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Tivic Health Systems (NASDAQ:TIVC) Stock, Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

Tivic Health Systems

Tivic Health Systems Inc is a health technology company focused on developing and commercializing non-invasive bioelectronic medicine. The company's platform-based technology activates the body's own healing mechanisms and can be programmed to treat various disease conditions. company's products provide a natural alternative to the standard synthetic chemical methods used by the pharmaceutical industry. ClearUP Sinus Relief, is a first commercial product of the company which is a patented handled device that uses ultra-low current electrical waves to relieve sinus pain and congestion symptoms that are prevalent in nasal allergies, sinus infections, chronic sinusitis, cold and flu and other disease conditions.

Tivic Health Systems, Inc. - Common stock

Tivic Health Systems Inc

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Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Gains Amid Ongoing Trade Volatility, Mar. Inflation Comes In Below Expectations, 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises

"I do not know of anybody who has done [market timing] successfully. I don't know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently" Jack Bogle, Founder Vanguard.
If you have read any of our blogs over the last several years, you would know that my firm, <a href="http://lcmcapital.com">LCM Capital Management</a>, despises my industry when it comes to predicting markets direction, economic activity or inflation and GDP growth or lack thereof.&nbsp; We always tell our clients to turn off the financial news networks and the talking heads since all they are doing is guessing and they typically guess wrong. We can't think of a better example than our present day.
Most everyone who invests has heard the following cliché', It's time in the market not timing the market. Our question is, do investors actually adhere to it? What about their brokers, advisors or CFP's?
We ask this simple question because based on what has happened to the stock market over the last month or even the last few weeks, aka since President Trump's tariffs announcement, it appears very few investors, besides my firm, seems to actually believe in this cliché'. Stocks had an unprecedented tumble. The S&amp;P 500 closed out the month of February at 5954. April 7th, it closed at 5062. That's approximately a 15% drop in a little over a month. Clearly people were selling. I intentionally used the word "people" since investors they are not.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Fast forward two days (an eternity, right?) April 9th and the S&amp;P 500 just had its single biggest day since 2008 jumping over 9.50%, in a single day! The cause? President Trump put a 90 day pause on many of his tariffs.
So now that this happened what should an investor do? If you sold on your own or were told to get out by your broker the question becomes, should or when do you get back in? The problem with trying to time the market is sure you may have gotten lucky and sold but now you have to get lucky again and know when to buy. One thing is for certain, most investors that were out probably missed this move today. And there was no reason to from our perspective. I say this with much certainty because according to an article on cnbc.com written by John Melloy and Hakyung Kim, Trump's pause declaration went out at 1:18 p.m. ET when the Dow was about 350 points higher for the day. Seconds later, the 30-stock index surged more than 2,000 points.  Read that again, seconds later the market moved over 5%. Now how many people got a call from their broker telling them to buy? It reminds me of when my kids were young and they would tell people that what their dad did for a living was make people "broker."
Watching your portfolio drop by 5 or 10 or 15% is not fun. I have yet to find anyone in my 37 years of managing money who likes losing money. But I am telling you that if you lived by the mantra of staying invested and not listening to the "experts" you'd be better off. Our clients certainly are.
These "experts" over the last few weeks and days have been warning investors of an impending recession or stagflation or something even worse. JP Morgan raised the odds of one to 60% on April 4th. Goldman Sachs raised the odds twice in a week and as of April 7th had a 45% probability of one, then today April 9th, according to the same website above, the following headline came out, Goldman forecast a recession then almost immediately rescinded it after Trump tariff pause. If this doesn't tell you everything you need to know about forecasting than nothing will. We mention this because whether or not a recession does actually materialize is just a guess and you should never invest on a guess. Remember when the Fed started its unprecedented rate hiking campaign back in 2021 and the yield curve went inverted, meaning short-term rates were higher than longer-term rates? Wall Street came out of the woodwork saying this always (90%+ of the time) leads to a recession. Well one never materialized. We can go on with plenty of examples of Wall St. and their awful predictions and we are sure not making one today but this market's volatility is not over and April 9th may or may not have been the bottom of this correction but what investors need to remember is the markets will always go up and down, sometimes violently, but if you stay invested to your risk tolerance and stay diversified throughout both stocks and bonds you can withstand any bout of market volatility and simply laugh the next time an "expert" tells you what will happen next.

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Time 'In' the Market: Do Investors Actually Adhere?

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains WR Berkley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WRB#NYSE">WRB</a>) with a Underweight and raises the price target from $52 to $62.

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Barclays Maintains Underweight on WR Berkley, Raises Price Target to $62

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Willis Towers Watson (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WTW#NASDAQ">WTW</a>) with a Underweight and raises the price target from $302 to $316.

Barclays Maintains Underweight on Willis Towers Watson, Raises Price Target to $316

Another busy stretch reminded the cannabis industry that momentum rarely moves in a straight line. 
Minnesota punted its adult‑use launch to at least 2026, while Germany's new coalition left legalization intact. In Latin America, Chile pushed a sweeping adult‑use bill even as Panama tightened medical rules and Italy stunned hemp operators with a sudden ban. 
Companies stayed active: SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ: SNDL) inked a 32‑store acquisition and started trading in Canada, MariMed Inc. (OTC: MRMD) elevated a longtime brand builder to chief commercial officer and Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) trimmed guidance after softer cannabis sales. 
Below is a recap of every headline that mattered.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Politics And Regulation</h2>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Rescheduling Could Drift Under Trump</h3>
Former DEA adviser Matt Lawrence told an Ohio State University forum that, without explicit White House backing, the DEA might "do essentially nothing at all," leaving the Schedule III proposal in limbo. Former HHS counsel Patricia Zettler added that new DEA nominee Terrance Cole's long agency tenure "doesn't bode particularly well for support of rescheduling," warning that the simplest outcome may be prolonged delay.
The discussion, reported by <a class="" href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/former-dea-and-hhs-officials-suggest-marijuana-rescheduling-could-be-delayed-indefinitely-if-trump-doesnt-proactively-support-it/">Marijuana Moment</a>, highlighted how politics—not science—will likely dictate the timetable. Speakers also noted that DEA could revive the process quickly if President Trump deems it a priority, but the administration's first‑year drug plan omitted any reference to cannabis reform.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Medicare And Medicaid Draw A Hard Line</h3>
The Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services finalized a rule clarifying that "alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis products" are ineligible as supplemental benefits in Medicare Advantage plans. CMS said it had fielded questions about covering medical marijuana but reiterated that cannabis remains illegal federally.
In the same notice—slated for the Federal Register on June 3—CMS specified that CBD products also fail the "primarily health related" test, effectively barring coverage. The policy details appear in the agency's rulemaking summary, also covered by <a class="" href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/medicare-and-medicaid-officials-finalize-rule-to-clarify-that-medical-marijuana-isnt-covered-by-federal-health-programs/">Marijuana Moment</a>.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Minnesota's Retail Clock Slips</h3>
Consultant Stefan Egan, who helped draft Minnesota's adult‑use law, told <a class="" href="https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/minnesota-marijuana-dispensaries-might-not-open-until-late-spring-2026/">KSTP‑TV</a> that absent final rules, licenses won't be issued before late spring 2026. Sen. Mark Koran projected another nine to twelve months for build‑outs and product testing, pushing first sales into late spring or early summer 2026.
Both sources warned that uncertainty hampers investment. The Office of Cannabis Management noted more than 1,000 qualified applicants stand ready once regulations land, but it offered no firm timeline.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Germany Keeps CanG in Place</h3>
Germany's new CDU/CSU‑SPD coalition will not roll back the 2024 legalization law. Instead, the government plans a "neutral evaluation" in autumn 2025.
The compromise came after Bavaria's CSU pushed for reinstating prohibition. Federal drug commissioner Burkhard Blienert called the existing framework "an important contribution to a more honest and decriminalized approach to drugs," urging patience until the review.
Read the full story on <a class="" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44716802/cannabis-stays-legal-in-germany-following-new-coalition-deal">Benzinga</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chile Advances Adult‑Use Bill</h3>
A cross‑party coalition introduced legislation allowing six‑plant home‑grows, 40‑gram public possession and nonprofit cultivation clubs. Lead sponsor Ana María Gazmuri said the proposal "allows us to catch up with international standards."
Civil‑society leaders told El Planteo the bill addresses organized crime by offering legal access. Presidential contender Vlado Mirosevic pledged to champion legalization if elected, calling prohibition a "failure of drug policy."
Read the full story on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/04/44743798/chile-moves-to-legalize-adult-use-cannabis-with-backing-from-presidential-candidate">Benzinga</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Panama Regulates, Italy Prohibits</h3>
Panama's Decree No. 6 broadens physician prescribing rights but bans vaporizers, a restriction reformer Carlos Ossa called illogical because "70% of patients use vaporizers." Production licenses remain pending, so the country still relies on imports.
Only a few days before that, Italy issued an emergency decree banning all hemp and CBD flowers. Trade group Canapa Sativa Italia warned the move threatens up to 30,000 jobs and violates EU precedent that CBD is not a narcotic.
Read the full story on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44747982/one-step-forward-one-step-back-panama-regulates-cannabis-italy-bans-it">Benzinga</a>.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Netherlands Launches Supply‑Chain Pilot</h3>
Ten municipalities—including Arnhem, Groningen and Tilburg—began requiring coffeeshops to stock only state‑licensed cannabis. Hashish will follow once supply stabilizes, officials told Dutch media. Shop owner Willem Vugs welcomed the phased roll‑out, saying growers need time to "produce the right quality and variety."
The four‑year experiment, detailed by Dutch News reporting, aims to replace the decades‑old "back‑door" model where sales are tolerated but large‑scale cultivation remains illegal.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Corporate And Market Moves</h2>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">SNDL Expands Retail Footprint And Lists On The CSE</h3>
SNDL Inc. agreed to buy 32 Cost Cannabis and T Cannabis stores from 1CM Inc. (CSE: EPIC) for C$32.2 million in cash, per the companies' joint release. CEO Zach George said the deal "aligns with our stated capital priorities" and boosts the network to 219 owned or franchised outlets.
The transaction—covering locations in Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan—generated C$53 million in revenue for 1CM's fiscal 2024. Closing is expected by Q3 2025, pending court and shareholder approval, after which 1CM plans to return "a substantial portion" of the proceeds to investors.
Two days after the acquisition announcement, SNDL began trading on the Canadian Securities Exchange under the same ticker. George said the move "creates optionality for shareholders" and positions the company to pursue growth with "greater agility."
The CSE listing allows investors to trade shares in Canadian dollars and fits the exchange's cannabis‑friendly framework, according to SNDL's statement.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">MariMed Names Chief Commercial Officer</h3>
MariMed Inc. promoted Ryan Crandall—co‑creator of Betty's Eddies Chews—to chief commercial officer. CEO Jon Levine credited Crandall with building "our innovative and trusted portfolio of brands."
Crandall, who joined MariMed in 2018, will oversee sales, marketing, product development and retail. He called the role "a fantastic journey" and pledged to strengthen MariMed's market position.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Scotts Miracle‑Gro Spins Off Hawthorne Collective</h3>
The Scotts Miracle‑Gro Company (NYSE: SMG) transferred its Hawthorne Collective investment arm to an independent partner in exchange for an interest‑bearing note. CEO Jim Hagedorn said the move reduces cannabis‑sector volatility and lets Scotts focus on core lawn and garden products.
The company retains an option to reacquire Hawthorne Collective if federal reform—such as rescheduling or the SAFER Banking Act—boosts sector prospects. Hagedorn noted that "four years of unkept promises" have hampered growth.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tilray Trims Revenue Outlook</h3>
Tilray Brands reported Q3 revenue of $185.8 million, down from $188.3 million a year earlier and below consensus. Cannabis sales fell to $54.3 million, while beverage alcohol rose slightly to $55.9 million.
Citing SKU rationalization and a shift of product from Canada to higher‑margin export markets, Tilray cut its FY‑2025 revenue target to $850–900 million from up to $1 billion, as detailed in <a class="" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44685827/tilray-brands-reports-lower-cannabis-sales-in-q3-trims-2025-revenue-outlook">Benzinga</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Forecasts</h2>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Whitney Economics Slashes U.S. Sales Projections</h3>
Data firm Whitney Economics reduced its 2025–2030 U.S. retail forecast by $21.1 billion, blaming oversupply, high taxes and hemp‑derived substitutes. Founder Beau Whitney said, "Lower prices, lower participation and more substitutes will result in lower revenues."
California took the biggest hit, with a $606 million downgrade for 2025. New York and Maryland were bright spots, reflecting faster‑growing new markets. 
Read the full story on <a class="" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44720279/is-legal-weed-in-trouble-analyst-says-taxes-oversupply-and-hemp-threat-drove-a-21b-cut-in-sales-estimates">Benzinga</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Science, Education &amp; Events</h2>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Avicanna Calls Clinicians To Toronto</h3>
Avicanna Inc. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVCNF#OTC">AVCNF</a>) (TSX: AVCN) will host its fifth medical symposium—"From Emerging Evidence to Clinical Practice"—on June 6 at Toronto's MaRS Discovery District. Executive VP Dr. Karolina Urban said the gathering aims to "enhance our collective understanding of cannabinoid‑based medicines."
Speakers include researchers from Washington State, Johns Hopkins and the University of British Columbia, covering topics from CBG's therapeutic potential to opioid–cannabinoid interactions. Healthcare professionals can register or submit poster abstracts at <a class="" href="https://www.avicanna.com/symposium">avicanna.com/symposium</a>.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Argentina Explores Cannabis Tourism And Chemo Pain Relief</h3>
Mendoza passed a law creating a provincial cannabis registry, while entrepreneur Gonzalo Llamas Bianchetti's Proyecto Vallecitos seeks to revive an abandoned ski town with hemp‑based eco‑lodging and cultivation. Provincial health leader Daniel Llaver said the registry focuses on patient access and industry compliance.
Separately, a three‑year preclinical study by CONICET and Universidad Austral found a 1:1 CBD‑THC oral blend prevented chemotherapy‑induced neuropathic pain in rats without added toxicity. Both stories were detailed in <a class="" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44745709/from-malbec-to-marijuana-argentinas-provincial-push-fuels-cannabis-tourism-science-and-policy">Benzinga</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recommended Reads Of The Week</h2>
<ul>
<li><a class="" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44720917/whos-blocking-cannabis-reform-in-the-senate-marijuana-policy-remains-a-dividing-line-between-democrats-and-republicans">Who's Blocking Cannabis Reform in the Senate?</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/04/44752007/latino-entrepreneurs-are-thriving-in-nycs-cannabis-market-heres-the-proof">Latino Entrepreneurs Are Thriving in NYC's Cannabis Market—Here's the Proof</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2025/04/08/ice-t-says-he-doesnt-get-high-so-why-did-he-open-a-cannabis-dispensary-with-a-playboy-playmate/">Ice‑T Says He Doesn't Get High—So Why Did He Open a Cannabis Dispensary With a Playboy Playmate?</a></li>
</ul>
Check back next week for a new recap of what&#8217;s going on in the most exciting industry in the world. Until then, stay high(drated).

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The Week In Cannabis: Delays, Decrees And Deals Reshape The Global Playbook

Based on the Phase 3 CheckMate-9DW trial, Opdivo plus Yervoy demonstrated a statistically significant overall survival benefit compared to investigator's choice of lenvatinib or sorafenib1
In the trial, 38% of patients were still alive at 3 years with this dual immunotherapy vs. 24% with the comparator arm1
<a href="https://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlink&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bms.com%2F&amp;esheet=54232125&amp;newsitemid=20250401202312&amp;lan=en-US&amp;anchor=Bristol+Myers+Squibb&amp;index=1&amp;md5=20eae49edc15fde8c3534a6ef92b3f6d">Bristol Myers Squibb</a> (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMY#NYSE">BMY</a>) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Opdivo&#xAE;(nivolumab) plus Yervoy&#xAE; (ipilimumab) as a first-line treatment for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common primary liver cancer.1,2 This approval is based on the results from the global Phase 3 randomized, open-label CheckMate-9DW trial evaluating the combination of Opdivo plus Yervoy compared to investigator's choice of tyrosine kinase inhibitor monotherapy (lenvatinib or sorafenib) in patients with unresectable or metastatic HCC who have not received prior systemic therapy.1 In the trial, Opdivo plus Yervoy demonstrated statistically significant overall survival (OS) and overall response rate (ORR) vs the comparator arm.1 It is the only trial supporting an FDA approval to show superior results against this comparator arm.

FDA Approves Bristol Myers Squibb's Opdivo plus Yervoy as First-Line Treatment for Unresectable or Metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Voya Financial (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOYA#NYSE">VOYA</a>) with a Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $75 to $66.

VOYA

Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Voya Financial, Lowers Price Target to $66

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Unum Gr (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNM#NYSE">UNM</a>) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $85 to $89.

Barclays Maintains Overweight on Unum Gr, Raises Price Target to $89

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Travelers Companies (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRV#NYSE">TRV</a>) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $287 to $280.

Barclays Maintains Overweight on Travelers Companies, Lowers Price Target to $280

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Sun Life Financial (TSX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLF#TSX">SLF</a>) with a Equal-Weight and raises the price target from C$85 to C$87.

TSX:SLF

Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Sun Life Financial, Raises Price Target to C$87

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Skyward Specialty (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SKWD#NASDAQ">SKWD</a>) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $63 to $64.

SKWD

Barclays Maintains Overweight on Skyward Specialty, Raises Price Target to $64

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Ryan Specialty Hldgs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RYAN#NYSE">RYAN</a>) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $88 to $83.

RYAN

Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ryan Specialty Hldgs, Lowers Price Target to $83

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains RenaissanceRe Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RNR#NYSE">RNR</a>) with a Underweight and lowers the price target from $234 to $231.

Barclays Maintains Underweight on RenaissanceRe Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $231

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Prudential Financial (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PRU#NYSE">PRU</a>) with a Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $134 to $106.

Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Prudential Financial, Lowers Price Target to $106

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) received an upgrade from UBS from Neutral to Buy, setting a 12-month price target of $60 per share. The bank cited a significantly more favorable <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">gold market outlook</a> and the company's improved capital return potential following strategic divestments.
UBS sees gold trading at $3,500 per ounce in 2026, up 23% from its prior estimates. The bank says the macro environment closely mirrors previous periods of financial turmoil, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, when gold outperformed following initial selling pressure. Thus, UBS sees gold as increasingly attractive in a world of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, has underperformed the spot price and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) by roughly 40% over the past five years, leading to a valuation discount.
UBS sees 2025 production guidance of 5.6 million ounces as conservative and believes improving execution could positively surprise the market. The bank's analysts highlighted the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/asset-sales/25/01/43250305/newmont-completes-425-million-asset-sale-focuses-on-british-columbia-growth">post-Newcrest merger divestment plan</a>, which is expected to generate $3.2 billion in cash by Q2 2025.
UBS estimates that $3 billion will be returned to shareholders via buybacks in 2025, creating a compelling high single-digit distribution yield, particularly as the company moves below its $5 billion net debt target in the first half of 2025.
However, operational challenges remain. Newmont has missed production and cost guidance for five consecutive years and its sprawling portfolio across nine countries adds complexity.
Although welcoming Newmont's focus on top assets, UBS sees the "rightsized" gold miners producing 1-2 million ounces annually with 3-5 Tier 1 assets and 1-2 growth projects in the current environment. Newmont's 7.5 million ounces over 11 assets far exceed that, as its efficient management and sustained reserve growth become increasingly complex.
Still, UBS sees strong free cash flow (10% yield in 2026) and potential for additional projects such as Red Chris in British Columbia, although large-scale capex is more likely in 2027–2028. While Newmont has a mixed operational track record, the bank argues that modest improvements in costs or production—if achieved—would represent positive surprises, given conservative market assumptions.
Price Watch: As of 3 PM ET, Newmont was the best-performing S&amp;P 500 stock, rising 9% to $55.53.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44771388/why-is-gold-outperforming-bitcoin">Why Is Gold Outperforming Bitcoin?</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Newmont Soars With A New $60 Price Target, Leads S&P 500 Higher

Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Progressive (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGR#NYSE">PGR</a>) with a Equal-Weight and raises the price target from $285 to $297.

Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Progressive, Raises Price Target to $297

It's a terrifying time to be a market maker these days. Recently, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged to 50.4, its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44764554/consumer-sentiment-crashes-to-3-year-lows-as-inflation-expectations-spike-to-1981-highs">lowest reading since June 2022</a>. It also represents a steep drop from March's reading of 57 points. Worrying investors is that the figure missed economists' forecast of 54.5 by a significant margin. Naturally, this news item carries significant — and negative — implications for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
Adding to the dour environment is the discouraging context behind the velocity decline. &#8220;Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March,&#8221; said Joanne Hsu, director of the Survey of Consumers at the University of Michigan. &#8220;This decline was, like last month&#8217;s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation.&#8221;
Hsu told Bloomberg TV that the deteriorating economic outlook cut across the political spectrum for two months. At the same time, inflation expectations are rising, for both the short and long term. Subsequently, the projection of fading consumer sentiment does little to bolster confidence in Amazon.
Nevertheless, market makers cannot just hedge for a potential downturn. As investors saw during the midweek session's remarkable turnaround following President Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/04/44725578/technology-stocks-outperform-after-trumps-tariff-pause-microchip-technology-amd-lead-sector-higher">90-day pause on tariffs</a> for select countries, anything can happen under the current administration.
Plus, it's worth pointing out that, as of this writing, Amazon&#8217;s stock is down about 17% on a year-to-date basis. Those providing liquidity for derivative contracts must also hedge for the possibility of discount buying. Again, it's a terrifying time to be a market maker.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mispriced Amazon Stock Options A Bright Spot For Speculators?</h2>
As the saying goes, one person's trash is another person's treasure. When it comes to Amazon options, the market makers' dreadful duties to provide liquidity in this equities cycle can open doors for opportunistic speculators waiting to pounce on a mistake. And there just might be one in favor of the risk-taker.
Under ordinary circumstances, pessimistic traders might buy a multi-leg options strategy known as the bear put spread. These vertical spreads — so called because the strike-price difference between the underlying long and short legs is stacked vertically (and thus for the same expiration date) — are net debit-based transactions. Simply stated, the trader pays a debit to speculate that a specific event will materialize (i.e. the target stock will fall).
On the other end of a buyer of a vertical spread is, of course, the spread's seller. Selling a credit spread represents a net credit-based transaction. Specifically, the position starts from a cash influx position. The seller receives the premium that the debit buyer pays, gambling that the clock will run out on the buyer before the debit trade becomes profitable.
For the seller, the premium received — that is, the amount of the cash influx — can be viewed as the safety margin or "credit margin." Essentially, it's the amount that the trade can move against the seller and still be profitable. Once the margin is exceeded, though, the debit buyer is now in the money. Under this scenario, the rising deficit to the margin reflects the liability of a blown-up credit spread.
What makes certain Amazon stock put spreads so compelling at this hour is that the aforementioned credit margin is on the debit side; that is, time decay (theta) favors the buyer. When risk modeling goes haywire in an attempt to accommodate all circumstances, unusual pricing dynamics may materialize. This may be what's happening right now with Amazon put options.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Getting Spotted Free Odds</h2>
Speculators looking to profit from the price modeling chaos may consider the bear put spreads expiring April 17 with a short leg strike price of $185. Specifically, the 190/185 bear spread looks enticing for speculators. This transaction involves buying the $190 put (at a time-of-writing ask of $935) and simultaneously selling the $185 put (at a bid of $625).
Subsequently, the proceeds from the short put partially offset the debit paid for the long put, resulting in a net debit paid of $310. Should Amazon fall to or below the short strike price of $185 at expiration, the trader collects the maximum reward of $190, representing a payout of over 61%.
Amazon shares in the open market were trading at a lower price than the short strike target. In other words, the trade is already in the money for the debit buyer on paper. Once time passes and if the situation stays as is, the risk taker wins.
What makes Amazon so compelling as a play on pricing mismatches is the relatively low <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/">beta</a> of 1.39. This is not a security that will statistically react too strongly in either direction.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-868601" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>
Speaking of statistics, the chances that on any given week Amazon would rise is around 53% to 54%. That&#8217;s not much of an advantage for bulls. However, market makers could be hedging for the momentum-riding tendencies of Amazon, which could be attempting to bounce back from the $170 lows. Then again, the momentum argument is also risky considering how few one-week returns exceeding 10% there have been, resulting in data distortion.
The thing to remember is that as the above bear put spread stands, the wager isn't necessarily that the stock will fall (because it's already below the profitability threshold for bears on paper). 
Rather, it's that Amazon won't materially rise from here.
In that context, the above put spread appears mispriced in favor of the debit buyer.
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44772840/analysts-warn-of-choppy-tech-outlook-despite-inflation-relief">Inflation Might Be Easing But Tech Outlook Still Choppy, Analysts Warn</a></li>
</ul>
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AMZN

Options Corner: Wall Street's Risk Modeling Nightmare Creates Massive Opportunities In Amazon Put Spreads

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