Dernières nouvelles pour SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD)

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The Trust holds gold bars and from time to time, issues Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and distributes gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets. The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trusts expenses. The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares represent a cost-effective investment in gold.

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L&#39;inflation aux États-Unis a encore augmenté en mars, dépassant les attentes des économistes et décevant les investisseurs qui s&#39;attendaient à des réductions imminentes des taux d&#39;intérêt de la Fed.



Le taux

Inflation augmente plus que prévu à 3,5% en mars, anéantissant les espoirs de baisse des taux en juin.

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When considering a long position in a stock, investors usually consider buying shares in a company to express their views. However, they need to realize that there is a much more aggressive way to gain long exposure to a stock. This other way is through the options market, but there is, of course, a main caveat to participating in these products.
When buying options, investors need to correctly determine a stock&#39;s direction and the timing of the trade, or else risk losing 100% of the initial investment. Knowing this, when investors see unusual call options volume in any stock, the surge can be taken as a very strong view coming from a few investors willing to lose it all, as their confidence justifies the risk.
Today, three stocks have reported a spike in call option volume to show where the upside potential is being perceived in the markets today. These stocks are the SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD) as a way to play the rallies left in gold prices, then there is a financial sector play through shares of Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/hood#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>); finally, there seemed to be a breakout in interest for a healthcare sector view in Hims &amp; Hers Health Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/hims#NYSE">HIMS</a>).
<h2>Traders Bet on Gold Reaching a New All-Time High</h2>
Throughout the year, gold has repeatedly made new all-time highs, but this time, traders think there is one more rally in the making for the precious metal. It might all have to do with where the new business cycle is taking markets next.
As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) accepts that inflation for the United States might stay above its 2% target for a while, other nations like China have started to stockpile gold reserves ahead of potential dollar weakness. Given that gold, like many other commodities, is dollar-quoted, investors can expect it to go the opposite of where the dollar goes.
Interest rates are one of the main drivers of currency valuations, and now that the Fed has also cut interest rates at the most aggressive pace in 16 years, a bet on a weaker dollar could start to make sense. That is why some traders found room in their allocation budgets to invest in the gold ETF.
Knowing that this trend could accelerate in the coming months, Truist Financial decided to boost their holdings in this ETF by 5.2% as of August 2024, netting their investment at $95.3 million today, to show investors signs of institutional bullishness facing the upside potential.
<h2>Robinhood Stock Gains Attention with Double-Digit Upside Potential</h2>
Over the past couple of quarterly announcements, Robinhood has delivered impressive growth in all of its key performance indicators (KPIs), especially user growth and monetization rates. Now that the next earnings season is almost here, bets are off with the view that Robinhood will once again deliver satisfying results.
These call option traders weren&#39;t the only ones willing to share their optimistic views for Robinhood&#39;s future. Analysts at Bank of America decided to reiterate their &quot;Buy&quot; rating for the company, this time coupled with a $32 share price target.
To prove these new targets right, the stock would need to rally by as much as 24.5% from where it trades today and make a new 52-week high. Momentum favors Robinhood stock, and that&#39;s something else investors should take into account when reviewing a potential long position in the company.
Lower interest rates also mean lower yields on savings accounts at the big banks, so more and more people might look to Robinhood&#39;s platform and managed money products for an alternative chance at better returns on their savings and liquid capital.
This trend could significantly increase earnings, justifying the options trade and the recent price target boost.
<h2>Hims &amp; Hers Stock Bounces Back After Misguided Sell-off</h2>
After investors thought that big healthcare name Eli Lilly &amp; Co. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lly#NYSE">LLY</a>) entering the weight loss and GLP-1 market would have been trouble for Hims &amp; Hers, worrying sentiment brought the stock down by as much as 43.4% from its previous highs.
Even though the stock swiftly recovered from part of the sell-off, rallying by 36.5%, it still trades at a mere 68% of its 52-week high, giving investors plenty of room to expect another recovery rally back to previous levels. This time, however, there is a clear catalyst that could close this gap for Hims &amp; Hers stock, which is why option traders stepped in.
Reaching the size and quality requirements, Hims &amp; Hers stock is now being added to the S&amp;P 600 small cap index, which would require a mandatory investment and weighing by some of the broader exchange-traded funds (ETFs) out there such as MSCI Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msci#NYSE">MSCI</a>), effectively driving up demand for this stock.
As of August 2024, analysts at Needham &amp; Co. initiated coverage on Hims &amp; Hers stock, placing a &quot;Buy&quot; rating alongside a price target of up to $24 a share. This new call implies a direct upside of 28.3% from where the stock sits today, another reason to consider the validity of this new options trade surge.
The article &quot;<a href="https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-ideas/top-3-stocks-with-explosive-call-option-activity-what-to-watch/">Top 3 Stocks with Explosive Call Option Activity: What to Watch</a>&quot; first appeared on MarketBeat.

Earnings

Large Cap

News

Health Care

Price Target

Initiation

Federal Reserve

Markets

Analyst Ratings

Trading Ideas

General

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Class A Common Stock

HIMS

HOOD

MSCI

Top 3 Stocks with Explosive Call Option Activity: What to Watch

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-11_09h06_57.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Opportunities In Humanoid Robots</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-inflation-humanoid-robots-cybercab-tesla-tsla-mc-10112024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock ran up in anticipation of the Cybercab event, dubbed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk as We, Robot.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock hit the top resistance zone and backed off.</li>
<li>The chart shows a big drop in TSLA stock after the much hyped Cybercab event.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock has now fallen in the premarket, significantly below the lower resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is now oversold.</li>
<li>From a technical perspective, the combination of the foregoing is a negative.</li>
<li>In spite of the sell the news reaction, Musk's presentation was impressive.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the global revenue opportunity for robotaxis is about $2T, 15 years from now. Tesla is well positioned to capture a meaningful portion of the $2T market.</li>
<li>Tesla bulls are delighted by the details given in Musk's presentation. However, Tesla bears are highly critical that there were not enough details.</li>
<li>Musk showed off humanoid robots dancing and pouring drinks. Musk said that humanoid robots may be the biggest product ever. In The Arora Report analysis, we agree with Musk. Of note, is that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) is hard at work to produce humanoid robots. </li>
<li>The reaction to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) Advancing AI event has also been to sell the news. AMD bears point to AMD not naming new customers.</li>
<li>Inflation at the producer level came inline with expectations. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Earnings season has started. The most important earnings are from the country's largest bank, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>).  JPM earnings are inline with the whisper numbers. As full disclosure, JPM is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long form $34.14.</li>
<li>University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

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NVDA

TSLA

Humanoid Robots May Be Biggest Product Ever, Sell The News On Tesla's We, Robot And AMD's AI Event

On Thursday, October 10th, U.S. markets closed lower as investors weighed conflicting economic data. Inflation came in higher than expected, while jobless claims also rose, signaling potential economic weakness. This uncertainty has led traders to anticipate a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in November.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims increased to 258,000 in the week ending October 5th, surpassing expectations of 230,000. Meanwhile, annual inflation eased to 2.4% in September, continuing a six-month decline but slightly exceeding the projected 2.3%.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed lower, with real estate, communication services, and industrials seeing the biggest losses, while energy and materials stocks ended higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.14% and closed at 42,454.12. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 0.21% at 5,780.05, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.05%, finishing the session at 18,282.05.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.42% at 39,581.00, led by gains in the Shipbuilding, Precision Instruments, and Chemical sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.10% and ended the day at 8,214.50, led by losses in the Materials, Metals &amp; Mining, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was trading lower by 0.11% at 24,974.85, while the Nifty 500 was up 0.05% at 23,610.10.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 2.55% to close at 3,217.74, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 declined 2.77%, finishing the day at 3,887.17.</li>
<li>Hong Kong Markets closed for the Chung Yeung Day holiday.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.05%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.01%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.02%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.24%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.83% at $75.23/bbl, and Brent was down 0.73% at $78.76/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices declined as investors balanced the potential impact of U.S. hurricane damage on demand with concerns over possible supply disruptions if Israel targets Iranian oil facilities.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was up 0.71% at $2.694.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.57% at $2,654.20, Silver gained 0.27% to $31.325, and Copper rose 0.69% to $4.4570.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.28%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index slid 0.11% to 102.87, the USD/JPY was up 0.25% to 148.95, and the USD/AUD fell 0.23% to 1.4850.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia

Emerging Markets

Eurozone

Futures

Forex

ADIV

AGOV

ASHR

BBEU

CQQQ

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

EEMA

FLAX

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

IEMG

IEUR

KraneShares Trust KraneShares S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF

KDIV

SPEM

USDU

Asia And Europe Markets Mixed, Crude Dips While Gold Rises Above $2,650 - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-10_09h03_46.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Inflation</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-hotter-inflation-jobless-claims-spy-mc-10102024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market made a new high and is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows there is selling this morning after the release of economic data.</li>
<li>Most troubling for the stock market is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came hotter than expected. Of course, as a member of The Arora Report, it is not a surprise to you – we have been writing that inflation may turn out to be stickier compared to what the stock market expects.  The reason there is selling on the release of the CPI data is that it is a surprise to the market as whisper numbers were inline with the consensus.  Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>On this CPI data, the market would have been down significantly more than what is shown on the chart because the blow from the hot CPI data is being cushioned by newly released jobless claims data.&nbsp; Initial jobless claims came at 258K vs. 229K consensus.&nbsp; The sharp rise in initial claims goes against the narrative that momo gurus have been using to persuade investors to buy stocks.&nbsp; However, temporarily in the early trade, investors are taking comfort in higher jobless claims believing that it will give ammunition to the Fed to continue cutting rates even if inflation is higher.</li>
<li>On September 26, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Did the Fed make a mistake with the 50 bps cut?
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>We have been sharing with you the economic data that indicates the Fed may have made a mistake. In the latest news, we are now finding out that several FOMC members were not in favor of a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; It appears that Powell had to twist arms to push through a 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>FOMC minutes show that there was push back from several members against a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Several members favored a 25 bps cut.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, based on FOMC minutes, Powell will have difficulty with further large cuts unless economic data changes.&nbsp; This is not discounted in the stock market, and thus, is a risk.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Later today there is a Treasury auction.&nbsp; The auction results may move the market.</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you that NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) has been experiencing a strong rally due to its AI Summit.  At a time when the expectations in the stock market are that NVDA stock will move to the resistance zone around $140, after the release of the CPI data, there is selling in NVDA stock. Selling in NVDA stock is bleeding into other AI stocks in the early trade.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip in the early trade. The momo crowd is especially buying AI stocks.</li>
<li>Of note is today is Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) robotaxi day. TSLA stock has run up in anticipation of Tesla's CEO Elon Musk saying great things about robotaxis and perhaps robotics and a lower priced Tesla model. Keep a close eye on TSLA stock.  If what Musk says exceeds expectations, expect TSLA stock to rally towards $300.  On the other hand, if what Musk says is inline with or less than expectations, expect a selloff in TSLA stock.  Whatever happens to TSLA stock will bleed into other AI stocks.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Economics

Hotter Inflation But Jobless Claims Cushion The Blow – Selling In Nvidia And AI Stocks

On Wednesday, October 9th, the U.S. markets closed higher, driven by Federal Reserve meeting minutes showing a &#8220;substantial majority&#8221; supported a half-point rate cut, easing investor concerns. Traders also anticipated key inflation data and the upcoming third-quarter earnings season.
Tech stocks saw mixed movements, with Google parent Alphabet down 1.5% amid antitrust concerns.
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41257938/fed-minutes-reveal-heated-debate-over-september-interest-rate-move-traders-trim-november-easing-" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fed Minutes Reveal Heated Debate Over September Interest Rate Move: Traders Trim November Easing Bets</a>
In economic data, U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1% month-over-month to $904.8 billion in August, below the preliminary 0.2% estimate and matching the revised 0.2% increase from the previous month.
The S&amp;P 500 closed mostly higher, led by gains in healthcare, information technology, and industrials, while utilities and communication services ended lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.03% and closed at 42,512.00. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.71% at 5,792.04, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.60%, finishing the session at 18,291.62.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.29% at 39,414.50, led by gains in the Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic, Marine Transport, and Precision Instruments sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.43% and ended the day at 8,223.00, led by gains in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded higher by 0.08% at 25,000.40 and Nifty 500 up 0.02% at 25,000.40.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 1.32% to close at 3,301.93, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 1.06%, finishing the day at 3,997.79.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index was up 2.98% and closed at 21,251.98.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.24%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.19%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.23%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.08%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.50% at $74.35/bbl, and Brent was up 1.40% at $77.66/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices increased, supported by increased demand from Hurricane Milton&#8217;s impact in Florida and concerns over Middle East supply risks. Tensions between Israel and Iran kept investors cautious despite demand concerns and higher U.S. crude inventories.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.90% at $2.636.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.30% at $2,633.90, Silver gained 0.54% to $30.832, and Copper rose 0.09% to $4.4030.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.10%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.17%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index slid 0.02% to 102.90, the USD/JPY was down 0.25% to 148.91, and the USD/AUD fell 0.07% to 1.4874.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar held near a seven-week high as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data. The yen slipped as markets remain skeptical about further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Gains, Europe Dips While Crude Oil Surges On Supply Risk - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-09_09h31_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Google Breakup?</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-google-breakup-nvidia-ai-summit-goog-mc-10092024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of GOOG stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>One of the concerns about big tech is that big tech has profited from monopolistic practices, and as such, the government will move against big tech. So far, these concerns have been limited to smart money. The momo crowd has been oblivious and aggressively buying big tech, running the stocks up higher and higher.  The reason is that the momo crowd does not do much analysis. The momo crowd is driven by momentum and hopium.</li>
<li>The news is that the Department of Justice (DOJ), in a court filing, has put the breakup of Google on the table.&nbsp; Previously, the judge had ruled that Google is a monopolist and established its monopoly with illegal practices.</li>
<li>The chart shows that there has not been much of a reaction to the news.</li>
<li>The chart shows that previously there was some downward reaction to the news that a judge ordered Google to open the app store to competition.</li>
<li>Google faces a separate lawsuit threatening the breakup of its online advertising business.</li>
<li>The chart shows that volume was low on the threat of a breakup and also on the order to open the app store. This indicates that so far the stock market does not believe the news will harm Google. This is for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>There is flawed analysis in the market that the sum of the parts is more than the current stock price. In The Arora Report analysis, the reason that the belief in the stock market is wrong is because the parts as separate companies will be restricted from continuing illegal monopolistic practices.</li>
<li>The election is only a few weeks away. The belief in the stock market is that both Trump and Harris will be friendly to big tech.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) stock has staged a strong move leading to and in response to its AI Summit. However, the resistance zone is around $140, only $6 away. If NVDA stock breaks above the resistance zone, it will be a big positive for the stock market, especially AI stocks. On the other hand, if this rally fails to break above the resistance zone, it will be a negative.</li>
<li>There are rumors of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah has publicly endorsed ceasefire efforts. This is leading to selling in oil, gold, and Treasuries.</li>
<li>FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
Stocks in China experienced another sell-off. More stimulus news is expected on Saturday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), and GOOG.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Tech

Google Breakup On The Table, Nvidia AI Summit Moves The Stock But Resistance Ahead

On Tuesday, October 8th, U.S. markets closed in green as investors bought into technology stocks, benefiting from a slight easing in Treasury yields, which reduced concerns about rising borrowing costs.
According to economic data, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August, below the expected 91.7. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $70.4 billion in August, the lowest in five months, from $78.9 billion in July.
Most S&amp;P sectors gained, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services, while the materials sector declined as metal prices fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.30% and closed at 42,080.37. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.97% at 5,751.13, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%, finishing the session at 18,182.92.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 1.01% at 39,299.50, led by gains in the Banking, Insurance and Finance &amp; Investment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.13% and ended the day at 8,187.40, led by gains in the IT, Telecoms Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was trading lower by 0.03% at 25,005.90, while the Nifty 500 was up 0.44% at 23,615.55.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite plunged 6.62% to close at 3,258.86, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 slid 7.05%, finishing the day at 3,955.98.</li>
<li>Chinese and Hong Kong stocks tumbled Wednesday as investors took profits from a recent rally, disappointed by the lack of new stimulus measures. Key indexes in China posted their largest daily losses since 2020, with property and tourism stocks among the biggest losers.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index dropped 1.38% to close at 20,637.24.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.02%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was up 0.11%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.12%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.52%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.88% at $74.19/bbl, and Brent was up 0.79% at $77.80/bbl.</li>
<li>Despite weak demand expectations, oil prices ticked higher, fueled by Middle East tensions and anticipation of China&#8217;s fiscal policy updates. Brent and WTI futures rebounded after a sharp decline as investors remained cautious about regional escalations and potential impacts on oil demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 1.13% at $2.702.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.03% at $2,636.05, Silver gained 0.99% to $30.913, and Copper slid 0.53% to $4.4330.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.18%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.08% to 102.62, the USD/JPY rose 0.32% to 148.66, and the USD/AUD gained 0.21% to 1.4848.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

China Markets Plunge, Europe Edges Higher, Crude Oil Maintains Premium After Selloff - Global Markets Today While Us Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-08_08h03_18.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Biggest Stock Moves Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-rising-yields-neutral-rate-tlt-mc-10082024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>TLT moves inverse to the yield. The higher the yield goes, the lower TLT falls.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move up in TLT in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.</li>
<li>The chart shows a breakout above the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed cut rates.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the spot on Arora call was made on the same day that the Fed cut interest rates. The Arora call was made in advance of the Fed announcement, giving investors more time to act. The Arora call was that yields were likely to rise on long bonds, sending TLT lower. The Arora call was a contrary call squarely going against the prevailing wisdom at that time. At that time, the following described the landscape.
<ul>
<li>Technically oriented investors were buying TLT because of the technical breakout.</li>
<li>Macro investors were buying TLT because of the rate cut. Going into the Fed meeting the consensus was still a 25 bps cut, even though the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut was gaining steam.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom in the market was that TLT would go up.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout failed, and TLT has experienced a significant drop since the Arora call.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TLT is now getting closer to the top support zone.</li>
<li>The down move in TLT is remarkable because during this time, the money has been flowing into the safety of long Treasury bonds due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the Middle East conflict escalation, TLT would have already fallen into the top support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TLT is oversold. An oversold ETF often bounces.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, unless the economic data changes or a war breaks out, or the Fed changes its course, any rally in TLT has a 70% probability of failing. The reason behind this prediction is that irrespective of who is elected, Trump or Harris, the government's borrowing and spending is going to go up. Higher borrowing means a larger supply of Treasuries.  A larger supply of Treasuries indicates a higher yield on long bonds. If the U.S. has a divided government after the election, the borrowing will be less than it will be if either party sweeps. In the event of a one party sweep, TLT can potentially fall to the bottom support zone.</li>
<li>Investors should also pay attention to the10 year Treasury yield.  The 10 year Treasury yield is important because it is the reference rate for computing appropriate PE ratios in most models. In general, the rule is higher interest rates mean lower PE ratios. There are two reasons for this:
<ul>
<li>When interest rates are higher, the value of future earnings discounted to present is lower.</li>
<li>When bonds start paying higher interest rates, they offer more competition to stocks.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The yield on 10 year Treasuries has risen from 3.68% on the day the Fed cut the interest rate to 4.031% as of this writing.</li>
<li>Contrary to expectations in the market, mortgage rates have also risen since the Fed rate cut.</li>
<li>Investors should also pay close attention to the neutral rate. The neutral rate is the Fed funds rate that is neither restrictive or expansionary.
<ul>
<li>In addition to the neutral rate, investors should also pay attention to the pace at which interest rates come down to the neutral rate.</li>
<li>The Fed is indicating that the neutral rate might be around 3.4% in 2025. Previously, the Fed was pointing to a long run neutral rate of 2.5%.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom in the market is that the neutral rate is in the range of 2.5% &#8211; 3.5%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Regarding the neutral rate, The Arora Report has another contrary call. Unless economic data substantially changes or geopolitical conditions substantially change, the likely neutral rate is higher than the market consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, the likely neutral rate is 3.25 &#8211; 4.25%. </li>
<li>The foregoing discussion on the long bond rate, 10 year rate, and neutral rate is very important because in view of The Arora Report analysis and contrary calls, earnings will have to be very robust for the stock market to advance from here and sustain at a higher level.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, implied volatility of options on popular individual stocks around earnings indicates that the biggest moves after earnings in recent years in individual stocks are ahead. This has two practical implications for investors:
<ul>
<li>This will provide more opportunities for prudent investors who are set up to systematically take advantage of volatility in a proven way instead of being afraid of volatility.</li>
<li>Some of the existing positions in portfolios may be hit hard. To balance it with stocks that move up significantly, it is important to make sure the portfolio is properly diversified.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, prior to the jobs report, the probability of a 50 bps cut after the next Fed meeting was about 30%. Now, the probability has dropped to 5%.</li>
<li>Based on The Arora Report proprietary sentiment indicator, sentiment in the stock market is very positive.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 at 6000 is the magnet for traders.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Based on The Arora Report's proprietary methodology, numerous short squeezes are taking place, adding to the upside moves in individual stocks.</li>
<li>There is renewed excitement in AI stocks. The main reason is that NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) AI Summit is taking place.</li>
<li>There is also buying ahead of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) analyst meeting about AI on October 10.&nbsp; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPE#NYSE">HPE</a>) will also highlight its progress on AI during its analyst day on October 10.</li>
<li>Adding to excitement in the stock market is the upcoming Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) robotaxi event on October 10.</li>
<li>Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on October 10. Headline CPI consensus is 0.1%.  Core CPI consensus is 0.2%.</li>
<li>Hurricane Milton is barreling towards Florida.&nbsp; Insurance stocks such as Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UVE#NYSE">UVE</a>), Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HRTG#NYSE">HRTG</a>), and HCI Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCI#NYSE">HCI</a>) are seeing selling pressure.&nbsp; Generator manufacturer Generac Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GNRC#NYSE">GNRC</a>) is seeing buying pressure, so are roofing stocks such as Beacon Roofing Supply Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BECN#NASDAQ">BECN</a>) and Owens Corning (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OC#NYSE">OC</a>).</li>
<li>Volatility index (VIX) continues to stay high on anxiety about the Middle East. VIX is elevated at 22 as of this writing.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. &nbsp; Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China Disappoints</h3>
We have been sharing with you day by day the epic rally in Chinese stocks and the reasons behind it. Today, at the beginning, hopes were high as Mainland China investors returned after a one week holiday.  Mainland benchmark stock index CSI 300 jumped 11% at the open but subsequently lost some of the gains, finishing up 5.9%.  In spite of the pullback, CSI 300 is up about 30% over the last month.
In Hong Kong, Hang Seng lost 9.41%. This is the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Stocks in Hong Kong were trading during the mainland holiday. The reason for the disappointment is that investors were counting on the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to offer concrete stimulus measures at a briefing. However, the chair of NDRC Zheng Shanjie did not offer new concrete stimulus steps. This disappointed traders.
As full disclosure, for those who understand the China risk, The Arora Report&#8217;s plan continues to be to buy Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) when they fall in the recently updated buy zones in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVDA, and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

BECN

GNRC

HRTG

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Rising Yields And Higher Neutral Rate May Spoil The Party, Biggest Stock Moves In Years Ahead

On Monday, October 7th, the U.S. markets closed lower as rising Treasury yields and concerns over the Middle East conflict&#8217;s effect on oil prices dampened sentiment. Additionally, regulatory challenges for Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, along with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cut decisions, weighed on the market.
Investors are also bracing for Hurricane Milton and awaiting key economic data and earnings reports later this week.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell on Monday, led by consumer discretionary, utilities, and communication services, while energy gained as crude surged on Middle East supply concerns.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.94% and closed at 41,954.24. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 0.96% at 5,695.94, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.18%, finishing the session at 17,923.90.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session lower by 1.26% at 38,907.50, led by losses in the Transportation Equipment, Precision Instruments, and Railway &amp; Bus sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.35% and ended the day at 8,176.90, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials, and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded higher by 0.72% at 24,974.65, and Nifty 500 was up 1.11% at 23,437.75.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite surged 4.59% to close at 3,489.78, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 jumped 5.93%, finishing the day at 4,256.10.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s markets initially surged to two-year highs after the National Day holiday but lost steam as investors were disappointed by the lack of substantial new stimulus measures. Despite China expressing confidence in achieving its growth target, the absence of detailed fiscal support dampened market optimism.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index dropped 9.41% to close at 20,926.79, marking its sharpest decline since 2008. The fall followed a weeks-long rally as investors grew disappointed by China&#8217;s limited stimulus measures. This prompted profit-taking and fund reallocations to mainland markets with more direct government support.        </li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.74%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was down 0.34%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC slid 0.89%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded lower by 1.18%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.88% at $75.70/bbl, and Brent was down 1.80% at $79.45/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices declined as fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East subsided. The market remains on edge, awaiting Israel&#8217;s response to Iranian missile attacks, but profit-taking and disappointment over China&#8217;s modest stimulus measures added pressure.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was up 0.47% at $2.758.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.29% at $2,676.80, Silver fell 0.62% to $32.193, and Copper slid 0.33% to $4.5585.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.20%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.44%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.16% to 102.37, the USD/JPY was down 0.21% to 147.87, and the USD/AUD gained 0.44% to 1.4876.</li>
<li>The dollar retreated from seven-week highs as investors recalibrated expectations for U.S. rate cuts, even as ongoing Middle East tensions supported its safe-haven appeal.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

BOIL

China Rallies To 2-Year High, Europe Slips, Dollar Softens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-07_08h44_16.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Potential Israeli Attack</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-potential-israeli-attack-on-iran-uso-mc-10072024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of oil ETF United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when Iran retaliated by sending about 180 ballistic missiles. The attack was in response to Israel killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.</li>
<li>The chart shows that oil has continued to rise as anxiety builds about potential Israeli retaliation.</li>
<li>This morning, the anxiety has spilled into the stock market.</li>
<li>From our sources, it appears that Israel sees a once in a generation opportunity to attack Iran's nuclear installations.&nbsp; The Biden administration and European governments are trying their best to restrain Israel.</li>
<li>This morning, concern in the stock market is building that if Israel is restrained from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel may attack Iran's oil infrastructure.&nbsp; </li>
<li>After Friday's strong jobs report, the concern is that if oil prices also rise, the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates.&nbsp; The stock market's current valuation is based on lower interest rates.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In the early trade, there is selling pressure due to Middle East concerns.</li>
<li>The yield on 10 year Treasuries has crossed 4%.&nbsp; This is important because stock market bulls were hoping for yields to fall to about 3.5% by now.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/israel-100324/">click here</a> to see the Morning Capsule from October 3 for details.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative inApple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Stock Market Investors Nervous About Potential Israeli Attack On Iran

On Friday, October 4th, U.S. markets closed higher, as the Dow closed at a record high and the Nasdaq gained over 1% after a stronger-than-expected jobs report eased concerns about economic weakness. U.S. job gains surged, reducing the likelihood of further aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.
According to economic data, the U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, beating the 147,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by consumer discretionary, financials, and communication services, while real estate and utilities fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.81% and closed at 42,352.75. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.90% at 5,751.07, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.22%, finishing the session at 18,137.85.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Monday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 2.05% at 39,405.50, led by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic and Power sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.68% at 8,205.40, led by gains in the IT, Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was trading lower by 0.88% at 24,794.95, and Nifty 500 was down 1.52% at 23,178.45.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.60%, ending the day at 23,099.78.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.01%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX was down 0.20%.</li>
<li>France's CAC was up 0.17%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.35%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.49% at $76.24/bbl, and Brent was up 2.15% at $79.75/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 1.16% at $2.821.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.34% at $2,676.80, Silver fell 0.62% to $32.193, and Copper slid 0.33% to $4.5585.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.44%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.66%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 102.60, the USD/JPY was down 0.21% to 148.38, and the USD/AUD gained 0.06% to 1.4734.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Mixed, Crude Rises 2.5% – Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-04_08h45_45.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Barn Burner Jobs Report</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-spy-mc-10042024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is rallying on the jobs report.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The just released jobs report is a barn burner. The report is a lot stronger than the consensus.&nbsp; Here are the details of the jobs report:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 254K vs. 135K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 223K vs. 125K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.1% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>At a minimum, this data point shows that Powell could have been wrong. When Powell cut interest rates by 50 bps, he explained it away by predicting labor weakness. The just released jobs report shows that there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>Before and after the 50 bps rate cut,  we shared with readers The Arora Report analysis that the data did not support a 50 bps rate cut. Today's jobs report clearly proves that The Arora Report analysis was correct and the Fed may have made a mistake.  </li>
<li>Bonds are falling on the strong report.</li>
<li>Stocks are seeing extremely aggressive buying after the report. In the short term, it is bullish in that Powell gave the stock  market a big gift of a 50 bps cut predicting labor weakness, but there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>After the jobs report, AI stocks are ripping. In the early trade, buying is extremely aggressive in AI stocks.  </li>
<li>This data is going to be ammunition for those who have been saying that the 50 bps rate cut was designed to help Harris win the election even though the Fed continues to publicly say that the Fed does not consider politics. Keep in mind, Trump has said that he would not reappoint Powell.</li>
<li>Adding to the optimism is that dock workers have suspended their strike.</li>
<li>In the longer term, this jobs data raises the probability that inflation will not come down to the Fed's 2% target and the Fed will once again be proven wrong.</li>
<li>As a note of caution, this is only one piece of data. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching additional pieces of new data as it comes. This is exactly what prudent investors should do.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index yesterday came at 54.9 vs. 51.6 consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, this data also shows that the economy is strong.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on strong jobs data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AI Stocks Ripping, Barn Burner Jobs Report - Could Powell Be Wrong?

On Wednesday, October 3rd, U.S. markets closed lower as investors braced for the September payrolls report, which could influence future interest rate decisions. The slight rise in jobless claims signaled labor market softening, while escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, adding to the cautious sentiment and prompting some profit-taking after recent gains.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000, slightly above estimates, while the S&amp;P Global services PMI was revised lower to 55.2 in September, down from 55.7 in August. The composite PMI also dipped to 54.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors ended in the red, with consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate stocks leading losses, while energy and information technology sectors rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.44% and closed at 42,011.59. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 0.17% at 5,699.94, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.04%, finishing the session at 17,918.48.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.16% at 38,613.50, led by gains in the Precision Instruments, Insurance, and Railway &amp; Bus sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day lower by 0.67% at 8,150.00, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials and IT sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 closed lower by 0.79% at 25,049.85, and the Nifty 500 was down 0.84% to 23,556.85.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.82%, ending the day at 22,736.87.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.21%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX was up 0.33%.</li>
<li>France's CAC rose 0.41%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.45%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.99% at $74.47/bbl, and Brent was up 1.00% at $78.41/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose driven by fears of Middle East tensions disrupting crude flows despite ample global supply. Brent and WTI crude gained around 9% this week as Israel-Iran tensions and Libya's production rebound influenced market dynamics.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.24% at $2.963.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.03% at $2,678.45, Silver fell 0.52% to $32.290, and Copper gained 0.21% to $4.5627.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.30%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.10% to 101.89, the USD/JPY was down 0.31% to 146.47, and the USD/AUD declined 0.05% to 1.4610.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Geopolitical Concerns Mount, Crude Oil Gains, Asia And Europe Markets Mixed - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-03_08h44_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cognitive Dissonance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-bonds-israel-strike-iran-tlt-mc-10032024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed rate cut was announced.</li>
<li>At the time the Fed rate cut was announced, this was the landscape:
<ul>
<li>Wall Street firms were tripping over themselves to rush their clients into buying long bonds.</li>
<li>The momo crowd was aggressively buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Technically, long bonds had broken out.</li>
<li>Trading services were sending signals to their members to go all in on buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Almost everyone was predicting that bond yields would fall much lower.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Long bonds move inversely to the yield.&nbsp; When yield goes higher, long bonds fall.</li>
<li>On the morning before the Fed rate cut announcement, The Arora Report made a bold call contrary to the prevailing wisdom.  The call was inline with prior calls that long bond yields may rise and long bonds may fall after the rate cut.  We wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that long bonds have fallen and yields have risen.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout above the resistance zone failed.&nbsp; Ironically, this breakout was the reason legions of investors who rely only on traditional technical analysis bought long bonds on the breakout. To make matters worse, most of such bond trading positions are taken on high leverage.&nbsp; Due to high leverage, these positions now have substantial losses.
<ul>
<li>This is a cautionary tale that illustrates why investors should not rely solely on one form of analysis such as traditional technical analysis. Investors should rely on systems, such as The Arora Report system, that synergistically combine in an optimized manner the best elements of the following:
<ul>
<li>Macro analysis</li>
<li>Fundamental analysis</li>
<li>Technical analysis</li>
<li>Quantitative analysis</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Money is flowing into the safety of Treasuries due to anxiety about potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the escalation in the Middle East, TLT would have been much lower now.</li>
<li>Going forward, investors need to remember the probability adjusted risk reward ratio in long bonds is not great.  Long bonds will work only if there is a major recession or a major war breaks out.  However, investors need to remember that the stock market is counting on no recession. Investors are suffering from cognitive dissonance – they are buying stocks believing that there will not be a recession, they are buying bonds believing there will be a recession.</li>
<li>If inflation starts rising again, investors in long bonds will experience major losses.&nbsp; Investors are very short sighted and are also losing track of the fact that the election is not far away.&nbsp; Both Trump and Harris are committed to more reckless borrowing and more reckless spending.&nbsp; This will increase the supply of Treasuries.&nbsp; How can a higher supply of Treasuries be good for long bonds?&nbsp; The answer is that it is not good for long bonds.</li>
<li>On the positive side, NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), CEO Jensen Huang says Blackwell production is in full swing and the demand for Blackwell is insane.</li>
<li>Also on the positive side, OpenAI has raised $6.6B in new funds at a valuation of $157B.&nbsp; This valuation is significantly higher than the last round.</li>
<li>Anxiety is building among investors regarding the upcoming strike on Iran by Israel.&nbsp; There are reports that Israel wants to attack Iran's nuclear installations, but Biden is trying to restrain Israel.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 225K vs. 223K consensus.&nbsp; Jobless claims are not showing weakness in the jobs picture.&nbsp; Powell saw weakness in the jobs picture, and that was one of his justifications for the 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; More information will become available about the jobs picture tomorrow when the official jobs report is released at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; The jobs report has the potential to be a major market moving event.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; The consensus is 51.6.&nbsp; This data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
The stock buying stampede in Hong Kong is slowing.  Mainland markets are closed.  Prudent investors are taking advantage of the rally to sell.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report&#8217;s plan continues to be to buy on a dip.  The Arora Report has new buy zones for Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">India</h3>
Growth concerns are emerging in India.  Money is beginning to flow out of India and into China.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report has new signals on India ETF WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>), VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>), and iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

GLIN

SMIN

Investors Suffering Cognitive Dissonance, Insane Demand For Nvidia Chips, Anxiety Builds About Israel And Iran

Economic activity in the U.S. services sector continued to expand in September, as the Services PMI reached 54.9%, its highest level since February 2023, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/pmi">marking a robust recovery</a>.
According to the Services ISM Report On Business released on Thursday, this increase of 3.4 percentage points from August's 51.5% reflects strong growth in business activity and new orders. 
The report raises concerns about how it may influence upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the services sector expanding for 49 of the last 52 months, the data suggests resilient demand, which could influence the Fed's decision on the size of the anticipated November cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.6% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in November, with a 34.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut.
Also on Thursday, the S&amp;P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 55.2 in September. That&#8217;s slightly down from 55.7 in August. This marked the 20th consecutive month of expansion in services activity. New orders continued to rise solidly, although input prices increased at the joint-fastest pace in a year, driven by salary pressures and higher costs for manufactured goods.
Employment dropped for the second month, but companies remained cautious about hiring due to strong cost pressures. Business confidence declined sharply to its lowest level since October 2022 as concerns about an economic slowdown grew.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">September ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Services PMI rose to 54.9% in September, the highest reading since February 2023.</li>
<li>Business activity expanded significantly, with the Business Activity Index climbing to 59.9%.</li>
<li>The New Orders Index increased to 59.4%, up from 53% in August.</li>
<li>The Employment Index contracted to 48.1%, down from 50.2% in August.</li>
<li>The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion, hitting 52.1%.</li>
<li>Panelists expressed concerns over political uncertainty and labor costs, despite positive supply chain improvements.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Experts React To September Data</h3>
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, highlighted the continued expansion in services. "Twelve industries reported growth in September, up two from the 10 industries reporting growth in August,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion in September, indicating slower delivery performance,&#8221; Miller added. &#8220;The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists' comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month&#8221;
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said, &#8220;U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years.&#8221; 
Still, he also noted that &#8220;companies have become increasingly concerned about the outlook… with business confidence slumping in September amid uncertainty caused by the upcoming election as well as perceptions of rising recession risks.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Markets were trading lower on Thursday following the data release.
The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was trading 0.5% lower.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), was up 0.31%
Other major asset movements following the ISM Services PMI print included: 
<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), tracking long-dated Treasuries, was down 0.63%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Econ #s

Services Sector Surges In September, Raising Questions For Fed's November Rate Cut

On Wednesday, October 2nd, U.S. markets closed slightly higher, as the S&amp;P 500 ended flat. Technology stocks gained, driven by Nvidia, while concerns over Middle East tensions and upcoming U.S. labor data kept investors cautious. Tesla shares fell, and attention shifted to Friday&#8217;s key labor report.
In economic data, U.S. private businesses added 143,000 workers in September, surpassing August&#8217;s revised 103,000 and beating market estimates of 124,000, according to ADP.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by consumer stocks, while energy and tech sectors closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.09% and closed at 42,196.52. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.01% at 5,709.54, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.08%, finishing the session at 17,925.12.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 2.01% at 38,552.50, led by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic and Real Estate sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.09% at 8,205.20, led by gains in the A-REITs, Telecoms Services and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed lower by 2.12% at 25,250.10, and the Nifty 500 was down 2.13% to 23,755.45.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng slid 1.47%, ending the day at 22,113.51.</li>
<li>Global stocks dipped as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel&#8217;s bombing of Beirut, raised concerns about oil supply disruptions. Weak business data from Europe and mixed performances in Asia contributed to the market downturn. Despite these pressures, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei rose, driven by the new prime minister&#8217;s commitment to low rates.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.68%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was down 0.57%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.85%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.23%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.07% at $71.57/bbl, and Brent was up 1.91% at $75.31/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose due to concerns over a potential widening Middle East conflict, which could disrupt crude supplies despite strong global supply levels. Israel&#8217;s airstrikes on Beirut heightened geopolitical tensions, but swelling U.S. crude inventories suggested the market remains well-supplied.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was up 1.00% at $2.915.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.15% at $2,665.30, Silver fell 0.60% to $31.730, and Copper declined 1.11% to $4.5970.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Dow futures were down 0.33%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.46%.</li>
<li>U.S. stock futures dropped amid Middle East tensions and anticipation of the jobs report. Oil prices rose, while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41156870/levi-strauss-considers-dockers-sale-what-this-means-for-the-iconic-denim-brand" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Levi Strauss</a> (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEVI#NYSE">LEVI</a>) and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41145803/tesla-q3-deliveries-step-in-the-right-direction-analyst-says-more-heavy-lifting-nee" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla</a> (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) saw premarket declines.</li>
</ul>
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.91, the USD/JPY rose 0.27% to 146.88, and the USD/AUD gained 0.56% to 1.4605.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

LEVI

Asia Mixed, Europe Markets Fall While Crude Rises On Middle East Tensions – Global Markets Today While US Slept

Amid the fallout from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">Iran&#8217;s missile attack</a> against Israel on Tuesday, market observers are closely watching the unfolding conflict and its possible effects on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">gold prices</a>.
What Happened: Iran fired 100 to 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The attack came following several Israeli strikes on the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. 
Israel has been at war with Hamas, also <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/07/39941704/netanyahu-addresses-us-congress-emphasizes-alliance-against-iran-in-middle-east-give-us-the-tool">supported by Iran</a>, since Oct. 7, 2023, following a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Hamas terrorist attack</a> that left over 1,000 Israelis dead. Israel&#8217;s subsequent military campaign against Hamas in Gaza resulted in a reported death toll of over 40,000, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/gaza-death-toll-tops-41638-after-51-killed-past-day?nid=394896&amp;topic=Israel%2527s%2520war%2520on%2520Gaza&amp;fid=532496">according</a> to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Iran&#8217;s most significant geopolitical rival, Saudi Arabia, has normalized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/23/09/35005546/how-the-us-saudi-defense-pact-could-reshape-middle-east-geopolitics">relations with Israel</a> in recent years with American support. The Iranians and Saudis have already engaged in proxy warfare in Yemen, among other countries, for decades. The most recent developments, however, point to a possible direct warfare between Middle Eastern spheres of influence.
The United States and its allies are particularly concerned with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40868101/us-and-allies-worried-amid-reports-of-russia-potentially-sharing-nuclear-secrets-with-iran">Iran&#8217;s nuclear development</a>.
Impact On Gold: Investors flock to gold during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Financial markets might experience heightened volatility during such a conflict, with investors seeking safer alternatives. A confrontation between Israel and Iran would likely increase demand for gold, driving up prices.
Further conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, leading to higher global energy prices, which might contribute to inflation. Since gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, this could further boost demand for gold.
While it is yet unclear whether Iran&#8217;s attack on Israel will escalate to something larger, any news seemingly pointing in that direction will send gold prices higher.
Gold Price Action: The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>) are among the largest gold ETFs.
While gold prices moved higher following Iran&#8217;s military action on Tuesday, gains quickly subsided. The SPDR Gold Trust is trading just 0.44% higher than it did on Monday.
Gold&#8217;s muted price action could indicate one of two things. Investors may already have priced in the likelihood of war breaking out in the Middle East. Thus, Tuesday&#8217;s missile attack might not have surprised market observers, who are already weary of possible warfare.
Alternatively, investors could be skeptical of the likelihood of the conflict between Iran and Israel escalating further. Several scares in Middle Eastern relations in recent years have not amounted to large-scale conflict.
Regardless, gold has had a remarkable year, hovering near an all-time high price. The commodity is trading 28% higher in 2024 and has increased 44.17% in the last 12 months.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41143156/oil-prices-spike-energy-stocks-jump-after-irans-missile-attack-on-israel-what-investors-need-to-know">Oil Prices Spike, Energy Stocks Jump After Iran&#8217;s Missile Attack On Israel: What Investors Need To Know</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Global

GLDM

Investors Look To Gold As Middle East Tensions Rise: How Israel-Iran Conflict Could Impact Prices

United Nations Security Council members convened for an emergency session Wednesday in New York to address Israel, Lebanon, Iran and whether an all-out war in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/middle-east">Middle East is preventable</a>.
What Happened: Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon, in his remarks to the UN Security Council, called Iran&#8217;s missile strike the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">&#8220;largest&#8221; in Israel&#8217;s history</a>. 
&#8220;The council must understand the situation Israel is forced to live in. We are under attack,&#8221; Danon said, citing how holy sites were targeted. 
Israeli defense systems intercepted most of the 200 missiles Tuesday as they prepped for ground operations, the <a href="https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates">Associated Press</a> reported.
&#8220;The world watched silently as Iran funded and directed attacks against us for the past year, arming and training their proxies for decades,&#8221; Danon added. &#8220;Now the world must step up. Iran must pay a heavy price for this attack. Anything less is complicity.&#8221;
As of early Wednesday afternoon, the meeting remained in session. See video below.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="LIVE: UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East" width="500" height="375" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1VyjPJclLAI?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41143156/oil-prices-spike-energy-stocks-jump-after-irans-missile-attack-on-israel-what-investors-need-to-know">Oil Prices Spike, Energy Stocks Jump After Iran&#8217;s Missile Attack On Israel — What Investors Need To Know</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bracing For Further Escalation</h3>
The UN meeting is taking place while Israeli troops&nbsp;battle Hezbollah militants&nbsp;inside Lebanon, making good on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu&#8216;s&nbsp;vow to retaliate, per <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/israel-vows-retaliation-for-massive-iranian-missile-attack">Bloomberg</a>.
The Israeli army Wednesday suffered at least eight fatalities since the ground operation began, CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1rx3x98000e3b6qp2nmm7pn">reported</a> citing Israel Defense Forces. 
Iran launched the attack against Israel following the recent killing of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/41079860/israel-tightens-grip-hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-killed">Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah</a>. 
Since its formation in the early 1980s, Hezbollah — which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization — has received substantial support from Tehran, which views the group as an ally in advancing its influence in the Middle East.
The White House promised consequences for Iran's attack on Israel. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden reiterated at the start of a meeting with officials: &#8220;Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.&#8221;
Market Reaction: Following the missile attacks from Iran on Israel, plus Tuesday&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/10/41139919/private-sector-job-gains-outpace-forecasts-in-september-as-us-adds-143-000-jobs">job and economic data</a>, major stock indices dropped. As of early Tuesday afternoon:
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 was down slightly by 0.08%. </li>
<li>The Dow Jones was down by 0.02%. </li>
<li>The Nasdaq was up by 0.09%. </li>
</ul>
At last check, ETFs that track the indexes were up:
<ul>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.01% at $568.56 Tuesday.</li>
<li>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) was down slightly at $421.23.</li>
<li>The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is up 0.22% to $482.33.</li>
</ul>
&#8220;Financial markets have reacted as one would expect to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a bout of risk aversion sweeping through asset classes in the past 24 hours,&#8221; said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy and global financial services at Ebury.
Equity markets are trading lower and, in currencies, the safe-havens have outperformed most of their peers, he adds. This includes the U.S. dollar, which remains buoyed following some hawkish <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240930a.htm">comments</a> from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday.
The conflict is also causing broader concerns for inflation and central bank policy. Higher oil prices could undermine the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s efforts to control inflation, potentially delaying future interest rate cuts, per <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/stock-markets-slump-oil-jumps-as-iran-attack-sparks-fear-of-all-out-war-in-mideast/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Times of Israel</a>.
What To Look For: Ryan says investors are &#8220;rightly fearful&#8221; that Israel&#8217;s retaliation could disrupt oil supplies. After all, Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. 
The price of gold and oil both spiked higher after the attack. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was trading slightly higher on the day at $72.13 at last check while the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) is down 0.11% to $245.33 Wednesday. 
&#8220;The wider implication for markets is the rising possibility of a sharp move higher in global oil futures, and another period of elevated energy prices and consumer inflation,&#8221; Ryan says.
The ramifications will not be &#8220;anywhere near as severe&#8221; as those that followed Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, Ryan adds. &#8220;So far, at least, the moves in markets have been relatively contained.&#8221;
Defense ETFs, as of Wednesday afternoon, were trending up:
<ul>
<li>IShares U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#BATS">ITA</a>) rose 0.37% to $151.91.</li>
<li>Invesco Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PPA#NYSE">PPA</a>) is up 0.15% to $116.10. </li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XAR#NYSE">XAR</a>) is up 0.67% to $159.98. </li>
</ul>
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41112728/us-boosts-military-presence-in-middle-east-deploys-fighter-squadrons-amid-rising-tensions-with-iran">US Boosts Military Presence In Middle East As Tensions Spike With Iran</a> </li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock.

Analyst Color

Sector ETFs

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Politics

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund

Markets Turn Risk-Off As Israel, Iran Clash: Investors 'Rightly Fearful' Of Oil Disruption, Strategist Says

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-02_09h01_16.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">The Power Of Missile Defense</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-raytheon-missile-defense-iron-dome-patriot-rtx-mc-10022024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Rtx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of RTX stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Iran fired about 180 ballistic missiles on Israel.  Israel and the U.S. were able to intercept most of these missiles with missile defense systems. These missiles reached Israel in 12 minutes. The defense was impressive considering there were no fatalities.</li>
<li>What happened in Israel yesterday shows the power of missile defense systems and illustrates the opportunity for investors in missile defense stocks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, RTX is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. RTX is The Arora Report's favorite missile defense stock.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that RTX has broken out on the success of missile defense in Israel.</li>
<li>RTX is a joint developer of the Iron Dome used in Israel. RTX is best known for its Patriot Air And Missile Defense System.  RTX also produces several other missile defense systems and aircraft engines.</li>
<li>RTX entered The Arora Report portfolio when the stock experienced a massive drop on the news of cracks in Pratt &amp; Whitney engines. The Arora Report uses over 50 different strategies. RTX belongs to the strategy of buying a good company where the stock is down due to a fixable technical problem.</li>
<li>The chart shows the power of buy zones.  Buy zones allow investors to buy stocks and ETFs when the probability adjusted risk reward is more favorable.  Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin in investing. Smart money focuses on risk adjusted returns. In contrast, the momo crowd focuses only on rewards – the result is that the momo crowd goes through volatile cycles of making money and losing money, and in the end, accumulating far less than smart money.</li>
<li>The chart illustrates the power of a billionaire and hedge fund technique known as a trade around position.&nbsp; A trade around position can dramatically increase profits and reduce risks.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the RTX trade around position was started at an average of $80.70. The position has over 50% gain as of this writing.  The trade around position is separate and distinct from the core position.</li>
<li>Peace is not about to break out in the world.&nbsp; As such, all investors should consider a defense stock or ETF in their portfolio.</li>
<li>For those interested in ETFs, The Arora Report&#8217;s ETF of choice is iShares US Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#BATS">ITA</a>).&nbsp; As full disclosure, ITA is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Automatic Data Processing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADP#NASDAQ">ADP</a>) is the largest private payroll processor in the country.&nbsp; ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the employment picture ahead of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday.&nbsp; ADP employment change came at 143K vs. 120K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.</li>
<li>Previously, JOLTS job openings came at 8.04M, higher than expectations.</li>
<li>&nbsp;ISM Manufacturing Index came at 47.2 vs. 47.4 consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying Stampede</h3>
Stocks are experiencing a once in a century buying stampede in Hong Kong.  Stocks in Hong Kong rose 7%. Property developers rose 47%, and broker stocks rose 35%.  As full disclosure, Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in &nbsp;Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Opportunity In Missile Defense Stocks, Once In A Century Buying Stampede In Hong Kong

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