U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at confidence in the speed of trade negotiations and the stability of U.S. financial markets despite recent volatility in bonds and the dollar. The Trump administration is racing to lock in multiple agreements within <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">a tight 90-day window. </a>



In an interview on Monday with Bloomberg's Annmarie Hordern during his visit to Buenos Aires, Bessent outlined a fast-moving agenda aimed at reshaping global trade relationships while maintaining a harder-line stance on China. He rejected claims that steep trade tariffs are a &#8220;joke.&#8221;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fast-Tracking Trade, Starting With Allies</h3>



Bessent said the White House is entering a new phase of trade talks following a "90-day pause" ordered by Trump to set the stage for wide-ranging negotiations.



"We&#8217;re setting up a process and we are going to run that process. It's going to be orderly," Bessent said, noting the administration had already met with Vietnamese and Japanese officials and will continue with South Korea and Spain this week.



The goal is to finalize "agreements in principle" with a wide number of trading partners before the 90-day window closes. Bessent suggested that early movers could gain more favorable terms.



"Usually, the first person who makes a deal gets the best deal," he said.



While much attention is focused on tariff levels, Bessent said the real challenge lies in non-tariff trade barriers such as subsidies, currency manipulation and regulations that distort market access.



"It's not just about tariffs," he said. "It's the non-tariff trade barriers that are more insidious, more difficult to spot."



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China: Strategic Rival, Not Just A Trade Partner</h3>



Pressed on whether trade policy was also a form of China policy, Bessent agreed that Latin America's economic direction was part of a broader geopolitical contest.



"We are trying to keep from happening in Latin America what has already happened in Africa," he said, referencing China's use of debt diplomacy and resource-exchange deals. He called some of Beijing's lending practices "rapacious" and warned that generations could be left poorer.



Argentina has a currency swap line of $18 billion with China's central bank. Bessent said the Trump administration hopes that, over time, Argentina will build enough foreign exchange reserves to unwind that arrangement.



As for direct trade talks with Beijing, Bessent said discussions "will come from the top," referring to President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping.



He dismissed China's claim that the new U.S. tariffs are a "joke," adding, "These are big numbers. It's far from a joke."



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Volatility? Just Leverage Unwinding</h3>



Financial markets have been rattled by the rapid rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year jumping nearly 50 basis points last week and the dollar – as broadly tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – weakening by almost 3%.



Still, Bessent said there's no indication of foreign selling or a broader loss of confidence in U.S. debt.



"I don't think there's a dumping," he said. "We saw increased foreign competition" in last week's long-dated Treasury auctions, including the 10-year and 30-year bonds.



Bessent attributed the price action to leveraged funds getting caught offside during a short-term spike in volatility. "I think this is one of those occasional VAR shocks that you get in the trading community."



Despite concerns voiced by investors and analysts, Bessent maintained that the U.S. dollar remains the world's reserve currency and that the administration still supports a strong dollar policy. 



"We are still a global reserve currency," he said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Independence, Powell's Future And Deregulation Agenda</h3>



Asked about the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, Bessent said discussions about potential successors would begin in the fall but stressed the Fed's independence.



"Monetary policy is a jewel box—it's got to be preserved," he said.



Bessent added that markets overly focused on tariffs may be missing the broader three-part plan the administration is rolling out: tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation.



"The tariff sequencing was always going to be first," he said, adding that tax legislation is "moving quickly" and deregulation will kick in this fall. He dismissed the idea that only a tax extension is on the table, saying the GOP is showing "remarkable unity" on broader fiscal reforms.



As for his message to markets, Bessent borrowed from President Trump: "Stay cool."



Read now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44802211/5-small-businesses-hit-trump-with-lawsuit-over-tariffs-trade-deficits-are-not-an-emergency">5 Small Businesses Hit Trump With Lawsuit Over Tariffs: Trade Deficits &#8216;Are Not An Emergency&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Government

Macro Economic Events

Regulations

Bonds

Currency ETFs

Forex

Treasuries

Econ #s

Economics

Federal Reserve

ETFs

Bessent Says Tariffs On China Are 'Far From A Joke,' Dismisses Treasury Dumping Fears

Editor&#8217;s Note: The article has been updated to include additional content.



On Tuesday, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) reported a first-quarter fiscal 2025 net income of $7.4 billion (versus $6.7 billion a year ago) and EPS of $0.90, beating the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">analyst consensus estimate of $0.81</a>.



Revenue, <a target="_blank" href="https://investor.bankofamerica.com/quarterly-earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">net of interest expense</a>, increased 6.0% year over year to $27.37 billion, beating the&nbsp;analyst consensus estimate of&nbsp;$26.99 billion. This was driven by noninterest income growth across all segments and higher net interest income (NII).



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44586154/stride-bank-partners-with-affirm-to-issue-affirm-card-enhancing-flexible-payment-options-for-consumers" rel="noreferrer noopener">Stride Bank, Affirm Issue New Debit Card With Pay-Over-Time Loans</a>



Segment Net income: Consumer Banking clocked $2.53 billion versus $2.66 billion Y/Y, Global Wealth and Investment Management was $1.007 billion versus $1.005 billion Y/Y, Global Banking was $1.91 billion versus $1.99 billion Y/Y, and Global Markets was $1.94 billion versus $1.79 billion Y/Y.



Investment banking fees declined by 3% to $1.5 billion.



Net interest income was $14.44 billion (+3.0% Y/Y), driven by Global Markets activity and fixed-rate asset repricing.



Noninterest income was $12.92 billion (+9.6% Y/Y). Provision for credit losses grew 12.2 Y/Y to $1.48 billion.



The efficiency ratio for the quarter was 64.59%, compared to 66.36% Y/Y. The bank reported a CET1 ratio of 11.8%, compared to 11.9% a year ago. The book value per share of $36.39 improved by 8%.



The average loan and lease balance was $1.09 trillion (+4.0% Y/Y). Average deposits are up 3% Y/Y to $1.96 trillion. Bank of America added ~1.0 million credit card accounts during the quarter.



Bank of America CEO and Chairman Brian Moynihan said, "Our business clients have been performing well; and consumers have shown resilience, continuing to spend and maintaining healthy credit quality. Though we potentially face a changing economy in the future, we believe the disciplined investments we have made for high-quality growth, our diverse set of businesses, and the team's relentless focus on Responsible Growth will remain a source of strength."



Outlook:&nbsp;Bank of America reiterated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43026092/bank-of-america-q4-earnings-6-7-billion-profit-1-7-billion-in-investment-banking-fees-forecasts-higher-nii-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">a fourth-quarter</a> net interest income of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">~$15.5 billion &#8211; $15.7 billion</a>.



Bank of America stock has lost over 17% year-to-date. In March, at least five Wall Street firms <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/BAC/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">reduced their price forecasts for the stock</a>.



Last week, the U.S. financial sector got some relief after President Donald Trump&nbsp;announced a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44720460/bank-of-america-and-wells-fargo-surge-as-bank-stocks-soar-on-tariff-pause-news" rel="noreferrer noopener">90-day suspension</a> of tariffs&nbsp;on countries that have not retaliated against U.S. trade actions. The financial sector is a high beta, as it tends to outperform when markets are bullish and underperform during risk-off conditions.



However, Ray Dalio of&nbsp;Bridgewater Associates <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44777263/ray-dalio-who-predicted-the-2008-financial-crisis-warns-about-recession-as-us-china-tariff-war-escalates" rel="noreferrer noopener">expressed concerns about</a> a potential recession despite Trump&nbsp;pausing reciprocal tariffs.



Price Action: BAC stock is up 4.02% at $38.14 at the last check on Tuesday.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44800514/these-gaming-stocks-are-under-pressure-as-analyst-cuts-forecast-on-macau-risk-and-soft-vegas-data" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">These Gaming Stocks Are Under Pressure As Analyst Cuts Forecast On Macau Risk And Soft Vegas Data</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock

Earnings

News

Guidance

Despite Tariff Turmoil, Bank Of America CEO Says Consumer Is 'Continuing To Spend' (UPDATED)

When the market throws a delightful little soiree for the bears and headlines scream of doom, gloom and capital destruction, it often feels like it&#8217;s the end of it all.



But odds are the world is not going to end.



It was the same in previous bear markets.



During the 1998 Russian crisis and the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, closed-door meetings at the New York offices of the Federal Reserve were held, in which participants discussed who would pony up enough cash to save the financial system.



Warren Buffett passed. Instead, a bunch of Wall Street and a few French banks stepped up with the necessary cash.



During the Great Financial Crisis, it felt like the financial system&#8217;s implosion was always just seconds away.



In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the end of the world was the lead story for weeks on end.



In every case, the world survived and stocks recovered.



In each case, this was the winning investment strategy during the bear market.



If the end does come, I suspect none of us will be concerned about our stock portfolio.



I do not recall Charlton Heston asking Cornelius or Zira about the price of IBM (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBM#NYSE">IBM</a>) or General Motors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) in Planet of the Apes.



Rick Grimes of The Walking Dead never takes a break from killing zombies to call his broker.



If the world survives the tariff war of 2025, we might want to make some of the moves that paid off in the aftermath of prior almost-end-of-the-world events.



One of the best strategies is buying dividends and dividend growth.



Investors who bought stocks like Pfizer (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PFE#NYSE">PFE</a>), Altria (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MO#NYSE">MO</a>) and CapitalOne (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COF#NYSE">COF</a>) in early 2009 not only locked in high levels of income, their gains over the next decade were spectacular.



Buying high-yield stocks like Unum (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNM#NYSE">UNM</a>), Tanger Outlets (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SKT#NYSE">SKT</a>) and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MPC#NYSE">MPC</a>) in the spring of 2020 has also worked out extraordinarily well for investors who allowed rational thinking to overcome fear.



Unless the world ends, this time should offer the same opportunities to lock in high yields from companies that also offer the potential for outsized long-term gains.



Shares of Pfizer have once again fallen to levels that make the stock a high-yielding opportunity for patient investors.



Pfizer has a diverse drug portfolio and is in a strong position in the vaccine markets. Going forward, they are shedding the off-patent drug business to focus on innovation and newer products.



Pfizer generates massive amounts of free cash flow, which is used to pay down debt, buy back stock and pay dividends.



The company plans to pay out 50% of cash flow as dividends so the payout should continue to grow over time.



Ford Motor (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) is one of the best-positioned auto companies in the current environment and should do very well as the trade war progresses towards a conclusion.



Ford continues to dominate the pickup truck market and I don&#8217;t see that changing anytime soon.



Ford intends to have a presence in the EV market but will not abandon the traditional market anytime soon. The Mustang Mach-E and Lightning F-150 electric vehicles are both selling well and attracting customers who have never considered Ford products before.



Ford has focused on reducing debt and strengthening its balance sheet over the past few years, and this strategy is working.



The company currently has over $25 billion in cash and securities on the books.



The stock is currently yielding over 7% and has excellent long-term appreciation potential from current levels.



UPS (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>) shares have also fallen to the level where the dividend is attractive. At the current price, the yield is over 7%.



UPS seems like a solid bet, even with some bumps in the road ahead. They&#8217;re the big dog in package delivery, handling way more daily packages than FedEx in the US.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Volatile Markets Demand Speed: 60% Off Flash Sale</h2>



When the S&amp;P swings wildly, being first matters. Access breaking news up to 30 minutes before others, customized scanners, and instant alerts—all for 60% off. This flash sale won't survive in volatile markets—<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register-spring-sale">secure your discount </a>now!



Editorial content from our Expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies which are neither expressly or impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.



Photo: Shutterstock

Opinion

Trading Ideas

This Strategy Outperforms In Bear Markets

The S&amp;P 500 ended Monday on a rather ominous note, forming what is known as a technical &#8216;Death Cross,&#8217; a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/16/04/7841369/why-investors-pay-attention-to-the-death-cross">chart pattern</a> that is often seen as an indicator of a transition from a bull market to a bear market.



What Happened: On Monday, the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 50-day moving average, often seen as an indicator of near-term trend, slipped below its 200-day moving average, which indicates long-term trend. Technical analysts view this as a sign of reversal, a point where short corrections can turn into lasting trends.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44804899/us-stock-futures-slip-as-investors-brace-themselves-for-netflix-amex-earnings-this-week-nikkei-up-on-strong-sentiment">US Stock Futures Slip As Investors Brace Themselves For Netflix, AmEx Earnings This Week — Nikkei Up On Strong Sentiment</a>



Traders flagged similar chart patterns in the Nasdaq 100 index on Wednesday, as well as the small-cap focused Russell 2000 index, which saw the pattern nearly a month ago.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">JUST IN &#x1f6a8;: S&amp;P 500 forms Death Cross &#x2620;&#xFE0F; for the first time since March 2022 <a href="https://t.co/IHDcm9ZZ1s">pic.twitter.com/IHDcm9ZZ1s</a>&mdash; Barchart (@Barchart) <a href="https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1911920708118286760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



For the S&amp;P, this is the first death cross in three years, the most recent one being in March 2022, following which the benchmark experienced immense volatility and declined 18% by October 2022, and 25% from its peak in January 2022, officially confirming its entry into bearish territory (a drop of 20% or more).



Why It Matters: According to analysts, the death cross is usually a &#8220;Lagging Indicator,&#8221; which means that it confirms trends that have already occurred. Craig Johnson, a chief market technician at Piper Sandler Companies (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PIPR#NYSE">PIPR</a>) <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-500-on-track-for-its-first-death-cross-in-three-years-heres-what-happens-next-1b5f2c12?mod=mw_rss_topstories">told</a> MarketWatch that instead of signaling more losses, they signal a &#8220;snap back&#8221; rally.



In a note analyzing nearly 100 years of data, Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>), wrote that in 52% of the time that this pattern occurred, the average losses stood at a mere 0.5%, according to the report.



Ciana adds that while death crosses have been &#8220;inconclusive overall,&#8221; there is one critical tell, whether the 200-day moving average at the close has fallen for the past 5 trading days. This indicates that there is more room for &#8220;stocks to drift lower in the immediate future,&#8221; as reported by MarketWatch.



A Reuters analysis, spanning 50 years, shows that the S&amp;P 500 has seen 24 such death crosses, and only in about 46% of cases the selloff worsened after the pattern was seen, with an average decline of 19%.



Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) is down 3.6% this month so far, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) down by 2.4% and 3.4%, respectively, so far this month.



Photo Courtesy: RasyidArt On Shutterstock.com



Read More: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44805013/mark-zuckerberg-takes-the-stand-as-landmark-antitrust-trial-threatens-to-break-up-metas-137-trillion-empire-trial-will-show-what-every-17-year-old-in-the-world-knows-says-spokesperson">Mark Zuckerberg Defends Meta In Landmark Trial As FTC Seeks To Decouple WhatsApp, Instagram</a></li>
</ul>

Markets

PIPR

The S&P 500 Closes With First 'Death Cross' Since 2022 - Here's What It Means For The Markets

U.S. stock futures were volatile on Tuesday following a two-day advance. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed in premarket.



Donald Trump hinted at helping the car companies while talking to reporters in his Oval Office on Monday. He explained that automakers require a transition period to shift production from Canada, Mexico, and elsewhere.



&#8220;And they need a little bit of time because they're going to make them here, but they need a little bit of time. So I'm talking about things like that,&#8221; he said.



Stocks advanced for two consecutive days after he exempted smartphones, computers, and semiconductors from the reciprocal tariffs on Friday. However, he hinted that he may look at levying duties on the chips imported into the U.S. on Sunday in a Truth Social post.



The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.38% and the two-year bond was at 3.86%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing an 82.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its May meeting. 



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.03%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>0.25%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.12%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was up 0.013% to $539.19, while the QQQ advanced 0.22% to $458.47, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Led by technology stocks, U.S. equities closed higher on Monday. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) shares surged 2.2%, and Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DELLL#NYSE">DELLL</a>) gained approximately 4%, contributing to a roughly 1% rise in the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>).



Financials presented a mixed picture, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) reporting stronger-than-anticipated first-quarter earnings, while M&amp;T Bank Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MTB#NYSE">MTB</a>) posted weaker-than-expected results.



Real estate, utilities, and consumer staples sectors recorded the most significant gains on Monday. Conversely, consumer discretionary stocks trended lower.



As of Monday&#8217;s close, the Dow Jones index was 10.1% lower than its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points. The S&amp;P 500 index was 12.06% lower than its previous high of 6,147.43 points, and the Nasdaq 100 index was down 15.42% from its last record high of 22,222.61 points.



The Dow Jones index climbed 312 points or 0.78% to 40,524.79, whereas the S&amp;P 500 index advanced 0.79% to 5,405.97. Nasdaq Composite rose to end 0.64% higher at 16,831.48, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, jumped 1.11% to 1,880.88.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.64%</td><td>16,831.48</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.79%</td><td>5,405.97</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.78%</td><td>40,524.79</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>1.11%</td><td>1,880.88</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that she sees a &#8220;light at the end of the tunnel,&#8221; despite the ongoing<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44807265/cathie-wood-says-shock-therapy-from-trumps-trade-moves-may-end-prolonged-economic-slump"> tariff turmoil</a>. According to Wood, tariffs could be the catalyst to end a three-year "rolling recession."



She said that Trump&#8217;s decision to bring Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent into the process indicates a move to reduce both tariffs and non-tariff trade obstacles. She contends this shift wouldn&#8217;t have occurred without the initial &#8220;shock therapy&#8221; of aggressive trade measures.



The slowdown caused by the tariff introduction will give the administration and the Federal Reserve "more degrees of freedom to stimulate than most investors have been expecting,&#8221; she said.



This will create a "clarion call" for tax cuts, deregulation, and lower interest rates, ultimately paving the way for economic recovery, Wood added.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">While the last two weeks of tariff turmoil have been challenging for financial markets, we see light at the end of the tunnel! <a href="https://t.co/cexMNdtbLp">https://t.co/cexMNdtbLp</a>&mdash; Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) <a href="https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1911969728337186973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The analysts at BlackRock extended their tactical horizon back to six to 12 months and resumed their positive view on U.S., while still expecting the &#8220;ongoing risk asset volatility and potentially sharp reversals.&#8221;



Spiking yields in long-term U.S. Treasuries seemed to be a factor in the change in tariff tactics, the weekly note stated.



&#8220;We stay underweight long-term Treasuries, our highest conviction view: tariffs are likely to add to already sticky inflation, and congressional budget plans last week reinforce the outlook for persistent budget deficits. We favor gold instead as a portfolio diversifier.&#8221;



According to BlackRock, the broad-based equity selloff has created opportunities to tap into certain sectors, and &#8220;selectivity is key.&#8221;



&#8220;We still like U.S. technology benefitting from the AI buildout and adoption. We also favor global banks. That includes U.S. banks given the scope for deregulation even with some potential economic pain.&#8221;



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Tuesday:



<ul>
<li>March&#8217;s import price index data and April&#8217;s Empire State manufacturing survey data will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul>
<li>Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>) rose 1.09% in premarket on Tuesday as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of $1.85 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Johnson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>) was down 0.29% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of $2.60 per share on revenue of $21.58 billion before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) was up 0.76% as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of 82 cents per share on revenue of $26.99 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) declined 0.12% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of 76 cents per share on revenue of $13.26 billion after the closing bell.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ERIC#NASDAQ">ERIC</a>) jumped 6.17% after reporting that its first-quarter adjusted operating earnings, excluding restructuring charges, jumped 44% year-over-year to 6.2 billion Swedish crowns ($636 million).</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Lowe&#8217;s Companies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOW#NYSE">LOW</a>) advanced by 0.58% as it announced the purchase of an interior design company, Artisan Design Group, for $1.3 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>ARB IOT Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARBB#NASDAQ">ARBB</a>) surged 33.83% after securing a $53 million deal to provide AI servers to Whizzl Group, boosting its AI infrastructure presence and strengthening its position in the AI and data center markets.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Geovax Labs Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVX#NASDAQ">GOVX</a>) slumped 34.57% after it was directed by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority on April 11 to halt its Phase 2b COVID-19 vaccine trial.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.29% to hover around $61.35 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar advanced 0.46% to hover around $3,223.97 per ounce. Its fresh record high stood at $3,245.84 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.06% at the 99.585 level.



Asian markets rose on Tuesday, including India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, Australia's ASX 200, and South Korea's Kospi index. European markets were also higher in early trade.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44807265/cathie-wood-says-shock-therapy-from-trumps-trade-moves-may-end-prolonged-economic-slump">Cathie Wood Says &#8216;Shock Therapy&#8217; From Trump&#8217;s Trade Moves May End Prolonged Economic Slump</a></li>
</ul>



Image Via Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Equities

General

AAPL

ARBB

ERIC

GOVX

DELLL

US Stock Futures Waver After Two-Day Rally: Trump's Tariff Moves Could End A 3-Year 'Rolling Recession,' Says Expert

On Monday, April 14, U.S. markets ended higher, boosted by Apple after the White House excluded smartphones and computers from reciprocal tariffs. Still, concerns over pending semiconductor tariffs and broader trade uncertainty capped gains.



Most S&amp;P 500 sectors advanced—real estate, utilities, and consumer staples led—while consumer discretionary lagged. Analysts flagged a potential &#8220;death cross&#8221; in the S&amp;P 500, signaling possible longer-term weakness.



Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose Monday, led by real estate, utilities, and consumer staples, while consumer discretionary stocks declined.



Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44805223/the-sp-500-closes-with-first-death-cross-since-2022-heres-what-it-means-for-the-markets" rel="noreferrer noopener">The S&amp;P 500 Closes With First &#8216;Death Cross&#8217; Since 2022 &#8211; Here&#8217;s What It Means For The Markets</a>



The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.78% to 40,524.79, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.79% to 5,405.97, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.64% to close at 16,831.48.



Asia Markets Today



<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 rose 0.89% to close at 34,283.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>



<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was up 0.17% and closed at 7,761.70, led by gains in the Healthcare, Financials and Metals &amp; Mining sectors.</li>



<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 2.15% at 23,318.00, and the Nifty 500 rose 2.47% at 21,265.70.</li>



<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 0.15% to 3,267.66, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 increased 0.06% to 3,761.23.</li>



<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng Index gained 0.23% to 21,466.27.</li>
</ul>



Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET



<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 was up 0.78%.</li>



<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 1.48%.</li>



<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 0.33%.</li>



<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.93%.</li>
</ul>



Commodities at 05:45 AM ET



<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.57% at $61.18/bbl, and Brent was down 0.55% at $64.52/bbl.</li>



<li>Oil prices held steady Tuesday as tariff exemptions and higher Chinese imports offset demand cuts from OPEC and IEA amid ongoing trade tensions and Iran concerns.</li>



<li>Natural Gas rose 0.78% to $3.351.</li>



<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.39% at $3,238.61, Silver was up 0.41% to $32.298, and Copper fell 0.37% to $4.6080.</li>



<li>Gold prices dipped slightly Tuesday but stayed near record highs as safe-haven demand held firm amid U.S.-China trade war fears. Uncertainty from shifting tariff policies and recession concerns supported bullion despite some risk sentiment from recent exemptions.</li>
</ul>



U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET



Dow futures were up 0.02%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.28%.



Forex at 05:45 AM ET



The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.04% to 99.65, USD/JPY was down 0.08% to 142.84, and USD/AUD slid 0.95% to 1.5751.



Photo via Shutterstock

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USDU

Asia And Europe Markets Gain On Reduced Uncertainty, Gold Holds Near Highs - Global Markets Today While US Slept

President Donald Trump credited his tariff policies for driving Nvidia Corp.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43111153/nvidia-and-ai-stock-rises-as-trump-announces-500-billion-stargate-ai-infrastructure-venture">massive $500 billion commitment to build artificial intelligence infrastructure</a> in the United States during a White House press conference on Monday.



What Happened: &#8220;The reason they did it is because of the election on Nov. 5 and because of a thing called tariffs,&#8221; Trump said while hosting El Salvador President Nayib Bukele. &#8220;I want to thank Jensen and all of the people that we deal with. They&#8217;re great people, they&#8217;re brilliant people, and without tariffs, they wouldn&#8217;t be doing it.&#8221;



The chipmaker announced plans to partner with manufacturing giants, including Foxconn, Wistron, TSMC, Amkor, and SPIL to develop AI-related infrastructure across the United States over the next four years. Production of Nvidia&#8217;s Blackwell chips is already underway at TSMC&#8217;s Phoenix facility, with assembly operations planned for Texas.



&#8220;The engines of the world&#8217;s AI infrastructure are being built in the United States for the first time,&#8221; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in the announcement. &#8220;Adding American manufacturing helps us better meet the incredible and growing demand for AI chips and supercomputers.&#8221;



See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44802211/5-small-businesses-hit-trump-with-lawsuit-over-tariffs-trade-deficits-are-not-an-emergency" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">5 Small Businesses Hit Trump With Lawsuit Over Tariffs: Trade Deficits ‘Are Not An Emergency'</a>



Why It Matters: The move comes as U.S. chip companies received temporary relief last week when Trump paused tariffs for 90 days on nations that haven&#8217;t <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44805317/amd-set-to-begin-chip-production-at-tsmcs-arizona-plant-as-n2-development-advances">imposed retaliatory trade penalties</a>. However, Trump indicated on Sunday that he would announce new semiconductor import tariff rates this week, though with &#8220;flexibility with some companies.&#8221;



Nvidia&#8217;s initiative coincides with similar moves by competitors. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) CEO Lisa Su confirmed Tuesday that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44805317/amd-set-to-begin-chip-production-at-tsmcs-arizona-plant-as-n2-development-advances">AMD will manufacture more AI servers in the United States</a> and begin chip production at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) Arizona facility.



Price Action: Nvidia stock closed at $110.71 on Monday, down by 0.20%. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped to $109.37, a decrease of 1.21%. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 19.96%, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">data from Benzinga Pro</a>.



Nvidia beats rivals AMD and Intel in momentum but lacks a positive valuation, according to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Sign up for more insights</a>.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44801373/a-us-recession-in-2025-betting-odds-say-its-more-likely-than-not" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">A US Recession In 2025? Betting Odds Say It's More Likely Than Not</a></li>
</ul>



Photo Courtesy: jamesonwu1972 On Shutterstock.com



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

NVDA

Jensen Huang Praised By Trump: Nvidia 'Wouldn't Be Doing' $500 Billion AI Infrastructure Commitment Without Tariffs

More than 19 million Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/shib/usd">SHIB</a>) tokens were kicked out of circulation Monday, applying additional deflationary pressure on the popular dog-themed meme coin.



What happened: The burn rate exploded 1734% over the last 24 hours, resulting in a supply squeeze of 19.16 million SHIB tokens, <a href="https://www.shibburn.com/">according</a> to Shibburn, the coin's official burn tracker.



As of this writing, about 410.74 billion tokens have been burned, with the circulating supply at 584.37 billion.



Coin burning happens when a cryptocurrency token is intentionally sent to an unusable wallet address to remove it from circulation. This is done to create scarcity and boost its demand and market value. 



However, scarcity alone is not enough to raise the price if it is not accompanied by corresponding demand.



See Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44621245/gold-backed-cryptos-match-yellow-metals-highs-following-trumps-liberation-day-shock"> </a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44677895/another-crypto-firm-set-to-go-public-galaxy-digital-foresees-nasdaq-listing-soon-after-sec-approves-delaware-move">Another Crypto Firm Set To Go Public: Galaxy Digital Foresees Nasdaq Listing Soon After SEC Approves Delaware Move</a>



Why It Matters: Interestingly, the massive jump in incineration came despite a 28% drop in <a href="https://www.shibariumscan.io/stats">transactions</a> on the ecosystem's Layer-2 blockchain, Shibarium.



Note that a portion of transaction fees paid on Shibarium are set aside and burned through an automated burn mechanism. It's worth pointing out that Shibarium clocked the 1 billion transaction milestone earlier in the month.



Speculative interest in the meme coin was low as of this writing, with Open Interest in SHIB futures barely rising in the last 24 hours, <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/SHIB">according </a>to Coinglass. Additionally, the Long/Short Ratio was below 1, suggesting that a higher number of traders were betting on its price decline.



Whale activity also weakened as the number of transactions valued at over $100,000 fell 9% in the last 24 hours, <a href="https://app.intotheblock.com/">according</a> to IntoTheBlock.



Price Action:  At the time of writing, SHIB was exchanging hands at $0.00001193, down 1.90% in the last 24 hours, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard?_gl=1&#x2A;380nj0&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;MTEyOTAyOTcxMy4xNzEzMzY0NTYy&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTcxNDk4MzIzMi42LjEuMTcxNDk4OTE0Ni4wLjAuMA..">data from Benzinga Pro</a>. Year-to-date, the memecoin has fallen 45%.



Photo Courtesy: Digital Pixel On Shutterstock.com



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44677671/does-the-us-government-know-who-is-satoshi-nakamoto-crypto-lawyer-sues-department-of-homeland-security-to-unravel-bitcoin-creators-identity">Crypto Attorney Sues US Government To Unmask Satoshi Nakamoto, Creator Of Bitcoin</a></li>
</ul>

Cryptocurrency

$SHIB

Shiba Inu's Burn Rate Fires 1734% But Traders Are Still Betting Against The Memecoin—What You Need To Know

Five American small businesses have filed a federal lawsuit against President Donald Trump, accusing him of abusing powers to impose trade taxes under the guise of a national emergency, despite<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/regulations"> no such emergency existing.</a>



The companies submitted the <a href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cit.17080/gov.uscourts.cit.17080.2.0.pdf">complaint</a> on Monday to the U.S. Court of International Trade.



The plaintiffs argue that Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify global tariffs on imports without Congressional approval or clear economic justification. 



The companies pressing charges include:



<ul>
<li>V.O.S. Selections Inc., a New York wine importer sourcing from 14 countries</li>



<li>Genova Pipe, a Utah-based manufacturer of plumbing materials</li>



<li>MicroKits LLC, a Virginia startup building educational electronics</li>



<li>FishUSA Inc., a Pennsylvania retailer specializing in fishing gear; and</li>



<li>Terry Precision Cycling LLC, a Vermont brand producing women's cycling apparel.</li>
</ul>



Each company indicates that the products they import are either unavailable in the U.S. or cannot be sourced domestically without significant delays or higher costs. The tariffs, they say, threaten their business models, margins and long-term viability.



These five businesses are asking the court to declare the actions illegal, block the implementation of the tariffs, and reaffirm Congress&#8217;s <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47679">constitutional role</a> in trade matters.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Is The Lawsuit About?</h3>



At the heart of the lawsuit is a claim that Trump overstepped his legal authority by using IEEPA to impose global tariffs. 



The plaintiffs argue that IEEPA is intended for emergencies like war or terrorism—not for addressing trade deficits, which they called a long-standing and non-threatening feature of international commerce.



"His claimed emergency is a figment of his own imagination," the lawsuit said.



&#8220;Trade deficits, which have persisted for decades without causing economic harm, are not an emergency.&#8221;



The so-called &#8220;Liberation Day Order,&#8221; issued on April 2, imposed the highest tariff rates seen since the Great Depression, applying across nearly every trade partner—regardless of whether those countries impose tariffs on U.S. goods, or have trade agreements with the U.S.



According to the filing, the formula used to determine tariff rates &#8220;is not an accepted methodology for calculating trade barriers and has no basis in economic theory.&#8221;



On April 9, a second executive order temporarily paused elevated tariffs on most countries for 90 days. A 10% global tariff remains fully in place, further exacerbating uncertainty for import-reliant businesses.



The administration justified the sweeping move by invoking a range of authorities, including the IEEPA, the National Emergencies Act, section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, and section 301 of title 3 of the U.S. Code.



Yet, the plaintiffs argue that none of these statutes grants the president the authority to impose tariffs.



Article I of the Constitution explicitly gives Congress the power "to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises." Congress also regulates commerce with foreign nations.



In other words, they say, Trump acted unilaterally without legal or constitutional grounding.



&#8220;This Court should declare the President's unprecedented power grab illegal, enjoin the operation of the executive actions that purport to impose these tariffs under the IEEPA, and reaffirm this country's core founding principle: there shall be no taxation without representation,&#8221; the lawsuit states.



&#8220;Congress has not delegated any such power.&#8221;



Now Read: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44787080/goldman-sachs-cheers-china-tariff-exemptions-lifts-earnings-forecasts-for-apple-dell-hp">Goldman Sachs Cheers China Tariff Exemptions, Lifts Earnings Forecasts For Apple, Dell, HP</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Politics

Small Cap

Legal

Small Business

5 Small Businesses Hit Trump With Lawsuit Over Tariffs: Trade Deficits 'Are Not An Emergency'

The deadline to file federal tax returns is Tuesday, April 15, 2025, leaving only one day left for procrastinators to get it in on time. Here's what to know about last-minute filings, extensions and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44802211/5-small-businesses-hit-trump-with-lawsuit-over-tariffs-trade-deficits-are-not-an-emergency">payment requirements.&nbsp;</a>



Filing Before April 15: For those looking to file a federal tax return before Tuesday's deadline, the easiest way may be using the IRS Free File <a href="https://www.irs.gov/filing/irs-free-file-do-your-taxes-for-free">service</a> or another software such as Turbotax from Intuit, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTU#NASDAQ">INTU</a>) or H&amp;R Block, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HRB#NYSE">HRB</a>), which also offers in-person appointments, but could be difficult to get one at the last minute.  



Read Next:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/04/44793519/energy-secretary-chris-wright-is-bullish-as-oil-prices-crater"> Energy Secretary Chris Wright Is &#8216;Bullish&#8217; As Oil Prices Crater</a>&nbsp;



Filing An Extension: Taxpayers also have until 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday to file for an extension, which would push the filing deadline until Oct. 15, 2025. However, extensions do not extend the payment deadline — taxes owed must still be paid by April 15 to avoid penalties and interest.&nbsp;



Even with an extension, taxpayers must estimate and pay at least 90% of their tax liability by April 15 to minimize penalties. Possible penalties include:&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul>
<li>Late payment penalties of 0.5% monthly of unpaid taxes, up to 25%.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Late filing penalties of 5% monthly of unpaid taxes, up to 25%.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Interest accrues on unpaid tax balances until fully settled.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>



Taxpayers who require an extension can file Form 4868 electronically via IRS Free File or make a payment through IRS Direct Pay and designate it as an extension. Military personnel, disaster-area residents and some overseas citizens may qualify for automatic extensions.&nbsp;



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44695907/elon-musk-calls-trump-trade-advisor-peter-navarro-dumber-than-sack-of-bricks-defends-tesla-as-the-most-american-made-cars">Elon Musk Calls Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navarro &#8216;Dumber Than Sack Of Bricks,&#8217; Defends Tesla As &#8216;Most American-Made Cars&#8217;&nbsp;</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Personal Finance

INTU

Federal Tax Return Deadline Looms: What To Know About Extensions, Payments, Late Filings

Despite recent moves by President Donald Trump to ease tariff pressure, recession expectations for the U.S. economy remain elevated, with betting markets still pricing in a greater-than-even chance of an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">economic contraction in 2025.</a>



As of April 14, on the CFTC-regulated prediction platform Kalshi, the market titled "Recession This Year?"—which defines a U.S. recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before the end of 2025—currently anticipates a 56% probability of such an event occurring.



Although that figure is down from 66% a week ago, it remains nearly three times higher than it was at the beginning of the year, when Trump was inaugurated for his second term.



A related Kalshi market, which speculates not if but when a recession will begin, assigns a 30% chance that the first quarter of 2025 already marked the beginning of a recession.



The White House recently announced two major developments aimed at alleviating tariff-related pressures. The first is a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to facilitate trade negotiations. 



The second is a temporary exemption on key tech imports from China—such as semiconductors and smartphones—following Washington&#8217;s move to raise general Chinese import duties to as high as 145%. 



While these moves provided a short-term boost to financial markets and contributed to a modest rebound in risk appetite, they have done little to meaningfully shift recession expectations.



<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/RECSSNBER-25/markets/RECSSNBER-25?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">CEO Confidence Hits Post-COVID Lows</h2>



Among Wall Street's major investment banks, JPMorgan maintains one of the more downbeat forecasts, assigning a 60% chance of a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44645681/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60-as-largest-us-tax-hike-in-60-years-hits-global-economy">U.S. recession this year. </a>



<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44723376/goldman-sachs-scraps-recession-call-after-trumps-surprise-tariff-pause-as-wall-street-marks-strongest-day-since-2008">Goldman Sachs lowered last week</a> its recession probability to 45% following the White House's tariff freeze, noting that trade-related risks have somewhat abated in the short term.



CEO sentiment across the country is echoing market caution. 



According to the April <a href="https://chiefexecutive.net/ceo-optimism-remains-at-multi-year-low-in-april-survey-amid-growing-recession-forecasts-and-uncertainty/">Chief Executive Confidence Survey</a>, U.S. CEOs are reporting their lowest confidence levels in current business conditions since the COVID-19 pandemic. 



The index, which is based on a scale of 1 to 10, fell from 5.0 in March to 4.6 in April 2025, marking a 28% decline since the beginning of 2025. The 12-month business outlook remains stagnant at 5.



The latest University of Michigan&#8217;s Consumer Sentiment index plunged to 50.4 in April, the lowest since 2022, falling short of expectations by a wide margin.



 &#8220;Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession,&#8221; said Joanne Hsu, Director at the Survey of Consumers.



Analyst Michael Gayed highlighted in an email that the latest inflation data only adds to the narrative of a cooling economy.



Both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for March came in significantly below expectations, which Gayed says "probably clears the path for the Fed to cut rates, possibly as soon as next month." 



Yet, he warned that the backdrop behind those soft inflation numbers could reflect deeper problems, namely deteriorating business and consumer sentiment and rising expectations for a recession. Supporting that view, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April fell sharply, landing at a nearly three-year low.



Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, issued a stark warning on <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/investor-predicted-2008-financial-crisis-says-worried-something-worse-rcna201040">NBC's Meet the Press </a>over the weekend. 



"I'm worried about something worse than a recession," Dalio said, cautioning that if President Trump mishandles tariff policy and broader economic strategy, the consequences could be severe. "I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession."



Still, the White House remains steadfast that a downturn is not on the horizon. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett insisted on Monday that the U.S. would "100% not" fall into recession this year, despite what Wall Street economists, betting markets and CEOs are signaling.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44795609/cathie-wood-says-trumps-shock-therapy-tariff-policies-may-have-been-necessary">Cathie Wood Says Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Shock Therapy&#8217; Tariff Policies May Have Been Necessary</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Dilok Klaisataporn/Shutterstock

A US Recession In 2025? Betting Odds Say It's More Likely Than Not

Social media giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) could be forced to spinoff or divest Instagram and WhatsApp as the result of<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/11/42177636/meta-heads-to-trial-over-instagram-whatsapp-acquisitions"> a pending trial </a>with the Federal Trade Commission.



What Happened: Lina Khan, who stepped down as FTC Chair in January 2025, is speaking out as Meta's antitrust trial begins Monday. She previously accused the company of using monopoly power to acquire smaller rivals like <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/04/44781970/star-trek-quoting-judge-boasberg-once-targeted-by-trump-could-decide-if-mark-zuckerbergs-meta-gets-to-keep-instagram">Instagram and WhatsApp.</a>



The FTC accuses Meta of using its considerable power to acquire Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014.



"It saw companies like Instagram and WhatsApp experiencing astronomical growth, and that's the point at which it resorted to this buy-or-bury scheme where, if it couldn't outcompete a rival, it either bought them out or cut them off its network," Khan <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/former-ftc-chair-khan-meta-acquisitions-instagram-whatsapp.html">said </a>on "Squawk Box" Monday.



Khan said that Meta, previously known as Facebook, "panicked" when it made the acquisitions and could still be forced to reverse course years later.



"There's no expiration date when it comes to the illegality of the transaction. I think there is a way in which the entire social networking ecosystem looks different today because Facebook was permitted to go out and make these acquisitions."



Khan said the FTC's case, which dates back to 2020, is about "free and fair trade."



Facebook paid $1 billion to acquire Instagram in 2012 and $19 billion to acquire WhatsApp in 2014.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/04/44780047/mark-zuckerbergs-empire-in-jeopardy-as-meta-faces-antitrust-battle-in-court">Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s Empire in Jeopardy as Meta Faces Antitrust Battle in Court</a>



Why It's Important: The initial FTC complaint was dismissed before being accepted in 2024 with an amended complaint. Meta has filed a pretrial brief saying it disagrees with the FTC and that the company is not a monopoly.



On Monday, new FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson said Meta is "certainly" a monopoly during an <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6371472206112">interview </a>on Fox Business.



While the FTC trial could take some time, Meta could be forced to divest Instagram and/or WhatsApp. 



The FTC trial unfolds as Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeks to dismiss the case while also reportedly strengthening ties with President Donald Trump.



Zuckerberg <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/12/42454227/months-after-trump-threatened-to-put-mark-zuckerberg-in-prison-meta-ceo-donates-1m-to-president-elects-inaugural-event">donated $1 million</a> to Trump's inauguration fund and has had several meetings with Trump since his January inauguration. Ferguson was questioned by Congress if he would dismiss the case against Meta if asked to do so by Trump.



"Until the trial is over and until we actually get a liability verdict and then a remedy, we're all going to have to wait and see," Khan said.



There are betting markets on Polymarket for potential moves by Meta due to the FTC trial.



The <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-meta-be-forced-to-sell-instagram-or-whatsapp-in-2025?tid=1744653775161">odds </a>on Polymarket for Meta Platforms to be forced to sell either Instagram or WhatsApp are 15% as of Monday. Separate markets for Meta announcing it will sell <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-meta-announce-instagram-sale-in-2025?tid=1744653812472">Instagram </a>or <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-meta-announce-whatsapp-sale-in-2025?tid=1744653796766">WhatsApp </a>sit at 12% and 10%, respectively.



META Price Action: Meta stock is down 1.7% to $534.10 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $414.50 to $740.89. Meta stock is down 10.9% year-to-date in 2025.



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