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Wall Street faced a murky morning on Thursday as fresh data revealed a jump in wholesale prices alongside a sharp rise in jobless claims. These conflicting signals rattled investors, casting doubt on the trajectory of the economy and the Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Reserve&#8217;s interest rate strategy.</a>
The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – fell by 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 – tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) – dropped 0.4%. Small caps fared worse, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) shedding 0.9%. 
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – strengthened after an initial dip.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wholesale Inflation Soars: PPI Hits 3%, Highest Since February 2023</h3>
The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 3% year-over-year in November, the steepest increase since February 2023. This marked a jump from October&#8217;s revised 2.6% and exceeded economists&#8217; forecasts of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 0.4%, doubling market expectations.
Core PPI inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.2% for the month (meeting estimates) and hit 3.4% annually.
These numbers come on the heels of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase, as expected.
Six out of the last seven PPI inflation reports have been revised higher, as The Kobeissi Letter highlighted on social media X 
"CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation are all officially back on the rise in the United States. What is happening here?"
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">BREAKING: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised October PPI inflation HIGHER, from 2.4% to 2.6%. Also, Core PPI inflation for October has been revised HIGHER from 3.1% to 3.4%. This means that 6 out of the last 7 PPI inflation reports have now been revised higher. With… <a href="https://t.co/hOiCV1Cy8u">pic.twitter.com/hOiCV1Cy8u</a>
&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1867202075102204303?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jobless Claims Climb</h3>
Adding to the turbulence, initial jobless claims jumped by 17,000 last week to 242,000, smashing expectations of 220,000. This marks the sharpest increase since October. Continuing claims, which measure people still receiving unemployment benefits, climbed to 1.886 million, nearing the three-year high of 1.908 million recorded last month.
Jobless claims rose significantly in states like California, up by 14,800, Texas, up by 9,500, and New York, up by 9,200.
This outcome may challenge the idea that the U.S. labor market remains tight. 
As highlighted by Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, continuing claims for unemployment insurance are now running slightly above levels seen in 2018-2019.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Reactions: What&#8217;s Next For The Fed? </h3>
&#8220;Look for these numbers to fuel something I&#8217;ve been posting about for a while: the likelihood of relatively sticky inflation, and, associated with that, the choice that the Fed will face in its policy deliberation on the &#8220;last mile&#8221; to its inflation target of 2%," economist Mohamed El Erian wrote on X. 
Clark Bellin, president of Bellwether Wealth, said, "While Thursday&#8217;s PPI was stronger-than-expected, we believe the Federal Reserve will still proceed with its expected 25 basis-point rate cut in December."
Yet, persistent inflation and a weakening labor market may limit the Fed&#8217;s flexibility in 2025. "The trajectory for interest rates remains uncertain," Bellin added.
Bank of America&#8217;s economist Stephen Juneau offered a more tempered view, stating: "We expect core PCE to rise by 0.1% m/m in November, with risk of rounding up to 0.2%. This would leave the y/y rate at 2.8%."
&#8220;This would be welcome news for the Fed after core PCE rose by 0.3% m/m in October and September,&#8221; he added. 
Bank of America expects the Fed to cut in December and then two more times next year in March and June for a terminal of 3.75%-4.00%.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42464081/trump-wins-time-person-of-year-rings-nyse-opening-bell-highlights-growth-ahead-the-economy-i-believe-is-going-to-be-very-strong">Trump Rings NYSE Opening Bell, Says Economy &#8216;Is Going To Be Very Strong&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
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Macro Economic Events

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Econ #s

Economics

Federal Reserve

ETFs

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Stocks Fall As Producer Inflation Spikes, Jobless Claims Jump: 'What Is Happening Here?'

WIIM

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

Major indexes are lower following worse-than-expected inflation data.

Shortly after ringing the New York Stock Exchange <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42464081/trump-wins-time-person-of-year-rings-nyse-opening-bell-highlights-growth-ahead-the-economy-i-believe-is-going-to-be-very-strong">opening bell Thursday</a>, Donald Trump shared his thoughts on the stock market, crypto, AI and more during an impromptu interview with CNBC host Jim Cramer.
"I think you're going to see some very good days ahead," Trump <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/watch-the-full-video-of-donald-trump-talking-with-jim-cramer-at-nyse.html">told</a> Cramer.
Trump&#8217;s appearance at the NYSE coincided with his being <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/24/12/42450651/donald-trump-to-be-named-time-person-of-the-year-beating-out-harris-musk-middleton-netanyahu-report">named Time Person of the Year</a> Thursday for the second time — the first being in 2016. 
Regarding his first steps as president in 2025, Trump said, &#8220;We have to conclude a couple of bad wars,&#8221; seemingly referring to the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, as well as Israel and Hamas. 
Trump On Crypto: President-elect Trump also addressed the potential for a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) strategic reserve. "We're going to do something great with crypto," he added.
Trump emphasized that the U.S. must be a &#8220;leader&#8221; in cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence. 
A portion of his commentary was also on the U.S. engaging Chinese President Xi Jinping. 
"I think we're going to do very well all around,&#8221; he said.
Did You Know?
<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent121124">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
What's Next: Trump said the U.S. has been abused as a country both economically and militarily, without citing specifics.
"We just can't let that happen," Trump said.
Thursday's bell ringing ceremony saw many business leaders and announced picks for Trump's cabinet in attendance. Cramer pointed out that Tesla CEO Elon Musk was not there.
Trump didn't share a reason why Musk wasn't present. Instead, he praised the billionaire for being a "great guy,&#8221; citing how his <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/24/12/42444955/elon-musk-first-person-worth-400-billion-as-tesla-stock-hits-new-all-time-highs-how-2024-election-helped-could-lead-to-future-gains">stock has done well </a>since the 2024 election.
The president-elect said he wants everyone to do well, including Musk and other billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos.
Trump said Zuckerberg has already "been over to see me" and shared that he is meeting with Bezos next week.
"We want them to do well," Trump said.
Cramer echoed former President Ronald Reagan who famously <a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-brokers-and-staff-new-york-stock-exchange-new-york-new-york">said </a>it was time to put the bear into hibernation and let the bull run when he appeared at the NYSE in 1985. Reagan referred to a bull market where stocks go higher versus a bear market where stocks go lower.
"Sounds perfect,&#8221; Trump responded to the analogy. &#8220;I can't do any better than that.&#8221;
Price Action: 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500, trades at $606.12 Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $464.12 to $609.07. The ETF is up 28.2% year-to-date.
Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) shares are up 2% to $36.86 on Thursday. The media company was co-founded by Trump and owns the Truth Social platform where Trump actively posts.
Bitcoin trades at $101,413.83 Thursday, up 1% over the last 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency recently surpassed the $100,000 level — one of several all-time highs since Trump won the 2024 election.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41798981/jim-cramer-calls-trumps-return-to-white-house-a-huge-win-for-the-stock-market">Jim Cramer Calls Trump&#8217;s Return To White House A &#8216;Huge Win For The Stock Market&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Courtesy of the New York Stock Exchange

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

Politics

$BTC

Trump Talks Stocks, Bitcoin, AI, Economy With Jim Cramer: 'You're Going To See Some Very Good Days Ahead'

Good Morning Traders! In today&#8217;s Market Clubhouse Morning Memo, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
Our proprietary formula, exclusive to Market Clubhouse, dictates these price levels. This dynamic equation takes into account price, volume, and options flow. These levels are updated every day and shared with all Clubhouse Members, prior to the opening of the market.
We recommend closely monitoring these stocks, and be prepared to leverage potential breakouts or reversals. As always, stay alert and ready to adjust your tactics based on the market&#8217;s pulse to optimize your trading gains. Now, let&#8217;s dive into the stock analysis:
SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)
SPY is currently trading near our key level of 606.34. For bullish momentum to sustain, we'd like to see buyers push the price to 607.55 and hold this level as support. If 607.55 holds steady, we anticipate further buying pressure could propel the price toward 608.35. Continued bullish action may test the next resistance at 609.33, with 610.63 as the high bull target for the session.
On the flip side, if 606.34 fails to act as support, bears may aim to test the 605.41 level. A break below 605.41 could invite selling pressure, targeting 604.45. If sellers dominate and push lower, 603.38 becomes the next key support. In the case of a strong selloff, the low bear target for today is 602.37.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)
The QQQ is auctioning around 528.44, our critical level for today. A firm hold above 528.44 could trigger bullish activity, aiming to reclaim 530.70 as a new support zone. With buying strength intact, we expect the price to climb toward 532.52. If the uptrend remains strong, bulls might look to test 533.70, with a potential move to the high bull target of 535.30.
However, if the 528.44 level shows weakness, bears may seize the opportunity to drive the price lower to 527.03. A breakdown below this level could see selling intensify toward 525.19. Persistent selling pressure might further target 523.91, with a drop to 522.57 marking the session's low bear target.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)
Apple is trading near 246.72, a pivotal level for the day. A bullish stance requires holding 246.72 as support, which could enable a move to 248.12. Sustained upward momentum may bring 249.04 into focus, potentially setting up a test of 250.39, our high bull target for the session.
Should 246.72 fail as a support, we expect bears to press lower to 245.58. If selling persists, 244.45 becomes the next likely target. Continued weakness could lead to a test of 243.57, with the low bear target for Apple today set at 242.83.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)
Microsoft is currently positioned around 446.33, a crucial level to monitor. Bulls need to secure a hold above 446.33 to establish support and push the price toward 448.18. If this level is reclaimed, we could see further upside action targeting 450.26, with the high bull target sitting at 453.02 for today's session.
Conversely, a failure at 446.33 may lead to bearish pressure driving the price to 444.95. A breach of this support could pave the way for a drop to 442.95. If sellers remain active, the next test is at 441.34, with the low bear target for Microsoft resting at 438.72.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) NVIDIA is trading near 138.55, a significant level for the bulls to defend. A move above this level could see buyers driving the price to 139.42 and solidifying this zone as support. With momentum, the price could ascend to 140.28, potentially testing 141.21, with 142.35 as the high bull target.
Should 138.55 give way, sellers are likely to target 137.94. Continued bearish activity may test 136.98, and if weakness prevails, we anticipate a further move to 135.64. The low bear target for NVIDIA today stands at 134.56.
Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>)
Alphabet is hovering around 196.25, a critical level for today's action. Bulls will aim to maintain 196.25 as support to drive the price toward 196.97. If momentum builds, we expect a climb to 197.79, marking the high bull target for the day.
If 196.25 breaks as support, bears may take the price down to 195.41. A breach here could prompt further selling to 194.34, with heavy downside pressure potentially targeting 193.14 as the low bear target.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>)
Meta is currently auctioning near 635.49, a key level for bullish continuation. Buyers will want to hold above 635.49 and aim for 642.59. If this level is surpassed, a strong rally may bring 646.48 into play, with the high bull target at 650.56.
On the downside, failure to hold 635.49 could result in selling pressure testing 629.88. If bears remain aggressive, we anticipate a move to 622.01. Sustained downside action could push Meta to a low bear target of 615.65.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)
Tesla is trading near 426.23, a level pivotal for today's bullish outlook. Buyers need to reclaim 431.50 and establish it as support to drive the price toward 437.95. Continued strength could lead to a breakout, with 448.48 and the high bull target of 454.90 in sight.
Should 426.23 fail to hold, bears could aim for 420.70. A breakdown of this level may bring 416.62 into focus, and if selling pressure persists, the price could test 413.10, today's low bear target.
Final Word:&nbsp; Today's trading session features a packed economic calendar, starting with the ECB Rate Decision at 8:15 AM ET. The release of November's PPI Final Demand, along with Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET, will be closely watched for signs of inflationary pressures and labor market conditions. At 8:45 AM ET, the ECB press conference is expected to provide further insights into European monetary policy, potentially setting the tone for global markets.
Later in the day, the U.S. Treasury will conduct a 4 and 8 week bill auction at 11:30 AM ET, followed by a 30 year bond auction at 1 PM ET. These events are critical for assessing investor sentiment toward U.S. debt and could influence broader market dynamics. Given the range of impactful releases, heightened volatility is anticipated. Traders should remain alert, adapt their strategies to the evolving market landscape, and prioritize risk management. Good luck, and trade wisely!
The Morning Memo is curated by RIPS, a pro trader with years of experience in equities, options, and futures trading. RIPS is at the heart of the exclusive Market Clubhouse community, offering his insights, expertise, and real-time mentorship.
Start your day with a live daily market analysis, a carefully selected watch list, early access to the Morning Memo, and exclusive Market Clubhouse price levels, providing precise support and resistance indicators. When you become a member of Market Clubhouse, you will gain early access to the Morning Memo, just like this one, every single day—hours before it&#8217;s published. You will also have access to a live stream with zero latency and screen sharing, enabling you to witness Rips executing his trades in real-time and sharing his exclusive trading plans, strategies, and live decision-making.
For a limited time during our special promotion, you can join RIPS and get a full access pass to Market Clubhouse for 7 full days for just $7. Check it out at <a href="https://marketclubhouse.club/7Days/" title="https://marketclubhouse.club/7Days/">https://marketclubhouse.club/7Days/</a> where you can trade live with him and tap into his wealth of knowledge and experience. You can also catch Rips on his live day trading streams every Monday-Friday at 8 am EST on the Market Clubhouse YouTube channel: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@MarketClubhouse" title="https://www.youtube.com/@MarketClubhouse">https://www.youtube.com/@MarketClubhouse</a>.

Technicals

Trading Ideas

AAPL

GOOGL

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

Market Clubhouse Morning Memo - December 12th, 2024 (Trade Strategy For SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META and TSLA)

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-12_07h55_05.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Inflation</h4>
An enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows the run up in TSLA stock.</li>
<li>The chart shows the Arora buy signal after the election.&nbsp; As of this writing, there is 50% gain in about five weeks from the Arora buy signal in TSLA.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows TSLA stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>The chart shows the nearest support zone.</li>
<li>TSLA stock has added $515B in value since Trump's election.&nbsp; The valuation of Tesla and SpaceX have been rising on the belief that Musk's close association with Trump will help his businesses. &nbsp; The rally in TSLA stock, along with the rising valuation of SpaceX, has made Elon Musk the first man ever to have a net worth of $400B.</li>
<li>The move yesterday in TSLA stock was initially triggered by General Motors Co&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) decision to stop development of robotaxis.&nbsp; The buying in TSLA stock on the GM news caused TSLA to breakout above the prior high.&nbsp; This brought in technically oriented buyers who buy the breakouts.&nbsp; The prior high was $414.49 on November 4, 2021.</li>
<li>After yesterday's sticky Consumer Price Index data that was not worse than expected, the market was certain the Fed will cut interest rates, so investors aggressively bought big tech stocks.&nbsp; Lower interest rates are good for big tech.</li>
<li>Producer Price Index (PPI) data came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reaction to PPI data is slight selling in stocks, bonds, and gold.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed is likely to ignore the hotter producer inflation data and cut interest rates next week.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 242K vs. 220K consensus. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed can use this data as an excuse to cut interest rates given the Fed's dual mandate.&nbsp;</li>
<li>To understand extreme positive sentiment right now, all a prudent investor needs to do is look at the valuation of Fartcoin (CRYPTO: FARTCOIN).&nbsp; Fartcoin is now worth $500M.&nbsp; What makes Fartcoin so valuable? It produces a digital fart sound on each transaction.</li>
<li>The positive sentiment is being enhanced this morning as President-elect Trump is going to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Switzerland</h4>
The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 50 bps, which was more than expected.&nbsp; This is the largest cut in nearly a decade.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h4>
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected.
Rate cuts in Europe influence the Fed to also cut interest rates.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is above $100,000.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AMZN

GOOG

Hot Inflation Data But Fed Likely To Ignore It, Musk Becomes First $400 Billion Man

Market Summary

General

ADBE

Benzinga Market Summary: PPI Comes In Above Expectations, Initial Jobless Claims Rise, Adobe Falls On Weak Guidance

News

USA Natural Gas Storage -190B Vs -175B Est.; -30B Prior

President-elect Donald Trump rang the New York Stock Exchange opening bell Thursday, marking a high-profile appearance after <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">winning the 2024 election.</a>
Trump also used the occasion to thank TIME magazine for naming him the 2024 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/24/12/42450651/donald-trump-to-be-named-time-person-of-the-year-beating-out-harris-musk-middleton-netanyahu-report">Person of the Year.</a>
What Happened: Flanked by key picks for his incoming White House administration, Trump rang the opening bell after expressing his gratitude to TIME magazine.
"TIME magazine, getting this honor for the second time, I think I like it this time better," Trump said.
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<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Donald Trump is TIME&#39;s Person of the Year <a href="https://t.co/IjP5W2otV5">https://t.co/IjP5W2otV5</a> <a href="https://t.co/CVHX9o0DB3">pic.twitter.com/CVHX9o0DB3</a>
&mdash; TIME (@TIME) <a href="https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1867187660814504285?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
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Trump said he had a great first presidential term, adding, "The media's tamed down a little bit, they're liking us much better now."
Speaking about the economy, Trump said he plans to incentivize companies to return to the United States and prioritize the production of products in the country.
"We're going to give tremendous incentive like no other country has. We're cutting your taxes."
Trump said the country is a leader in oil and gas and he is going to make the country "number one plus," promising to bring gas prices down.
"The economy, I believe, is going to be very strong."
Did You Know? 
<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
Why It's Important: Trump was surrounded by members of his campaign and also leading businessmen like CEOs of financial companies located near the NYSE.
"We see this [opening bell] every day, it's never been like this," CNBC anchor Carl Quintanilla said.
CNBC anchor Jim Cramer said this might be the first time that many business leaders were there for an opening bell ringing.
"This is very different," Cramer said.
Trump&#8217;s approach to the podium to ring the bell was met with loud applause, followed by chants of "USA."
Investors likely hope the stock market performs like it did during Trump's<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/10/41584466/these-10-stocks-were-the-best-s-p-500-performers-in-2017-when-trump-was-president-will-history-r" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;first years</a> in the White House.
The bell ringing comes with the S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), trading near all-time highs. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF is up over 6% from the opening price on election day (Nov. 5) with a price of $606.12 at the time of writing.
SPY, DJT Price Action: The SPY trades at $606.12 Thursday, versus a 52-week trading range of $464.12 to $609.07. The ETF is up 28.2% year-to-date.
Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) shares are up 2% to $36.86 on Thursday. The media company was co-founded by Trump and owns the Truth Social platform where Trump actively posts.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/11/41783357/how-did-s-p-500-sectors-perform-during-trumps-first-term-could-this-time-be-different">How Did S&amp;P 500 Stock Sectors Perform During Trump&#8217;s First Term? Could This Time Be Different?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy of NYSE Group.

Trump Rings NYSE Opening Bell, Says Economy 'Is Going To Be Very Strong'

Global

Live At NYSE, President-Elect Donald Trump Says "I Have A Strong Relationship With China", "Going To Be Cutting Taxes Further, Got It Down To 21% & Going To Bring Down Lower"

Live At NYSE, President-Elect Donald Trump Says "Elon Musk Has Alot Of Ideas, Is A Great Guy And Stocks Has Done Really Well", "We're Not Going To Be Abused Anymore, Going To Put America First"

At The NYSE, President-Elect Trump Says "Going To Incentivize The Country To Go Back To Work", "You're Going To See Some Very Good Days Ahead"

Live On CNBC, Bill Ackman Says "I Am Very Bullish On America, Kind Of Bearish On Europe", "Think All Sectors Will Benefit From Trump Presidency", "A Successful America Is Good For The World"

USA Core PPI (YoY) For November 3.4% Vs 3.2% Est.; 3.4% Prior

USA Initial Jobless Claims 242K Vs 221K Est. 225K Prior

USA Core PPI (MoM) For November 0.2% Vs 0.2% Est.; 0.3% Prior

US PPI (YoY) (Nov) +3% vs +2.6% Est.

USA Continuing Jobless Claims 1,886K Vs 1,880K Est.; 1,871K Prior

Macro Notification

US PPI (MoM) (Nov) +0.4% vs +0.2% Est.

U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday in premarket hours after hitting fresh highs on Wednesday. The futures of all the four major indices were trading lower.
November inflation data was in line with analyst expectations, shooting up the probability of a further 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 98.6% versus 58.75% probability a month ago, according to <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool</a>. Federal Reserve officials are currently in a quiet period ahead of their December meeting.
Traders now await the producer price index data, which will be released later today. The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.30% and 4.18%, respectively
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Futures</td>
<td>Change (+/-)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>-0.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>-0.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>-0.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>-0.18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
In premarket trading on Wednesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.12% to $606.71 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) declined 0.20% to $528.87, according to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/">Benzinga Pro data</a>.
Cues From The Last Session
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November climbed 2.7% year-over-year, aligning with expectations. 1 Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, held steady at 3.3%.  
The Magnificent Seven's combined <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42445451/nasdaq-100-rallies-to-record-highs-magnificent-7-market-cap-tops-17-trillion-bitcoin-soars-to-100000-whats-driving-markets-wednesday">market cap hits $18.2 trillion,</a> with five giants reaching all-time highs on Wednesday. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAGS#NASDAQ">MAGS</a>), a closely watched benchmark for the group&#8217;s market performance, surged 3.03% on Wednesday, setting a new all-time high.
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAGS#NASDAQ">MAGS</a>) surged 3.03%, its best performance since early November. 
The broader market also participated in the rally. The S&amp;P 500 climbed 0.82%, nearing its all-time high. Small-cap stocks added 0.48%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.22% lower.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
<td>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq Composite</td>
<td>1.77%</td>
<td>20,034.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.82%</td>
<td>6,084.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>-0.22%</td>
<td>44,148.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>0.48%</td>
<td>2,394.16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42445451/nasdaq-100-rallies-to-record-highs-magnificent-7-market-cap-tops-17-trillion-bitcoin-soars-to-100000-whats-driving-markets-wednesday">Nasdaq 100 Rallies To Record Highs, Magnificent 7 Market Cap Tops $17 Trillion, Bitcoin Soars To $100,000: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Wednesday?</a>
Insights From Analysts
Despite the S&amp;P 500 Index nearing record highs on Wednesday, its breadth was skewed in the favour of the bears.
&#8220;117 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 made a new monthly low yesterday, the most since 139 on Halloween. 211 made a 10-day low, most since Sept 6,&#8221; said Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Group.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">117 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 made a new monthly low yesterday, the most since 139 on Halloween. 211 made a 10-day low, most since Sept 6. Not end of world stuff, but clearly some deterioration under the surface taking place.
&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1866927212479590411?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2024</a></blockquote>
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The breadth has been skewed for the last seven days. &#8220;Since 2010, only happened two other times. Aug &#8217;11 and Dec &#8217;18. Small sample size yes, but not the worst times for bulls going forward,&#8221; added Detrick.
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<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">7 consecutive days there have been more decliners than advancers on the S&amp;P 500. Since 2010, only happened two other times. Aug &#39;11 and Dec &#39;18. Small sample size yes, but not the worst times for bulls going forward.
&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1866929220540305836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2024</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
Talking about balancing growth amid policy shifts, Andrew Pease, the chief investment strategist at Russell Investments said, &#8220;Tax cuts and deregulation could provide a meaningful growth boost, particularly to domestic and cyclical sectors.&#8221;
&#8220;Given lower valuations and improving sentiment, we are more positive on U.S. small-cap equity than we have been in prior years. Large-cap dominance in both earnings and price appreciation will require a catalyst to shift returns in the small-cap direction,&#8221; he added.
Apart from small-caps, Pease in his note said that &#8220;growth managers targeting high-growth cyclical sectors like software, while value managers identify mergers and acquisitions potential in financials and healthcare. Core managers are balancing cyclical exposure and managing risks in rate-sensitive sectors.&#8221;
Citing rich valuations, Alex Chaloff, the chief investment officer at Bernstein Private Wealth Management said that they are still pro-equities.
&#8220;We&#8217;re optimistic on equities, think that valuations are a little bit rich in a pocket of the market, but there are some opportunities. In bonds, you can clip the coupon even if rates move higher from here, which we don&#8217;t think is our base case,&#8221; he said.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42453807/spacex-hits-350-billion-valuation-in-insider-share-sale-ceo-elon-musk-says-no-investors-wanted-to-sell-shares">SpaceX Hits $350 Billion Valuation In Insider Share Sale: CEO Elon Musk Says &#8216;No Investors Wanted To Sell Shares&#8217;</a>
Upcoming Economic Data
This week&#8217;s remaining economic calendar with essential data releases that will help investors shape their future plans and strategies.
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, initial jobless claims data till Dec. 7 and the core and headline producer price index for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>On Friday, the import price index data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>
Stocks In Focus:
<ul>
<li>Macy's, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/M#NYSE">M</a>) was down 1.03% as its net sales decreased 2.4%. Sales growth at Macy's First 50 locations, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury was offset primarily by weakness in Macy's non-First 50 locations, digital channels, and cold weather categories.</li>
<li>Nordson Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NDSN#NASDAQ">NDSN</a>) fell by 5.43% as the company revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2025 was below analyst expectations.</li>
<li>Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) declined by 9.99% after its earnings beat estimates but the revenue guidance for the first quarter missed the mark.</li>
<li>Ciena Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CIEN#NYSE">CIEN</a>) was up 1.08% in the premarket as it is slated to report quarterly earnings before the bell. Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 66 cents per share on revenue of $1.10 billion.</li>
<li>DBV Technologies SA &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBVT#NASDAQ">DBVT</a>) rose by 32.83% after the company announced alignment with the FDA on an accelerated approval pathway for the Viaskin peanut patch in toddlers one to three years old.</li>
<li>Amplitech Group Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMPG#NASDAQ">AMPG</a>) gained 39.90% after the company priced its $2.2 million registered direct offering of 1.35 million shares at $1.60 per share.</li>
<li>Nuburu Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BURU#NYSE">BURU</a>) was up 22.62% after the company addressed NYSE compliance violations over 4.6 million share issuance.</li>
<li>Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) is in focus as President-elect Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/12/42454492/djt-stock-in-focus-as-trump-set-to-ring-nyse-bell-today-heres-why-president-elect-once-threatened-to-shift-trump-media-from-nasdaq">is set to ring </a>the New York Stock Exchange opening bell Thursday.</li>
</ul>
Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were largely unchanged in the early New York session and rose 0.03% to hover around $70.31 per barrel.
The gold spot index fell by 0.37% to $2,746.59 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down 0.12% to 106.581 level.
Asian markets were mixed on Thursday as Australia&#8217;s ASX 200 and India&#8217;s S&amp;P BSE Sensex declined. While, Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225, and South Korea&#8217;s Kospi Index advanced. Most European markets advanced.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42454495/microsoft-expects-800-million-impairment-charge-due-to-gms-cruise-exit-but-analysts-say-its-a-step-in-the-right-direction-for-automaker">Microsoft Expects $800 Million Impairment Charge Due To GM&#8217;s Cruise Exit, Analyst Says It&#8217;s A &#8216;Step In The Right Direction&#8217; For Automaker</a></li>
</ul>
Image Via Shutterstock

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Wall Street Poised To Open Lower A Day After Nasdaq's Record Close Above 20,000: Expert Flags 'Deterioration Under The Surface' As 117 S&P 500 Stocks Hit New Monthly Lows

The U.S. airline industry is gearing up for a blockbuster year in 2025, Morgan Stanley analysts say, predicting airline companies on the brink of what could be a &#8220;perfect storm of tailwinds that essentially propels the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/airlines">industry to make money.&#8221;</a>
Equity analyst Ravi Shanker reiterated a bullish stance on the airlines industry in a Wednesday note. 
The U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JETS#NYSE">JETS</a>) has rallied 36% year-to-date, outperforming by about 9 percentage points the broader stock market as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>). 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Premium Carriers Poised For Another Stellar Year </h3>
&#8220;We expect demand to remain resilient with volume growth,&#8221; Shanker said. Legacy carriers like United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) are reaping the rewards of what analysts call "the premiumization trend,&#8221; he added.
According to Morgan Stanley, these carriers benefit not just from ticket sales but from steady ancillary revenue streams, including loyalty programs, credit cards, and brand partnerships.
In 2024, UAL's stock soared over 150%, leading Morgan Stanley to raise its price target from $88 to $130. However, the extraordinary run places a high bar for further gains. 
Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALK#NYSE">ALK</a>) climbed to Morgan Stanley's top pick for 2025, with an upgraded price target of $90 on the back of "upsized synergy targets at their recent Investor Day."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Domestic Airlines Eye A Comeback</h3>
While premium carriers dominated in 2024, several domestic-focused airlines are staging a resurgence. Low-cost and ultra-low-cost carriers, including JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBLU#NASDAQ">JBLU</a>) and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUV#NYSE">LUV</a>), faced a tough year marked by operational challenges and restructuring efforts.
"The other big shift in 2024 was several domestic carriers fundamentally changing their business models to fly less, fly differently, bundle fares, and move upmarket," Morgan Stanley highlighted. 
As these carriers stabilize operations, easier year-over-year comparisons position them for a strong recovery. 
Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of JBLU at &#8216;Equalweight&#8217; with a 12-month price target of $8. 
&#8220;We like the elements of the JetForward plan but note that the turnaround is likely to be slower with more elements outside of management&#8217;s control than other Domestic peers,&#8221; Shanker wrote.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Industry Metrics Flash Green For 2025</h3>
Morgan Stanley expects 2025 to mark the first sustained period where revenue per available seat mile (RASM) exceeds cost per available seat mile (CASM). 
This dynamic is expected to boost margins across the board, a stark reversal from earlier pandemic years. 
Analysts project mid-single-digit (MSD) volume growth for the industry, supported by constrained capacity growth at low-single-digit (LSD) levels​.
Fueling optimism is a favorable jet fuel environment. Prices are forecast to hover in the low $2 per gallon range through 2026, providing airlines with critical cost stability. "
This is the sweet spot of the industry where pricing can drop through to the bottom line while offering an added incentive for capacity to remain rational," Morgan Stanley wrote in the note​.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Sentiment: Opportunities And Risks</h3>
Despite 2024's strong performance, airline valuations remain compelling. Analysts note that stocks like ALK, AAL, and DAL trade below historical earnings multiples, offering attractive upside potential. 
Yet, risks loom, including macroeconomic headwinds and the possibility of a slowdown in consumer spending in the second half of 2025.
Morgan Stanley also flagged the return of institutional investors as a positive catalyst. "The potential return of large, sticky capital bases for the first time in 10 years could set another leg or three in the stocks' run in 2025," Shanker said​.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42444498/bank-of-america-raises-bullish-outlook-on-us-brokers-exchanges-alternative-investments-3-top-picks-for-2025">Bank Of America Raises Bullish Outlook On US Brokers, Exchanges, Alternative Investments: 3 Top Picks For 2025</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Best Airports 2024 &#x7C; Image generated using Dall-E

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US Airlines Set To Fly High In 2025, Analyst Says: 'Perfect Storm Of Tailwinds' Will Propel Industry Gains

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