<li>Investors should also pay attention to the10 year Treasury yield.  The 10 year Treasury yield is important because it is the reference rate for computing appropriate PE ratios in most models. In general, the rule is higher interest rates mean lower PE ratios. There are two reasons for this:
<ul>
<li>When interest rates are higher, the value of future earnings discounted to present is lower.</li>
<li>When bonds start paying higher interest rates, they offer more competition to stocks.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The yield on 10 year Treasuries has risen from 3.68% on the day the Fed cut the interest rate to 4.031% as of this writing.</li>
<li>Contrary to expectations in the market, mortgage rates have also risen since the Fed rate cut.</li>
<li>Investors should also pay close attention to the neutral rate. The neutral rate is the Fed funds rate that is neither restrictive or expansionary.
<ul>
<li>In addition to the neutral rate, investors should also pay attention to the pace at which interest rates come down to the neutral rate.</li>
<li>The Fed is indicating that the neutral rate might be around 3.4% in 2025. Previously, the Fed was pointing to a long run neutral rate of 2.5%.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom in the market is that the neutral rate is in the range of 2.5% &#8211; 3.5%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Regarding the neutral rate, The Arora Report has another contrary call. Unless economic data substantially changes or geopolitical conditions substantially change, the likely neutral rate is higher than the market consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, the likely neutral rate is 3.25 &#8211; 4.25%. </li>
<li>The foregoing discussion on the long bond rate, 10 year rate, and neutral rate is very important because in view of The Arora Report analysis and contrary calls, earnings will have to be very robust for the stock market to advance from here and sustain at a higher level.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, implied volatility of options on popular individual stocks around earnings indicates that the biggest moves after earnings in recent years in individual stocks are ahead. This has two practical implications for investors:
<ul>
<li>This will provide more opportunities for prudent investors who are set up to systematically take advantage of volatility in a proven way instead of being afraid of volatility.</li>
<li>Some of the existing positions in portfolios may be hit hard. To balance it with stocks that move up significantly, it is important to make sure the portfolio is properly diversified.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, prior to the jobs report, the probability of a 50 bps cut after the next Fed meeting was about 30%. Now, the probability has dropped to 5%.</li>
<li>Based on The Arora Report proprietary sentiment indicator, sentiment in the stock market is very positive.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 at 6000 is the magnet for traders.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Based on The Arora Report's proprietary methodology, numerous short squeezes are taking place, adding to the upside moves in individual stocks.</li>
<li>There is renewed excitement in AI stocks. The main reason is that NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) AI Summit is taking place.</li>
<li>There is also buying ahead of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) analyst meeting about AI on October 10.&nbsp; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPE#NYSE">HPE</a>) will also highlight its progress on AI during its analyst day on October 10.</li>
<li>Adding to excitement in the stock market is the upcoming Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) robotaxi event on October 10.</li>
<li>Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on October 10. Headline CPI consensus is 0.1%.  Core CPI consensus is 0.2%.</li>
<li>Hurricane Milton is barreling towards Florida.&nbsp; Insurance stocks such as Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UVE#NYSE">UVE</a>), Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HRTG#NYSE">HRTG</a>), and HCI Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCI#NYSE">HCI</a>) are seeing selling pressure.&nbsp; Generator manufacturer Generac Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GNRC#NYSE">GNRC</a>) is seeing buying pressure, so are roofing stocks such as Beacon Roofing Supply Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BECN#NASDAQ">BECN</a>) and Owens Corning (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OC#NYSE">OC</a>).</li>
<li>Volatility index (VIX) continues to stay high on anxiety about the Middle East. VIX is elevated at 22 as of this writing.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. &nbsp; Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China Disappoints</h3>
We have been sharing with you day by day the epic rally in Chinese stocks and the reasons behind it. Today, at the beginning, hopes were high as Mainland China investors returned after a one week holiday.  Mainland benchmark stock index CSI 300 jumped 11% at the open but subsequently lost some of the gains, finishing up 5.9%.  In spite of the pullback, CSI 300 is up about 30% over the last month.
In Hong Kong, Hang Seng lost 9.41%. This is the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Stocks in Hong Kong were trading during the mainland holiday. The reason for the disappointment is that investors were counting on the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to offer concrete stimulus measures at a briefing. However, the chair of NDRC Zheng Shanjie did not offer new concrete stimulus steps. This disappointed traders.
As full disclosure, for those who understand the China risk, The Arora Report&#8217;s plan continues to be to buy Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) when they fall in the recently updated buy zones in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVDA, and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

BECN

GNRC

HRTG

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