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The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the Index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the Index. In this prospectus, the term Portfolio Securities refers to the common stocks that are actually held by the Trust and make up the Trusts Portfolio, while the term Index Securities refers to the common stocks that are included in the Index, as determined by the index provider, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (S&P). At any time, the Portfolio will consist of as many of the Index Securities as is practicable. To maintain the correspondence between the composition and weightings of Portfolio Securities and Index Securities, State Street Global Advisors Trust Company (the Trustee), or its parent company, State Street Bank and Trust Company (SSBT), adjusts the Portfolio from time to time to conform to periodic changes made by S&P to the identity and/or relative weightings of Index Securities in the Index. The Trustee or SSBT aggregates certain of these adjustments and makes changes to the Portfolio at least monthly, or more frequently in the case of significant changes to the Index.

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President Donald Trump is preparing to announce his most expansive tariff plan to date, set to take effect on April 2 — a date he has dubbed &#8220;Liberation Day.&#8221; While specifics remain unclear, he has said the plan will impose &#8220;reciprocal tariffs&#8221; on countries deemed to have unfair trade barriers against U.S. goods, with some nations set to face steeper <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/25/03/44566164/exclusive-could-trumps-liberation-day-reciprocal-tariffs-crash-the-stock-market-48-say-this">consequences than others. </a>
What To Know: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted at targeting a subset of nations he referred to as the &#8220;Dirty 15&#8221; in a Fox Business interview on March 18. Bessent described the "Dirty 15" as the 15% of nations that account for the bulk of U.S. trading volume and impose hefty tariffs and other barriers on U.S. goods.&nbsp;
Read Next:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44517885/trump-slaps-25-tariffs-on-autos-what-it-means-for-your-next-car-purchase"> Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Autos: What It Means For Your Next Car Purchase</a>&nbsp;
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett similarly cited 10 to 15 countries responsible for the U.S.'s $1 trillion trade deficit, though neither official named specific nations.
Dirty 15: A CNBC<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/trump-tariffs-dirty-15-reciprocal-retaliation.html"> report pointed</a> to 2024 data from the Department of Commerce that identified China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Germany, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, France, Austria and Sweden.
A separate U.S. Trade representative notice flagged 21 countries in which it is "particularly interested" as part of a review of <a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/february/ustr-seeks-comment-public-unfair-and-non-reciprocal-foreign-trade-practices-0">unfair trade practices</a>. The countries listed were: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, the U.K. and Vietnam.
It remains unclear exactly which countries will be targeted in Wednesday's tariff announcements. CNBC said the White House did not respond to its request for clarification on the forthcoming tariffs or the Dirty 15.
Trump on Sunday dismissed the idea of limiting tariffs to a select group, stating the measures would &#8220;start with all countries&#8221; and lack a &#8220;cutoff.&#8221; Trump's comments contradicted earlier suggestions of a narrower focus and fueled market volatility, with global stocks sliding ahead of the announcement.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), tracking the S&amp;P 500, shed 5.86% over the past month and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, dropped 7.72% in March amid the political and economic uncertainty.  
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/03/44537429/cathie-wood-doubles-down-on-2600-tesla-stock-price-prediction">Cathie Wood Doubles Down On $2,600 Tesla Stock Price Prediction</a></li>
</ul>
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Trump To Target 'Dirty 15' Countries With Tariffs: Which Countries Could Be Included?

For most of the past five years, bonds have been in a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">brutal bear market</a>. 
Since peaking on March 9, 2020, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) — the world&#8217;s largest fixed-income ETF — has lost nearly 50%, battered by tight monetary policy, strong economic <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">growth and persistent inflation.</a>
Yet, fresh reversal signals have started emerging as the first quarter of 2025 draws close.
The gauge tracking longer-dated Treasury securities jumped 4.2% in the first quarter. In contrast, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), a benchmark for U.S. stocks, fell 5% over the same period. 
That 9% performance gap favoring bonds over stocks is the largest in a single quarter since April 2020.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">TLT Notched Strongest Outperformance Over S&amp;P 500 Since Q1 2020</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-849965" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb-1536x793.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31162615/TLT_SPY_2025-03-31_21-25-44_b61eb.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Bonds Suddenly Back?</h3>
Kent Thune, a CFP and investment advisor for ETF.com, believes the answer may lie in the shifting consumer confidence. 
"Weren't bond prices supposed to fall amid the inflationary potential of tariffs, tax cuts and deportations? What explains TLT's unexpected performance? The short answer is consumer confidence," Thune said.
Indeed, consumer sentiment is deteriorating rapidly. This signals that households may begin to reduce spending. That&#8217;s a troubling sign for a U.S. economy where consumption accounts for 70% of gross domestic product.
The University of Michigan&#8217;s final consumer sentiment index for March dropped sharply to 57.0, down from 64.7 in February. This is the lowest reading since November 2022. 
"Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading and fell for the third straight month, plummeting 12% from February," said Joanne Hsu, director of the university's Surveys of Consumers.
This souring sentiment comes as longer-term inflation expectations—shaping behaviors like wage negotiations and mortgage demand—jumped to 4.1%, the highest since 1993.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its June meeting.
The Atlanta&#8217;s Fed GDPNow model estimates a 2.8% economic contraction for the year&#8217;s first quarter.
These signs of economic strain have driven investors toward bonds in a flight to safety, even as inflation concerns continue to cloud the outlook.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Not Everyone Is Buying The Recession Narrative</h3>
What if the U.S. economy avoids a recession altogether and remains resilient? After all, on Wall Street, not everyone seems rattled by soft consumer sentiment data or slowing GDP estimates.
Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44344560/horrific-report-economists-warn-consumer-confidence-collapse-signals-economic-trouble">University of Michigan's sentiment survey</a> as an "outlier." 
Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni remains skeptical the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. 
"We've been predicting none-and-done for Fed rate-cutting this year because of better-than-expected GDP growth," Yardeni said. "Now we are predicting that the Fed won't be able to ease even if the economy stagnates because higher inflation will force the Fed to stay put. The Fed Put will remain on hold."
Yardeni expects the 10-year Treasury yield to stay anchored in the 4.25%-4.75% range. That would likely cap further upside for long-duration bonds. If yields remain flat—or rise—bond performance could turn negative again.
Bravos Research highlighted in an email that Treasury yields are back to where they were in late 2022, suggesting relative stability rather than turmoil. 
"Over the last few months, bond yields have been essentially flat, not reflecting major recession concerns from bond investors," the firm said.
That's a stark contrast from past recessions like 2008 and 2001, when yields plunged sharply in anticipation of economic pain. Today, the bond market is projecting calm, not crisis.
Labor market data supports that outlook. Total U.S. employment continues to grow steadily—an unusual pattern for a pre-recession environment. "The stock market's performance is generally tied to the strength of the job market," Bravos said. "A deterioration in employment would make us more worried about a significant correction in the S&amp;P 500, similar to 2001 and 2008. But we're not seeing evidence of that right now."
With no clear signs of labor weakness or financial stress, Bravos Research views the recent stock pullback not as a warning shot but as a tactical buying opportunity.
"Given we don't believe a recession will happen in 2025, we think by year-end this will have proven to be a buying opportunity," the firm said.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44563303/gold-beats-sp-500-by-widest-margin-since-2011-as-tariff-fears-trigger-rush-to-havens">Gold Beats S&amp;P 500 By Widest Margin Since 2011 As Tariff Fears Trigger Rush To Havens</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

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Treasury Bonds Have Lost 50% In 5 Years, Yet Reversal Signals Emerge In Q1: Could Tariffs Actually Push TLT Higher?

While President Donald Trump hammers home an economic policy with an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/03/44176918/trump-delays-mexico-tariffs-for-a-month-economic-uncertainty-persits">array of tariffs</a>, he may face an unintended consequence: a nationwide toilet paper shortage. 
If so, the event would <a href="https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/05/coronavirus-toilet-paper-shortage/">spark</a> painful memories of COVID-19. Such an outcome might benefit consumer goods giant Kimberly-Clark Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KMB#NYSE">KMB</a>). 
According to a Bloomberg <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-tariffs-may-cause-toilet-190300908.html">report</a>, the Trump administration's plans to increase levies on Canadian softwood lumber to 27% — and possibly to over 50% at some point later — may negatively impact the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, or NBSK. This is a key component found in toilet paper and paper towels.
Driving the headwind against the delicate supply chain is the financial impact of the aforementioned import taxes, which threatens to put some sawmills out of business. Subsequently, the elimination of vital entities would reduce the supply of wood chips to make pulp. A domino effect may materialize, leading to temporary closures and lower production of NBSK.
Downstream to the consumer, the end result could possibly be pandemic-like shortages of toilet paper and related products, which may eventually metastasize into higher prices. Considering that many households will acutely recall the shortages during the COVID-19 crisis, hoarding behavior wouldn't be out of the question. 
From a cynical perspective, this narrative could benefit Kimberly-Clark&#8217;s stock, which is unexciting in any other circumstance.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">An Unusual Twist Catapults KMB Stock to Relevance</h2>
While the concept of another round of toilet-paper hoarding may sound alarmist, it seems that Wall Street is getting the message. Consider the benchmark exchange-traded fund SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which is down roughly 6% on a year-to-date basis. In contrast, during the same period, Kimberly-Clark stock finds itself up nearly 8%.
Adding to the unusual toilet paper conundrum, replacing the pulp imported from Canada — which clocks in at about 2 million tons — will not be an easy task. For one thing, Canada supplies most of the ingredient that American consumers use. Second, many U.S. paper plants depend on Canadian mills due to processing calibrated for NBSK specifically.
To be sure, cooler diplomatic heads can still prevail. At the same time, the U.S. and Canada have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/politics/25/03/44206362/canada-claps-back-at-unjustified-trump-tariffs-on-dairy-lumber">longstanding disputes over lumber</a>, along with dairy. Per a Benzinga report, American lumber producers claim that Canada&#8217;s system effectively subsidizes its industry, a charge that the Canadian government denies. Prior to the latest round of tariffs, U.S. duties on Canadian lumber ranged from 11.5% to 17.3%.
Undeniably, 2025 has gotten off to a messy start for multiple sectors. That said, one of the few confidence-inspiring winners is KMB stock. Frankly, the underlying enterprise offers product categories that cannot be avoided nor indefinitely deferred. This reality may attract conservative, buy-and-hold investors.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31145908/KMB-stock-probability-gambit-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-849847" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31145908/KMB-stock-probability-gambit-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31145908/KMB-stock-probability-gambit-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31145908/KMB-stock-probability-gambit-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31145908/KMB-stock-probability-gambit.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>
At the same time, the relevancy bump in KMB stock also makes it appealing as a trading prospect. As one might expect, KMB features a gentle upward bias. Based on pricing data from January 2019 onward, a long position held for any given eight-week period has a 54% chance of being profitable. Further, dynamic conditions — such as heightened fear or greed — do not materially change the security's reliable nature.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Crafting Options Strategies for Kimberly-Clark</h2>
Investors who wish to be proactive about the TP conundrum — aside from making a quick grocery run to beat the crowd — can choose to trade Kimberly-Clark options. One idea is to deploy a credit-based options strategy called the bull put spread.
For the options chain expiring April 17, a trader may consider selling the 140/135 bull put spread. This transaction involves selling the $140 put (at a time-of-writing bid of $150) and simultaneously buying the $135 put (at an ask of $60), resulting in a cash inflow of $90.
So long as KMB stock stays above the higher strike price of $140, the trader gets to keep the $90. However, if the security tanks, the maximum loss would come out to $410.
Another approach, which is a debit-based approach, is to consider a bull call spread. For the April 17 expiration date, aggressive traders may consider the 143/145 bull spread. This transaction involves buying the $143 call (at a $180 ask) and simultaneously selling the $145 call (at a $90 bid), resulting in a cash outflow of $90.
Should the Kimberly-Clark share price hit the $145 target at the expiration date — which is reasonable given historical trends — the payout is the difference between the strike prices (multiplied by 100 shares) minus the net debit paid, or $110. That would be a 122.22% payout, which would go a long way in easing the pain from the possible TP shortage.
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/03/44567966/stocks-fall-sp-500-eyes-worst-month-in-almost-two-years-oil-rallies-whats-driving-markets-monday">Stocks Fall, S&amp;P 500 Eyes Worst Month In Almost Two Years, Oil Rallies: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Monday?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Options

Options Corner: Wipe Away 'TP' Shortage Concerns With Kimberly-Clark

Macro Economic Events

Econ #s

IMF's Georgieva Says: U.S. Economy Excels Because Of Innovation And Ability to Attract External Financial Flows; U.S. Disinflation May Slow Down In 2025 But Should Meet FED's 2026 Goals To Return To Target; U.S. Inflation Expectations Have Not Dramatically Changed

FED's Williams Says: Does Not Know Exactly Where Monetary Policy Needs To Be Over Remainder Of Years; Fed Needs To Keep Longer Run Inflation Expectations Anchored;  Longer Run Inflation Expectations Have Been Anchored

Fed's Barkin Says I'm Nervous About Inflation, And About Employment; In No Hurry On Rate Cuts; Let's Wait And See How It Plays Out, As Fed Chair Says

FED's Williams Says: Economy Does Not Have Stagflation Right Now; Expects Economy Will Continue To Grow But Slower Than Last Year; Monetary Policy Has Been Really Well Positioned; The Current Level Of Fed Policy Is Well Positioned

IMF's Georgieva Says: Had Very Constructive Meeting With U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent; Bessent Has Good Appreciation For Why IMF Exists, Capacity To Rescue Countries;  U.S. Earned $3.2B From Fund Holdings Over Last 2 Years

General

CORRECTION: Fed's Barkin Is Speaking On CNBC

FED's Barkin Says: This Is Not A Time for Me To Say How Many Rate Cuts I Have Penciled In for This Year

Fed's Barkin Says Data Right Now Is Okay, There Is A Risk On The Employment Side

Fed's Barkin Says Uncertainty Is Very High Right Now, More Concerns About Slowing Economy; Growth And Inflation Risks Are Both Very Important; Will Not Predict Odds Of Recession, Economy Is Currently Very Solid Amid Good Job Market

Fed's Barkin Says Not Convinced Higher Prices Won't Be Passed On, Or That There Won't Be Inflation; To Cut Rates You Need Confidence On Inflation; Higher The Inflation Numbers, The Less Likely You'll See That; 1970s Stagflation Was Characterized By Out-of-whack Inflation Expectations; Not Seeing That Now

Fed's Williams Says Tariffs Will Impact Prices; Consumer Goods Should See Quick Pass Through From Tariffs; Intermediate Goods Could See Slow Impact From Tariffs; There Is Definitely A Risk To Inflation Being Higher That Fed Forecasts; My Forecast That Inflation Will Be Relatively Stable This Year With Upside Risks

Fed's Barkin Says It's Going To Take A While Before We Get Clarity On Tariff Impact; Suppliers Are Emboldened, Say They Will Have To Pass On Higher Prices; Consumers Say They Are Tired Of Paying Higher Prices

Fed's Williams Says Full Impact Of Tariffs Can Play Out Over Long Horizon

Fed's Williams Says It's Early Days In Figuring Out Impact Of Tariffs; There Is Still A Lot Of Uncertainty Around Tariffs, Details Matter; Need To Watch Data To Measure Impact Of Tariffs

Investors continue to brace for volatility ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump&#8217;s tariff announcement this week. Fundstrat's Tom Lee&nbsp;believes bullish traders <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/25/03/44566164/exclusive-could-trumps-liberation-day-reciprocal-tariffs-crash-the-stock-market-48-say-this">will get rewarded.</a> 
What To Know: Lee indicated that the stock market is showing signs of bottoming this week.
Lee noted Monday on CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Squawk Box&#8221; that markets are oversold right now, and investors have already de-risked heavily ahead of Trump&#8217;s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday.
&#8220;Post-Wednesday, I think markets are going to have some visibility. That allows us to take some of the selling pressure off,&#8221; Lee said on the show.
He told CNBC that with so many people thinking the economy could &#8220;completely fall off the rails&#8221; after Wednesday, markets could actually have the &#8220;right pieces&#8221; in place for a bottom following the tariff announcements.
Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44562306/are-we-heading-into-a-bear-market">Are We Heading Into A Bear Market?</a>
The Trump administration&#8217;s tariffs have led to heightened concerns about <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44554304/goldman-sachs-raises-us-recession-risk-to-35-expects-inflation-at-3-5-in-2025-amid-tariff-uncertainties-economist-mohamed-el-erian-highlights-stagflationary-twist">stagflation</a>, which is a period of slow economic growth paired with high inflation. Lee noted that there are a lot of &#8220;distortions&#8221; in the data as tariffs have caused a pull forward in demand in some categories.
&#8220;I think it&#8217;s possible economists are only dialing in the negative consequences so far, but not the positive &#8230; We might end up having better growth, so less stag, and maybe the inflation stuff is more distorting so it&#8217;s not as stagflationary,&#8221; Lee said.
&#8220;Not that I&#8217;m saying it&#8217;s going to [cause] a reversal of markets here, but I think investors are a little too scared heading into Wednesday.&#8221;
Lee told CNBC that he also believes the Federal Reserve appears more dovish than most expected. The Fed was not as hawkish as most were anticipating after the FOMC meeting earlier this month and Lee expects that to continue this week.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing&#8217;s annual conference following Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. The Fed chair&#8217;s speech is expected to be focused on the economic outlook.
The S&amp;P 500 officially fell into correction territory earlier this month. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was last down 0.46% at $553.16 on Monday, but well off the lows of the session, according to data from <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/03/44566197/coreweave-ipo-performance-likely-due-to-company-not-ai-sector-analyst-says-investor-sentiment-remains-mixed">CoreWeave IPO Performance Likely Due To Company, Not AI Sector: Analyst Says &#8216;Investor Sentiment Remains Mixed&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock.

Trading Ideas

Tom Lee Sees 'Right Pieces' For A Market Bottom: 'Investors Are A Little Too Scared Heading Into Wednesday'

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="461" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9349" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1.jpg 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1-300x148.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31165543/image-1-768x378.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
<a href="https://earningshub.com/earnings-calendar/this-week?utm_source=marketmadness-newsletter.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=the-argentina-american-similarity" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">This Week's Earnings Calendar</a>
In November 2023, Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina, running as a libertarian and securing a decisive victory. An economist by background, Milei campaigned on promises of aggressive economic reform, vowing to cut government spending and deregulate the economy.
His first year in office was marked by sweeping changes. He slashed government expenditures, eliminated entire departments, and famously declared "afuera, afuera, afuera" as he cut bureaucracy. Initially, these policies led to economic turmoil, but Argentina soon experienced what's known as a J-curve recovery—where short-term pain gives way to rapid economic gains. Inflation has stalled, and the Argentine stock market is up 98% over the past year.
This turnaround raises a fascinating question: Could the U.S. be on a similar path under D.O.G.E. and Trump? Elon Musk and Treasury Secretary Bessent have described America's current state as a "detox," echoing the challenges Argentina faced early in Milei's presidency. Like Milei, D.O.G.E. has prioritized cutting government spending and has floated the idea of eliminating certain departments.
Of course, the U.S. economy is far larger and more complex than Argentina's, but the similarities are striking. Milei and Musk have developed a strong relationship, and Argentina's fiscal overhaul seems to have inspired elements of D.O.G.E.&#8217;s economic approach. If the U.S. is indeed following a J-curve trajectory, today's economic uncertainty may ultimately lead to a stronger, more resilient economy.
Change is never easy, and economic restructuring comes with resistance. But history suggests that in moments of disruption, those who stay patient often benefit the most.
My advice? Focus on the positive and keep an optimistic outlook.
&#x2A;&#x2A;
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Is US Taking Cues From Argentina's Bold Reforms That Sparked A Market Rally?

Risk sentiment remains under pressure at the start of the week on Wall Street, with tech-heavy indexes sliding while commodities advance, as traders fear a new wave of price pressures following <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">the upcoming tariffs announcement.</a>
The S&amp;P 500 experienced a turbulent morning session, first hitting its lowest level in over six months before clawing back some ground and trimming losses. Nevertheless, the benchmark equity index is on track for its worst month since September 2022, having fallen 7% in March.
Tech stocks remained the weakest link, with the Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% as semiconductor names weighed on the broader sector. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) dropped 1.9% and is down 11.9% month-to-date — also marking its worst month since September 2022.
President Donald Trump's threats toward Iran over the weekend pushed crude oil prices up by 3.5% for the session, marking the biggest single-day gain since October.
Energy-related stocks outperformed and are on pace to log their fourth consecutive positive month, now up 8.5% year-to-date.
Meanwhile, gold prices continued to smash record highs, with bullion surging over 1% to $3,115 per ounce. Quarterly gains have reached 18% — the strongest three-month rally since 2009.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) inched up 1.2% to $83,400, fighting to avoid a second consecutive monthly decline.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>41,688.45</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,555.01</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,001.35</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,075.33</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:45 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.4% to $553.82.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.2% up to $416.59.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;fell 1.1% to $463.82.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) tumbled 0.9% to $198.50.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 1.5%; the&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) saw the worst performance, down 1.2%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul>
<li>Celsius Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CELH#NASDAQ">CELH</a>) surged more than 7% after Truist upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and lifted its price target from $35 to $45.</li>
<li>Wolfspeed Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WOLF#NYSE">WOLF</a>) roared 11% following a 52% drop on Friday. </li>
<li>Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>) shares plunged nearly 10% after the resignation of Dr. Peter Marks, the FDA's top vaccine official, sparked concerns over potential delays in the review of new treatments.</li>
</ul>
Read Now:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/25/03/44564323/tech-linked-etfs-suffer-outflows-in-march-as-ai-mini-bubble-pops-on-tariff-panic">Tech-Linked ETFs Suffer Outflows In March As AI &#8216;Mini Bubble&#8217; Pops On Tariff Panic</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock Professional via Shutterstock

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