L'intérêt à découvert pour abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF donne aux investisseurs une idée du degré auquel les investisseurs parient sur la baisse de l'action de abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF. Les données sur l'intérêt à découvert sont mises à jour toutes les deux semaines.

abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (ARCA:PPLT), Rapport sur les intérêts à découvert

The fund designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in platinum with minimal credit risk. Advantages of investing in the Shares include Ease and Flexibility of Investment, Expenses, Minimal Credit Risk.

Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF

abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF

The platinum market is set for its third consecutive year of deficits, as supply constraints and weak recycling rates have driven the forecasted shortfall of this valuable <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities" rel="noreferrer noopener">commodity</a> by over 50%.
The latest report from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the deficit in 2025 will be as much as 848,000 ounces, instead of the earlier estimate of 539,000.
"The key takeaway is that the deficit we're expecting in 2025 is of such a magnitude that, even if geopolitical and economic uncertainties were to prove massively damaging to demand, they wouldn't be able to eliminate it," <a target="_blank" href="https://platinuminvestment.com/files/328571/WPIC_PR_PQ_Q4_2024_20250305.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> Edward Sterck, WPIC's Director of Research.
WPIC sees the mine supply drop as much as 5% year-on-year, with refined production projected at 5.51 million ounces. Notable hurdles are reduced palladium-related output in North America and ongoing restructuring efforts in South Africa, the largest producing jurisdiction.
Many platinum producers grapple with the economic challenges of persistently low platinum group metal basket prices. Additionally, limited material from work-in-progress inventories is further constraining supply.
Meanwhile, platinum recycling remains weak due to a shortage of end-of-life catalytic converters, with total recycling output forecasted at just 1.5 million ounces, only slightly higher than 2024's 12-year low.
Geopolitical tensions are an additional pressure on the platinum market. Tariff uncertainties, particularly in the U.S., have influenced investment behavior, with market participants preemptively moving platinum into the U.S. to avoid potential import taxes.
This dynamic led to a surge in exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings and exchange stocks, driving investment demand to record levels. Sterck noted that the fear of tariffs has created a "proactive shift" of metal into the U.S., which could have inflationary effects and potentially strengthen the U.S. dollar, further pressuring platinum prices – as commodities are denominated in U.S. dollars.
While WPIC sees the clear supply-side issues driving prices higher, there are notions that an easing demand might help alleviate some pressure.
The automotive sector, which accounts for around 80% of platinum demand – owing to metal's essential role in internal combustion engine vehicles- is expecting a decline in platinum demand by 1% in 2025. Furthermore, industrial demand for glass production is forecated to drop by 14%, particularly in China. Meanwhile, the jewelry market is expected to grow by 2%.
Investors will wait for the world's largest platinum producer, Anglo American Platinum (AMPLATS), to demerge from its parent company, Anglo American (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>).
The demerger, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.angloamerican.com/media/press-releases/2025/17-02-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">scheduled for June 2025</a> pending shareholder and regulatory approvals, will see AMPLATS listed primarily on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange with an additional listing on the London Stock Exchange. Anglo American will retain a 19.9% stake in AMPLATS to manage flowback and ensure a smooth transition.
Price Watch: abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PPLT#NYSE">PPLT</a>) is up 6.53% year-to-date.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/03/44137155/sqm-cuts-capex-as-lower-lithium-prices-weigh-in-on-miners" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">SQM Cuts Capex As Lower Lithium Prices Weigh-In On Miners</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by yMediaStock via Shutterstock

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Guidance

Commodities

Global

Markets

AAUKF

PALL

PGMFF

First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund

PLTM

PPLT

Platinum Set For Another Year Of Deficits, As Supply Constraints Outpace Falling Demand

Lower interest rates and negative-yielding debt around the world are among the factors contributing to investors renewed interest in precious metals and the related exchange traded funds this year.
When the conversation on precious metals ETF is reborn, it usually drifts toward funds such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) due to silver&#39;s correlations to gold.
This year, however, the precious metals competition, both spot prices and ETF performances, is being dominated by palladium and it&#39;s not even close.
<h3>Why It&#39;s Important </h3>
Year to date, the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>), which is backed by physical holdings of the white metal, is higher by more than 43%. In a vacuum, that&#39;s a stellar performance, but consider the following: The year-to-date performances of GLD, SLV and PALL&#39;s stablemate, the Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>), need to be combined to exceed PALL&#39;s 2019 returns.
To be fair, PALL is the most volatile of that quartet of precious metals ETFs, but the palladium fund is topping its rivals by wide enough margins that the extra volatility is worth it.
Additionally, a supply shortage coupled with strong demand has made palladium the most expensive precious metal, ahead of gold and even platinum.
&ldquo;Usage is increasing as governments, especially China&#39;s, tighten regulations to crack down on pollution from vehicles, forcing automakers to increase the amount of precious metal they use,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-28/why-palladium-is-suddenly-a-more-precious-metal-quicktake-k2ap4ryc?srnd=premium">according to Bloomberg</a>. &ldquo;In Europe, consumers bought fewer diesel cars, which mostly use platinum, and instead chose gasoline-powered vehicles, which use palladium, following revelations that makers of diesel cars cheated on emissions tests.&rdquo;
<h3>What&#39;s Next</h3>
As for what&#39;s next for PALL, perhaps it&#39;ll be inflows from late-arriving investors because even with the fund&#39;s stellar performance this year, it&#39;s trailing GLD, PPLT and SLV in terms of year-to-date inflows.
Investors have added a respectable $29.22 million to PALL this year, but that pales in comparison to the $986.23 allocated to SLV and the $6.32 billion that&#39;s flowed into GLD.
Assuming PALL finishes 2019 outperforming its aforementioned rivals, something that&#39;s likely to happen, this market the sixth year in the past seven PALL has been the top performer among the aforementioned precious metals funds.
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/19/10/14668519/assets-continue-pouring-into-esg-etfs">Big Inflows To ESG ETFs Continue</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/19/10/14668343/investors-love-this-vanguard-dividend-etf">Investors Love This Vanguard Fund </a>
Photo by Jurii/Wikimedia.

Long Ideas

Specialty ETFs

Trading Ideas

ETFs

Palladium ETF Continues Pushing Past Precious Metals Rivals

With year-to-date losses of just under 30 percent, the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) are easily the worst performers among the major precious metals exchange-traded funds.
The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) is down just 10.6 percent, while the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) looks good compared to PALL and PPLT with a year-to-date loss of 12.6 percent. Shrewd commodities and ETF investors know better than to be fooled by silver.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/12/6045280/miners-the-best-way-to-play-a-rate-hike">Miners: The Best Way To Play A Rate Hike?</a></bzrelatedlink>
Flows data have proven to be accurate harbingers of silver&#39;s recent fate, and traders are getting it right with inverse, leveraged silver ETFs&mdash; something that is not always the case with<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/11/5969460/rate-hike-odds-shine-a-light-on-leveraged-gold-miners-etfs"> leveraged gold miners ETFs</a>.
 SLV and rival Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sivr#NYSE">SIVR</a>) have been losing assets as investors, concerned about the effects of higher interest rates on commodities, have continued departing precious metals ETFs.
<h3>The Commodities Concern</h3>
&ldquo;Since topping out in August 2011, commodity ETP assets have been in decline thanks to negative returns and sharp redemptions. Investors have yanked more than $22 billion out of commodity ETPs over this period,&rdquo; according to <a href="http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=716810">Morningstar</a>.
However, what long-term investors should concern themselves with is long-term, risk-adjusted returns &ndash; and that outlook is bleak for commodities because, as Morningstar&#39;s data indicate, portfolios including commodities result in lower Sharpe Ratios than traditional 60 percent equity/40 percent fixed income portfolios.
Translation: These are the days for risk-tolerant traders to consider inverse silver exchange-traded products, including the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zsl#NYSE">ZSL</a>) and the Credit Suisse AG - VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dslv#NYSE">DSLV</a>).
<h3>Inverse Silver</h3>
&ldquo;This morning we see SLV barely trading above another 2015 low registered just yesterday in the product, and 2015 in general has been brutal for the metal and related precious metals, since none of them trade in a vacuum. Even though it has performed well this year being on the bearish side of Silver prices, ZSL only has $55 million in assets under management and has seen modest outflows (-$12 million) year-to-date in spite of its timeliness,&rdquo; said <a href="http://streetonefinancial.com/">Street One Financial</a> Paul Weisbruch in a note out Tuesday. 
DSLV attempts to deliver triple the daily inverse returns of the S&amp;P GSCI Silver Index Excess Return while ZSL, the ProShares product, seeks to deliver double the daily inverse returns of silver prices at the London fixing.
 ZSL is up nearly 13 percent over the past three months while DSLV is higher by 16.7 percent over that period.
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/abstract-alloy-aluminum-backdrop-18906/">Public Domain</a>

Short Ideas

Intraday Update

DSLV

SIVR

Possibly The Only Silver ETFs To Be Concerned With

Gold and corresponding exchange-traded products have gotten some negative attention this week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest meeting. Although the Fed opted to once again stand pat on interest rates, market observers are adjusting their expectations upward in anticipation that the central bank will boost borrowing costs in December.

	That is good news for the dollar and bad news for dollar-denominated commodities, such as precious metals. Platinum- and palladium-backed ETFs are also being pinched by speculation that the Fed is close raising rates...sort of.

	&ldquo;Platinum-backed funds have seen outflows of just over 160,000 ounces so far in October, taking their holdings to their lowest since early 2014 at 2.232 million ounces. The bulk of the selling was seen from the Johannesburg-listed NewPlat ETF operated by Absa Capital, which has seen its holdings fall 134,000 ounces this month,&rdquo; reported <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/platinum-etf-outflows-idUSL8N12U3YL20151030">Reuters</a>.

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/10/5896788/commodities-etfs-want-to-get-back-into-your-portfolio">Commodities ETFs Want To Get Back Into Your Portfolio</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>
	Palladium And Platinum Stories In The U.S.</h3>

	The outflows story for palladium and platinum ETFs listed in the U.S. is a bit more sanguine. This month, the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) and the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) have lost just $12.9 million in assets combined.

	As far as PALL is concerned, modest asset loss is not surprising as traders have perhaps been looking to take profits in the palladium ETF after the fund <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/10/5884532/the-palladium-etf-is-the-ultimate-volkswagen-victor">surged on the back</a> of the Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vlkay#OTC">VLKAY</a>) controversy.

	In terms of price action, PALL is off just a tenth of a percent this month, while PPLT has surged nearly 9 percent.

	Although some commodities investors and traders outside of the United States have become cautious on palladium and platinum, an obvious equity-based derivative play on the prices of those metals has been soaring this month as well.
<h3>
	Beyond The U.S.</h3>

	The iShares MSCI South Africa Index (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>) is up 5.5 percent this month. Though that performance lags the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by about 50 basis points, EZA&#39;s October strength is impressive on a couple of levels.

	First, South Africa is the world&#39;s largest platinum-producing country and the second-largest palladium producer behind Russia. That is to say, although the materials sector is not a significant part of EZA, price action in those metals looms large for South African equities.

	Second, investors, to the extent that they can be, appear comfortable with the fact that South Africa could very well be the next emerging market to suffer a <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/10/5934918/this-emerging-markets-etf-could-have-to-endure-a-credit-downg">sovereign credit downgrade</a> at the hands of one of the major ratings agencies. Maybe Turkey will beat South Africa to that dubious punch, but a rating downgrade is still on the table for Africa&#39;s second-largest economy.

	Image Credit: By Stephen B Streater (Own work) [<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/One_litre_of_Platinum.jpg">Public domain</a>], via Wikimedia Commons; One Litre of Platinum

Emerging Markets

Emerging Market ETFs

VLKAY

A Pinch For Palladium, Platinum ETFs

It has been less than a month and a half since Standard &amp; Poor&#39;s stripped Brazil of an investment-grade credit rating, sending Latin America&#39;s largest economy to junk status. Since then, market participants have speculated about which emerging market will be next to lose an investment-grade rating.

	As some recent <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/47da8ae6-5878-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/markets/feed//product#axzz3lIZWXUcq">media reports suggest</a>, the emerging markets patch has plenty of candidates that could suffer ratings downgrades, including Turkey. In May, S&amp;P downgraded its rating on Turkey&#39;s lira, one of this year&#39;s worst-performing emerging markets currencies to &quot;BBB-/A-3&quot; from &quot;BBB/A-2.&rdquo; At the time, the ratings agency said there is in a one-in-three chance it could <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/09/5834560/turkey-etf-could-be-next-to-be-stung-by-credit-downgrade">downgrade Turkey&#39;s sovereign </a>in six to 12 months.

	Turkey may have some competition from South Africa for next emerging market to see its sovereign credit rating sent to junk. With the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>) down 17 percent over the past six months, it is easy to see why.

	Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/10/5934893/a-winning-dividend-etf-for-market-tumult">A Winning Dividend ETF For Market Tumult</a>

	&ldquo;South Africa took a step closer to another credit-rating downgrade as a slowing economy forced Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene to boost debt at the same time that mounting spending pressures fueled protests against the government,&rdquo; <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/south-africa-faces-downgrade-risk-with-budget-marred-by-protests">reports Bloomberg</a>.

	S&amp;P currently rates debt issued by South Africa, Africa&#39;s second-largest economy behind Nigeria, BBB-, the lowest investment grade. Fitch Ratings rates South African bonds BBB while Moody&#39;s Investors Service has a Baa2 rating on South Africa. Moody&#39;s and S&amp;P have stable outlooks on their ratings of South African debt while Fitch has a negative outlook.

	Looking at the performances of the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) explains some EZA&#39;s woes this year. Those precious metals are down an average of 16.5 percent year-to-date and that is bad news for the South African economy because the country is the world&#39;s largest platinum producer and the second-largest palladium producer behind Russia.

	The $408.2 million EZA is not significantly exposed to those swooning metals as the materials sector accounts for just 5.5 percent of the ETF&#39;s weight. Five other sectors command bigger weights in the lone South Africa-specific ETF.

	Still, EZA and South Africa face other risks to retention of an investment-grade credit rating, namely massive unemployment. In May, South Africa&#39;s jobless rate hit an 11-year high at 26.4 percent before falling to 25 percent by the end of the second quarter. At 25 percent, South Africa&#39;s unemployment rate is nearly triple that of Brazil&#39;s.

This Emerging Markets ETF Could Have To Endure A Credit Downgrade

The American depositary receipts (ADRs) of German automotive giant Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vlkay#OTC">VLKAY</a>) are down more than 3 percent at this writing Friday and have touched a new 52-week low.
	Volkswagen ADRs have plunged 36.5 percent over the past month following an emissions scandal and reports of fraudulent software in a sizable percentage of Volkswagen models on the road in the United States.

	As <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/09/5876864/a-different-way-to-bet-against-volkswagen">reported earlier this week</a>, Teo Lasarte, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst, &ldquo;sees four potential risks to the company as the Volkswagen emissions scandal continues to play out.&rdquo;
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/10/5884227/volkswagens-risks-may-be-overlooked-despite-press-disast">Volkswagen Risks May Be Overlooked Despite Press Disaster, Analyst Warns</a></bzrelatedlink>
The report continued, &ldquo;Risks include regulatory fines, lawsuits, recall costs and a potential capital increase to the company&rsquo;s financial segment. At this time, developments are too early-stage for Bank of America to attempt to quantify these risks accurately, but Lasarte estimated that the company could face &euro;26.5 billion in liabilities.&rdquo; 
Lasarte is just one analyst. Others have heaped bearish calls on Volkswagen as well, and with the risks outlined by Lasarte nowhere close to being resolved, it is reasonable to expect the sell side will not be warming to Volkswagen anytime soon.
<h3>Volkswagen And ETFs</h3>
Volkswagen&#39;s negative impact on exchange-traded funds has not been too dramatic, but there has been fallout. For example, the iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewg#NYSE">EWG</a>) is off more than 5 percent over the past month, as its weight to Volkswagen has dwindled to just 1.7 percent.
 The First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund (First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund II (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/carz#NASDAQ">CARZ</a>)), the only dedicated automotive ETF, is lower by 2.2 percent over the past month. CARZ has a Volkswagen weight of less than 2.4 percent, <a href="http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfHoldings.aspx?Ticker=CARZ">according to First Trust data</a>.
Just as EWG, CARZ and other ETFs have struggled in the wake of the Volkswagen scandal, the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares
 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) has flourished. Perhaps precious metals are trading higher Friday because of the slack September jobs report. However, PALL is up 3.4 percent at this writing on volume that has already eclipsed the daily average because Volkswagen ADRs are lower. Friday&#39;s jump brings PALL&#39;s one-month gain to 21.6 percent.
Over the same period, the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>), the largest commodities ETF, is up just 0.8 percent. PALL is the palladium equivalent of GLD, as the former holds physical palladium.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/09/5876864/a-different-way-to-bet-against-volkswagen">A Different Way To Bet Against Volkswagen</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>Volkswagen And Palladium</h3>
Volkswagen&#39;s woes have been a boon for PALL for a simple reason: Diesel automobiles require platinum for the production of catalytic converters, and it is diesel that has gotten Volkswagen in trouble. Volkswagen explains why PALL&#39;s platinum-based cousin ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) is off nearly 10 percent over the past month.
Platinum now resides at its lowest levels in 13 years against palladium, <a href="http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/london/diesel-emission-scandal-sends-platinum-to-13-21220793">according to Platts</a>. For its part, palladium is the key ingredient in the production of catalytic converters for gasoline-based automobiles.
History has shown there are two fundamental catalysts that have the power to move PALL:
<li>1. Supply concerns, either by way of traders fretting about dwindling supply in Russia or labor strikes in South Africa. Russia and South Africa are the two largest palladium-producing nations.</li>
<li>2. Automotive demand. Most of the automobiles produced in the United States and China, the world&#39;s largest automotive markets, are gas-powered, meaning manufacturers require palladium, not platinum, for the production of catalytic converters.</li>
 Put simply, the longer Volkswagen&#39;s problems persist, the more upside potential PALL might have.
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/vw-beetle-volkswagen-classic-car-238459/">Public Domain</a>

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CARZ

The Palladium ETF Is The Ultimate Volkswagen Victor

Rumors

Futures

GOLD

South Africa's Mining Industry, Unions, Government Agree to Plan to Stem Job Losses, Delays Layoff, Sell Distressed Assets, Promote Platinum as Central Bank Reserve Asset -Reuters

UPDATE: CME Hikes Platinum Margins As Well

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Wednesday, June 19, 2013.

The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) will certainly be in focus.

The Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/faz#NYSE">FAZ</a>) is worth a look.

The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) is worth considering.

Give the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ibb#NASDAQ">IBB</a>) a try.

Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>), Market Vectors Egypt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/egpt#NYSE">EGPT</a>) and the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxi#NYSE">FXI</a>).

Forex play of the day: PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>).

Bond play of the day: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>).

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

New ETFs

Currency ETFs

Pre-Market Outlook

EGPT

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

ETFs to Watch June 19, 2013 (FAZ, IBB, TBT)

Gold's foray deep into bear market territory Monday is claiming a predictable batch of victims, namely popular ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>).

	Of course, the miners and the <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/13/04/3497713/einhorn-could-have-a-mining-etf-problem">relevant ETFs are getting in on the act as well</a>.

	Unfortunately, gold's list of victims does not end there. The yellow metal's slide is also plaguing several country-specific ETFs tracking nations that are major gold producers. China and the U.S. are the largest and third-largest gold producers in the world, respectively, but there are reasons beyond gold's fall that explain why the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxi#NYSE">FXI</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>) are lower.

	When taking that into account and taking Ghana and Uzbekistan, both top-10 gold producing countries, out of the equation, the ETFs that track the largest gold-producing nations are still getting beaten up on Monday. Even the newly minted Global X Central Asia &amp; Mongolia Index ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/azia#NYSE">AZIA</a>), which offers exposure to several central Asian countries though not Uzbekistan, is down more than 4.7 percent.

	Global investors looking to dodge the calamity caused by gold should consider taking a pass on the following ETFs.

	iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewa#NYSE">EWA</a>) 
	Just last week, analysts published both bearish and <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/04/3483010/a-bullish-view-on-australia">bullish views on Australian equities</a>. Today, EWA, the largest ETF tracking the world's second-largest gold producer, is down 2.7 percent. That is not surprising given the EWA's 19.1 percent allocation to materials stocks, including BHP Billiton (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bhp#NYSE">BHP</a>), the world's largest mining company.

	There is one way gold's fall could work in EWA's favor. One of the most cited reasons for being bearish on Australian stocks is the strong Australian dollar. The Aussie is a commodity currency and the commodity it is believed to have an intimate correlation to is gold. The correlation is not high as over the past five years GLD has offered better than quadruple the returns of the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxa#NYSE">FXA</a>).

	Still, any relief Australian exporters can get in terms of a weaker Aussie would be viewed as a positive sign. The danger to EWA is that with gold rapidly losing its safe-haven status, the Australian dollar could rise even as gold falls as investors look for new safe-havens. The Aussie fits the bill. After all, Australia has an AAA credit rating and a three percent interest rate, which is high by developed world standards.

	iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epu#NYSE">EPU</a>) 
	Although Peru is expected to be South America's fastest-growing economy this year, it was noted two months ago that EPU's <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/02/3327164/mining-exposure-may-be-hindering-peru-etf">materials sector exposure could be problematic</a>. That has proven to be the case as the ETF has been hampered by its 44.1 percent weight to the materials sector.

	EPU faces a triple whammy in that it is not only a major gold producer, but it is the world's largest silver producer. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) is off 14 percent in just the past five days. The triple whammy is completed by Peru's status as a major copper producer. The red metal has proven far from immune to the slide in precious metals and China's disappointing first-quarter GDP report.

	Southern Copper (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/scco#NYSE">SCCO</a>) and Buenaventura Mines (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bvn#NYSE">BVN</a>) are EPU's second- and third-largest holdings, combing for nearly 21.3 percent of the ETF's weight. EPU is down more than 13 percent its 2013 high and a move below $39 would have the ETF joining gold in bear market territory.

	iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>) 
	An easy call to make here as South Africa is the fifth-largest gold producer in the world, <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2013-gold.pdf">just ahead of Peru</a>. EZA is off 3.6 percent and gold's fall is only exacerbating a bad situation for this ETF.

	EZA has already been plagued alarmingly high unemployment rate (over 20 percent) and the laggard performances of <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/03/3452210/slide-in-em-etf-exposes-country-weight-flaws">the largest emerging markets this year</a>. Gold's slide has the ETF threatening support at $60 and if that area gives out, EZA could return back to the October 2011 low around $52.

	EZA has other problems, too. South Africa is the largest platinum producer and the second-largest palladium producer behind Russia. The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) are off 4.7 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively on Monday.

	For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Technicals

Events

Movers

AZIA

SCCO

Gold's Slide Hurting These Country ETFs

Economics

iPath Dow Jones UBSpper Subindex Total Return ETN

Copper -4%, Platinum -4.5%, Silver -12%

Shares of discount broker Charles Schwab (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/schw#NYSE">SCHW</a>) are higher by nearly one percent and touched a new 52-week higher earlier today after the company unveiled substantial additions to its commission-free ETF lineup.

Under a new platform known as Schwab ETF OneSource, the California-based brokerage firm will, starting today, allow its clients to buy and sell 105 ETFs with $0 online trade commissions. Schwab has allowed its clients to trade the firm's own ETFs commission-free since the firm first entered the ETF business several years ago.

"Just as Schwab Mutual Fund OneSource changed the landscape for investors and advisors by providing convenient, affordable access to leading mutual funds when Chuck Schwab introduced it twenty years ago, we believe Schwab ETF OneSource will deliver enormous benefit and change the way our clients buy and sell ETFs,” said Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/schwab-launches-schwab-etf-onesource-163000126.html">in a statement</a>.

Noteworthy is the fact that Schwab's commission-free lineup includes over 100 ETFs from a variety of issuers including State Street's (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/stt#NYSE">STT</a>) State Street Global Advisors, the second-largest U.S. ETF sponsor. Schwab will also offer ETFs issued by Invesco's (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ivz#NYSE">IVZ</a>) PowerShares, Guggenheim ETF Securities and United States Commodity Funds as part of the Schwab ETF OneSource platform.

Schwab's new commission-free ETF program also looks to be a shot across the bow at rival brokers such as Fidelity, but the Schwab menu could be what impresses investors. For example, Fidelity does allow its clients to trade select iShares ETFs on a commission-free basis, though that <a href="https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares">lineup is fairly limited</a> and none of the funds featured can be considered exotic.

TD Ameritrade (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amtd#NYSE">AMTD</a>) offers a <a href="http://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/etfs/commissionfree/commissionfree.asp">broader range of commission-free ETFs</a>, indicating that Schwab and TD Ameritrade could see their rivalry intensify as both aim to capture assets from cost-conscious ETF investors.

Schwab's commission-free <a href="http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/investment_help/investment_research/etf_research/etfs.html?&amp;path=/Prospect/Research/etfs/overview/oneSourceETFs.asp">ETF lineup includes</a> plenty of standard fare such as the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/schv#NYSE">SCHV</a>) and the Rydex S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rsp#NYSE">RSP</a>).

However, the Schwab ETF OneSource also features more exotic offerings such as the Guggenheim China Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hao#NYSE">HAO</a>) and the SPDR S&amp;P Emerging Latin America ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gml#NYSE">GML</a>). Schwab OneSource's commission-free bond ETF menu is also among the deepest in the industry, including such funds as the PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bkln#NYSE">BKLN</a>) and the SPDR Barclays Capital EM Local Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ebnd#NYSE">EBND</a>) along more benign offerings such as the Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/schp#NYSE">SCHP</a>).

While OneSource's sector offerings do not include any of the popular Select Sector SPDRs, the group does feature nine of Guggenheim's equal-weight sector ETFs such as the Guggenheim S&amp;P Equal Weight Technology (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ryt#NYSE">RYT</a>).

OneSource also features a wide array of forex and commodities offerings, something not previously seen on other commission-free platforms. Seven Guggenheim forex ETFs can be traded commission-free on OneSource. Schwab's commission-free commodities offerings now include the U.S. Gasoline Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uga#NYSE">UGA</a>), the ETF Physical Silver Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sivr#NYSE">SIVR</a>) and the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>).

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Offerings

Forex

AMTD

BKLN

EBND

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF

SCHP

SCHV

SCHW

Schwab Unveils Massive Additions to Commission-Free ETF Lineup

Following glum performances in 2012, gold mining stocks and the corresponding ETFs are up to more of the same in early 2013. 

A common criticism of gold mining equities and ETFs has been that the miners have not been, at least not in recent memory, participating in the upside of the yellow metal they extract from the earth.

That leaves gold miners vulnerable to increase downside potential when gold futures languish, a scenario that is playing out this year. For example, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) was off 1.05 percent heading into the start of trading Monday. 

Things were for worse for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>), which is off 10 percent year-to-date and that includes Monday's modest gain.

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) has been better though that is not saying much. With Monday's one percent decline, GDXJ is now off 7.8 percent since the start of the year. 

The situation is worse with silver. Year-to-date, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) is up 2.5 percent, but the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sil#NYSE">SIL</a>) has plunged over 10 percent. 

Investors looking to participate in upside for miners do not need to look for. They just need to shift their view away from the usual suspects, also known as gold and silver miners because one small ETF has delivered big returns to start the year.

That fund is the First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pltm#NASDAQ">PLTM</a>). Buoyed by sharply higher platinum at the hands of more labor strife in South Africa, among other catalysts, platinum futures have surged to start 2013. The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>), which is backed by physical holdings of the white metal, have jumped over eight percent to start 2013.

The First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund has been solid as well. Actually, PLTM's 4.7 percent year-to-date gain is downright stellar in comparison to the aforementioned gold and silver miners ETFs. 

Some platinum miners produce more than just that metal. Those companies produce other platinum-group metals, including palladium. That has been a good thing this year as palladium prices have soared <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/01/3279918/s-p-bullish-on-auto-etf">thanks to robust auto sales data in the U.S.</a>. 

Palladium is used in the production of catalytic converters in most cars produced in China and the U.S., the world's two largest automobile markets. Improved auto sales have helped lift the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) by more than seven percent year-to-date.

Combined, bullishness in platinum and palladium futures is clearly helping PLTM. Investors might think that playing a country-specific with platinum-group exposure is a wise idea. In theory, it should be and the play would be the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>) because South Africa is the world's largest platinum-producing nation and the second-largest palladium producer behind Russia. 

That has not been the case <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/01/3280398/surprises-among-em-etfs-commodities-in-2013">as EZA has offered essentially no correlation to platinum and palladium futures this year</a> as evidenced by the fund's 5.8 percent year-to-date tumble.

On the other hand, South Africa accounts for almost 36.4 percent of PLTM's country weight, by far that ETF's largest country exposure. That indicates PLTM has not been hampered by labor unrest in South Africa to this point. 

Canada and the U.K. combine for over 30 percent of PLTM's weight, leaving a 7.25 allocation to Russia as the ETF's only remaining legitimate political risk. Russia could actually be a catalyst for PLTM going forward as some <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/russia-palladium-reserve-seen-by-johnson-matthey-almost-gone-1-.html">here</a>.

After-Hours Center

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

GDXJ

As Mining ETFs Wilt, This One Stands Tall 

Not even full month into the new year and an arguably surprising theme has been seen with emerging markets ETFs that track nations viewed as raw materials plays. The theme being that some of these ETFs have shown little correlation to price action in the commodities traders view the ETFs as often being highly correlated to. 

Interestingly, this theme is playing out to the advantage of some ETFs and to the disadvantage of others. Said differently, some emerging markets funds that have a reputation for being highly correlated to a particular commodity are outperforming that commodity by wide margins. 

On the other hand, there is at least one noteworthy emerging markets ETF that has commodities correlation reputation that is lagging not one, but two of the commodities produced by the nation the fund tracks. 

Additionally noteworthy is the fact that this is not a new theme. Nearly a year ago, the link between some <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/02/2355726/emerging-markets-a-commodities-vs-country-fund-examinati">some emerging markets ETFs and commodities was investigated</a> and the intimacy is not always as high as some investors believe it to be. There is further evidence of that being the case again this year, starting with the...

iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ech#NYSE">ECH</a>)
It is fair to say a lot of folks know that Chile is the world largest copper-producing nation. That leads to a simple thesis that Chilean equities and ECH are held hostage by Chinese copper demand. With the Chinese economy improving, the thought is copper prices should be rising and that should be good news for ECH.

To be sure, rising copper prices would be good news for Chile, but ECH only allocates 14.6 percent of its weight to material stocks. Two other sectors – utilities and financials – are more prominent within this ETF. 

Here is the deal: Spot copper prices are actually <a href="http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html">slightly lower today than where they started the year</a>. At the start of trading today, the iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jjc#NYSE">JJC</a>) was contending with a small year-to-date loss. On the other hand, ECH is up 4.5 percent to start 2013, easily outpacing JJC and the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxi#NYSE">FXI</a>) along the way.

iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>)
South Africa's status as a major gold producer, the largest platinum-producing nation and the second-largest palladium producer behind Russia means EZA is often viewed as a materials play as well. Indeed, its allocation to that sector is higher than ECH's at 17.6 percent, but that is barely more than the ETF allocates to consumer discretionary names and well below the fund's weight to financial services stocks.

Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings downgraded South Africa's long term foreign currency credit rating to BBB from BBB+, the long term local currency credit rating to BBB+ from A and the short term credit rating to F3 from F2, citing rising political and social tensions as reasons for the downgrade.

Those issues, among others, have pressured EZA this year as the fund is off nearly nine percent, including today's loss. That also means the ETF has shown no correlation at all to platinum and palladium. The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) are up 7.8 and 4.7 percent year-to-date, respectively.

iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epu#NYSE">EPU</a>)
The iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund represents an interesting example regarding the correlations between emerging markets ETFs and commodities prices, particularly compared to ECH and EZA. 

Here is why. Not only is Peru a major producer of gold, silver and copper, but that is accurately reflected within EPU as materials stocks represent over 49 percent of the ETF's weight. Since EPU reflects Peru's status as a major metals producer, the ETF has recently been sensitive to slack price action for some metals.

Since <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/01/3253416/peru-etf-flies-under-the-radar-to-new-highs">touching a new 52-week high on January 17</a>, EPU has lost almost 4.7 percent, including today's loss. Over that same time, JJC is about flat while the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) have both traded lower, indicating gold and silver prices may be weighing on EPU.

Interestingly, EPU recently moving lower in unison with GLD and SLV stands in stark contrast to what was seen among that ETF trio in 2012. Yes, all three closed the year in the green, but GLD and SLV offered nowhere the 16.5 returns generated by EPU. Specific to EPU, the commodities/ETF relationship is worth monitoring as 2013 unfolds. Peru is South America's fast-growing economy, but EPU may need the support of higher metals prices to deliver further upside this year.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Surprises Among EM ETFs, Commodities in 2013

Equity-based ETFs can be described as baskets of various stocks. Whether it is a broader market domestic fund, a sector ETF or an emerging markets equities play, the basket approach is used over and over again in the exchange-traded products universe. 

Noteworthy is the fact that as the exchange-traded products industry has evolved, so has issuers' use of the basket technique. The basket application that has proven so successful with equities is being used with other asset classes and some of those ETFs may not be getting the attention they deserve. 

With that in mind, here are a few non-equities basket ETFs that are worthy of further consideration in the current market environment.

PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dbv#NYSE">DBV</a>)
Remember the carry trade, the favorite tool of currency traders looking to exploit the difference in interest rates between high and low rate countries? That trade was savagely repudiated during the global financial crisis, but <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e82911e0-5f36-11e2-be51-00144feab49a.html#axzz2IjePTLSR">the carry trade is not dead</a>. 

With roughly 40 countries operating with near zero or negative interest rates, the carry trade could be starting to rebound and that could potentially be good news for DBV. DBV's index "is composed of currency futures contracts on certain G10 currencies and is designed to exploit the trend that currencies associated with relatively high interest rates, on average, tend to rise in value relative to currencies associated with relatively low interest rates," <a href="http://www.invescopowershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=DBV">according to PowerShares</a>.

As of January 18, DBV's holdings looked like this: Long Australian and New Zealand dollars and Norwegian krone and short euros, Swiss francs and Japanese yen. Home to nearly $348 million in assets under management, DBV has gained more than three percent in the past month.

ETFS Physical White Metals Basket Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wite#NYSE">WITE</a>)
Following another up year in 2012, gold has now finished higher in twelve consecutive years. Predictably, the longer gold's bull market runs, the louder the chorus grows calling for bullion's bubble to burst. 

Fortunately, there are ways for investors to maintain physical holdings of other precious metals and WITE presents an alternative to owning all three of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>), the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) and the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) because those are the metals held by WITE.

WITE has recently proved its mettle (no pun intended) to investors. In the past month, the fund has outpace the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and slightly outpaced SLV. Platinum's surge has put PPLT well ahead of WITE, but bullishness for platinum and palladium does positively impact WITE. Including Tuesday's 1.4 percent gain, WITE is up almost eight percent in the past month.

Investors for a basket fund that does not exclude gold should consider the ETFS Physical PM Basket Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gltr#NYSE">GLTR</a>).

WisdomTree Dreyfus Commodity Currency Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ccx#NYSE">CCX</a>)
In a perfect world, the WisdomTree Dreyfus Commodity Currency Fund would make for an ideal weak dollar play as the ETF is designed to profit from increases in some of the so-called commodity currencies. For example, higher oil prices should benefit CCX given its exposure to major oil-producing nations such as Russia, Norway and Canada.

CCX has been a decent performer, gaining half a percent in the past month, and it should be noted that nearly all of the fund's holdings are short-term Treasury bills so credit risk is not a major issue with this ETF. 

The risks with CCX that do need to be considered include the expectation that oil supply will outstrip demand this year, which could pressure the Canadian, Norwegian and Russian currencies, or over 37 percent of the ETF's weight. Additionally, Australia, another 12.4 percent of CCX's weight, could again pare interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets early next month.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

ETFS Physical Precious Metal Basket Shares

GLTR

WITE

3 Basket ETFs Your Broker Forgot to Mention

As measured by the relevant ETFs, 2012 was a good year for the CIVETS nations – the combination of Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa. At the ETF level, only Indonesia can be considered a true 2012 laggard, but some of the other CIVETS constituents offered pleasant surprises throughout the just completed year.

For example, South Africa delivered impressive returns to investors despite some late-year labor strife at its palladium mines. Egypt fought off domestic and regional geopolitical headwinds for much of last year to treat investors to astounding ETF returns. Making the returns offered by the ETFs tracking Egypt and South Africa all the more impressive is stunningly high unemployment rates in both countries. 

Black South Africans <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/s-african-mine-threatens-closure-killing-14000-jobs-months-after-huge-mine-worker-violence/2013/01/15/1c878636-5f25-11e2-9dc9-bca76dd777b8_story.html">saw an unemployment rate of 41 percent last year</a>. Unemployment among Egypt's young people is roughly double the 12 percent national average.

Those are two examples of the fact that each CIVETS nation faces its own issues in the year ahead. Obviously, investors need to evaluate those issues before falling in love with one of many catching emerging markets acronyms. Some of those issues will be addressed here along with the boldness of predicting how the CIVETS will perform this year by putting them in order of preference.

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vnm#NYSE">VNM</a>)
Picking which ETF should be in the top spot among the CIVETS group is made difficult because a strong case can be made that the fund that follows VNM on this list could prove to be the best performer this year. Additionally, last year's laggard, Indonesia, could come roaring back and take on a CIVETS ETF leadership role.

At the moment, VNM is a credible contender for being the best CIVETS ETF performer in 2013. The fund has shaken off <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/01/3236518/pullback-in-vietnam-etf-could-be-a-buying-opportunity">the effects of a sharp pullback last Friday</a> and is already one of the top-performing emerging markets ETFs in the new year. 

The cautionary tale is that VNM started 2012 with a bang only to wilt for much of the second and third quarters. However, VNM could be in store for a stellar year. Yes, the country is coming off its slowest economic growth year in 13 years, but investors know that. Inflation is muted by Vietnam's standards and investors know that as well.

VNM can take a big leap this year if Vietnamese policymakers move forward with plans such as increasing trading bands at local stock exchanges, cracking down on corruption and boosting foreign ownership limits in Vietnamese banks. The bank issue is pivotal because Vietnamese banks are suffering through a significant bad loan problem and it could take <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/01/3218153/foreign-investors-saviors-of-vietnamese-banks-vietnam-etf">increased foreign investment</a> to prop up some bad Vietnamese banks. 

That would be a boon for VNM because financial services names account for about 45 percent of the ETF's weight.

iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tur#NYSE">TUR</a>)
The iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund could easily be in the top spot on this list. That is where the ETF finished among the CIVETS in 2012 with a gain of about 60 percent. Banking on another year of that type of performance could lead to some disappointment, but the pieces are in place for TUR to have another strong year and perhaps reign as the CIVETS ETF king once again.

Despite a <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/01/3245901/flap-with-s-p-doesnt-derail-turkey-etf">flap with Standard &amp; Poor's</a>, Turkey is pushing for an investment-grade rating, something it was able to land from Fitch Ratings last November. Turkish banks are healthy, and that is important to TUR's fate because financials account for 51.5 percent of the ETF's weight.

Favorable demographics and the potential for a job-creating energy boom also bolster the case for TUR. Perhaps the worst thing that can be said of the ETF right now is that the ETF has the look of an overbought momentum stock. Then again, <a href="http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/TUR.htm?fundSearch=true&amp;qt=TUR">the ETF's P/E ratio of around 14</a> is below that of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eem#NYSE">EEM</a>), implying Turkey trades at a bit of discount to the broader emerging markets universe.

In the case of TUR, it pays to remember that what goes up does not have to come down exactly when naysayers want it to and being on the wrong side of momentum can lead to some savage beatings. Just ask anyone that shorted Amazon (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) in the $180-$200 area.

Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/idx#NYSE">IDX</a>)
A faltering rupiah and a widening account deficit <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/12/12/3202207/asian-central-banks-could-impact-these-etfs-in-2013">were among the issues</a> that contributed to the woes of IDX last year. Thus far in 2013, the ETF has not been awful, but it has not done much worth writing home about, either. 

On a technical basis, IDX could rejuvenate investors' confidence in the ETF by notching several consecutive closes above $29 and turning that resistance into support. 

There is a strong fundamental story here as well. GDP growth is expected to be 6.4 percent this year. Said another way, Southeast Asia's largest economy is likely to have the best growth rate among the ASEAN nations this year. Additionally, investors should not overlook Indonesia's strong domestic consumption that drives over 60 percent of GDP.

Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gxg#NYSE">GXG</a>)
Appearing in the bottom half of the CIVETS list does not mean the Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF is in for a rough 2013. It merely means the funds ahead of it have the potential to deliver superior returns this year. Last month, the central bank had to lower its full-year 2012 GDP estimate to 4 percent to 4.5 percent from 4.8 percent due to slack third-quarter growth.

The upshot is with inflation and benign and the central bank looking to weaken the peso, another rate cut could be on the horizon. Already tied with Peru for Latin America's (among major economies) lowest interest rates at 4.25 percent, <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/economy/27644-colombia-may-lower-interest-rates-to-the-lowest-in-latin-america-expert.html">analysts see more rate cuts on the horizon</a>. 

The government balance sheet is strong as the country finished 2012 with a record $37.46 billion in foreign currency reserves, <a href="http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/economy/27704-colombia-ends-2012-with-record-high-foreign-currency-reserves.html">according to Colombia reports</a>. 

Risks to GXG's upside in 2013 include weakness in the commodities markets as materials and energy names combine for 35 percent of the ETF's weight. Additionally, the government deciding to engage in further dilutive share sales of Ecopetrol (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ec#NYSE">EC</a>), the state-run oil company, could weigh on GXG because that stock is the fund's top holding with a weight of over 14 percent.

iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>)
The thing about all the labor unrest South Africa has dealt with in recent months is that it usually boosts prices of the affected metals. For example, the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) is trading near a new 52-week high today. The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) has gained over five percent in the past week.

The other thing is that EZA often displays an inverse relationship to PALL and PPLT amid labor strife, meaning the ETF falters. Last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded South Africa's long term foreign currency credit rating to BBB from BBB+, the long term local currency credit rating to BBB+ from A and the short term credit rating to F3 from F2.

Not surprisingly, the ratings agency cited <a href="http://www.eurasiareview.com/13012013-south-africa-addressing-issues-raised-in-fitch-review-says-government/">rising political and social tensions</a> as catalysts for the downgrade.

All of this is not to say that EZA cannot have a good year, but there are preferred options among CIVETS ETFs. EZA sports a beta of 1.42 against the S&amp;P 500, <a href="http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EZA.htm?fundSearch=true&amp;qt=EZA">according to iShares data</a>. TUR's beta is 1.89, but Turkey is clearly the safer bet right now.

Market Vectors Egypt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/egpt#NYSE">EGPT</a>)
After tumbling from above $14 in October to below $12 in December, EGPT has bounced and is up almost seven percent in the past month. A better than 44 percent gain for EGPT and a gain of more than 49 percent for Cairo-listed stocks shows EGPT and Egyptian can, at times, be impervious to geopolitical headlines.

How much longer that theme remains in tact is anyone's guess and that is all it is: A guess. Egypt is running out of <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/01/3209989/beware-todays-surge-in-the-egypt-etf">foreign currency reserves</a>. That is plaguing the Egyptian pound and recently lead to a surge in credit default swaps used to ensure Egyptian debt against default. In December, S&amp;P lowered Egypt's credit rating to B-, six levels below investment grade. 

Translation: Egypt must now contend with a weak currency, higher borrowing costs and high unemployment. The World Bank is forecasting Egyptian GDP growth of just 2.6 percent this year, meaning investors can capture superior growth rates with less risk throughout the emerging world.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

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iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund

Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa: CIVETS' 2013 Outlook

Shares of the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>), the lone ETF solely backed by physical holdings of palladium, are up 4.4 percent in late trading following a report that said supplies of the precious metal could be at a deficit this year.

Palladium futures are up four percent, putting the metal on pace for its best one-day performance in 11 months, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/markets-precious-idUSL5E8MD82B20121113">according to Reuters</a>. Earlier today, platinum metals group specialist Johnson Matthey said palladium supplies will face the largest deficit this year since 2012, Reuters reported. 

Surging demand for automobiles and dwindling stockpiles in Russia, the world's largest palladium producer, are viewed as at least two of the catalysts behind the palladium deficit. Palladium is used in the production of catalytic converters in automobiles manufactured in China and the U.S., the world's two largest automobile markets.

Labor strife <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/10/2974614/labor-unrest-could-hit-south-africa-etfs">in South Africa</a> is another reason behind the palladium deficit as the country is the second-largest producer of the metal. PALL and the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/09/2919762/platinum-etfs-fall-on-strike-news">surged after South African police killed 34 protesters and strikers in September</a>.

South Africa is the largest platinum-producing nation. Johnson Matthey said palladium demand will outstrip supplies this year by 915,000 ounces. The firm sees a drop of almost 10 percent for platinum supplies due to the labor unrest in South Africa. PPLT is up 1.2 percent today on light volume.

PPLT is up 11.7 percent year-to-date while PALL has tumbled 7.3 percent.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Palladium ETF Soars on Speculation of Dwindling Supplies

Ongoing labor strife in South Africa could continue to plague the country's currency, the rand, and ETFs such as the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>), which have heavy exposure to the country's mining industry.

Strikes in the country's mining and transportation industries are affecting other areas of Africa's largest economy, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/south-african-yields-rise-most-in-seven-months-as-strikes-spread.html">Bloomberg reported</a>, pressuring the high-beta rand in the process.

Last week, the WisdomTree Dreyfus South African Rand Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/szr#NYSE">SZR</a>) slid almost five percent. In the spot market, the rand slid 5.3 percent, prompting a blowout for yields on South African sovereign debt. Yields on benchmark 6.75 percent bonds due March 2021 climbed 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points), the most since Nov. 11, 2010, to 6.98 percent in Monday's session, Bloomberg reported.

SZR, which has just over $4.5 million in assets under management, has average daily turnover of just 622 shares, but volume on Friday was nearly six times that amount as traders fretted over the strength over the commodity currency.

The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>) have surged since mid-August due to labor strife at South African mines. South Africa is one of the world's largest producers of gold, palladium and platinum. Due to the country's abundance of precious metals resources, the rand is often viewed as commodity currency, implying a higher level of volatility than what is seen with currencies such as the U.S. dollar or Japanese yen.

While decreased production of precious metals can be a boon for spot prices and ETFs backed by physical holdings such as PALL and PPLT, lost production can have the opposite impact on country ETFs. For example, the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund has plunged 5.3 percent in the past five trading days. EZA, which has almost $494 million in AUM, is off nearly 6.5 percent in the past month.

The ETF devotes 18.3 percent of its weight to materials names, making the group the second-largest sector weight in the fund behind financials. 

South African banks are far from immune from the strikes. Last week, Moody's Investors Service pared its rating on the foreign deposit ratings of the five largest banks in South Africa. In September, the ratings agency cut South Africa's sovereign debt rating to Baa1 from A3. Financials account for almost 26 percent of EZA's weight.

Even before the strikes, the rand and SZR were struggling due to South African political volatility <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/06/2706528/brics-other-problem-sliding-currencies">and an unemployment rate that is north of 20 percent</a>.

For more on emerging markets currency ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/06/2706528/brics-other-problem-sliding-currencies">here</a>.

WisdomTree Dreyfus South African Rand Fund

Labor Unrest Could Hit South Africa ETFs

With broad market funds such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eem#NYSE">EEM</a>) and the PowerShares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/qqq#NYSE">QQQ</a>) sporting stellar year-to-date gains, it is clear 2012 has been kind to stocks, particularly U.S. equities. 

Of course, more ETFs than just the aforementioned have gone along for the ride and with more than 1,400 exchange-traded products on the market today, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/09/2908232/4-stunning-etf-performances-going-unnoticed">some impressive gains have gone unnoticed</a>.

That does not mean it is all good for all ETFs and ETNs. Even when stripping out leveraged products, which can skew performance data, there are a few funds that are enduring dreadful runs. Perhaps it is a good thing that many of these slides have gone unnoticed as well. 

Guggenheim Shipping ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sea#NYSE">SEA</a>)

The Guggenheim Shipping ETF could be the most deceiving member of this list because the fund is up 9.6 year-to-date. Investors that dig a little deeper will find that almost of those gains were accrued in the first quarter. In the past six months, SEA has plunged 15.6 percent.

SEA's slide is not surprising. Waning emerging markets commodities demand <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/04/2482369/stormy-seas-ahead-for-the-shipping-etf#">has pressured the rates SEA's constituents can charge</a>. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures daily charter rates, traded at 1,162 in early July <a href="http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BDI">but closed below 700 yesterday</a>. 

For now, SEA appears to have found a bottom at $15, but if that level is violated and the Baltic Dry Index continues to falter, things will get worse before they get better for this ETF.

Market Vectors China ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pek#NYSE">PEK</a>)

It is widely known that China ETFs have not impressed when compared to the broader emerging markets universe this year. In fact, many of the ETFs tracking Asia's largest economy have languished relative to nearly all of the other funds tracking emerging Asian economies.

The Market Vectors China ETF is one of the more egregious offenders. PEK, which is currently the only ETF to offer exposure to China's A-shares market, is in the red year-to-date. Over the past three months, the ETF is down almost nine percent while the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fun (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxi#NYSE">FXI</a>) is slightly positive. PEK's 90-day slide is also more than three times as bad as the Guggenheim China Small-Cap ETF's (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hao#NYSE">HAO</a>).

IndexIQ Australia Small Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kroo#NYSE">KROO</a>)

Like SEA, the IndexIQ Australia Small Cap ETF is a performance deceiver because the fund is higher on a year-to-date basis. And as is the case with SEA, there is at least one good reason why KROO has faltered since the first quarter. 

Australia is looking to implement punitive mining royatlies and taxes on companies operating. That is not a good plan at a time when miners are struggling with slack emerging markets demand and the European recession. It is also not a good thing for an ETF that has an almost 28 percent allocation to materials stocks as KROO does.

In the past six months KROO has dropped 12.1 percent, a performance that is far worse than the WisdomTree Australia Dividend ETF's (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ause#NYSE">AUSE</a>) decline. KROO looks all the worse when noting the iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewa#NYSE">EWA</a>) is up 2.7 percent over the same time. To be fair, KROO is up 1.4 percent in the past month.

Teucrium Sugar Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cane#NYSE">CANE</a>)

Plenty of commodities have had their days in the sun this year. Gold ETFs have shined at various points during the year. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) is on fire right now. Labor strife recently lifted the the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>) while a severe Midwest drought boosted ignited amazing rallies in the Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/corn#NYSE">CORN</a>) and the Teucrium Soybeans Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/soyb#NYSE">SOYB</a>), among others.

CANE has been left behind. Year-to-date, CANE has plunged 12.5 percent. The fund is also deep in the red over the past 30 days, three months and six months.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

AUSE

CANE

CORN

KROO

SOYB

Dreadful ETF Performances Going Unnoticed

Shares of the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pplt#NYSE">PPLT</a>), the largest ETF backed by physical holdings of the precious metal, are down 2.5 percent today on news that striking mine workers in South Africa are close to returning to work. Volume in PPLT, which has over $800 million in assets under management, is already roughly quadruple the daily average.

The ETF has surged 10 percent in the past month as an illegal strike in South Africa turned violent. South African police killed 34 protesters and strikers earlier this month and 45 deaths have been attributed to the labor strife, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lonmin-striking-miners-to-return-to-work-report-2012-09-18-1291215?link=MW_story_latest_news">according to MarketWatch</a>.

U.K.-based Lonmin announced earlier today its workers have agreed to a pay increase and will return to work. Those headlines are weighing on PPLT and the UBS E-TRACS Long Platinum TR ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ptm#NYSE">PTM</a>). PTM, which tracks a basket of platinum futures contracts, is off 3.3 percent on volume that is already more than double the daily average. The ETN has soared 12.4 percent in the past month.

Adding to the pressure on platinum exchange-traded products, Anglo American Platinum said today operations at its Rustenburg facility in South Africa have resumed. The British firm has threatened action against its employees if they do not return for their next shift, <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFWEA237420120918">Reuters reported</a>.

South Africa is the world's largest platinum producer, but the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>) is trading higher today. EZA, which has risen four percent in the past month, is up despite comments from South African President Jacob Zuma on Monday that the strike may have cost his country $563 million in lost gold and platinum production.

The strikes stopped work at seven gold and platinum mines also spread to the chrome sector, the <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-17/sa-miners-threaten-to-march-despite-clamp-down">Associated Press reported</a>, citing the South African Press Association.

While EZA is climbing higher, the First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index Fund (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pltm#NASDAQ">PLTM</a>) is off by half a percent on heavy turnover. PLTM, which is an equity-based fund focused on miners of platinum, palladium, osmium, iridium, ruthenium and rhodium, allocates 31.5 percent of its country weight to South Africa. 

PLTM is up about 8.7 percent in the past month. Home to 23 stocks, the ETF has $8.5 million in assets under management, <a href="http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=PLTM">according to First Trust data</a>.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

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