iShares Trust iShares MSCI Ireland ETF (ARCA: EIRL)

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iShares Trust iShares MSCI Ireland ETF

iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF

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The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index. It is composed of Irish equities. The fund is non-diversified.

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Investors on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/wall-street">Wall Street</a> are bleeding red, white and blue, pouring money into American equities already trading higher than their European counterparts. 
The Data: A <a href="https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1869029356884078993">post</a> on X from Mike Zaccardi relayed data from the Bank of America fund manager survey.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">BofA FMS: 4th biggest overweight of US relative to Eurozone equities since 2001 <a href="https://t.co/zouKCD0Zxb">pic.twitter.com/zouKCD0Zxb</a>
&mdash; Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT &#x1f356; (@MikeZaccardi) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1869029356884078993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The survey found fund managers&#8217; portfolios are significantly overweight American companies compared to European companies at a rarely seen mark. The last time such a pattern was observed was in the aftermath of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/european-debt-crisis">European debt crisis</a> in the early 2010s.</figcaption></figure>
Meanwhile, the valuations of American companies are several standard deviations higher than European equities, <a href="https://x.com/porterstansb/status/1863619200037634296">according</a> to Bank of America.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The last time U.S. stocks were this overvalued versus the rest of the world was&#8230; well, never. <a href="https://t.co/tozSaNizrp">pic.twitter.com/tozSaNizrp</a>
&mdash; Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) <a href="https://twitter.com/porterstansb/status/1863619200037634296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 2, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">American exceptionalism in equity pricing has never been higher; positive market sentiment in American companies relative to Europe accelerated in the mid-to-late 2010s and continued to the present day. </figcaption></figure>
Country Data: American companies have yielded hefty gains in recent years. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the 500 largest American companies, added more than 200% to its market value in the past 10 years, an annualized return of nearly 12%.
Meanwhile, European indices — and respective economies — have struggled.
The France-tracking iShares MSCI France ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWQ#NYSE">EWQ</a>) returned 46% in that time period, good for an annualized return of under 4%. The German-tracking iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWG#NYSE">EWG</a>) returned 18%, an annualized return of 1.68%. The Italian iShares MSCI Italy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWI#NYSE">EWI</a>) has returned around 24%, an annualized return of about 2.12%.
Other countries have fared worse. The Britain-tracking iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWU#NYSE">EWU</a>) has shed over 9% since 2014. The Spanish iShares MSCI Spain ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWP#NYSE">EWP</a>) has lost over 12% of its market value in that time span. Both countries&#8217; annualized returns are close to zero percent. 
European Outliers: A few countries have far outperformed the rest of the European continent in recent years.
iShares MSCI Denmark ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDEN#BATS">EDEN</a>) returned over 138% since 2014, an annualized return of over 9%. The Danish economy has apparently benefitted from its exposure to the pharmaceutical industry.
iShares MSCI Ireland ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EIRL#NYSE">EIRL</a>) is up 70% in that period, an annualized return of about 5.43%. Ireland boasts a low corporate tax rate of 12.5% and high levels of foreign investment.
Why it Matters: It is unclear whether the trend of American exceptionalism in equities pricing will continue into the next decade. As their respective economies ease back into moderate economic growth, European countries may benefit from leadership changes.
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Photo: Varavin88 via Shutterstock

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iShares MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund

EIRL

Investors Pour Money Into US Stocks, Shun Europe In Historic Fashion

<a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/legislative-committee-in-ireland-calls-for-marijuana-legalization-and-decriminalization-of-all-illicit-drugs/">https://www.marijuanamoment.net/legislative-committee-in-ireland-calls-for-marijuana-legalization-and-decriminalization-of-all-illicit-drugs/</a>
After lawmakers in Ireland <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/irelands-government-proposes-nine-month-delay-on-marijuana-legalization-bill-vote-calling-for-special-committee/">delayed a vote on marijuana legalization earlier this year</a> in favor of further studying the issue, a special legislative committee on drug policy has published an interim report with nearly 60 recommendations, calling for changes such as the limited legalization of marijuana and the decriminalization of personal use and possession of all illegal drugs.
The new report, released on Tuesday, is the product of the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Drugs Use, which was formed to consider cannabis legalization and other drug policy issues following the release of a <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/as-irish-lawmakers-prepare-to-debate-marijuana-bill-prime-minister-pledges-to-examine-drug-decriminalization-as-recommended-by-citizen-commission/">citizen commission report in January that recommended broadly decriminalizing drugs</a>&nbsp;and implementing harm reduction programs.
Gino Kenny, the chair of the committee and a member of Ireland's lower house of parliament, <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41501180.html">told</a> Irish Examiner that the proposal could allow cannabis clubs where members can purchase small amounts of marijuana grown on a nonprofit basis, which <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/german-officials-approve-countrys-first-marijuana-social-club-since-legalization-took-effect/">some other European countries permit</a>, but may also allow for broader commercial legalization.
"It's important that this is implemented," Kenny told the paper, emphasizing his perspective that the government should adopt a "health-led approach" to drug use.
&nbsp;
Indeed, many of the 59 recommendations from the special committee focus on shifting the paradigm around drug control from one of punishment and stigma to one of health and harm reduction. That's the core of the first six recommendations laid out in the committee's description of its interim report, which includes findings that "the stigmatisation of drug use and the shaming of drug users are a source of significant harm" and that "the goal of drug policy should be to reduce harm and eliminate stigma."
To that end, it says, "the decriminalization of possession for personal use should apply equally to all illicit drugs." And while "people should be offered all supports and health resources that are required," it adds, "no person should be criminalised for not availing of a supportive intervention."
When it comes to marijuana, the committee is calling on health and justice officials to "undertake a body of research into how a regulated drug market could operate in Ireland beginning with cannabis, and how Ireland can incorporate and implement the learnings of other jurisdictions that have taken positive steps in this regard."
The report specifies that the country should consider reforms "with particular reference to Spain, Malta, and Germany in the development of an Irish not for profit regulated cannabis market."
The body is also calling for expansion of the country's medical marijuana program "to ensure that more people affected by chronic illness can access cannabis in circumstances where other treatments have failed to relieve symptoms."
The recommendations also advise that local authorities and An Garda Síochána—the country's national police force—"are supported and empowered in strongly discouraging and reducing consumption in public areas." The committee suggested that "specific trauma and harm reduction training be provided to An Garda Síochána and local authorities, to inform their work with individuals and communities affected by drug misuse and addiction."
Kenny, the committee chair, noted that the body's <a href="https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/press-centre/press-releases/20241022-joint-committee-on-drugs-use-publishes-interim-report-with-59-recommendations/">recommendations</a> are "very clear that the supply and sale of drugs should remain illegal" and acknowledged that drugs can cause "huge damage" to individuals, families and communities, especially among already disadvantaged groups. But he said the committee was in broad agreement that criminalizing substances is the wrong approach.
"There's still a lot to look at of course, but between the work done by the Committee and the Citizens' Assembly, it's clear that there is a consensus that criminalising and prosecuting the use of drugs for personal drug use is a waste of money and is very detrimental to anyone convicted," he said in a statement.
After months of study, he added, "there's no excuse for a new Government to say that issues around the decriminalisation of drugs for personal use haven't been discussed properly. Both the Citizens' Assembly and the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Drugs Use have looked at the issue in detail."
When the committee was first being formed, Ryan McHale, executive committee member of the Irish drug policy reform organization Crainn, told Marijuana Moment that he felt the extra step was a "delay tactic from the Irish Government," which he called "disappointing given the clear calls from the Citizens' Assembly and overwhelming public support for the measure."
"The government are aware of the overwhelming support which is why they didn't outright oppose the bill like they did in 2013, which was the last attempt to liberalize cannabis laws," McHale said. "While there appears to be a shift from government in terms of changing Ireland's drug laws, they have not yet committed to any substantial legal change."
"This delay will mean that hundreds of people will be criminalized for personal possession of cannabis while the Irish government ponder the political effectiveness of reform," he added. "We cannot wait anymore and the Citizens' Assembly have been clear in their calls for change to the harmful status quo."
TD Paul Murphy said the government's proposed delay is "simply an attempt to kick the can down the road."
"They talk about a health led approach to drugs," he said. "Now it's time to walk the walk."
The cannabis legalization bill from Kenny that prompted the committee's formation was first introduced in 2022.
Ireland's taoiseach—or prime minister—Leo Varadkar <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/as-irish-lawmakers-prepare-to-debate-marijuana-bill-prime-minister-pledges-to-examine-drug-decriminalization-as-recommended-by-citizen-commission/">told lawmakers earlier this year that he agrees prohibition doesn't work</a>, as evidenced by prohibition periods in Ireland that created illicit markets with "impure" alcohol products.
"In my view, drug use and misuse by individuals should be seen primarily as a public health issue and not a criminal justice matter," Varadkar said. "I certainly think that shaming people and blaming people and criminalizing people isn't an effective policy."
The Citizens' Assembly on Drugs Use considered marijuana legalization as part of its work last year, but a <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/irish-citizens-panel-votes-to-recommend-decriminalizing-drug-possession-but-marijuana-legalization-falls-one-vote-short/">recommendation to enact the reform came up short by one vote</a>.
A year ago, the citizens' group posted summaries of 36 policy recommendations online—the culmination of what the body's chair, Paul Reid, called "the most comprehensive, wide-ranging, and representative discussion on all aspects of drugs use and drugs policy that has ever taken place in Ireland."
The group's overarching message, Reid said in a statement at the time, was that lawmakers must "take a much more ambitious and progressive approach to dealing with drugs in Ireland."
"Ultimately, it will be up to the Oireachtas to implement what the Assembly has called for," he said, referring to Ireland's national parliament. "But if they do, this will not only change the national policy and approach, it will also change people's lives. For the better."

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"Legislative Committee In Ireland Calls For Marijuana Legalization And Decriminalization Of 'All Illicit Drugs'" - Marijuana Moment

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Irish Finance Minister Says Not Possible To Comment Yet On Likelihood That Other Countries May Lay Claim To Part Of Apple Back Tax

Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RYAAY#NASDAQ">RYAAY</a>) shares are trading lower after the company reported first-quarter FY25&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/ryanair/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=901&amp;newsid=1844708&amp;culture=en-GB" rel="noreferrer noopener">results</a>.
Revenue&nbsp;fell 1%&nbsp;Y/Y&nbsp;to €3.63 billion. Scheduled&nbsp;revenues declined 6% Y/Y to&nbsp;€2.33 billion, with a 15%&nbsp;Y/Y&nbsp;decrease in average fares to €41.93.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, traffic grew 10%&nbsp;Y/Y&nbsp;to 55.5 million customers in the quarter, with a record 19.3 million passengers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39595403/ryanair-records-solid-traffic-numbers-in-june-details" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported for June earlier this month</a>.
Also, Ancillary revenue rose 10% to&nbsp;€1.30 billion in the quarter. Net profit dipped 46%&nbsp;Y/Y&nbsp;to €360 million.
In USD terms, Ryanair&#8217;s&nbsp;first-quarter EPS&nbsp;stood at $1.69, missing the consensus of&nbsp;$2.86, and sales of&nbsp;$3.904 billion came <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">below the consensus of&nbsp;$4.260 billion</a>.
Operating costs increased 11%&nbsp;Y/Y&nbsp;to €3.26 billion&nbsp;as fuel hedge savings offset higher staff and other costs, which was in part due to The Boeing Company&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) delivery delays.
As of June 30, net cash stood at €1.74 billion,&nbsp;and&nbsp;it&nbsp;had&nbsp;a total fleet of 567 aircraft.&nbsp;
The company&#8217;s fuel needs are around 75% hedged at&nbsp;under $80bbl for FY25 and expects to deliver savings of about €450 million&nbsp;on fuel.
Dividend: Ryanair board of directors proposed a final dividend of&nbsp;€0.178&nbsp;per share, payable after the company&#8217;s AGM in September 2024.
In the quarter, the company repurchased and canceled about 12 million shares for €249 million as part of a €700 million buyback program launched in May 2024.
FY25 Outlook:&nbsp;Ryanair continues to expect traffic to grow by 8% (198 million to 200 million passengers), subject to no worsening Boeing delivery delays.
Ryanair says second-quarter demand is strong, but pricing is weaker than expected. The company now anticipates second-quarter fares to be notably lower than last summer, contrary to the previous expectation of stability or modest increases.
Ryanair states that they have little visibility for the third and fourth quarters and that the fourth quarter will miss the boost from last year&#8217;s early Easter.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares Trust IShares MSCI Ireland ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EIRL#NYSE">EIRL</a>) and&nbsp;Defiance Hotel, Airline, And Cruise ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRUZ#NYSE">CRUZ</a>).
Price Action: RYAAY shares are down 12.8% at $99.70 premarket at the last check Monday.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo via Wikimedia Commons

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Ryanair Shares Plummet on Q1 Miss: Traffic Up, Fares Down & More

Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RYAAY#NASDAQ">RYAAY</a>) reported a record 19.3 million passengers, up 11% Y/Y, in June <a target="_blank" href="https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/ryanair/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=901&amp;newsid=1837894&amp;culture=en-GB" rel="noreferrer noopener">2024</a>.
Also, the company&#8217;s flights were, on average, 95% full (flat Y/Y) in June.
Ryanair carried 18.9 million passengers in May, equaling its previous monthly record, reported Reuters.
In May, the company reported FY24 revenue&nbsp;growth of 25%&nbsp;Y/Y&nbsp;to €13.44 billion, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/05/38923874/whats-going-on-with-european-airline-ryanairs-stock-today" rel="noreferrer noopener">EPS rose to&nbsp;€1.67 from €1.15</a>.
The company expects to grow traffic by 8% (198 million to 200 million passengers), subject to Boeing Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) deliveries returning to&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">contracted levels before year-end</a>.&nbsp;
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via IShares Trust IShares MSCI Ireland ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EIRL#NYSE">EIRL</a>) and Defiance Hotel, Airline, And Cruise ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRUZ#NYSE">CRUZ</a>).
Price Action: RYAAY shares closed lower by 2.08% at $114.02 on Monday.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo via Wikimedia Commons

Ryanair Records Solid Traffic Numbers In June: Details

iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund

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SPOT

Spotify Announces New "My Spotify" Initiative Launching In US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia, And New Zealand; Home Page Banners And Personalized Messages To Reveal Listening Habits Over Coming Weeks

As the first quarter of 2023 is coming to an end, now is an opportune time to assess the stock market performance of different countries.
The U.S. stock market, as represented by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA: SPY), ranks only 22nd in the top performing country ETFs&nbsp;list, posting&nbsp;a quarterly total return of about 6%.
Let&#39;s take a look at the quarterly performance of the best and worst performing country ETFs worldwide.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-etfs" target="_blank">Best Exchange Traded Funds</a>
5 Worst-Performing&nbsp;Country ETFs&nbsp;In Q1 2023
5) iShares MSCI Israel ETF (ARCA: EIS)
<ul>
<li>The major stock market ETF in Israel&nbsp;has fallen 4% in the quarter ending March 2023, ranking as the fifth-worst country ETF so far this year.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The worst contributor to the index performance was Bezeq The Israel Telecommunication ADR&nbsp;(OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/bzqiy#OTC">BZQIY</a>), which fell 30% year to date.</li>
</ul>
4) iShares MSCI UAE ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/uae#NASDAQ">UAE</a>)
<ul>
<li>The iShares MSCI UAE ETF, which seeks to track an index composed of UAE equities, is down 6.7% in Q1 2023 and still trades 25% lower than a year ago.</li>
<li>The worst contributor to the performance of the UAE ETF was First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, down 21% year-to-date, which is traded on&nbsp;the domestic exchange.</li>
</ul>
3) iShares MSCI INDIA&nbsp;ETF (BATS: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/inda#BATS">INDA</a>)
<ul>
<li>The iShares MSCI India&nbsp;ETF&nbsp;slipped 7.2% year to date, ranking as the third-worst country ETF.</li>
<li>Reliance Industries Ltd. (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/rlniy#OTC">RLNIY</a>) was the fund&#39;s poorest contributor, down 13% year to date while accounting for around 10% of its holdings.</li>
</ul>
2) iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tur#NASDAQ">TUR</a>)
<ul>
<li>The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF was the second worst-performing country ETF in Q1 2023, delivering a negative return of 12%. But, the ETF is 63% higher compared to a year ago, mainly due to the currency effect.</li>
<li>The main contributor to the negative performance of the index was Hektas Ticaret T.A.S., which is only traded in the Istanbul Stock Exchange and is down 23% in the quarter.</li>
</ul>
1)&nbsp;VanEck Egypt Index ETF (ARCA: EGPT)
<ul>
<li>The VanEck Egypt Index ETF was the worst-performing country ETF in Q1 2023, returning a negative 16%. The Egyptian stock market is also down 18% from a year ago.</li>
<li>EFG-Hermes Holding SAE GDR&nbsp;(OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/efgzf#OTC">EFGZF</a>) was the main negative contributor to the overall performance, falling 30% year to date.</li>
<li><img alt="" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u1363475/egpt_2023-03-30_20-36-02_a4471.png" style="height:500px; width:100%" /></li>
</ul>
5 Best-Performing&nbsp;Country ETFs&nbsp;In Q1 2023
5)&nbsp;iShares MSCI Germany ETF (ARCA: EWG)
<ul>
<li>The iShares MSCI Germany ETF returned 13% in the quarter, ranking as the fifth best-performing country ETF worldwide.</li>
<li>The main contributor to the positive performance of the fund was SAP SE (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sap#NYSE">SAP</a>), which has risen 19% this quarter.</li>
</ul>
4)&nbsp;iShares MSCI Spain ETF (ARCA: EWP)
<ul>
<li>A fund that tracks the performance of most-capitalized Spanish equities posted a quarterly return of 15.2%.</li>
<li>The main contributors of the performance were the two largest banks in Spain: Banco Santander&nbsp;SA&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/san#NYSE">SAN</a>) up 20.5% year-to-date, and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, SA&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/bbva#NYSE">BBVA</a>), up 15%.</li>
</ul>
3) Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARCA: ARGT)
<ul>
<li>The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF increased by 17.9% in the quarter, thus outperforming significantly compared to SPY, which is likely to have surprised many market analysts given Argentina&#39;s chronic debt crisis.</li>
<li>The best-performing Argentinian stock was MercadoLibre&nbsp;Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meli#NASDAQ">MELI</a>), also known as the &quot;Amazon of South America,&quot;&nbsp;which rose 50% in the quarter and alone added 11 percentage points to the overall ETF performance.</li>
</ul>
2)&nbsp;iShares MSCI Ireland ETF (ARCA: EIRL)
<ul>
<li>The Irish equity market is the second-best performer among global country ETFs, and the first in the European continent, posting an 18% performance in the quarter.</li>
<li>The betting company Flutter Entertainment ADR&nbsp;(OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pdypy#OTC">PDYPY</a>) was the main contributor to the index performance, after rising 27% year to date.</li>
</ul>
1) iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA: EWW)
<ul>
<li>The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF has been the best performing country ETF in 2023, returning 18.2% in the first quarter of the year.</li>
<li>Given its large weight (14%) in the portfolio, American Movil&nbsp;SAB&nbsp;de CV ADR&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amx#NYSE">AMX</a>) was the major contributor to the Mexican stock market&#39;s success, after rising 9% year to date.</li>
</ul>
<img alt="" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u1363475/ewg_2023-03-30_20-38-38_781ef.png" style="height:500px; width:100%" />
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/03/31518782/its-not-tesla-meta-or-nvidia-the-best-performing-large-cap-stock-in-2023-is-a-crypto-play" target="_blank">It&#39;s Not Tesla, Meta Or Nvidia &mdash; The Best Performing Large-Cap Stock In 2023 Is A Crypto Play</a>
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iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund

5 Best And Worst Performing Country ETFs For Q1 2023: A Defaulting Country's Stock Market Beats S&P 500

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-27/uk-eu-seal-post-brexit-deal-on-northern-ireland-trade" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-27/uk-eu-seal-post-brexit-deal-on-northern-ireland-trade">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-27/uk-eu-seal-post-brexit-deal-on-northern-ireland-trade</a>

'UK, EU Seal Post-Brexit Deal On Northern Ireland Trade' - Bloomberg News

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Markets

Irish PM Says Believes There Will be a Deal

The iShares MSCI Ireland ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>), the lone U.S.-listed exchange traded fund dedicated to Irish equities, is up 6.34 percent year-to-date, an impressive performance considering the Brexit backdrop.
With the U.K.&#39;s departure from the European Union looming, some analysts and market observers are assessing the potential impact of Brexit on Irish equities.
<h3>What Happened</h3>
EIRL, which turns nine years old in May, follows the MSCI All Ireland Capped Index and holds 27 stocks. There are concerns that if the U.K. withdraws from the EU without trade agreements in place, including one with Ireland, geopolitical relationships could be damaged.
Prime Minister Teresa May&#39;s recently defeated Brexit agreement included a trade accord with Ireland, but that deal is no longer in play.
&ldquo;But since that framework is no longer on the table, customs checks will be implemented between the Irish neighbors <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/15/wider-chance-of-extending-article-50-after-brexit-vote-analyst-says.html">when Britain leaves the E.U. on March 29</a> &mdash; unless May and British lawmakers delay that deadline or decide on an alternative withdrawal strategy,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/17/former-irish-pm-no-deal-brexit-will-mean-isolation.html">according to CNBC</a>.
<h3>Why It&#39;s Important</h3>
As is to be expected, some Irish sectors are more exposed to Brexit than others and there has been a sharp divergence between the least and most exposed sectors.
&ldquo;A recovery in output enjoyed by firms most exposed to Brexit in 2017 largely failed to continue last year, with the gap in performance between the &#39;most exposed&#39; and &#39;least exposed&#39; sectors becoming much larger, especially in late-2018,&rdquo; IHS Markit said&nbsp;<a href="https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/brexit-exposed-sectors-in-ireland-suffer-as-brexit-approaches.html">in a recent note</a>.
EIRL&#39;s two largest sector weights are almost evenly split between cyclical and defensive groups. The fund&#39;s largest sector allocation is materials at almost 28 percent followed by defensive consumer staples at 26.61 percent.
&ldquo;Although greater than normal, the recent underperformance of the &#39;most exposed&#39; sectors has not been as great as the period immediately following the UK&#39;s 2016 referendum,&rdquo; said Markit. &ldquo;This could be due to efforts by companies to prepare for Brexit, such as by reducing any reliance on UK business.&rdquo;
<h3>What&#39;s Next</h3>
While Ireland is generally seen as prepared for Brexit, investors may need some convincing regarding EIRL. After seeing outflows of $4.32 million last year, the Ireland ETF has not taken in any new assets this year.
&ldquo;The Irish government has released guidelines and undergone detailed preparations for Brexit. The state economic development agency focused on generating export sales (Enterprise Ireland) has a designated webpage for Irish firms seeking information on Brexit,&rdquo; according to Markit.
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Long Ideas

How Brexit Affects The Ireland ETF

Ireland's GDP Could Fall 7% with No-Brexit Deal

Exchange-traded funds providing exposure to European equities have been getting plenty of attention this year. National elections earlier this year in the Netherlands and France, and in Germany in a few days, were among the events turning investors&#39; attention across the Atlantic.
Italy&#39;s efforts at banking reform and political volatility there coupled with Greece&#39;s ongoing austerity efforts and Catalonia&#39;s independence vote in Spain are other events putting Europe stocks and ETFs in the spotlight. All the while, things have been fairly quiet in Ireland.
Markets like quiet. Up nearly 22 percent year to date, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>) confirms as much. EIRL, the only ETF dedicated to Irish equities, hit a record high Thursday.
<h3>Impressive Economic Growth</h3>
Ireland&#39;s steady economic growth is serving as the foundation for EIRL&#39;s impressive year-to-date performance.
&ldquo;The Irish economy grew by 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2017, rebounding from a 2.6 percent contraction in the previous quarter,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-grew-1-4-in-second-quarter-1.3222227">reported The Irish Times</a>. &ldquo;Despite the volatility from quarter to quarter, the latest national accounts show the Irish economy is growing at a healthy 5.8 percent in annual terms.&rdquo;
Related Link: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/09/10083636/ahead-of-german-election-a-small-etf-surges">A Small ETF For A Big European Economy</a>
Ireland&#39;s equity market is small compared to what investors find in the U.K. or major eurozone economies, such as Germany and France. EIRL reflects that diminutive stature, holding just 25 stocks. The ETF&#39;s top two holdings combine for over 37 percent of its weight.
<h3>More Good News</h3>
Additional data points indicate the Irish economy is on firm footing, which could be a sign of more upside to come for EIRL.
&ldquo;Abstracting from the forces that have distorted the national accounts, the Irish economy seems to be doing reasonably well,&rdquo; <a href="http://www.iii.co.uk/alliance-news/1505739534021755800-3/ireland-economy-likely-to-grow-quickly-capital-economics">according to Capital Economics</a>. &ldquo;The upshot is that we continue to expect Ireland&#39;s economy to grow fairly quickly.&rdquo;&nbsp;
EIRL allocates over half its combined weight to the materials and consumer staples sectors. Industrial and consumer discretionary names combine for over 26 percent. The ETF has a three-year standard deviation of 15.1 percent.
Related Link: <a href="http:// https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/09/10083631/brazil-etf-steady-as-petrobras-to-stay-in-government-hands">Good News For Brazil ETFs</a>

Emerald Isle Mints Green For Investors

Among single-country exchange traded funds tracking European economies, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>) often goes overlooked. That&#39;s particularly true this year with investors instead focusing on the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/01/8903231/netherlands-etf-not-yet-reflecting-political-risks"> many Eurozone nations</a> where potentially market-moving national elections are scheduled to take place.
Still, the lone ETF dedicated to Irish equities is up almost 6.4 percent year-to-date, indicating the ETF is dealing with post-Brexit life with aplomb.
The stunning Brexit decision only contributed to an already rough environment for EIRL and Irish stocks, which isn&#39;t surprising given Ireland&#39;s vital trade relationship with Great Britain. Potentially boding well for EIRL and Irish stocks going forward is a recent spate of solid economic data out of the emerald isle.
EIRL, which is home to $64.1 million in assets under management, tracks the MSCI All Ireland Capped Index and holds 25 stocks. Some economic data points suggest Ireland&#39;s economy remains on firm ground.
&ldquo;However, the final months of 2016 and the start of 2017 have seen rates of expansion return to the strong levels seen prior to the UK&rsquo;s referendum,&rdquo; Markit said <a href="http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/13032017-Economics-Irish-economy-recovers-from-last-year-s-Brexit-vote-shock-but-worries-remain">in a recent note</a>. &ldquo;New orders rose substantially in each of the manufacturing, services and construction sectors in February, with the rate of growth only fractionally down on January&rsquo;s one-year high. This fed through to further increases in output across all of the three sectors, and encouraged firms to continue to take on extra staff.&rdquo;&nbsp;
While it&#39;s logical to expect that a single-country ETF will perform well ahead of or in conjunction with the underlying country&#39;s economy, the cyclical nature of EIRL&#39;s lineup underscores the point that the ETF should do well as Ireland thrives and likewise be potentially vulnerable if the Irish economy sags. EIRL allocates over 41 percent of its combined weight to cyclical materials and industrial stocks.
Data indicate EIRL&#39;s manufacturing exposure is a theme investors should closely monitor going forward.
&ldquo;Manufacturers are also less bullish around investment decisions going forward, given current levels of uncertainty,&rdquo; said Markit. &ldquo;Manufacturing sentiment regarding both employment and capital expenditure is at a four-year low, while a net balance of just +8% of manufacturers expect to raise R&amp;D spending over the coming 12 months. Meanwhile, service providers are more upbeat regarding staffing levels and capex than they were in October.&rdquo;

Risks And Rewards With The Ireland ETF

As recently as last year, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (iShares MSCI Irld Cp Invstb Mrkt Indx Fd (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>)) was a leader among single-country Europe exchange-traded funds, posting a 2015 gain of nearly 23 percent. That was by far the best showing among the ETFs tracking PIIGS economies.
<h3>A Different Scéilín</h3>
This year is a different story, as nearly all Europe ETFs are struggling. EIRL, the lone Ireland ETF has not been immune to those woes as highlighted by a year-to-date loss of 5.7 percent. Among the PIIGS ETFs, EIRL is still easily outpacing its Greece and Italy counterparts.
The stunning Brexit decision in June only contributed to an already rough environment for EIRL and Irish stocks, which is not surprising given Ireland&#39;s vital trade relationship with Great Britain. Potentially boding well for EIRL and Irish stocks going forward is a recent spate of solid economic data out of the emerald isle.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/09/8449710/south-korea-etf-sort-of-endures-samsung-slide">South Korea ETF Sort Of Endures Samsung Slide</a></bzrelatedlink>
&ldquo;Meanwhile, consumer spending also looks to have continued on an upward trajectory despite an initial hit to confidence following the surprise vote result. With the UK government set to wait until sometime in 2017 to trigger Article 50, the immediate impacts of the vote will likely dissipate over the rest of this year, but longer-term uncertainty remains,&rdquo; said Markit<a href="http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/12092016-Economics-Irish-economy-continues-to-grow-following-Brexit-vote-but-longer-term-uncertainty-remains"> in a recent note</a>.&nbsp;
<h3>Irish Resiliency</h3>
Although EIRL still labors below its pre-Brexit highs, the ETF has tacked nearly 17 percent since the Brexit decision was announced. Additional good news for the ETF comes in the form of its low allocation to financial services stocks, currently a plus when it comes <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/09/8444445/reconsidering-europe-etfs">to single-country Eurozone ETFs</a>.
EIRL allocates just 7.3 percent of its weight to bank stocks, making that the ETF&#39;s seventh-largest sector allocation.
&ldquo;After having eased to a near two-and-a-half year low in July, the rate of expansion in services business activity quickened fractionally in August. However, new orders rose at the weakest pace since early-2014 in a sign that companies may be operating in a more difficult environment for securing new work,&rdquo; added Markit. &ldquo;Construction, meanwhile, continued to record strong rises in activity and new business in August as the sector&rsquo;s recovery was sustained. A special one-off question added to the August survey indicated that most customers expect Brexit to have no impact on activity over the coming year.&rdquo;
EIRL is levered to those themes with a combined weight of over 37 percent to the materials and industrial sectors.
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Irish Eyes Could Smile Again For This ETF

Prior to the Brexit decision, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>), the lone exchange traded fund dedicated to Irish equities, was struggling. Along comes the Brexit stunner and EIRL was among the many Europe single-country ETFs that sank more than 10 percent last Friday.

	Even after rebounding the past couple of sessions, EIRL is still saddled with a year-to-date loss of over 15 percent. However, if this week&#39;s market action is any indication, investors are quickly getting over the Brexit shock, a scenario that could be creating opportunity with ETFs tracking some of the sturdier European nations. Additionally, flows data suggest investors are using Brexit to scoop up some single-country Europe ETFs, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8164009/its-not-all-about-departures-from-europe-etfs">not sell these funds</a>.&nbsp;

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8164009/its-not-all-about-departures-from-europe-etfs">It&#39;s Not All About Departures From Europe ETFs</a></bzrelatedlink>

	Still, EIRL has the potential to be a good news/bad news play for investors. Geography indicates Ireland&#39;s economy has significant Brexit exposure.

	&ldquo;Ireland&#39;s economy is highly exposed to Brexit. According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the UK accounted for 12.6% of Ireland&#39;s total goods exports in January-April 2016, and 24% of total goods imports. The UK also accounted for 20% of total services exports in 2014. Total goods and services exports to the UK are equivalent to around 17% of GDP. There could be significant sector-specific fall out. For example, the UK accounts for 49% of Irish agricultural exports,&rdquo; said <a href="http:// https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pressrelease?id=1008098">Fitch Ratings</a>.

	As it pertains to EIRL, the ETF is really a two sector pony as materials and consumer staples combine for over 53 percent of the fund&#39;s weight. So it&#39;s possible one or both of those groups remain sturdy in the face of Brexit, which could allow EIRL to do the same. That&#39;s a stretch, but not impossible.

	EIRL allocates 12.5 percent of its weight to financial services, a group almost universally viewed as vulnerable in Brexit&#39;s wake. That is EIRL&#39;s fourth-largest sector exposure. EIRL has a three-year standard deviation of 15.5 percent.

	&ldquo;Our upgrade of Ireland to &#39;A&#39; from &#39;A-&#39; in February reflected the marked fall in government debt to 93.8% of GDP in 2015 from 120% in 2013 driven by strong and broad-based growth and fiscal consolidation. While negative, Brexit is unlikely to undermine the progress that Ireland has made in these areas. Fitch expects debt/GDP to fall in the medium term, helped in part by lower nominal interest rates,&rdquo; adds Fitch.

Short Ideas

Irish Eyes Aren't Smiling About Brexit

Last year, the iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>) got the bulk of the positive attention afforded to exchange traded funds tracking the PIIGS economies and deservedly so. EIRL, the lone Ireland ETF, surged nearly 23 percent.

	None of the other four single-country ETFs tracking PIIGS nations were even in EIRL&#39;s ballpark in terms of 2015 performance. Actually, just one of those four managed to finish the year higher. That honor goes to the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewi#NYSE">EWI</a>), which climbed 3.1 percent last year. Now, some analysts think the Italian economy, the Eurozone&#39;s third-largest, is primed to continue recovering this year and that Italy could be a better bet than Spain.

	&quot;In the last quarter of 2015, ETFs with equity exposure to Spain saw $362m of consecutive outflows occur. This was while ETFs with equity exposure to Italy, despite a large outflow of $190m in December, had net inflows of $167m over the same period,&quot; said Markit <a href="http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/07012016-Equities-Fog-in-Spain-as-Italy-kicks-it-up-a-gear">in a recent note</a>. &quot;Investors who followed this rotation would have already benefited, even just two weeks into the year. While both regions have fallen along with global markets, Spanish equities have underperformed by 1.9% year to date compared to the Italian Index.&quot;

	Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/01/6137868/good-money-keeps-following-bad-with-oil-etfs">Good Money Keeps Following Bad With Oil ETFs</a>

	Inflows to Italy ETFs are noteworthy, but it must be noted EWI is far from a free lunch. In the seven-year period ending 2015, the largest Italy ETF rose on an annual basis just four times. EWI&#39;s <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239664/EWI">three-year standard deviation</a> of 20.4 percent means the Italy ETF is slightly more volatile than its Spain counterpart and nearly 500 basis points more volatile than the iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (NSYE: EZU).

	Additionally, EWI is levered to changes in oil prices by way of its 11.7 percent weight to Eni SpA (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/e#NYSE">E</a>), the ETF&#39;s second-largest holding. Overall, energy is EWI&#39;s third-largest sector allocation at 15 percent with financial services and utilities combining for over 56 percent of the fund&#39;s weight.

	For EWI&#39;s primary Spain rival, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewp#NYSE">EWP</a>), a potential catalyst for upside exists: Short covering of Spanish stocks.

	&quot;Average short interest for constituents of the Spanish IBEX Index spiked higher during 2015, reaching a high of 3.3% and is currently hovering near 3.0%,&quot; according to Markit.

	EWP is down nearly 15 percent over the past year while EWI is higher by 2.1 percent over that period.

A Promising PIIGS ETF

First of all, I want to say that the purpose of this post is not to make predictions about the future, so if you&rsquo;re expecting a 12-month price target for the S&amp;P 500, you&rsquo;ll want to look elsewhere.

	Throughout this exercise I used the weight of evidence present in markets around the globe in order to identify some market themes that I think will occur throughout 2016. Lastly, I want to say that none of these market themes are set in stone. As a market participant, I&rsquo;m not here to be right/wrong, if/when the weight of evidence changes I&rsquo;ll adjust.

	Without further adieu, here are the nine market themes for 2016.

	1. Developed &gt; Emerging Markets

	Since the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) / iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EEM) and Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA:VEA) / Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fd (NYSEARCA:VWO) ratios bottomed in 2011, they&rsquo;ve been on a complete tear, representing the broad outperformance of stocks in developed markets over emerging markets. These ratios developed multi-year bases and the breakouts from them were quite explosive. Despite their aggressive rallies, there is little evidence that suggests they&rsquo;re ending anytime soon. There is evidence however, that their progress may be due for a bit of a pause in 2016.

	The SPY / EEM ratio is approaching the 38.2% retracement of the 2000-2010 decline, which also corresponds with prior support near 6.7. In addition, momentum has negatively diverged at the recent highs, which has preceded pullbacks or consolidation periods in the past. Structurally this uptrend looks great, but we may see some consolidation this year before it breaks out to new highs.

	Similar action is occuring in VEA / VWO as it approaches the highs it made in 2008. Despite the strong structural uptrend, momentum recently diverged as the ratio made new highs, suggesting a pause may be needed. Our structural target remains the 2008 highs, which also corresponds with the 161.8% extension of the 2014 correction. Despite this continued outperformance, I&rsquo;d expect to see some consolidation in this ratio before it makes new highs.

	2. Large-Caps To Outperform

	Over the past decade or so, the ratio of large caps stocks to small caps stocks (SPY / iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:IWM), has been forming a major base and is starting to break out of it. If the ratio can clear 1.80, then 1.95 is the next big level of resistance. If this ratio can eventually get above 1.95 there is room for a lot of potential upside. I&rsquo;m going to continue to watch this chart throughout the year as I think this may be the start of a much larger / longer-term trend. And this could be one of the major market themes for this year and perhaps years to come.

	3. Commodities As a Group Will Continue To Slump

	This doesn&rsquo;t necessarily mean another big down year for the group, it could very well mean a flat year. Many of these markets in strong structural downtrends or trendless markets, meaning that time will be needed for them to reverse / sustainable uptrends to develop. That doesn&rsquo;t mean that there won&rsquo;t be counter-trend / mean reversion opportunities to take advantage of over the year, but it does mean that we shouldn&rsquo;t be expecting strong multi-year downtrends to reverse themselves in a relatively short period. Time heals all wounds, even in markets, but we have to be patient to allow sustainable trend reversals to take place.

	A good example of this is Crude Oil. Many commodity charts have been more or less crashing below downward sloping 200 day moving averages for years. Sure, some counter-trend opportunities presented themselves in 2015, but the structural trend is still in place and will take weeks / months / years for these trends to change.4. US Markets Will Continue To Frustrate On An Absolute Basis

	One of the emerging market themes of 2015 and likely 2016? A change in year doesn&rsquo;t do anything to change the fact that many of the Major U.S. Stock Market Indices and Sectors are riddled with flat 200 day moving averages. Until we see some consolidation in one direction or another to allow the slope of these moving averages to become decisively positive or negative, prices will likely stay stuck in a choppy range.

	Micro-Caps, Small-Caps, and Mid-Caps, as well as the Transports and other important measures of risk appetite are trading below downward sloping 200 day moving averages, so that may indicate that the other indexes will follow their deteriorating breadth and resolve to the downside. We could also see sector rotation drive market breadth and the indices to new highs; nobody knows. Regardless of how these ranges resolve, the underlying catalyst is going to be time. Time is needed for the long term moving average to begin sloping in one direction or another to support a sustainable trend.5. The Long End of The Curve May Finally Begin To Rise

	Now I know that everyone on the street has been expecting this to be one of the major market themes just about every year since the turn of the decade.. but I think market conditions are finally at a point that would support higher interest rates. Throughout 2015 we saw yields on the short end of the curve hit multi-year highs, but the long end of the curve was pretty much rangebound.

	This action may have seemed lackluster on the surface, but the consolidation toward the top of its recent range allowed for both the 200 week and day moving averages to flatten out and begin rising, which could support higher prices. The other positive is that we&rsquo;re retesting the downtrend line from the &rsquo;07 highs more and more frequently, and the more a level is tested, the higher likelihood it is to break. With momentum improving and the longer term moving averages sloping higher, prices may be able to stage a sustainable breakout, rather than a failed attempt like we&rsquo;ve seen over the past few years. The prospect of this market theme playing out is worthy of keeping on your radar.

	On a relative basis the Ten-Year Yield / S&amp;P 500 ratio reached a structural downside target at the 261.8% extension of the &rsquo;10 &ndash; &rsquo;11 rally earlier in the year, and has since broken above the downtrend line from the 2013 highs, as well as the 2012 and 2013 lows.

	The Ten-Year Yield remains rangebound between 2.20 and 2.40 and the resolution of that range should determine where it heads next, but I think the weight of evidence on an absolute and relative basis suggests that the likelihood of a breakout is higher than it has ever been in recent years.

	6. Utilities Catch a Bid

	After getting ahead of itself in early 2015, the Dow Jones Utility Average (INDEXDJX:DJU) spent the majority of the year consolidating above the uptrend line from the April 2009 lows, as well as the &rsquo;07 highs. This remains one of the few sectors above its primary uptrend line from the 2009 lows and momentum managed to stay in a bullish range throughout the duration of this correction.

	Additionally, on a relative basis, DJU / SPX continues to hold above multi-year lows and remains above the downtrend line from 2011.

	If price action can continue to improve on an absolute basis to allow the 200 day moving average to begin sloping higher, this market can go substantially higher in 2016. What would confirm this thesis is a breakout above resistance at 610, which would open the door to new all-time highs. And that makes the Utilities one of the more interesting market themes to watch in 2016.

	7. Ireland Will Be a Leading Equity Market

	Perhaps this is one of the market themes that that sounds a bit obscure, but it makes sense when looking around the world for relative strength leaders. Only 8 of the 43 Foreign Equity market ETFs I track were up on the year in 2015, with iShares MSCI Irld CP Invstb Mrkt Indx Fd&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:EIRL) leading the charge, gaining 21%.

	Fortunately, much of those gains took place within the first half of the year, which allowed this market to consolidate near all-time highs before breaking out in the last two weeks of 2015. From a structural perspective the next price target is at the 161.8% extension of the 2014 decline, which represents 15% upside from current prices. The best part about this is the simplicity of the risk management in that we only want to be long this market above the top of the 2015 range at 41.

	There are short-term concerns about a failed breakout on the daily chart given the momentum divergence and bullish consolidation pattern resolving to the downside, but from a structural perspective, I think it&rsquo;s clear that the uptrend and relative strength in EIRL remains intact.

	8. NZD/USD Will Have a Tough Year

	As I reviewed all of the global markets I follow, I noticed that NZD/USD looks like one of the most well defined risk/reward setups in the world right now. Prices have been in a structural downtrend for 1 1/2 years now and recently mean reverted back toward the downtrend line from the 2014 highs. From a structural perspective, this looks like a perfect spot to get short versus.

	On the daily chart it&rsquo;s even more clear why this market is a fade, as prices run into a confluence of resistance at prior support, the downtrend line from the &rsquo;14 highs, and the downward sloping 200 day moving average. Combine that with a negative momentum divergence, and I think the weight of evidence clearly suggests fading this market aggressively.

	There will be tactical downside targets along the way, but the structural target for NZD/USD remains near the &rsquo;09 lows at the 161.8% extension of the 2010-2011 rally. Will this be one of the currency market themes during 2016? Time will tell.

	9. The Grains (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, and Oats) Due For More Downside

	One common market theme across these ag commodities is that they all experienced some consolidation / mean reversion throughout 2015 to allow sentiment to reset, but now look like they&rsquo;re ready to continue lower within their structural downtrends.

	Oats failed to get back above broken support near 280 in the middle of 2015 and have been moving lower ever since. With momentum in a bearish range and prices below downward sloping 200 week and day moving averages, the bias remains to the downside. The next structural downside target lies at the 161.8% extension of the 2013-2014 rally, which corresponds nicely with prior support / resistance near 175-180.

	Soybeans spent a good portion of 2015 trying to regain broken support and clear the downtrend line from the 2014 highs by getting above 925. Unfortunately, prices failed to do that and remain below downward sloping 200 week and day moving averages with momentum in a bearish range. As long as prices are below 925, they remain vulnerable and open to testing their next structural downside target near 665, which represents the 161.8% extension of the 2011-2012 rally, as well as prior support / resistance.

	Wheat has tested the 460 level multiple times during 2015, with each successive rally being weaker and weaker. With prices below their downward sloping 200 week and day moving averages and, momentum in a bearish range, Wheat looks like it will test long term support / resistance in the low 400s at some point.

	Corn experienced some mean reversion in mid-2015 after breaking above the downtrend line that&rsquo;s been intact since 2013, but quickly stalled above prior support and put in a failed breakout in July. With prices below their downward sloping 200 week and day moving averages, and momentum in a bearish range, it looks like Corn will likely test long term support / resistance in the low 300s in 2016.

	As I stated at the top of the post, I&rsquo;m not in the prediction business. These are simply some of the market themes that I&rsquo;ll be looking to take advantage of in 2016 should they play out as the weight of evidence suggests they might.

	As always, if you have any questions feel free to reach out and I&rsquo;ll get back to you as soon as I can.

	This was originally shared on <a href="http://brunicharting.com/">BruniCharting</a>

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9 Market Themes To Watch For The Next 12 Months

Neither the Italian economy, the eurozone&#39;s third largest, nor the country&#39;s equity market have had the pizzazz of the country&#39;s famous automakers and fashion in recent years, but there are signs that Italy could be awakening from a long slumber.

	That could be enough to bring investors to the iShares MSCI Italy Index (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewi#NYSE">EWI</a>), the largest Italy ETF trading in New York.
 As it is, EWI is up 5.3 percent this year, making it the second-best performer among the single-country ETFs tracking PIIGS economies.
Only the iShares MSCI Irld Cp Invstb Mrkt Indx Fd (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eirl#NYSE">EIRL</a>) <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/09/5857050/playing-with-piigs-etfs-that-is">has outperformed EWI</a>.
<h3>Is A Recovery Ahead For EWI?</h3>
However, EWI&#39;s road to full-fledged recovery is unlikely to be bump free. The ETF&#39;s three-year standard deviation of 20.1 percent confirms as much.
By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a three-year standard deviation of <a href="http://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/EEM?referrer=tickerSearch">just 14.1 percent</a>.
 Additionally, a legitimate Italian economic miracle is likely to be more of a slow slog than an overnight miracle.

	&ldquo;The upturn in Italy was in some ways different from what took place in neighboring countries,&rdquo; said <a href="https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/Login.do">Standard &amp; Poor&#39;s</a> in a new research note.
&ldquo;First, it&#39;s been weaker: Real GDP rose 1.2 percent in the eurozone as a whole in the first half of the year (0.7 percent for Italy). Second, the upswing in the eurozone was primarily consumer driven.&rdquo;
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/09/5857050/playing-with-piigs-etfs-that-is">Playing With PIIGS...ETFs That Is</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>Consumer-Driven Recovery And Its Effect On Italy</h3>
In theory, a consumer-driven recovery should have benefited Italy and EWI more as the ETF has an almost 11 percent weight to discretionary stocks.
 However, bad loans are hampering Italian banks and the financial services sector is a significant portion of the Italian equity market&#39;s market value. The sector is 40.1 percent of EWI&#39;s weight, or about two and a half times the ETF&#39;s second-largest sector allocation, utilities.
	&ldquo;The Italian bank sector remains vulnerable and is not in an ideal position to support private investment,&rdquo; said Standard &amp; Poor&#39;s. &ldquo;All categories included &ndash; bad debt, substandard, past due and restructured &ndash; non-performing loans (NPLs) have tripled since 2007 to reach a historical high of 24 percent of GDP in June 2014, or 16.8 percent of total loans.&rdquo;
	Said another way, as S&amp;P noted, Italy&#39;s NPL problem is four times as dire as the European average. Making matters worse is that eight in 10 NPLs are corporate loans, which dampens banks&#39; ability to increase non-financial sector loans.
<h3>Increased Profitability On The Horizon?</h3>
Investors willing to bet on increased profitability for Italian banks, a concept that could take a while to materialize, and an ongoing improvement in the country&#39;s industrial sector (11.7 percent of EWI&#39;s weight), while making a wager against the euro can consider the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Italy ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hewi#NYSE">HEWI</a>).

	HEWI, which debuted June, is essentially EWI with a euro hedge overlay. The ETF has already attracted nearly $94 million in assets under management, making it one of the most successful ETFs to debut this year.

	Another idea is the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Southern Europe Hedged Equity (NYSE: DBSE), also a currency hedged ETF.
	DBSE, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/08/5778012/deutsche-awm-continues-currency-hedged-drive-with-six-new-etf">which debuted last month</a>, is the closest fund on the market today to a true PIIGS ETF.
 Looking a little closer, DBSE is essentially a combination Spain/Italy ETF, as the countries combine for 95 percent of the fund&#39;s weight; however, that country mix could prove advantageous going forward.
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/city-centre-street-milan-italy-705879/">Public Domain</a>

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